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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,141
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:52am Sep 25, 2008 3:52am
brettboz:i do agree with u and not feel good with large candles ,should wait and see what master phillip will say .
saka:i come to china because of CRSC and NORINCO companies invitaion and really dont know wich city is first yet,(i think i'll be in beijing,shanghai and dalian at least)but i think it will be at least 10days.
and about english listening ,i am also poor with it and im working on it .even i listen 2 or even 3 times each sentence of phillips MP3 to understand
  • #17,142
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:35am Sep 25, 2008 5:35am
Hi Saka,

I think you're talking about Phillips MP3s right??
Things kind of came to a bit of a standstill with typing out the MP3s as Tony (Old Dog) who was coordinating things decided to take a break from it. We had decided to continue with the copying where we could and as time permitted. I think this sort of came to nothing as well (for me it did anyway) because it didn't seem like there was a need for it .... people did not seem to be asking for it.
But if people do need these to be able to understand then I'm sure we can get something going again.
If you are out there and you need the typed copies, maybe you can send me a PM so we can see what the demand is.
(Hope this is ok with you Phillip, doing it this way...)
Ben

Quoting saka
Is there any good guy who will help us those who have a poor listening ablilbty for the sake of God
  • #17,143
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:51am Sep 25, 2008 5:51am
Quoting brettboz
E/U is in a similar situation but I'm not so sure about the trades. On the G/U you have a resistance area around 8645 which hasnt really been broken and look at the spike coming off that area on the last hourly candle.
The spikes on both 4H of EUR/USD and GBP/USD look to be turning into CT moves. Also look at 4H divergence on MACD compared to price.

Also the 1H has broken the support which was previously resistance. So this will now turn back into resistance. I might consider shorting on a move back to this resistance.
  • #17,144
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:08am Sep 25, 2008 6:08am
To be honest guys I still dont think there is any rhythm to the market! its in a 171 pip range, lets just wait and let the market show us where it wants to go.
  • #17,145
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:09am Sep 25, 2008 6:09am
Quoting bshadroo
brettboz:i do agree with u and not feel good with large candles ,should wait and see what master phillip will say .
saka:i come to china because of CRSC and NORINCO companies invitaion and really dont know wich city is first yet,(i think i'll be in beijing,shanghai and dalian at least)but i think it will be at least 10days.
and about english listening ,i am also poor with it and im working on it .even i listen 2 or even 3 times each sentence of phillips MP3 to understand
I would like to give something back after benefiting so much from Phillip and the good peeps on this thread. So here's a transcript of Phillip's last mp3, (with very minor ommisions and/or additions). If this works out for most of you with problems hearing the mp3, I am willing to do it again (hope I'm able to work it around my job).

I hope it's not a very bad way of giving back to the community. Tell me how it rates. Cheers!
Attached File(s)
File Type: txt August Downmove.txt   5 KB | 440 downloads
In Pursuit of Pippyness...
  • #17,146
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:26am Sep 25, 2008 6:26am
Quoting welshguy2000
To be honest guys I still dont think there is any rhythm to the market! its in a 171 pip range, lets just wait and let the market show us where it wants to go.
ON G/U I tend to agree with you. On E/U im not so sure. Price came down exactly to the first fib which also happened to be the 21 and bounced straight off it. Exactly as rules predict.

It then retraced that move exactly to the first fib and formed a doji on my 4H. This is now looking like a shooting star.

Obviously the 21 is the next target and if this goes the 200 is very close to the 50% fib retrace of the larger move up.

So far its doing pretty much what I suspect it would but in all the moves the risk / reward has not been there to trade.
  • #17,147
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:30am Sep 25, 2008 6:30am
Quoting brettboz
ON G/U I tend to agree with you. On E/U im not so sure. Price came down exactly to the first fib which also happened to be the 21 and bounced straight off it. Exactly as rules predict.

It then retraced that move exactly to the first fib and formed a doji on my 4H. This is now looking like a shooting star.

Obviously the 21 is the next target and if this goes the 200 is very close to the 50% fib retrace of the larger move up.

