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  • #3,721
  • Sep 24, 2008 10:03pm Sep 24, 2008 10:03pm
1.4960 marks the 50% retracement on this last wave, and we've got overall good resistance up here to deal with. Again, watch out for volatility spikes as we're expecting some heavy stuff on the horizon.

I threw this up on the blog and some more stuff for those interested
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  • #3,722
  • Sep 24, 2008 10:08pm Sep 24, 2008 10:08pm
We’re waiting, patiently, through this consolidation over the past few days as the markets look for some key decisions on the US bailout plan. Equity markets and commodities have been drifting lower, pushing USD slightly higher over this time.

We’re expecting a breakout; short term looking lower on EUR/USD and related pairs, USD/JPY pretty much the same. Over the longer haul, however, looking for EUR/USD longs. If the Fed needs to keep cutting rates and the stock market bounces you’ll see the risk-related trades start to pile on again.

But for now, we need to see what happens with the bailout, and/or any other government plans. Market reaction, initially, will view as positive, with impending fears weighing everything down. If the market starts tanking again, and is realized on a global scale, risk related pairs are likely to start tanking right along with it.

My focus as of lately has been on carry pairs because we are in an environment that’s concentrating on risk. These buys and sells have been dictating a lot of what’s going on in the majors. The Fed took out about 30 billion in cash out of the market last night at 1am, trying to keep the current rate as steady as they can. The US is clearly doing everything they can to keep the situation at bay.

Technically speaking, this current window of time is a good time to play bounces in line with any trends. The basics hold true as always; I’ll post what I can and when I can, but in the meantime, stick to the fundamentals; they’ve been working well in this market lately.

Also, this time of consolidation has me thinking a lot about trading volatility. I realize most of you are solely spot FX traders, but good money can be made during downtimes like this trading options. I’m putting together a little lesson plan that can help out with this and will let you know when its finished.
  • #3,723
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:49am Sep 25, 2008 1:49am
Hello,

I've been reading with great interest this thread for a while and have learned a lot. Thanks to all who have contributed, especially to BRV for his work and teaching.

BRV- I've subscribed to your e-mail notifications from your blog in 2 occasions now and I am not getting any messages. Is this functionality working? How often are the e-mails sent out and when was the last one sent?

Thanks so much.
  • #3,724
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:01am Sep 25, 2008 2:01am
Not to be the master of hindsight here but lots of bidding coming out of Asia for EUR/USD and others. EUR 1.4850 area could bring in a fade opportunity but for now the market looking to the long side - daily conditions oversold on a lot of indicators though, and we're overall still in consolidation.

Reports of sizable call options coming in from dealers tonight on EUR, GBP, etc and lots of naked exposure at 1.4700, where sentiment would of course move higher, into the 48-4850 area.

Im scrambling for safe trades here but they're tough when things are so chopped up. So the sentiment is there for the time being.

IFR wants to see 1.4910 on EUR get hit. Personally I dont think downside risk is over with yet, but we'll see. Not afraid to fade this move up tonight for scalps/longer term holds.

Im looking for clues on other pairs but really not finding a lot of hard bias out there in general. If anything its looking lower on most pairs right now (long the dollar),

Pipeye's call he posted earlier seemed to be the best one to grab onto today.
  • #3,725
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:04am Sep 25, 2008 2:04am
Quoting linalm
Hello,

I've been reading with great interest this thread for a while and have learned a lot. Thanks to all who have contributed, especially to BRV for his work and teaching.

BRV- I've subscribed to your e-mail notifications from your blog in 2 occasions now and I am not getting any messages. Is this functionality working? How often are the e-mails sent out and when was the last one sent?

Thanks so much.
Thanks linalm. should be. just sent out one earlier tonight. maybe you need to confirm to the email sent by feedblitz? I know there are a few out there that have yet to do that. either way you can pm it to me I can get it on there for you.
  • #3,726
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:14am Sep 25, 2008 2:14am
.
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  • #3,727
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:16am Sep 25, 2008 2:16am
.
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  • #3,728
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:18am Sep 25, 2008 2:18am
OK, BRV. I just sent you a PM with my information. I did confirm my e-mail address earlier today and for some reason I didn't get your messages from tonight.

Thanks in advance for your help.
  • #3,729
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:23am Sep 25, 2008 2:23am
Quoting xxxxx
Hi Steve,

I have noticed that many pro traders use the bar charts rather than candles (including you, based on your posts).

As a newcomer to this industry I have obviously been down many avenues as far as books, webinars, courses etc.., and they all use the candles.

