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  • #3,681
  • Sep 23, 2008 1:42pm Sep 23, 2008 1:42pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
yeah - its just a tracker and commentary thread more than anything becuase I know how stuff gets lost in this thread in general with all the commentary from the community and this will keep everything organized - Steve W. is me - I tried to find a way to keep it in the first page of this thread but I'll go nuts to be honest trying to do that.....this is much easier - $9 bucks for the domain name and we're good to go - see all I do for you guys ?
Much appreciated Steve/BRV !!
  • #3,682
  • Sep 23, 2008 2:58pm Sep 23, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting Grath
Is there some way others could post to the blog? I mean... couldn't finswin56 just post his No Brainer there himself? (... and me too, if I ever get that confident...)?

Maybe you would just have a list of "qualified" people with the permission to post? (Most of us know the names of those members.)

Just trying to help... tell me to butt out if needs be.
David
Hi, David!

I know I will remain happy if BillyRay keeps posting his charts only. We've got this thread for posting our charts and while learning, we can compare our charts with his and observe, if we think like he thinks.

As far as I can see, there are many fine posters on this thread, but I guess that BillyRay (and Iron-man) have the greatest amount of skill and a "filtered out" page with BillyRay's charts only will be a GREAT learning tool for us all.

Btw, thank you from me too, BRV, for launching the blog! This made my day!
  • #3,683
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:16pm Sep 23, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting hendrix
Hi, David!

I know I will remain happy if BillyRay keeps posting his charts only. We've got this thread for posting our charts and while learning, we can compare our charts with his and observe, if we think like he thinks.

As far as I can see, there are many fine posters on this thread, but I guess that BillyRay (and Iron-man) have the greatest amount of skill and a "filtered out" page with BillyRay's charts only will be a GREAT learning tool for us all.

Btw, thank you from me too, BRV, for launching the blog! This made my day!
I could not agree more .... BRV's 'filtered out' page will be a great addition to all out learning.

In my limited trading career so far I have realised that FOCUS is the most important thing in building skills/confidence and this can only help us all to focus on why BRV/Iron man select the trades they do rather than some 'possibles' that I am sure we all consider ourselved privately.

Great work BRV !!

Thank you.
  • #3,684
  • Edited 7:08pm Sep 23, 2008 6:57pm | Edited 7:08pm
These threads contain some useful indicators:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=15197
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3252
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64925
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10215
  • #3,685
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:07am Sep 24, 2008 1:07am
Tonight the big question is: how much time will it take for the US Bailout Plan to go through? I sat at my desk today listening to hours of Senators and Congressman grilling Paulson and Bernanke for all the questions on the nation’s minds, and I along with many others realized that this plan isn’t going to pass in a heartbeat.

Selling versus buying:

In terms of the equity markets, selling is usually a one-time decision. Buying is far more likely to be averaged in over time. That’s why is not unheard of for markets to decline much faster than they accelerate.

Right now we have a short selling ban on financials (which account for appx 15% of the SPX) and we’re still seeing SPX move lower over the past two days. Like I said before about the Fannie and Freddie bailout, when everyone was buying the night it happened, I sat back and said “This is overall some really bad news; it shows us in horrible, vulnerable condition”. The market than sank hard and fast the next day, basically qualifying the theory.

So here were are – after an 8.5% gain in two days, everything is selling again, because reality has kicked everyone pretty hard, and the word is spreading to the mom and pop investors; general investors are liquidating much of their portfolios, hedge funds are cutting back on long exposure, etc. People are generally scared as hell to buy anything, and after taking such deep losses, trying to stop the bleeding.

Short term and what I’m looking for:

Number one: How long before this thing gets passed? Because the way things are going, the longer it lingers, the more red ink is going to smear. Its passing will at least promote temporary optimism and get the gears going again.

Number two: If SPX keeps moving lower we’ll probably actually see USD strengthen temporarily, as traders pull down the price of carry trades, which will weigh down on EUR, AUD, etc. In steep declining markets, the selling of these trades is a strong force, as we’ve seen.

Number three: Looking at the commodity correlation, I think we’ll be buzzing in consolidation until we hear the verdict on the bailout. People are going to be waiting to move much of their dollar assets to gold, etc, until we get more news.