So far its doing pretty much what I suspect it would but in all the moves the risk / reward has not been there to trade.
I should also note that if the down move does stop on the E/U then yes it will be completly without rhythm as the G/U seems to be. And then we might as well call it a day because the MA's are going to end up all crossed together soon.
  • #17,148
  • Sep 25, 2008 7:08am Sep 25, 2008 7:08am
Quoting brettboz
I should also note that if the down move does stop on the E/U then yes it will be completly without rhythm as the G/U seems to be. And then we might as well call it a day because the MA's are going to end up all crossed together soon.
Well I think the 21 looks like its been hit so now the question is to whether it holds and we get a new TC or whether it breaks down to 200 and the 50% retrace.
  • #17,149
  • Sep 25, 2008 7:27am Sep 25, 2008 7:27am
I think that price right now is in a very critical range. From the downside it is supported massively by (1) a trendline extending from Sept. 8 (2) the 21 MA (3) 38.2 Fibonacci. Plus, the 200 MA as many have mentioned is very near by. From above it is resisted by another shorter term trendline, and of course the notorious 1.4800 priceline.

I believe it is hard to predict where the breakout will head, but be sure when it happens it will most probably be quite big.

I would say the same about GU, with a tad bit less certainty.
In Pursuit of Pippyness...
  • #17,150
  • Sep 25, 2008 7:48am Sep 25, 2008 7:48am
Hey everyone, back home after travel. Finally looked at the EU chart and saw the nice TC off the 21 on the 4hr with the 1hr showing the same signal. The signal on the 1hr was completed the same time the 4hr bar closed so this wasn't actually an earlier entry on the 1hr but the set-up with the ADX on the 1hr shows what to look for. There are times when the 1hr can get you in a few hours earlier. I'll have to reformat the charts on the website with the ADX added to look back over all of 2007 to see how the entry looks. The info for the 1hr examples is on the website if anyone is interested. I still see some volatility with the credit markets that should spill over to the FX. No trades for me this week, gone too long. We'll see what next week brings.

Roll Tide!
Attached Images
  • #17,151
  • Sep 25, 2008 8:55am Sep 25, 2008 8:55am
I am always fascinated by the success rate by incorporating trend lines and Fibonacci with 4H MACd strategy.
  • #17,152
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:15am Sep 25, 2008 9:15am
Quoting Nigel
I am always fascinated by the success rate by incorporating trend lines and Fibonacci with 4H MACd strategy.
In a way they are self fulfiling, because so many traders watch these levels it has made them all the more important which is why they work.
  • #17,153
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:23am Sep 25, 2008 9:23am
I missed this one on USDJPY, but would have been a perfect trade
2 4h hammers in a row + MACD BoZ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fhgh.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #17,154
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:42am Sep 25, 2008 9:42am
Quoting Deja
I would like to give something back after benefiting so much from Phillip and the good peeps on this thread. So here's a transcript of Phillip's last mp3, (with very minor ommisions and/or additions). If this works out for most of you with problems hearing the mp3, I am willing to do it again (hope I'm able to work it around my job).

I hope it's not a very bad way of giving back to the community. Tell me how it rates. Cheers!
You are the man!
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,155
  • Sep 25, 2008 10:33am Sep 25, 2008 10:33am
I think with hindsight, there may have been a fairly risky CT on G/U today on my charts GMT+2. Let me explain;

First off the is a spike which I think I mentioned earlier in the day right on previous resistance. Then there is divergence between price and MACD. Then there is a round top. The original red MACD CT signal was way too much risk but the 50% retrace of the move gave around 67 pips risk which I could have taken if using a half lot size. Since hitting the 50% retrace price has dropped like a bomb.

My take on it for the moment is that it will reach the first fib retrace at 8379 and then it may come back up to test the resistance in the form of the 21 (which is according to rules - prices moves through and then comes back to MA).

Of course this is like looking into a crystal ball, but who knows.
  • #17,156
  • Sep 25, 2008 10:50am Sep 25, 2008 10:50am
I did two trades today which I find good chances and good entry point at 5min. But because there isn't a MACD signal at 4h, I only dare to enter 1lot with 25 and 35pips traing sl. I do find good entries and low SL, but either of this two trade touched my sl, result in a very poor profit.

