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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,121
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:23am Sep 24, 2008 6:23am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi Phillip. I dont have a signal TC on my 4 hour GU yet however there is a weekly trend line where price is now.
The first chart is the 4 hour . Notice how price is uncertain around it mostly with resistance.
The second chart shows the trend line on a weekly chart . it was previous support and now could act as possible resistance. Also news at 10 am and Bernake speaks again around that time. So there could be volatility again.
Yes. Time to wait.
  • #17,122
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:25am Sep 24, 2008 6:25am
Quoting bshadroo
it is the reverse of eurusd situation ,im looking for a entry place in eurusd in smaller TF to reduce my SL size.so ,if there is a sell signal in usdchf with good stoploss i think u can enter .
Im also watching this, the 4H TC is being formed although still 2:30 hours till mine closes and the 1H has broken the resistance in the form of trend line.

But as you say the risk is too big. Even pulling back to 50% which happens to be on the previous 1H trendline its still too big and if it did that at the moment I think the TC wont even finish being a TC on the 4H.....

Im switching to 5min on E/U for the moment to see how things go there.
  • #17,123
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:27am Sep 24, 2008 6:27am
Quoting bshadroo
it is the reverse of eurusd situation ,im looking for a entry place in eurusd in smaller TF to reduce my SL size.so ,if there is a sell signal in usdchf with good stoploss i think u can enter .
thanks for replying,

the stop is a bit large , above the high of the last candle ... the tp can be large as well if it will fall all the way to the last low ... it's r:r>1 ...

by the way , where is it best place to move stop loss to be ?

thanks
  • #17,124
  • Edited 7:43am Sep 24, 2008 7:29am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting brettboz
Im also watching this, the 4H TC is being formed although still 2:30 hours till mine closes and the 1H has broken the resistance in the form of trend line.

But as you say the risk is too big. Even pulling back to 50% which happens to be on the previous 1H trendline its still too big and if it did that at the moment I think the TC wont even finish being a TC on the 4H.....

Im switching to 5min on E/U for the moment to see how things go there.
now it backs to the breakout point and H4 closed with a TC .im waiting to see what is he going to do with the breakout level and if it is possible go long .i dont think M5 chart can help us because the price is now below the all MAs.should go to the M30 or M15
BTW bernanke is speaking
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  • #17,125
  • Sep 24, 2008 7:32am Sep 24, 2008 7:32am
Quoting Barak's pip
thanks for replying,

the stop is a bit large , above the high of the last candle ... the tp can be large as well if it will fall all the way to the last low ... it's r:r>1 ...

by the way , where is it best place to move stop loss to be ?

thanks
phillip usually move his dtoploss to -25 or BE after 25pips depending on the probability of the trade .i myself like to follow my trade in smaller TF to move my SL with the price movment .
  • #17,126
  • Sep 24, 2008 7:33am Sep 24, 2008 7:33am
Quoting bshadroo
now it backs to the breakout point and H4 closed with a TC .im waiting to see what is he going to do with the breakout level and if it is possible go long .
BTW bernanke is speaking
Not closed on mine for another 1:30, yes back at breakout but not TC on 4H if closed at this level. Looks risky to me oh and there is no correlation over to G/U. False breakout?
  • #17,127
  • Edited 8:14am Sep 24, 2008 8:00am | Edited 8:14am
Quoting brettboz
Not closed on mine for another 1:30, yes back at breakout but not TC on 4H if closed at this level. Looks risky to me oh and there is no correlation over to G/U. False breakout?
yes ,now price is 1.4645 and may be it was a false breakout .but there was a nice TC in my chart with a up breakout and it would be interesting to phillip or othere experts tell us why didnt take this TC
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  • #17,128
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:12am Sep 24, 2008 8:12am
To be honest guys there is no rhythm in the market so you are just looking for TC / CT Save your ammo for another day!

Wish I had thought that earlier GRR
  • #17,129
  • Edited 9:05am Sep 24, 2008 8:41am | Edited 9:05am
finnaly decided to enter looking at price action near the breakout point on M15 chart .also i had a TC in H4 in the previous candle
edit:closed -15pips, why the TC didnt work?!!!
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  • #17,130
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:33am Sep 24, 2008 9:33am
Quoting bshadroo
yes ,now price is 1.4645 and may be it was a false breakout .but there was a nice TC in my chart with a up breakout and it would be interesting to phillip or othere experts tell us why didnt take this TC

Luckily I had an appointment because I think I might have taken it. The pullback from the 364Ema was strong but this TC signal was all valid if you look at the total movement back up from 11/09/2008.
The only concern was that the rhythm of the last few candles before the setup was not nice and smooth. But it was all a valid signal.
  • #17,131
  • Sep 24, 2008 10:22am Sep 24, 2008 10:22am
I saw that TC on my Alapri demo account. which has same candle time as MIG. Reason i did not it was because the TC was formed on a break out candle on the 1 hour and we have to wait for a retracement and move away cpnfirmation . I could have waited for that on the 1 hour however this trend line on the weekly chart kept me out. Similar to the GU posted earlier. 1st chart is 4 hour and 2nd is weekly on euro. So i decided to skip it. This could be a very conservative approach but the way price action has been recently, i am ok with it.
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #17,132
  • Sep 24, 2008 12:00pm Sep 24, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting mr.krai
now eu/us , get down bump against support , the very
strong
what is that picture?
i love forex,but i'd rather never look at any chart than analysing a chart like yours
  • #17,133
  • Sep 25, 2008 12:53am Sep 25, 2008 12:53am
Quoting bshadroo
finnaly decided to enter looking at price action near the breakout point on M15 chart .also i had a TC in H4 in the previous candle
edit:closed -15pips, why the TC didnt work?!!!
To me, there is still a resistant line formed from 22th September which price hadn't broke succesfully, ususally there is a resistant there, the TC alsways be a failure siganl.