Bottom Line: I don’t think its too early to be looking for some good places to go short the dollar; there are still less net buyers than sellers; waiting for things to get moving again. I’m looking for EUR, GBP longs, and USD/JPY I want to find some longs, as well. Likewise, looking for EJ longs, etc. But I’m prepared to assume the risk that more drawdown might lie ahead, however, which is very important to note. So in terms of intraday trades, I wouldn’t be afraid to go long or short.

But its all contingent on time – we’ll see how long this really takes. That much, no one can predict, but we expect it to occur within the next few days to a week or two. But anything can happen at this point.
  • #3,686
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:27am Sep 24, 2008 1:27am
50% retracement of the entire last wave and also good resistance confluence. Dont think I need to say be careful when it comes to any hysteric buying over the next week; there are a lot of loose ends and traders with itchy trigger fingers just waiting for the next big piece of news to come out.

There is also some resistance at the 1.8740 area, just a heads up.

By the way if I'm hesitant on any of these I'll do my best to cancel them, etc. I can atleast track thema little better now, so again I'll do my best.
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  • #3,687
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:28am Sep 24, 2008 1:28am
Just wanted to say I'm working on getting it all set up. Might take me a day or two. Thanks all.
  • #3,688
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:45am Sep 24, 2008 1:45am
Quoting Grath
Is there some way others could post to the blog? I mean... couldn't finswin56 just post his No Brainer there himself? (... and me too, if I ever get that confident...)?

Maybe you would just have a list of "qualified" people with the permission to post? (Most of us know the names of those members.)

Just trying to help... tell me to butt out if needs be.
David
Thanks, yeah we tried that too, but again a lot of bickering about who does what and so on. Sometimes simple is a little better.....we'll see how it goes....Im working on being creative here
  • #3,689
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:00am Sep 24, 2008 2:00am
Quoting Kane Rai
These threads contain some useful indicators:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=15197
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3252
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64925
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10215
thx Kane, I downloaded a couple of these are pretty good
  • #3,690
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:14am Sep 24, 2008 2:14am
Hi,

Just to say well done with the new blog, great stuff. Its been a pleasure reading your articles and insights on the market absolutely priceless
  • #3,691
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:24am Sep 24, 2008 3:24am
Quoting finswin56
JMO, but I don't want my calls anywhere near BRV's. No need to sully his like that. If we're not tracking anymore, that's fine. We can all still share our trade plans here.
ayeyayyay finswin gotta give yourself a little more credit than that! Yeah the idea is to post post post and keep the trades flowing I just have my own little monster there now thats all....but Ive taken trades on what others have listed in here and I cant complain this thread has been good to me too
  • #3,692
  • Edited 3:43am Sep 24, 2008 3:26am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting Siam
Hi,

Just to say well done with the new blog, great stuff. Its been a pleasure reading your articles and insights on the market absolutely priceless
no problemo goes both ways.....by the way Im aching for a breakout here anyone else getting frustrated?
  • #3,693
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:47am Sep 24, 2008 3:47am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
ayeyayyay finswin gotta give yourself a little more credit than that! Yeah the idea is to post post post and keep the trades flowing I just have my own little monster there now thats all....but Ive taken trades on what others have listed in here and I cant complain this thread has been good to me too
Hello BRV,

I tried to subscribe to your blog via e-mail but I don't think anything happened. You may need to check that functionality.

Regards,

Update: I think the feedblitz server might be playing up. I'll try again later.
  • #3,694
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:50am Sep 24, 2008 3:50am
Quoting 4Xfactor
Hello BRV,

I tried to subscribe to your blog via e-mail but I don't think anything happened. You may need to check that functionality.

Regards,
yeah they're having server issues tonight (feedblitz - they run the subscription list) - but theyre one of the top 3 and are really good normally. I dont want to change it because Ive got everyone else stored in there now I think they might need a day to get their stuff together - sorry for that - maybe check on it tomorrow - but it works normally Ive been getting them fine up until tonight - keep you posted
  • #3,695
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:05am Sep 24, 2008 8:05am
Quoting 4Xfactor
Hello BRV,

I tried to subscribe to your blog via e-mail but I don't think anything happened. You may need to check that functionality.

Regards,

Update: I think the feedblitz server might be playing up. I'll try again later.
Right at the bottom of the page it says:

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)

I tried that and copied the resulting http address into my Sage-Too rss reader. (That's a free Firefox Add-on.) It works very well. No need for emails.