First see gu's, I first analysed at 4h, then 1h, and 5min
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-4h.gif Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-1h.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu-5min.gif Size: 30 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,157
  • Sep 25, 2008 10:55am Sep 25, 2008 10:55am
After the gu trade, I find eu had some chance in same anlysis way. I use same mangement with GU, my anticipate is right, but also result in very poor profit.

Just see 4h chart, eu becomes more and more flat and downward, I think 16:00 news which is very bad for dollor is important, and eu will go back to 200sma according to the rhythm.

EU's trade
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-4h.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-1h.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-5min.gif Size: 32 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,158
  • Sep 25, 2008 11:00am Sep 25, 2008 11:00am
I use muti-anlysis to find best entry point and lowest sl, but due to the mangement(only 1lot, trailing sl) and TP setting, I only got a little profit.

So for me, the TP set is big problem, and just have a look at eu now, it rocked down again according 5min rhythm. But I absolutely can't tolarant 40 to 60 trailing sl.

If I use 2lots, 1lot got 25pips first will make sure some porift, but how can I catch some big trend?
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,159
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:33pm Sep 25, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting bshadroo
dear phillip
i'v litssened to ur MP3 and i should say thank you again for ur all good work here ,but i have a question:suppose a person who always enter a trade with 1lot and 30pips stoploss is OK for his account ,so if he need to put a larger stoploss he should decrease his LOT size .for example if he wanna put even 300pips stoploss he can enter with 10k and put 300pips stoploss.but the important point is this:is the probability of trade with a signal candle with 30-40 pips stoploss the same as a candle with 100pips stoploss .before august the huge signal candles usually turend around to the stoploss and they were low probability trades because price reaches to his target with the same candle.is that right?
thx in advance
Yes. Once again you will have to take the high probability trades if there is still room left to the target. Just have a look at the TC signals on the downmove and you could have made pips by reducing the lot size. When the price however turned around it is a totally new ballgame.
That is why I prefer a shortterm strategy with these huge candles.
  • #17,160
  • Sep 25, 2008 8:23pm Sep 25, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting saka
I use muti-anlysis to find best entry point and lowest sl, but due to the mangement(only 1lot, trailing sl) and TP setting, I only got a little profit.

So for me, the TP set is big problem, and just have a look at eu now, it rocked down again according 5min rhythm. But I absolutely can't tolarant 40 to 60 trailing sl.

If I use 2lots, 1lot got 25pips first will make sure some porift, but how can I catch some big trend?
saka:

Remember: If you use the 5min for an entry on the 4hr you are attempting to get in really really early, quicker than the 1hr entry as well. There are times when the 4hr will be setting up for a TC and the 5min gives you an entry and the market (on the 5min) can take off for a quick 20, 30 pips in your direction. But, this can be happening ONLY within maybe the first 30 minutes or so of the 4hr signal that MIGHT have 3 hours to go. That 3 hours is a huge amount of time in the 5min timeframe. Price can still swing either way and your stop can get hit. There are those times when you get in the 5min and the 4hr takes off along with it but, and I hate to say it, luck has a lot to do with being in the right place at the right time. Depending on how much time is left in that 4hr candle, you might have to use a wider stop to let that 4hr candle breathe a little.

Here's a thought; IF the 4hr is setting up for a high probability TC, trade the 5min for that entire 4hr candle. If you go in with 3 lots and the 5min takes off. Take profit on two of those lots and leave the third lot at a 'normal' SL. If it gets stopped out, keep monitoring the 5min fo set-ups BUT ONLY IN THE DIRECTION THAT THE 4HR TC IS TELLING YOU TO GO. Take those 5min trades within that 4hr candle direction and chances are that you will get in very very early. This takes a lot of chart time though....Nice charts!!!

Spealiing of the EU right now, ALL of the moving averages are flat. The budget crisis that Congress is 'supposed' to fix tonight looks like it's breaking apart becuase our politicians are whining at each other as usual. Overniight has the Dow down about 120 points and the SP down about 14. If these talks fall through, stocks are in trouble and the US economy will get even worse. The United States is a great country and I'm proud to be an American, as always, but we're young and still have a lot to learn.

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