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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,901
  • Sep 24, 2008 11:17pm Sep 24, 2008 11:17pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Attached GBP/JPY D1 TF..
Should u wait a while longer...for clearer setup..??

Sonic
Very wise advise sonic.

I should have stated that I entered a small position as before. If Price moves in my direction I'll add to it. If Price moves against me the loss is small.

I very rarely enter a full position on a PA set-up. But will add to the position on confirmed retrace after a breakout, Resistence turning into Support, other Price Action confirmation i.e. BUOB on the weekly, etc. (DIBS trade I will take full positions).

Losses small, profits Big. (repeat)
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,902
  • Sep 24, 2008 11:54pm Sep 24, 2008 11:54pm
Quoting mbqb11
I have it like this for my watchlist

-Mike

How abt these Mike...
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I believe . . .
  • #13,903
  • Sep 25, 2008 12:06am Sep 25, 2008 12:06am
Quoting ghous
How abt these Mike...
Hey ghous those patterns aren't quite complete/large enough for me on those timeframes, and don't quite fit as nice on the hrly so I would pass on them. Of course that is just personally could work out great.

Here is another on my list

Take care

Mike
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  • #13,904
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:33am Sep 25, 2008 1:33am
It's amazing how "sticky" a good PPZ could be. The one on the chart dates back to April 2007 (sorry you cannot see it that far on a smaller chart). The price was glued to it for two days.
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,905
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:40am Sep 25, 2008 2:40am
unlv_tj, thank you for the additional info on the way Ryanmcd trades.

Ryan, sorry for using your nick to label the trade, I didn't want to imply that was the way you'd trade it. Thank you for the comments on that trade. As for Fibos, I don't think it's a BS. Fibos work not because they are magic or because Fibo was a clever guy; they work for one simple reason (the same one why PPZ works too) - many traders at big banks and hedge fund use them. As they largerly dictate where the price goes and where it pauses, Fibos are some of the reference points they use. Have a look at "New Mouteki (Fibo)" spread - sometimes his Fibo zones are accurate TO THE PIP (on a 987pips move).

Jason, I agree with your math. However, it doesn't take into consideration RR and the following scenario. E.g. if I risk 6% with RR3 and have 4 winning trades to start with. My a/c is up by 94%. If I then lose 48%, I am back to my original amount.

Swami S, happy birthday! As for M5 - I used to say the same ("insanity"). I agree with James16 gang that higher TFs (H4+) are more reliable etc. Yet I know successful traders who have been scalping M1 for a living (and a good one) for years. Many pro futures traders do it. You simply have to know what you are doing, there are good rules for M1/M5 too. Besides, FX market is fractal, most principles which work on W1 work on M1 too.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,906
  • Sep 25, 2008 2:54am Sep 25, 2008 2:54am
Quoting mbqb11
I have it like this for my watchlist

-Mike
Ug! I guess I jumped the gun a little bit on this one. I must learn patience.

Thank you Mike and Jarroo for the indicators.... periodcon and ej-candletime.
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May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #13,907
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:03am Sep 25, 2008 3:03am
I think there is some misconception with MM and trading a/c.

If a trader has a "trading" capital of $100K and only risks 1% per trade (at RR1), considering that a typical trader is not likely to have more than 10 concurrent open positions where SL is not at B/E, that means risking up to 10% of the total. You need some funds for margin call, but once your posiitions are at B/E you are in a "free" trade.

Let's say the trader grew his a/c 20% to $120K. If he then opens another 10 positions at 1% (roughly 10% of the total), he is risking $12K, i.e. he is NOT risking ANY money from the original amount (which is just sitting there doing nothing). So what is the point of having $100K and calling it "trading capital" if you are not gonna use it all?

If the trader draws down by 20-30%, that's another story. But eventually he would make profit and start growing his a/c - then see the above paragraph. If the traders stays below the initial amount for long, he should be trading in the first place (unless it's a hobby).

I prefer the concept of "risk capital", i.e. the money you are prepared to lose (ALL of it). I don't those who have $100K of "trading" capital and risk 1% of it are prepared to lose $100K.

Then, based on a trading style and objectives, the risk capital can be managed accordingly. I know one trader who start each week with the same amount (i.e. he banks previous week's profit); he know how many trades he is likely to lose (and he is willing to risk, i.e. lose, the whole week's capital), so he calculates risk per trade accordingly. E.g. he would plan for 10 losses in a row (his RR is 2-3) and thus risk 10% per trade.

Anyway, 1% MM rule stems from big banks and hedge funds. They have large amounts which are NOT "risk capital" - if a HF manager draws down by 20-30%, the investors are likely to ask for the remaining funds back and that's the end of his story. Also, if they make 15% a year on that large amount per year, they are happy.

