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  • #981
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:34am Sep 24, 2008 1:34am
Quoting Islander
I've just watched the latest video and have modified my post above for greater clarity.

Also, whilst the 987 FZ often holds the moves in the Euro and Swissy, Cable often makes it to the 1597 FZ
so , after those 3 rules for entering in a position , can we say that this gbp\chf 4hr chart is following all the rules?and is going to the next exp. ?
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  • #982
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:58am Sep 24, 2008 2:58am
Quoting Islander
I think that you're correct, we are being told how to find the best entries by finding trades that meet a three step criteria:

First a move to the 610 FZ followed by pull back to respect a 38 / 50 / 61 retracement with an overlap of a smaller FZ

Second a continuation to take out a 61 or 100 expansion

Third a further pull back to respect the new 38 / 50 / 61 retracement that overlaps a Fib Zone

A trade is only entered after the third move - i.e. the second pull back

The target then is the 987 FZ or the larger expansions from the second move.

I'm certain that there is more to add and I need to re-run the videos as soon as I have time
generally you're right , but if you'll watch again at the videos about nzd\chf & cad\jpy , you'll notice that there was no move all the way to 610 , maybe to 233 \ 377 FZ ... so maybe there is different set of rules for crosses and for majors ?
  • #983
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:13am Sep 24, 2008 3:13am
Quoting Barak's pip
generally you're right , but if you'll watch again at the videos about nzd\chf & cad\jpy , you'll notice that there was no move all the way to 610 , maybe to 233 \ 377 FZ ... so maybe there is different set of rules for crosses and for majors ?
I would suggest that it would be linked more to the average daily ranges....currently I have: Cable 232; Euro 222; CADJPY 182; Swissy 173 & NZDCHF 148. These are all somewhat higher than usual due to the recent increase in volatility.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #984
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:34am Sep 24, 2008 3:34am
Hi guys,

sorry to jump in like this but one question: if you want to play with the rules listed in the post below, how many times would you have been able to enter a trade e.g. for euro during this year? Maybe once, somewhere in February?

Ok, it might be that this rule set defines an optimal case for entering, and for "ordinary" trading you can use some other set of rules?

R

Quoting Islander
I think that you're correct, we are being told how to find the best entries by finding trades that meet a three step criteria:

First a move to the 610 FZ followed by pull back to respect a 38 / 50 / 61 retracement with an overlap of a smaller FZ

Second a continuation to take out a 61 or 100 expansion

Third a further pull back to respect the new 38 / 50 / 61 retracement that overlaps a Fib Zone

A trade is only entered after the third move - i.e. the second pull back

The target then is the 987 FZ or the larger expansions from the second move.

I'm certain that there is more to add and I need to re-run the videos as soon as I have time
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  • #985
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:40am Sep 24, 2008 3:40am
Quoting Barak's pip
so , after those 3 rules for entering in a position , can we say that this gbp\chf 4hr chart is following all the rules?and is going to the next exp. ?

Agreed, it followed the first, second and third parts BUT itthen failed to take out the new fib expansion of 2.0409 at #4 and then made another 50% retrace (not shown)

I personally would have bought that last pull back at around the 1.9920 area as for me, there was a confluence of a fib 50% line and a sweet spot / psych level of 9900.

Now it needs to break to new highs and take out the FE 61.8 at 2.0409 to confirm its attack on the 987 FZ.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #986
  • Edited 3:54am Sep 24, 2008 3:53am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting Rocroy
Hi guys,

sorry to jump in like this but one question: if you want to play with the rules listed in the post below, how many times would you have been able to enter a trade e.g. for euro during this year? Maybe once, somewhere in February?

Ok, it might be that this rule set defines an optimal case for entering, and for "ordinary" trading you can use some other set of rules?

R
Attachment

That's a good point and I will need to do some back testing to see if there is an optimal FZ number for each pair and maybe the 610 will be too high for most pairs. I did make the point earlier that volatility has increased considerably as is confirmed just by eyeballing the euro's daily chart.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #987
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:10am Sep 24, 2008 4:10am
Quoting Rocroy
Hi guys,

sorry to jump in like this but one question: if you want to play with the rules listed in the post below, how many times would you have been able to enter a trade e.g. for euro during this year? Maybe once, somewhere in February?

Ok, it might be that this rule set defines an optimal case for entering, and for "ordinary" trading you can use some other set of rules?

