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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,881
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:25pm Sep 24, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting Forex007
Here's another example of a "Ryanmcd" trade.

To me, the beauty of such setups is their high probability - which means I could increase risk to 5-6%.
I don't know a soft way to say this so I'm just going to say it. If you want to trade for a long time ie 10 plus years then you can't risk that much ever. If you risk 5-6 % its not a question of if you will blow out, it is only when. Especially trading the 5 min time frame. Don't believe me? Build a spread sheet with a risk/reward of 60 % win 40% loss. Run it for a 100 trials. Count the loosing streaks. A run of 8 losses will be common out of a 100 trials. At 6% that is a 48% draw down. Now the beauty of math....after you draw down 50% what % do you need to get back to even? 100%. So after your psychologically damaged and freaked out because your down 50% you have trade better than you ever have in your life before and make 100% just to break even. Do you want to take that bet?

Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #13,882
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:33pm Sep 24, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting Forex007
Here's another example of a "Ryanmcd" trade. At the first red circle you have Pinbar protruding beyond Bollinger Bands. 2nd red circle - Outside Bullish Bar. You also have RSI divergence (twice - 1st not visible). That was a strong indication of a forthcoming bullish move. I entered after Outside bar (OB).

PA could be misleading too: at the yellow circle you have Pin bar also penetrating BB. The price then retreated. It would have been a valid set-up for short. I stayed in the long trade based on (a) anticipated retracement to at least 31.8% Fibo (in respect of the prior big move down) and (b) Laguerres. It was also a "let the trade develop/take care of itself" case as I had my SL in place (below OB).

As for the exit, once the price reached 61.8% Fibo it "stabilized" for quite a while. That's where I exited. BTW, would Ryanmcd exit based on an opposite PA or using discretion (as he does with entries)?

To me, the beauty of such setups is their high probability - which means I could increase risk to 5-6%.

Ok its time to calm down with this 5min I can copy Ryan stuff. First that is not a pin bar that you mention and the line that made me fume. "increase to 5-6%" what are you on already? This much risk on any trade is too much let alone on a 5 minute trade is total and complete insanity. We just had some posts about MM and simplicity c'mon on.This thread is about safe repeatable trading not reducing great stuff to get rich quick nonsense.
Please Forex 007 don't take this personally but I just had to step in. It's my birthday and I can be a bit leary today

Swami S
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #13,883
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:51pm Sep 24, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting Swami S
Ok its time to calm down with this 5min I can copy Ryan stuff. First that is not a pin bar that you mention and the line that made me fume. "increase to 5-6%" what are you on already? This much risk on any trade is too much let alone on a 5 minute trade is total and complete insanity. We just had some posts about MM and simplicity c'mon on.This thread is about safe repeatable trading not reducing great stuff to get rich quick nonsense.
Please Forex 007 don't take this personally but I just had to step in. It's my birthday and I can be a bit leary today

Swami S
Amen to the "safe repeatable trading". Happy Birthday Swami!!

Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #13,884
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:58pm Sep 24, 2008 2:58pm
Well I said I would not be back but I also said I NEVER want to see someone blow up and trading 5% that will happen. I blew out 3 account that way. When doing something new I trade with AS LITTLE AS I CAN, if I trade with 2-3$ per trade that's great because I still feel the action but not the $$$ pain. Get this down good before you risk a lot please, I don't want to see posts about "Ryanmcd SUCKS and blew up my account!"
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,885
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:58pm Sep 24, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting aSandman
Amen to the "safe repeatable trading". Happy Birthday Swami!!

Jason

This is probably the exact reason why Ryan stopped posting.
  • #13,886
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:00pm Sep 24, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting Fx Jeff
This is probably the exact reason why Ryan stopped posting.

You got it
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,887
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:05pm Sep 24, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting Forex007
Here's another example of a "Ryanmcd" trade. At the first red circle you have Pinbar protruding beyond Bollinger Bands. 2nd red circle - Outside Bullish Bar. You also have RSI divergence (twice - 1st not visible). That was a strong indication of a forthcoming bullish move. I entered after Outside bar (OB).

