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go live or bust ... diary of an fx live-trader-wannabe

  • #21
  • Edited Sep 23, 2008 12:00am Sep 22, 2008 11:50pm | Edited Sep 23, 2008 12:00am
Quoting fxgrinder
USDCHF: trailed stop; 34 pips profit locked in on 2% risked
EURUSD: trailed stop; 42 pips profit locked in on 1% remaining (due to operator error ... )
USDCAD: trailed stop; 29 pips profit locked in on 2% risked
GBPUSD: trailed stop to 50% of range; risk is reduced to 1%
NZDUSD: price didn't close higher than friday ... no change in TSL
USDCHF: stuck at key support level of 10731; if it breaks, 10624 is next support level
EURUSD: next resistance area is 4951-4967; could bounce here & retrace/continue short (back to the .43's?)
GBPUSD: price is supported at 8517, but sandwiched b/w that level & 8602 which is both technical and psychological resistance (round number)...
USDCAD: stuck at thick floor of support to 10321, breaking shorter should create a nice slide to 10247; resistance at 10376-10410
NZDUSD: price is supported at 6823-6840; if it holds, there is no real resistance to the upside for a while... WOOHOOOOO
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #22
  • Edited 6:32pm Sep 23, 2008 1:24pm | Edited 6:32pm
paulson/bernanke-style economics & waiting for approval seems to have put the market in a funk ... so, it's no wonder there are 10+ pairs forming IB's. as of 11am PST, they are:

1. euro majors: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF (i have open trades & will not place additional orders off the IB's)
2. yen majors: USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY (PA on crosses seems to be signaling more long than short, but not so for USD ... if IB's hold, take a 2nd look here)
3. crosses: GBPCHF, CHFJPY, CADJPY (also RP - bearish), EURCAD, AUDNZD (GBPCHF & EURCAD seem t/b sideways, but considering paper-trading the yen crosses here as breakouts ... AUDNZD broke long off a 3dRP, so take a 2nd look here later)

other PA:

EURGBP: RP signal in dxn of short sentiment, but in no man's land s/r-wise
AUDUSD: RP signal in dxn of short sentiment, but bear momentum exhausted; also, aussie fundy's solid despite US mess. im passing on this one.
USDCAD: doji-ish bullish PB ... if it closed above 10374, it could create problems for my short trade, but, recent CAD economic releases not unfavourable. we shall wait & see & stick to TSL strategy.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #23
  • Edited 3:07pm Sep 23, 2008 2:54pm | Edited 3:07pm
Quoting fxgrinder
RP indicating further price action short. it is w/ the present trend/sentiment. exhaustion analysis: ADX is technically falling, but not from 40/50/60 levels; DM- is above 20; DM+ is not below 10, but it is falling. my conclusion -- momentum is not exhausted (& bears are not as strong as, but stronger than, bulls).

s/r analysis (bonus) ... my rules for entry put me into this trade after price breaks through 10495 support level ... after that, next support level at 10376 --- which if it can break and close below that level, will give me a breakeven trade and i'll be freerolling. US gov't goofy socialist fundamentals create resistance for price to go up. all in all, i like this trade. (good luck to me)
this pair was on my watchlist as a potential IB ... 1 hour before closing bell, and the IB is still holding. additionally, price has made a double bottom where price probably won't close higher (TBL), which is another PA signal for a breakout/continuation move shorter.

also, upon review of fundamental reports from several sources and BoJ (this is interesting: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/release/adhoc/mok0809b.pdf and this http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/ronbun/mkr/mkr0809.htm) ... i am dollar bearish ... im no hot shot fundamental strategist, but hell, i do have a 50/50 shot of being correct!!!