I assume that you have come to the conclusion that bar chart view may give you a clearer picture of the real price action ... I would appreciate your reasons why you use the bar charts and not candles as this view of a chart is something I have only just started looking at.

Thanks,
I think it becomes a matter of what you get conditioned to. For me, my first major delves in learning to trade came from Tom DeMark and Joe Ross. Both use price bars. Also, I like to see opens, closes, etc, clearly and never discount highs or lows.

I saw a training video one time where this guy used candles to draw his fib extensions. He was drawing the fib extensions using only the bodies of the candles, saying that the "wick" of the candle was insignificant because price rejected it. This is a BAD practice, especially trading FX, which is so technically based.....

Also at the fund I worked at I know few of them looked at candles, so that more or less weighed on me. Candlestick patterns have a so-so success rate in general and anything important (hourly pin bars, etc) can be just as easily seen on OHLC bars. But its just what you get used to I think....a chart is a chart and price is still price.
  • #3,730
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:58am Sep 25, 2008 2:58am
Hi,

Whilst we are looking at different charting styles here is something which i find myself using more and more. Now I know many of you are looking for the cup formations along with U and v patterns near S+R levels like the ones that just cropped up on the Eur/usd and cable about an hour ago.

Try putting a line chart up and I think you'll find these patterns are easier to recognize .The trick for me is to wait for the formation to almost complete on a line chart before switching back to a bar chart which gives a clearer picture of where the highs or lows are for my entries.

Thr M and W formations that Iron Man regualry mentions are also clear as a bell using these charts and also a bit easier to define.
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  • #3,731
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:06am Sep 25, 2008 3:06am
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  • #3,732
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:01am Sep 25, 2008 4:01am
My first post on this thread, just to say hi and thank you for all you're doing for people like me. I have been trying to find my way for quite some time, I've been dancing around from one system to another, various combinations of indicators, softwares etc etc.... They all miserably failed over time !

Now I know my way of trading is S&R. I've been learning about it for the last year or so but there are still things not quite right in my approach. Most of them are mental and psychological issues, which is the hardest part to master in my opinion.

I still use a couple of indicators to support my entries at key levels, and also to pinpoint entries on smaller TFs but one day I will be able to trade naked because I know, that with more experience and chart time, I will be able to see with my own eyes what I now use indicators for.

I have subscribed to your newsletter and am looking forward to keep learning (a never ending road this learning stuff ) and, maybe one day, I will also be able to share.

Thanks again BRV, I finally feel at home.

The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,733
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:09am Sep 25, 2008 4:09am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
yeah they're having server issues tonight (feedblitz - they run the subscription list) - but theyre one of the top 3 and are really good normally. I dont want to change it because Ive got everyone else stored in there now I think they might need a day to get their stuff together - sorry for that - maybe check on it tomorrow - but it works normally Ive been getting them fine up until tonight - keep you posted
BRV,

Just letting you know that I have completed the registration process successfully now (I think ).

Thanks,
  • #3,734
  • Edited 5:02am Sep 25, 2008 4:35am | Edited 5:02am
We have to listen to people who have NO CLUE what they're talking about.

Just pass the $700bb already! This is what happens when the press gets so big it trickles to the lady that works at the local starbucks.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/...und/index.html
  • #3,735
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:29am Sep 25, 2008 5:29am
Quoting hornet
My first post on this thread, just to say hi and thank you for all you're doing for people like me. I have been trying to find my way for quite some time, I've been dancing around from one system to another, various combinations of indicators, softwares etc etc.... They all miserably failed over time !

Now I know my way of trading is S&R. I've been learning about it for the last year or so but there are still things not quite right in my approach. Most of them are mental and psychological issues, which is the hardest part to master in my opinion.

I still use a couple of indicators to support my entries at key levels, and also to pinpoint entries on smaller TFs but one day I will be able to trade naked because I know, that with more experience and chart time, I will be able to see with my own eyes what I now use indicators for.

I have subscribed to your newsletter and am looking forward to keep learning (a never ending road this learning stuff ) and, maybe one day, I will also be able to share.

Thanks again BRV, I finally feel at home.

I second your comments entirely... feeling 'at home' safe from all the sharks who want to take our money - a great feeling :-)

Thanks BRV .... you ARE THE MAN !!

The blog is getting to be really impressive now.
  • #3,736
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:41am Sep 25, 2008 5:41am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
We have to listen to people who have NO CLUE what they're talking about.