PA could be misleading too: at the yellow circle you have Pin bar also penetrating BB. The price then retreated. It would have been a valid set-up for short. I stayed in the long trade based on (a) anticipated retracement to at least 31.8% Fibo (in respect of the prior big move down) and (b) Laguerres. It was also a "let the trade develop/take care of itself" case as I had my SL in place (below OB).

As for the exit, once the price reached 61.8% Fibo it "stabilized" for quite a while. That's where I exited. BTW, would Ryanmcd exit based on an opposite PA or using discretion (as he does with entries)?

To me, the beauty of such setups is their high probability - which means I could increase risk to 5-6%.

I dont use fib's I think most of that stuff is just BS but to each there own. Please don't hack up what I posted here is how I would of traded it.
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Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,888
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:57pm Sep 24, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting Fx Jeff
This is probably the exact reason why Ryan stopped posting.
This was not meant as slight against Ryan or his style of trading. If I offended anyone that was not my intent. Amen to safe trading was meant as to not risking 5 to 6 %! Defining a strong trend, then selling rallies or buying pull backs is a time tested method.

Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #13,889
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:31pm Sep 24, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting aSandman
This was not meant as slight against Ryan or his style of trading. If I offended anyone that was not my intent. Amen to safe trading was meant as to not risking 5 to 6 %! Defining a strong trend, then selling rallies or buying pull backs is a time tested method.

Jason

I was talking about the the 5-6% as not being safe, as was as taking a so call "PB" when it was not. People rush into stuff way to fast, it fails for them in a few days and it's on to the next system, I spent about 3 years before I started to get even 2 more years getting better then I started makeing money and can trade any time any markets. If this was easy we would not have 900+ pages on this. But like 99.9% of the people they think they should be able to make millions with 15min of work.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,890
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:35pm Sep 24, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting aSandman
This was not meant as slight against Ryan or his style of trading. If I offended anyone that was not my intent. Amen to safe trading was meant as to not risking 5 to 6 %! Defining a strong trend, then selling rallies or buying pull backs is a time tested method.

Jason
Yes I am very big on risk/expectancy and how the math side comes out. Many people have no idea how much moving from even 1% a trade to 2% effects things. In the most simplest form you are effectively doubling everything. Including most importantly your drawdown(which we ALL have). That is what we always have to be prepared for. Because the hole we dig is much harder to get out then it was to get in. So think about it in the most basic sense. Say your method produces x% a year with a drawdown of max 25% on avg at 1% a trade. Now you bump to 2% a trade b/c well you still made money at year end. But you forget that when that drawdown comes you are now sitting in a 50% hole, and getting out of that 50% hole take more then getting into it.

The simple rule is never more then 1-2% per trade. But even 1% is too much for some. I get a lot of emails a day and I forgot what it was like to being very new when you can not grasp that trading 4% a trade is very very different then trading 1% a trade.

The hardest thing for most is that the account is so small that 1% is so little that they think in $ terms, when you should think in % returns until you can bring your account up to size. Same goes for pips. Search the forums for threads like "pips don't matter".

Sorry for the rant but I am very much into this aspect of trading as those who taught me and I look up to all were, so even if it helps a few new traders lurking I think it is worht posting here.

Happy trading

Mike
  • #13,891
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:07pm Sep 24, 2008 5:07pm
Quoting mbqb11
But even 1% is too much for some.
I risk over 50% of my broker equity at times.

BUT....

My broker equity is less than 1% of my total trading capital

I just cannot trust all of my hard earned coin with a broker, if they fell over, I'd lose the plot.

Plus our interest rates here in Australia are great at the moment (8+%). I have most of my capital sitting in term deposits and savings accounts. My company account alone pays me 8.5% p/a for a balance of 10k and above.

Doing it this way, I trade extremely conservatively. Very rarely do I risk more than 0.5% of my total capital. Any trades I consider high risk (not 5 star or A+++), I'll only be risking 0.01-0.05% (1-5% of my broker equity).