Hope that might help.
  • #3,696
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:22am Sep 24, 2008 8:22am
Quoting lemmingboiv2
No damnit. . . you are Eddie Murphy. . . .do you hear me? DO not ruin my mental picture of you!!!
  • #3,697
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:40pm Sep 24, 2008 1:40pm
1.09 resistance
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  • #3,698
  • Edited 1:51pm Sep 24, 2008 1:49pm | Edited 1:51pm
I'm a support and resistance trader too. Just found your thread though. Any comments on USD/CAD on the daily?

Looks to me like a good entry on the break of this tight range (look at a 5 min chart, it is consolidating now), as it has hit a support level that is previously a resistance level.

Comments?
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  • #3,699
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:16pm Sep 24, 2008 2:16pm
Ok FINALLY here it is my multi-timeframe S/R Zone Indicator !

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How it works

 

  1. S/R levels are calculated using Fractals - you can define how many bars are required to make up a fractal via the input parameters FractalBars. Fractals are calculated in 4 timeframes, 15 Min, 60 Min, 240 Min and 1 Day. If the chart is running on a timeframe higher than one or more of the Fractal timeframes, Fractals are not calculated on the chart for that Fractal timeframe, e.g. if you are running the chart on a 1 Hour timeframe then 15 Min Fractals are not calculated.

  1. Once the S/R levels are calculated separate support and resistance counters are maintained for the level (as a Fractal can be both Support and Resistance).

  1. The support counter for a Fractal is updated by the value you enter in the Battered input parameter each time it is touched from above and updated by the amount you enter in the Breached parameter each time is it crossed from above. NOTE a Breach occurs when a bar in the chart timeframe crosses the support level.

  1. Similarly, The Resistance counter for a Fractal is updated by the value you enter in the Battered input parameter each time it is touched from below and updated by the amount you enter in the Breached parameter each time is it crossed from below.

  1. Once a Support counter reaches the input parameter value BBLimit the Fractal levels ceases to be a valid Support level, similarly once a Resistance counter reaches BBLimit is ceases to be a valid Resistance level. This allows you define how S/R levels breakdown as they are breached and battered over time - as BRV originally said the more a level is hit the less likely it is to hold in the future.

  1. Often you may have a number of S/R levels from different timeframes clustered together, the input parameter ClusterWidth allows you to define what is 'close', so if you feel 10 pips is close enough to be considered in the same zone set the ClusterWidth and the fractal levels will be grouped together into a single S/R zone.

What is Drawn

On start up, the expert advisor looks back for all previous fractals in the 4 timeframes and calculates the S/R levels, these are shown on the chart. Blue is support, Red is Resistance. Only the immediate Support/Resistance each side of the opening price of a bar are shown since these are of most interest during the life of the bar.

On the first tick of a new bar in the chart timeframe, current S/R levels are updated where they have been Battered and or Breached and they may no longer valid (if the BBLimit has been reached). Then the next S/R levels either side of the opening price of the bar are drawn. This gives you the local S/R levels (zones) in real-time. When you see a big block or Red or Blue this is a zone made up of a number of S/R levels.

The last input parameter DrawFractalLines allows you to draw the underlying S/R levels that are being used to calculated the S/R zones. It can be useful to see them all - certainly as you get used to the look and feel of things.

To Install

Put the code in the Expert Advisor directory and then drag it onto your chart from the navigation area. It takes a minute or two to start up as it has to do a lot of calculation when it starts up ...

All feedback appreciated ... especially that regarding the best parameters to use for given pairs. I am going off to play with an AutoTrader now!


Best

Paul

p.s I have also written anauto trader based on this and it has made over 100 pips today!

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DerivedFractalExpert.ex4   19 KB | 853 downloads
  • #3,700
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:28pm Sep 24, 2008 2:28pm
Quoting Jared
I'm a support and resistance trader too. Just found your thread though. Any comments on USD/CAD on the daily?

Looks to me like a good entry on the break of this tight range (look at a 5 min chart, it is consolidating now), as it has hit a support level that is previously a resistance level.

Comments?
The GBP/USD looks like a possible short entry to me - at a previous Support level 1.8500 now - should become resistance (?) and also at the 38.2% retracement level of the down trend.

I am sure this is NOT a 'no brainer' but FEEDBACK appreciated.

Thanks.
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