R



Attachment
I also in the feeling that there is something missing here , since in the earlier videos by Mouteki I did not see it , I've just seen a kind of price action that was going between zones , retrace levels and expansions .. I attend to agree with you about the fact that if we will have to wait each time to all that 3 rules being followed we won't trade a lot ... maybe what's missing is the volume part that he spoke about - I guess we will have to wait ...

and another thing - right now the price at the eur\usd , swissy and cable is stack very near to the down move fib zones and retracements ...so how should we look at that situation ? end of the retracement for the down move ? so in this case it will be wise to long the dollar ... isn't it?
  • #988
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:21am Sep 24, 2008 4:21am
Quoting Hwd
Well lets take a look.

144 was respected going up and on a retrace as well. There was no respect of Fibs on its way up bewtween the 144 FZ AND the 610 FZ. It did respect the FE 61.8 from the first move. However, I think you gonna have to wait for a bigger retracement and more respecting before harmony can be declared outright.

I am not saying you cant take your chances at the 377, but my advice is to wait for more respecting on the retracement. Just not enough respect for me. I like to see respect like that which exists in the USD/CHF, EUR/USD, AUD/NZD,.... I like to be sure. I like to see the bouncing between FZ'S (overlapping retracements).

Now, it MAY develop into nice harmony. Let's watch it.

Keep working man.

Good point thanks for your reply..
  • #989
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:41am Sep 24, 2008 4:41am
Hey is anyone looking at the news for futher insight in where these pairs are going ?

Today
10:00am USDhttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...mpact_high.gifExisting Home Sales

4.93M5.00M

10:00am USDhttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...mpact_high.gifFed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

-2.0M-6.3M

Tomorrow
8:30am USDhttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...mpact_high.gifCore Durable Goods Orders m/m

-0.5%0.7%

8:30am USDhttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...mpact_high.gifUnemployment Claims

450K455K

10:00am USDhttp://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...mpact_high.gifNew Home Sales

510K515K


Looks like negative news events to unfold. Any thoughts ...
  • #990
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:09am Sep 24, 2008 5:09am
One more comment: I don't know if you guys have noticed that a fib cycle does not always start from the top or bottom. Sometimes there are firstly a couple of correction moves, like EW proposes.

You need to identify those and exclude them from the fib cycle. Once you do that, everything becomes clear again. An example below.

You could also think of using trendlines instead of fundamentals for determining long term trend. If you are trading on 1H or 4H chart, fundamentals may just not be the thing... And who can say if trend will change e.g. if home sales rises to 5.2 today instead of expected 4.9? I can't. Why not let the market to show the trend?

R

Quoting Islander
That's a good point and I will need to do some back testing to see if there is an optimal FZ number for each pair and maybe the 610 will be too high for most pairs. I did make the point earlier that volatility has increased considerably as is confirmed just by eyeballing the euro's daily chart.
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  • #991
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:13am Sep 24, 2008 5:13am
Quoting Barak's pip

and another thing - right now the price at the eur\usd , swissy and cable is stack very near to the down move fib zones and retracements ...so how should we look at that situation ? end of the retracement for the down move ? so in this case it will be wise to long the dollar ... isn't it?

I have the same doubt too. How do we determine if a move has ended or its just breathing to take out new fib levels. Is 1.4865 the top of a new move on euro? It has bounced twice perfectly off the 233 fib zone. So should we be looking for a down move?? frankly, a bit confused guys
  • #992
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:32am Sep 24, 2008 5:32am
Quoting 4xisfun
Not sure if this has been answered yet or not, but if you take a look at Mouteki's blog (forexgemini.com) there are 3 sets of videos under the heading Categories. I believe he explains the fib zones in the introduction videos. I would suggest watching and rewatching all the videos--you can learn a lot!! Basically the fib zones (233, 377, 610, etc. . .) are calculated from adding/subtracting these numbers from the high or low. So for example, on the eurusd, the lowest low we had since this move up was 1.3882 (according to my broker). So we start there and add, since we're going up, 3882 + 233 = 4115--so this is your 233 fib zone. And then do the same for the next numbers: 377, 610, 987, 1597. . .

Hope this helps!!
Thanks for answering fxisfun.
You know I still can't find this on any of the videos but maybe I am just skipping through them just a little too quickly. Just to make sure, there are only the 3 videos on the introduction videos and then 3 in the truth series and now three in fibs and fundies section?
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #993
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:35am Sep 24, 2008 5:35am
Quoting juicyt
...there are only the 3 videos on the introduction videos and then 3 in the truth series and now three in fibs and fundies section?
There are 8 videos in the "Truth" series.
  • #994
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:07am Sep 24, 2008 6:07am
If i can only predict the future...