Sure I have to pay broker fees to refund my trading account, but it happens rarely and it certainly ensures I do not over trade.

MM is key, MM is key, MM is key, MM is key
  • #13,892
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:26pm Sep 24, 2008 5:26pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
I risk over 50% of my broker equity at times.

BUT....

My broker equity is less than 1% of my total trading capital

I just cannot trust all of my hard earned coin with a broker, if they fell over, I'd lose the plot.

Plus our interest rates here in Australia are great at the moment (8+%). I have most of my capital sitting in term deposits and savings accounts. My company account alone pays me 8.5% p/a for a balance of 10k and above.

Doing it this way, I trade extremely conservatively. Very rarely do I risk more than 0.5% of my total capital. Any trades I consider high risk (not 5 star or A+++), I'll only be risking 0.01-0.05% (1-5% of my broker equity).

Sure I have to pay broker fees to refund my trading account, but it happens rarely and it certainly ensures I do not over trade.

MM is key, MM is key, MM is key, MM is key
yes you are quite right, I meant of your total capital. A lot of people only hold what is needed to cover margin on their positions with their broker and have all other available funds else where

And yes MM is key

well said

Mike
  • #13,893
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:03pm Sep 24, 2008 6:03pm
I think it's all about "changing" your mind. you have to start thinking in numbers, not in $ or it will kill you. for example : your monthly salary is 5000$ ( no idea what's average in usa) , and now, you are in trade where u risk 1-2% maybe 500-1000$ ..u can be nervous etc... (or excitement& greed or fear and "stoned hands for execution". NO ! u risk ONLY 1-2 % AND ONLY 50 PIPS! no $ risk ! You can trade without indicators = clean chart / naked trading. Why do u cant trade without $?! it's only numbers !
  • #13,894
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:06pm Sep 24, 2008 9:06pm
Got the first 2 trades for a quick 20pips. Missed the third one...

Thanks Ryan.
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  • #13,895
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:18pm Sep 24, 2008 9:18pm
Woke up this morning and I saw this...

Thanks again Ryan.

This stuff is so easy and more of my style (quick in and out etc.)
Right now I'm a bit afraid of the lure of over-trading actually

Regards,
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  • #13,896
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:24pm Sep 24, 2008 9:24pm
Quoting y.caesar
Got the first 2 trades for a quick 20pips. Missed the third one...

Thanks Ryan.
Nice job my 1 trade was the 2nd arrow and made my +20 2% on the day. Remember you should have a goal and once you get it stop, you will have days where the 1st one is a loser the goal is whatever you set it, for me it's 2% a day once that is complete I log out.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,897
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:38pm Sep 24, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting jarroo
Gbp/Jpy. Daily Inside Bar (I 8++ B)

I took this long off the break of the Daily IB. I've taken some off the table because of the strong PPZ. I would like to see Price break through the PPZ and act as Support again. (Notice the BUOB on the weekly. I good sign.)
Dé·jà vu, all over again. Let's try this again. Long at 196.59.

Break of the Weekly BUOB (197.02) will help confirm I'm on the right track. (Sorry can't post charts)
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,898
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:50pm Sep 24, 2008 9:50pm
Another Ryan type trade...

Could've worked but couldn't get the price at the break with the limit order.
Plus the spread at this hour is horrible. Eur/Usd with 2pips spread is ridiculous, but it always happens around morning time here.

Oh well, be back trading when Europe opens.
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  • #13,899
  • Sep 24, 2008 10:58pm Sep 24, 2008 10:58pm
Quoting jarroo
Dé·jà vu, all over again. Let's try this again. Long at 196.59.

Break of the Weekly BUOB (197.02) will help confirm I'm on the right track. (Sorry can't post charts)
Attached GBP/JPY D1 TF..
Should u wait a while longer...for clearer setup..??

Sonic
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  • #13,900
  • Sep 24, 2008 11:09pm Sep 24, 2008 11:09pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Attached GBP/JPY D1 TF..
Should u wait a while longer...for clearer setup..??

Sonic
I have it like this for my watchlist

-Mike
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