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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,101
  • Edited 4:03am Sep 24, 2008 1:01am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting Alpe
I have experience this mistake twice where the SL was touch by 1 pip....1 PIP!!! and it go my way..... Enter right after the close of 0:00 hour candle at 1.4382 with SL at 1.4413. I should have placed my sl above the high of 0:00 candle.



Alpe
usually at this CT cases, I often enter with only half lots to double my sl, the high probabillity trade is CT with a big MACD and a long tail before, if there isn't a long tail before, price often goes back and makes a tail which touches you sl leve and goes down. I did enter this CT with my management and made 60/2=30 pips
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,102
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:32am Sep 24, 2008 4:32am
where from here now, will them test the 21ema before makes its move?
  • #17,103
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:38am Sep 24, 2008 4:38am
On GU a bullish TC might be forming from EMA8 and broken upper trendline (my) (20 min left). But signal bar closes near previous highs and possible resistance and SL - if to place it below signal bar's low - is too big. So either no trade (what I'm likely to do) or putting SL below the low of last bar on 1H or dividing SL to 2 parts is needed.

Next - if price breaks upwards through thick brown resistance - will wait for a possible retest to buy, or if the TC appears to be false and price retraces deeper to EMA21 - then will be looking for a long trade from there.

Any thoughts?
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  • #17,104
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:42am Sep 24, 2008 4:42am
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  • #17,105
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:45am Sep 24, 2008 4:45am
Quoting Yorik
On GU a bullish TC might be forming from EMA8 and broken upper trendline (my) (20 min left). But signal bar closes near previous highs and possible resistance and SL - if to place it below signal bar's low - is too big. So either no trade (what I'm likely to do) or putting SL below the low of last bar on 1H or dividing SL to 2 parts is needed.

Next - if price breaks upwards through thick brown resistance - will wait for a possible retest to buy, or if the TC appears to be false and price retraces deeper to EMA21 - then will be looking for a long trade from there.

Any thoughts?
I was also watching this earlier, but the 1H seems to be slowing and I think it would be too risky with previous highs above and a psych level 8600.
  • #17,106
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:46am Sep 24, 2008 4:46am
I didn't trade with this way, but this is the best way that has best management of yesterday's CT I think.

You shouln't enter trade after MACD siganl and wait 4h has formed a haning man, which has the same power of shooting star, but 1h has formed a engulf pattern, so it is better to wait for another 2hs until 1h chart showed a morning star, this is the best entry point where you can set least sl with high probablitiy trade. Even though price went up again after that with 70-80 pips, but this should give you 30pips with full lots.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 32 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,107
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:51am Sep 24, 2008 4:51am
Quoting Yorik
On GU a bullish TC might be forming from EMA8 and broken upper trendline (my) (20 min left). But signal bar closes near previous highs and possible resistance and SL - if to place it below signal bar's low - is too big. So either no trade (what I'm likely to do) or putting SL below the low of last bar on 1H or dividing SL to 2 parts is needed.

Next - if price breaks upwards through thick brown resistance - will wait for a possible retest to buy, or if the TC appears to be false and price retraces deeper to EMA21 - then will be looking for a long trade from there.

Any thoughts?
Yorik, my chart doesn't same as yours, it definitely didn't become green on my chart. I use MIG's metatrader demo version.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,108
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:56am Sep 24, 2008 4:56am
Quoting saka
Yorik, my chart doesn't same as yours, it definitely didn't become green on my chart. I use MIG's metatrader demo version.
Though Alpari (mine) and MIG's charts are both GMT+1, they seem to have some slight differences in quotes - I remember at least once when there was a TC on MIG and no - on Alpari.

But at the moment last MACD bar is just 3..5 pips higher than the previous and sometimes dissappear so that might be the simplier explanation.
  • #17,109
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:59am Sep 24, 2008 4:59am
Quoting Yorik
Though Alpari (mine) and MIG's charts are both GMT+1, they seem to have some slight differences in quotes - I remember at least once when there was a TC on MIG and no - on Alpari.

But at the moment last MACD bar is just 3..5 pips higher than the previous and sometimes dissappear so that might be the simplier explanation.
I remember Phillip has created his strategy from MT4 for 2 years, I think this is much better as a observe platform.

And I also think that Canlde pattern always has much more sensitivity that MACD signal. We can enter with this and if 1h shows some pattern, that' better.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,110
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:23am Sep 24, 2008 5:23am
Hi All,

Have been reading this thread for quite some time but not posted much.