If one has $100K, making 15% (or even 50%) is a joke. Hence, the approach should be different.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,908
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:14am Sep 25, 2008 3:14am
Quoting Forex007

Swami S, happy birthday! As for M5 - I used to say the same ("insanity"). I agree with James16 gang that higher TFs (H4+) are more reliable etc. Yet I know successful traders who have been scalping M1 for a living (and a good one) for years. Many pro futures traders do it. You simply have to know what you are doing, there are good rules for M1/M5 too. Besides, FX market is fractal, most principles which work on W1 work on M1 too.
The insanity is not the 5M its the thought of 5-6% on a single 5M trade.
Your call dude but don't say you were not warned.
Sometimes the best advice is the hardest to take.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #13,909
  • Sep 25, 2008 3:34am Sep 25, 2008 3:34am
Quoting Forex007
unlv_tj, thank you for the additional info on the way Ryanmcd trades.

Ryan, sorry for using your nick to label the trade, I didn't want to imply that was the way you'd trade it. Thank you for the comments on that trade. As for Fibos, I don't think it's a BS. Fibos work not because they are magic or because Fibo was a clever guy; they work for one simple reason (the same one why PPZ works too) - many traders at big banks and hedge fund use them. As they largerly dictate where the price goes and where it pauses, Fibos are some of the reference points they use. Have a look at "New Mouteki (Fibo)" spread - sometimes his Fibo zones are accurate TO THE PIP (on a 987pips move).

Jason, I agree with your math. However, it doesn't take into consideration RR and the following scenario. E.g. if I risk 6% with RR3 and have 4 winning trades to start with. My a/c is up by 94%. If I then lose 48%, I am back to my original amount.

Swami S, happy birthday! As for M5 - I used to say the same ("insanity"). I agree with James16 gang that higher TFs (H4+) are more reliable etc. Yet I know successful traders who have been scalping M1 for a living (and a good one) for years. Many pro futures traders do it. You simply have to know what you are doing, there are good rules for M1/M5 too. Besides, FX market is fractal, most principles which work on W1 work on M1 too.
Hey Forex, man I don't know how else to put it. I am not a great trader by any stretch. I have never doubled my account in a year. The best I ever did was 34% and that was in the bull market of 1999. What I do seem to be good at is staying in the game. If you don't survive you can't win long term.
It was not just my math it was the psychological impact of loosing 50%. The 8 losses was in a row was being kind. Please at least do a moticarlo on it. Or only use money that you don't care if you loose. As for lower time frames , the pa in a fast market works just as good to me. The lower time frame thing that will eat you up is the spread. The math thing again .. I know I know say your risk /target is 10 pip. spread is 1 pip in 1 pip out. 20% go to the broker. say your risk/target is 100 pip. spread is 1 pip in 1 pip out. 2% go to the broker. I'm not saying it can't be done, it can. What I am saying is that is mathmaticaly more difficult and emotionaly more difficult for the majority. Now I'm going to show you what scares me half to death.

This is a daily ib. I took the break short, saw a possable reversal , took the loss, then went long. The trade makes it to the top of the range then flips the sweetest hammer you ever did want to see. I know its a high problitly short for at least 1:1, but its on the 15 min so I wait . This is the hardest part for me, watching your profit melt away to get to the good stuff.
All the best man,

Jason
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May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #13,910
  • Edited 3:45am Sep 25, 2008 3:34am | Edited 3:45am
What kind of training do you get when you join james16 website? Do you learn how to use price action, etc?

i am interested to hear how the site is, and everything i emailed james and no response yet about the program.

Thanks
  • #13,911
  • Edited 4:25am Sep 25, 2008 3:40am | Edited 4:25am
Everything you need guys.