Second, at the resistant line, price has formed a harami which means the trend will stall there.

Third, according to 4h rules, sl should be set at the low of previous candle which is too big to enter, you must use some mangement to enter.

Fourth, Bernake had been talking at that time, you should wait a moment to see whether there is a chance at 5min chart, at 16:10, price dropped 30pips
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,134
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:13am Sep 25, 2008 1:13am
I've gone long GBPUSD 1.8595, SL 1.8554 TP 1.8697.
I'm a bit late on the 4hr BOZ MACD, but waited for price to pull back to the downward former resistance now support on the 1 hr.
Both 4hr and 1 hr below.

Any comments please....
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  • #17,135
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:16am Sep 25, 2008 1:16am
dear phillip
i'v litssened to ur MP3 and i should say thank you again for ur all good work here ,but i have a question:suppose a person who always enter a trade with 1lot and 30pips stoploss is OK for his account ,so if he need to put a larger stoploss he should decrease his LOT size .for example if he wanna put even 300pips stoploss he can enter with 10k and put 300pips stoploss.but the important point is this:is the probability of trade with a signal candle with 30-40 pips stoploss the same as a candle with 100pips stoploss .before august the huge signal candles usually turend around to the stoploss and they were low probability trades because price reaches to his target with the same candle.is that right?
thx in advance
  • #17,136
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:20am Sep 25, 2008 1:20am
Quoting saka
To me, there is still a resistant line formed from 22th September which price hadn't broke succesfully, ususally there is a resistant there, the TC alsways be a failure siganl.

Second, at the resistant line, price has formed a harami which means the trend will stall there.

Third, according to 4h rules, sl should be set at the low of previous candle which is too big to enter, you must use some mangement to enter.

Fourth, Bernake had been talking at that time, you should wait a moment to see whether there is a chance at 5min chart, at 16:10, price dropped 30pips
thx for replying .i wanna ask about ur third reason wich i asked from phillip too .do u agree large signal candles are more risky even if one enter with smaller contract size?i mean the probability of that trades are less .do u agree?
BTW ,i'll come to china next month
  • #17,137
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:20am Sep 25, 2008 1:20am
Quoting pubber
I've gone long GBPUSD 1.8595, SL 1.8554 TP 1.8697.
I'm a bit late on the 4hr BOZ MACD, but waited for price to pull back to the downward former resistance now support on the 1 hr.
Both 4hr and 1 hr below.

Any comments please....
E/U is in a similar situation but I'm not so sure about the trades. On the G/U you have a resistance area around 8645 which hasnt really been broken and look at the spike coming off that area on the last hourly candle.
  • #17,138
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:27am Sep 25, 2008 1:27am
Quoting bshadroo
thx for replying .i wanna ask about ur third reason wich i asked from phillip too .do u agree large signal candles are more risky even if one enter with smaller contract size?i mean the probability of that trades are less .do u agree?
BTW ,i'll come to china next month
I agree, I don't believe a great deal in reducing lot size to be able to take on larger moves. Price has been making very large one day moves lately but thats not always the case and if the stop is say 150 pips then we may have seen a large part of a days movement already having taken place. OK it may go another 150 but maybe not in the same day and I don't like keeping trades open much either.

If there is no retrace and you have a desperate need to trade then once price is on a run moving to a shorter term strategy such as philips 5 min is probably the best bet. You can scalp a few pips off the smaller retraces on the larger move.
  • #17,139
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:36am Sep 25, 2008 1:36am
Quoting bshadroo
thx for replying .i wanna ask about ur third reason wich i asked from phillip too .do u agree large signal candles are more risky even if one enter with smaller contract size?i mean the probability of that trades are less .do u agree?
BTW ,i'll come to china next month
If the canldes has formed a engulf which is a strong trend reserve pattern of TC or BOZ signal, it should be anticipated that the price will go high or low. But after the siganl candle, there often will be a cross or even a big cross which will touch you low SL level. But if you miss it, maybe you will miss a good chance. So I think that you can use Phillip's method which use half lot to enter and the start of this 4h candle, along with doubled sl, and wait for appropritate chance appears at 1h or 5min chart to enter another lot with some mangement.

Absolutely welcome you to China, will you first be to Beijing? And how long will you stay at here
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,140
  • Sep 25, 2008 1:39am Sep 25, 2008 1:39am
Is there any good guy who will help us those who have a poor listening ablilbty for the sake of God
Plan your trades and trade your plans
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