I need help in Entry and Exit strategy in EU. So many times I have seen my +150 pips become -50. So, by and large I am bale to read the trend but my biggest problem is where to book profit. Can someone help me with this.
  • #17,111
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:50am Sep 24, 2008 5:50am
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  • #17,112
  • Sep 24, 2008 5:59am Sep 24, 2008 5:59am
Quoting hifundu
Hi All,

Have been reading this thread for quite some time but not posted much.

I need help in Entry and Exit strategy in EU. So many times I have seen my +150 pips become -50. So, by and large I am bale to read the trend but my biggest problem is where to book profit. Can someone help me with this.
By letting a +150 profit go to a -50 loss it means no target planning was made before the position was open.

Someone can have 20trades open and be +2000 pips but have nothing gained as long as the trades are still open. He can not even count those pips unless he closes the position and have it in is account. Then he has made money.

You must work out something and there are a lot written about targets in this thread. You got to have targets and if reached and the price still go further then it is bonus. I will never let a position that went past my target turn around and then let it goes below my target. Scale out by closing partially as the price retraced.
  • #17,113
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:15am Sep 24, 2008 6:15am
The question I am asking for myself is how was the rhythm prior to the signal candle. I think it speaks for itself. For me a NO GO!!!!! Resistance just above the signal candle as well.

It might go to the upside due to the sort of round bottom on price action but as far as I am concern it is not a high probability trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17,114
  • Edited 7:25am Sep 24, 2008 7:12am | Edited 7:25am
a TC is very possible.looking for the H1 for possible early entry after breakout
edit:seems price breaked up that TL few minutes after i posted.i hope it has a pull back to give us an entry point
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #17,115
  • Sep 24, 2008 7:12am Sep 24, 2008 7:12am
Hi Phillip. I dont have a signal TC on my 4 hour GU yet however there is a weekly trend line where price is now.
The first chart is the 4 hour . Notice how price is uncertain around it mostly with resistance.
The second chart shows the trend line on a weekly chart . it was previous support and now could act as possible resistance. Also news at 10 am and Bernake speaks again around that time. So there could be volatility again.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu resistance 1.jpg Size: 210 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu resistance 2.jpg Size: 192 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #17,116
  • Sep 24, 2008 7:43am Sep 24, 2008 7:43am
hey guys ,

I don't know if this system works good with this pair as well , but I would like to ask if the current candle will close like now on the chart attached , and we can see that the MACD shows back from zero ... will it be ok to enter short on the opening of the next candle as a trend continuation ?

hope for soon replys as the next candle will open in 15 min...

thanks .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 44.gif Size: 61 KB
  • #17,117
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:02am Sep 24, 2008 8:02am
Quoting Barak's pip
hey guys ,

I don't know if this system works good with this pair as well , but I would like to ask if the current candle will close like now on the chart attached , and we can see that the MACD shows back from zero ... will it be ok to enter short on the opening of the next candle as a trend continuation ?

hope for soon replys as the next candle will open in 15 min...

thanks .
Sure does. It's usually moves in the opposite direction of the EURO, which is tailor made for this system. You could wait for a retrace or go short with a big stop.
Looks like a promising trade though.
  • #17,118
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:06am Sep 24, 2008 8:06am
Quoting Hookem28
Sure does. It's usually moves in the opposite direction of the EURO, which is tailor made for this system.

thanks ,

so , is it high probabillity trade to your opinion ? since the price supported by 21 ema and the MACD shows TC , or it's better to skip such a trade ?

thank you.
  • #17,119
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:09am Sep 24, 2008 8:09am
Quoting Barak's pip
hey guys ,

I don't know if this system works good with this pair as well , but I would like to ask if the current candle will close like now on the chart attached , and we can see that the MACD shows back from zero ... will it be ok to enter short on the opening of the next candle as a trend continuation ?

hope for soon replys as the next candle will open in 15 min...

thanks .
it is the reverse of eurusd situation ,im looking for a entry place in eurusd in smaller TF to reduce my SL size.so ,if there is a sell signal in usdchf with good stoploss i think u can enter .
  • #17,120
  • Sep 24, 2008 8:19am Sep 24, 2008 8:19am
Quoting Barak's pip
thanks ,

so , is it high probabillity trade to your opinion ? since the price supported by 21 ema and the MACD shows TC , or it's better to skip such a trade ?

thank you.
Just my analysis,
I would wait for a retrace because of the tail at 1.0806. It will probably retrace a bit even if its on its way down. Then you could take some profit without it going through that resistance point. And it would reduce your Stop loss risk. That's just the way I would trade it.
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