http://img81.imageshack.us/my.php?image=gum5nz8.gif
http://img81.imageshack.us/my.php?image=gum15ib7.gif
  • #13,912
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:44am Sep 25, 2008 4:44am
Quoting goodtiding5
I think the unwinding of the JPY crosses will bring down just about everything.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,913
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:47am Sep 25, 2008 4:47am
Quoting aSandman
I have G/J, U/J, G/U straddled.
Be aware that this could end up with you just being in the same trade twice(Long GJ = Long GBPUSD x Long USDJPY and same for short).
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,914
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:54am Sep 25, 2008 4:54am
Happy(now probably slightly belated) Birthday Swami
May there be many more!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #13,915
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:59am Sep 25, 2008 4:59am
Quoting aSandman
Hey Forex, man I don't know how else to put it. I am not a great trader by any stretch. I have never doubled my account in a year. The best I ever did was 34% and that was in the bull market of 1999. What I do seem to be good at is staying in the game. If you don't survive you can't win long term.
It was not just my math it was the psychological impact of loosing 50%. The 8 losses was in a row was being kind. Please at least do a moticarlo on it. Or only use money that you don't care if you loose. As for lower time frames , the pa in a fast market works just as good to me. The lower time frame thing that will eat you up is the spread. The math thing again .. I know I know say your risk /target is 10 pip. spread is 1 pip in 1 pip out. 20% go to the broker. say your risk/target is 100 pip. spread is 1 pip in 1 pip out. 2% go to the broker. I'm not saying it can't be done, it can. What I am saying is that is mathmaticaly more difficult and emotionaly more difficult for the majority. Now I'm going to show you what scares me half to death.

This is a daily ib. I took the break short, saw a possable reversal , took the loss, then went long. The trade makes it to the top of the range then flips the sweetest hammer you ever did want to see. I know its a high problitly short for at least 1:1, but its on the 15 min so I wait . This is the hardest part for me, watching your profit melt away to get to the good stuff.
All the best man,

Jason

Hi J.
I saw that pb too on the high of yesterday Ib.... i would like to attach my chart and show how i'm looking it.

Note: I already fibbed todays move 'cause it was a nice leg up that inglobed all yesterdays move and the pb signed a start of retracement; so now i'm looking for my entry on a good support that could be a 61%-50% area .... ???? lets see what happens ...

Looking at the monthly chart I'm thinking that this weeks move is going to layout an important support level ...
My plan would be an entry on Pa on those retc of todays move with stoplss on todays low . . if everything folds like i plan then i will be trailing my stops
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  • #13,916
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:18am Sep 25, 2008 6:18am
Quoting giusepp8
Hi J.
I saw that pb too on the high of yesterday Ib.... i would like to attach my chart and show how i'm looking it.

Note: I already fibbed todays move 'cause it was a nice leg up that inglobed all yesterdays move and the pb signed a start of retracement; so now i'm looking for my entry on a good support that could be a 61%-50% area .... ???? lets see what happens ...

Looking at the monthly chart I'm thinking that this weeks move is going to layout an important support level ...
My plan would be an entry on Pa on those retc of todays move with stoplss on todays low . . if everything folds like i plan then i will be trailing my stops

Lets say that this Pb is a little to low than expect, but i want to play it....
(however I want to say that i am demo trading this trade 'cause i Do Not trade lower tf ... only daily.... i pull up a 15 min chart only for pure excitement and to see how it breaths, but who knows maybe someday i will be able to trade it live)
While i was typing the low was taken out while the high is still not triggered ...
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  • #13,917
  • Sep 25, 2008 6:19am Sep 25, 2008 6:19am
Quoting Swami S
The insanity is not the 5M its the thought of 5-6% on a single 5M trade.
It's not "on A single", it's on THE trade which I perceive as a "VERY high probability". Have a look at these charts. In this case, M5 was not enough on it's own, but when you see that PB forming on M15, M30 and H1, you can tell it is VERY likely to play right. Surely, it can turn sour, but I am OK to lose 5-6% on a RR10 trade.
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,918
  • Sep 25, 2008 8:49am Sep 25, 2008 8:49am
Quoting Forex007
It's not "on A single", it's on THE trade which I perceive as a "VERY high probability". Have a look at these charts. In this case, M5 was not enough on it's own, but when you see that PB forming on M15, M30 and H1, you can tell it is VERY likely to play right. Surely, it can turn sour, but I am OK to lose 5-6% on a RR10 trade.

3-6 months before you blow out your account. Maybe sooner if you get a bad run and go tilt.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,919
  • Sep 25, 2008 8:58am Sep 25, 2008 8:58am
Quoting Ryanmcd
3-6 months before you blow out your account. Maybe sooner if you get a bad run and go tilt.
During the last 18 months my account nearly doubled. Read "The Market Wizards", many of those top traders increased their positions significantly when the conditions were "right" (again, "right" for that specific trader - as you said yourself, you don't have any "set in stone" rules as you use discretion a lot).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,920
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:14am Sep 25, 2008 9:14am
Quoting Forex007
During the last 18 months my account nearly doubled. Read "The Market Wizards", many of those top traders increased their positions significantly when the conditions were "right" (again, "right" for that specific trader - as you said yourself, you don't have any "set in stone" rules as you use discretion a lot).
Well you must be better then me, took me 7 years to make my 1st million and lost the 1st 3-4 trading and reading 14hr days fulltime w/o a job.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
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