Seems to be heading back up but im not sure..

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  • #995
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:17am Sep 24, 2008 6:17am
Quoting Rocroy
One more comment: I don't know if you guys have noticed that a fib cycle does not always start from the top or bottom. Sometimes there are firstly a couple of correction moves, like EW proposes.

You need to identify those and exclude them from the fib cycle. Once you do that, everything becomes clear again. An example below.

You could also think of using trendlines instead of fundamentals for determining long term trend. If you are trading on 1H or 4H chart, fundamentals may just not be the thing... And who can say if trend will change e.g. if home sales rises to 5.2 today instead of expected 4.9? I can't. Why not let the market to show the trend?

R
ATTACH]151039[/ATTACH]
Your use of the fib retracements tool set up with expansions - the gold ones on my chart - are not what Mouteki has been showning. His are the yellow ones set to your start level.

However, more interesting was your choice of levels for pulling a fib. Was this made in real time or after the event? What's the rational for using your levels? By EW do you mean Elliott Wave?

Here - just from a very quick look - there seems to be respect and harmony from the earlier, lower low and the move would have already hit the 987 FZ - and being a Yen cross might even make the 1597 level. Your suggested start level places the 987 level at 158.82 - yet to get hit.



[
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #996
  • Edited 6:24am Sep 24, 2008 6:17am | Edited 6:24am
Quoting karthik
I have the same doubt too. How do we determine if a move has ended or its just breathing to take out new fib levels. Is 1.4865 the top of a new move on euro? It has bounced twice perfectly off the 233 fib zone. So should we be looking for a down move?? frankly, a bit confused guys
In the last video Mouteki said you could start your fib zones going down to see if there is a possibility of a move in the oppposite direction--which I did and it has already taken out the 144 and 233. He said if it retraces from these zones and heads back down and starts showing respect to the fibs, then we could see that this up move has played out. But I'm also still learning, but those are my thoughts. Not sure if it's much help.
  • #997
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:23am Sep 24, 2008 6:23am
Quoting Fx Pipin
If i can only predict the future...

Seems to be heading back up but im not sure..

Don't think so yet.

I'm expecting it to retrace at least to the 610 or possibly to the 50% retracement area.
  • #998
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:27am Sep 24, 2008 6:27am
Quoting Spikey
There are 8 videos in the "Truth" series.
I just found them... I knew something was missing. It all comes together now and completes the puzzle. Thanks
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #999
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:41am Sep 24, 2008 6:41am
Quoting Fx Pipin
If i can only predict the future...

Seems to be heading back up but im not sure..

mm - the news this moring - fundementals - was bad for the Euro:

Business confidence dropped in Germany, France and Italy in September, surveys showed on Wednesday, adding to fears the euro zone is sinking into recession as the effects of U.S. financial turmoil spread across the Atlantic.

Further declines in the third quarter would put all three countries in recession, a term normally defined as two straight quarters economic contraction. It would be Germany's first recession since 2004.

'With activity in the euro-zone's largest economy clearly weakening, the ECB's hawkish tone must surely soften in the coming months,' said Jennifer McKeown from Capital Economics.

Also, the Paulson rescue plan is still under discussion and we have these news events due:

10:00 USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifExisting Home Sales
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif
4.93M5.00M
10:00 USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifFed Chairman Bernanke Testifies & again at 14:30


My take is plenty of volatile chop before "normal" service resumes http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,000
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:53am Sep 24, 2008 6:53am
Quoting Islander
I think that you're correct, we are being told how to find the best entries by finding trades that meet a three step criteria:

First a move to the 610 FZ followed by pull back to respect a 38 / 50 / 61 retracement with an overlap of a smaller FZ

Second a continuation to take out a 61 or 100 expansion

Third a further pull back to respect the new 38 / 50 / 61 retracement that overlaps a Fib Zone

A trade is only entered after the third move - i.e. the second pull back

The target then is the 987 FZ or the larger expansions from the second move.

I'm certain that there is more to add and I need to re-run the videos as soon as I have time

by the way , how does this currency pair fits in inside the rulles ?

it touched the 61.8 and respected it - but since there was no move
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