Just pass the $700bb already! This is what happens when the press gets so big it trickles to the lady that works at the local starbucks.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/...und/index.html

Democracy bites, suddenly everyone's an expert and everyone has a right to share their worthless opinion. The optimum situation would be a selfless despot in mine. They'd just get on with it, regardless what the great unwashed thought about it. What's another trillion on the national debt, it's not like the US will ever pay it off anyway.

I was watching one of these trash US news programs the other day and they began interviewing a 16 year old, acne-ridden, brace mouthed, teenage girl about the credit crisis - who gives a shit what she thinks? Not I, sir. That isn't news, it's this 'what's happening to the little guy' cutesy human aspect angle that is popular these days.


Well now, after that little tirade I ought to post a chart or something. A few shapes and lines on EJ should cover it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,737
  • Sep 25, 2008 5:57am Sep 25, 2008 5:57am
Quoting birdt
Democracy bites, suddenly everyone's an expert and everyone has a right to share their worthless opinion. The optimum situation would be a selfless despot in mine. They'd just get on with it, regardless what the great unwashed thought about it. What's another trillion on the national debt, it's not like the US will ever pay it off anyway.

I was watching one of these trash US news programs the other day and they began interviewing a 16 year old, acne-ridden, brace mouthed, teenage girl about the credit crisis - who gives a shit what she thinks? Not I, sir. That isn't news, it's this 'what's happening to the little guy' cutesy human aspect angle that is popular these days.


Well now, after that little tirade I ought to post a chart or something. A few shapes and lines on EJ should cover it.
Well said birdt !

PS - Any chance of posting the little indicator on top right of that screen shot ? The one I use similar to it takes up most of the chart ;-)
  • #3,738
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:03am Sep 25, 2008 6:03am
Here you go Willow. You can alter the size and position of the text etc., through the indicator options.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 #Signal_Bars_v7.ex4   43 KB | 552 downloads
  • #3,739
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:45am Sep 25, 2008 6:45am
Quoting birdt
Democracy bites, suddenly everyone's an expert and everyone has a right to share their worthless opinion. The optimum situation would be a selfless despot in mine. They'd just get on with it, regardless what the great unwashed thought about it. What's another trillion on the national debt, it's not like the US will ever pay it off anyway.

I was watching one of these trash US news programs the other day and they began interviewing a 16 year old, acne-ridden, brace mouthed, teenage girl about the credit crisis - who gives a shit what she thinks? Not I, sir. That isn't news, it's this 'what's happening to the little guy' cutesy human aspect angle that is popular these days.


Well now, after that little tirade I ought to post a chart or something. A few shapes and lines on EJ should cover it.
hahah Youre gonna make me cry from laughing here.....and nice chart
  • #3,740
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:52am Sep 25, 2008 6:52am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
We’re waiting, patiently, through this consolidation over the past few days as the markets look for some key decisions on the US bailout plan. Equity markets and commodities have been drifting lower, pushing USD slightly higher over this time.

We’re expecting a breakout; short term looking lower on EUR/USD and related pairs, USD/JPY pretty much the same. Over the longer haul, however, looking for EUR/USD longs. If the Fed needs to keep cutting rates and the stock market bounces you’ll see the risk-related trades start to pile on again.

But for now, we need to see what happens with the bailout, and/or any other government plans. Market reaction, initially, will view as positive, with impending fears weighing everything down. If the market starts tanking again, and is realized on a global scale, risk related pairs are likely to start tanking right along with it.

My focus as of lately has been on carry pairs because we are in an environment that’s concentrating on risk. These buys and sells have been dictating a lot of what’s going on in the majors. The Fed took out about 30 billion in cash out of the market last night at 1am, trying to keep the current rate as steady as they can. The US is clearly doing everything they can to keep the situation at bay.

Technically speaking, this current window of time is a good time to play bounces in line with any trends. The basics hold true as always; I’ll post what I can and when I can, but in the meantime, stick to the fundamentals; they’ve been working well in this market lately.

Also, this time of consolidation has me thinking a lot about trading volatility. I realize most of you are solely spot FX traders, but good money can be made during downtimes like this trading options. I’m putting together a little lesson plan that can help out with this and will let you know when its finished.
As you've said the JPY crosses seem to be driving the market since this crisis peaked. Upon approval I expect the crosses to rocket up and bring the USD pairs most linked with the JPY crosses (like EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD) up with them. Then I expect those pairs to drop hard in USD recovery. I'm using the response to the GSE takeover from the beginning of the month as my model, and a similar response happened with AIG and its bailout. I have no idea who will win this tug of war between the USD pairs and the JPY crosses, but I don't see how it can avoid that similar volatility with the equity markets being so highly involved.

Does that make sense?
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