im not a big fan of entering market from the break of IB nor of using the other end of the IB as the SL ... since PA didn't get up enuf momentum to reach my entry point from the RP, im going to compromise and enter off the range of the TBL. (if IB holds, good luck to me)
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #24
  • Edited Sep 24, 2008 2:19am Sep 23, 2008 3:41pm | Edited Sep 24, 2008 2:19am
gettin' close to the closing bell & im really uncertain about the remaining PA from my watchlist that may form

1. AUDNZD ... very ambiguous. sentiment is short, but momentum/price action is more sideways than anything. both aussie & kiwi remain steadfast in maintaining confident positions in their economies despite US financial crisis. all i have showing for anything definitive is support from 2108 - 2040 areas & prior bullish PA off the 3dRP. papertrade this long. [enter 2286; SL 2154]

2. GBPJPY/EURJPY ... im confused. price is supported to the upside, but yen is quite bearish longer term and this recent spike is starting to look more corrective in nature. papertrade these long. [EURJPY: enter 15652; SL 15429 & GBPJPY: enter 19681; SL 19472]

3. CHFJPY ... more confusion. pair seems caught sideways b/w s/r. papertrade long as true breakout. [enter 9848; SL 9691]

4. CADJPY ... no clue. not even enuf to papertrade.

sheesh ... im not overtrading ... what's wrong w/ me????
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #25
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:05pm Sep 23, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting fxgrinder
USDCHF: trailed stop; 34 pips profit locked in on 2% risked
EURUSD: trailed stop; 42 pips profit locked in on 1% remaining (due to operator error ... )
USDCAD: trailed stop; 29 pips profit locked in on 2% risked
GBPUSD: trailed stop to 50% of range; risk is reduced to 1%
NZDUSD: price didn't close higher than friday ... no change in TSL
no change in TSL's for any of these trades.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #26
  • Sep 23, 2008 6:48pm Sep 23, 2008 6:48pm
looked a little more at the EURCAD ... i think it's got more potential than i gave it credit for earlier when i dismissed the pair as sideways. sentiment is short & correlates to USDCAD short trade im in. price is not technically exhausted under my rules & bears are in a breakout range w/ bulls gaining no momentum since trading week began. there is s/r at 5196 that price couldn't close below ... so it's support, but opened above a resistance level at 5277 and dipped below there. true to ADX, it's waiting to break out. also, taking a look at the 4hr chart, the ADX is primed to break out according to both the ADX/DM feel, but also, per crossover/EPR (crossed at a low of 5198 at 1600hrs & broke through that low on the 2000hr bar). closing below 5198 would be ideal & will have to wait until 6pm (broker 0400hr) to find out how this one will pan out. RRR 1:1 is very near the next support level at 5025.

my preference would be to wait until price closes below 5198, but i am making an educated gamble on this one due to the fact i will not be around to wait this out (in case it doesn't work out & i wonder what the hell i was thinking). .... also meets my general rule to trade IB's w/ the sentiment when momentum is not exhausted.

good luck to me.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #27
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:14am Sep 24, 2008 2:14am
Quoting fxgrinder
came across this too ... posting it here so i remember to read it.

http://www.bkforexadvisor.com/freere...ort_index.aspx
further study for myself: http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?t=610
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #28
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:56pm Sep 24, 2008 1:56pm
active demo trades:

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, NZDUSD ... no change; if USDCAD closes below 10345, TSL will be moved to 10432 ...

passed on trades:

GBPCHF broke long (against the sentiment), but not by much;
CADJPY broke long, but price is back w/in the range of the IB;
AUDUSD no break of the RP
EURGBP broke short in direction of the sentiment, but was contrary to the PA signal (pay attention to these TBH, TBL PA's ... angle --- if 1st bar closes higher & 2nd bar closes lower (but not necessarily lower than the 1st bar's low) ... this could be a short signal. papertrade this formation w/ future similar PA (or vice versa)

pending orders placed on demo:

USDJPY IB short didn't trigger, but broke long & didn't go anywhere
EURCAD IB triggered & is in the black; if it closes below 5174, TSL will be moved to reduce risk to 1%

papertrades, see next post
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #29
  • Sep 24, 2008 2:05pm Sep 24, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting fxgrinder
1. AUDNZD ... very ambiguous. sentiment is short, but momentum/price action is more sideways than anything. both aussie & kiwi remain steadfast in maintaining confident positions in their economies despite US financial crisis. all i have showing for anything definitive is support from 2108 - 2040 areas & prior bullish PA off the 3dRP. papertrade this long. [enter 2286; SL 2154]

order triggered, presently in the red at 2196
2. EURJPY/GBPJPY ... im confused. price is supported to the upside, but yen is quite bearish longer term and this recent spike is starting to look more corrective in nature. papertrade these long. [EURJPY: enter 15652; SL 15429 & GBPJPY: enter 19681; SL 19472]

EURJPY: not triggered
GBPJPY: order triggered presently in the red at 19609
3. CHFJPY ... more confusion. pair seems caught sideways b/w s/r. papertrade long as true breakout. [enter 9848; SL 9691]

CHFJPY: not triggered
instincts to papertrade only was right on. confidence booster. will see these trades thru tho to see how they all play out.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #30
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:40pm Sep 24, 2008 3:40pm
GBPUSD ... price has broken thru support at 8517 (doesn't bode well for my long ...
USDCHF ... price has zipped above support-turned-resistance level at 10886 (doesn't bode well for my short, but i do have some profit locked in)
USDCAD ... potential IB; sentiment is bullish, but exhausted ... fundy's provide resistance for upside as CAD considered strong in this short term (& long term some say heading toward parity -- time will tell on that one)
EURCAD ... 3BL (w/in 4 pips) that couldn't close higher; also 1st closed higher, but will finish lower (bodes well for my short trade off the IB)

potential set-ups &/or PA observations

EURGBP ... double bottom (2BL), price couldn't close higher than prior high (also, under my PA forward test, price closed higher and now lower = b/o short?); regardless of either way i look at PA, trading this 3BL will run me straight into support levels b/f i have a chance to move my TSL to b/e ... not good RRR; prolly a pass

GBPCHF ... DM crossover, price will have to break high of 20234 b/f confirming a long position; so some reason, not a big fan of this one either

GBPJPY ... untradeable PB

AUDUSD ... IB, sentiment is short & exhausted, but waiting to b/o?; 4hr PA momentum could be a short b/o, & weekly PA is forming a bearish pin --- price has zipped through 8390, & might close below 8350. has room to run to 8162 & dollar does seem to have some corrective momentum behind it. if it closes below 8338 (the RP strength $) this might be worth considering.

EURAUD ... IB & 2BH that cant close lower, (but according to my forward testing experiment, price will close lower than previous close ... shrug) ... sentiment is bullish, but exhausted ... strong bullish trend in weekly, not exhausted & resistance has created support at 7448-7355 ... but, sandwiched here w/ resistance beginning at 7695. not great RRR, prolly best to K.I.S.S & stick to my rules!!
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #31
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:15pm Sep 24, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting fxgrinder
AUDUSD ... IB, sentiment is short & exhausted, but waiting to b/o?; 4hr PA momentum could be a short b/o, & weekly PA is forming a bearish pin --- price has zipped through 8390, & might close below 8350. has room to run to 8162 & dollar does seem to have some corrective momentum behind it. if it closes below 8338 (the RP strength $) this might be worth considering.
closing price 8341 ... 3 shy of the preferred close at 8338, but is below 8350. however, oil is up, gold is up ... creating supportive fundy's which dips into my RRR (TSL moved to break even right at a serious area of support which will prolly give it the boost it needs to proceed long). im going to pass.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #32
  • Edited 5:53pm Sep 24, 2008 4:46pm | Edited 5:53pm
this about sums up the reason my active trades are flat/stalling

from actionforex:

"Markets remain pretty steady today as traders are still holding their bets before conclusion of the approval of Paul's rescue package. Yen was mildly lower earlier today on news that Warren Buffett will invest in Goldman Sachs but gives back earlier gains as US stock markets open lower. Dollar continues to trade in tight range against most majors. As discussed before, as we're expecting dollar to bottom out near to current level in most pairs and in the dollar index, attention will continue to be on reversal signal."

and also:

"President Bush will also be giving a nationally televised address on the financial crisis on tonight. Although we do not expect any groundbreaking announcements, his comments could nonetheless be somewhat market moving for the US dollar."
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #33
  • Sep 24, 2008 9:37pm Sep 24, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting fxgrinder
further study for myself: http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?t=610
done. it's an announcement trading strategy. good on him. dont see any potential to combine w/ my stuff at this juncture.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #34
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:37pm Sep 25, 2008 4:37pm
EURUSD ... stopped out at 1st TP level (1%)
USDCHF ... stopped out at 1st TP level (2%)
USDCAD ... TSL moved to 2nd TP level (2%) for 115 pips locked in
GBPUSD, NZDUSD ... no change
EURCAD ... TSL at b/e (2%)
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #35
  • Sep 25, 2008 4:42pm Sep 25, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting fxgrinder
1. AUDNZD ... very ambiguous. sentiment is short, but momentum/price action is more sideways than anything. both aussie & kiwi remain steadfast in maintaining confident positions in their economies despite US financial crisis. all i have showing for anything definitive is support from 2108 - 2040 areas & prior bullish PA off the 3dRP. papertrade this long. [enter 2286; SL 2154]

2. GBPJPY... im confused. price is supported to the upside, but yen is quite bearish longer term and this recent spike is starting to look more corrective in nature. papertrade these long. [EURJPY: enter 15652; SL 15429 & GBPJPY: enter 19681; SL 19472]
AUDNZD ... no change
GBPJPY ... no change
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #36
  • Edited 10:42pm Sep 25, 2008 5:21pm | Edited 10:42pm
instincts tell me 1st & best course of action is to stay clear of the market pending some better sense of direction after the bailout situation ... however, in keeping w/ my study, here's the PA report for thursday, 9-25-08:

EURUSD ... single bearish outside bar that looks like a pin bar ... bears are exhausted. i think this might be a pass ... needs a 2nd look after review of others
GBPUSD ... single bearish outside bar ... according to crossover/EPR ... this is heading south despite the exhausted bearish momentum ... im already in this long w/ my TSL at 8150; entry off this one would be sooner than the TSL & t/f would break my rules re exit strategy ... this too needs a 2nd look after review of others
USDCHF ... imperfect single bullish outside bar that looks like a pin (reverse situation of the EUR, GBP) ... crossover/EPR is a potential play here too ... 2nd look
EURCHF/GBPCHF have been forming the same b/o pennant ... no clue how to trade these effectively w/o additional PA
GBPJPY ... IB, bearish sentiment w/ exhausted momentum ... ???
EURCAD ... single bearish outside bar ... hurray for my short EURCAD trade that i am presently freerolling ...
AUDUSD ... double inside day that is also a 2BH; price is still below 2 levels of resistance; however, the entry wouldn't trigger until after price climbed past both levels ... i am still bearish the USD, bear momentum is exhausted, but a b/o is pending off congressional action/conduct ... revisit (review notes from yesterday as well) ... [okay, i did revisit: resistance at 8511 ... pass]
AUDNZD ... mini-PB; closed beyond 25%, open beyond 50%, nose not beyond left eye (prior bar's low), nose didn't bounce off support at 2124 (low was 2153), but prior PA was through it & closed above it ... nothing in its way resistance-wise until 2445 (which is merely the monthly pivot) ... price already shot thru potential entry point at 2263, but came right back down from there & formed a PB in the hourly which bounced through resistance and right back down again ... however, price is seriously supported beginning at 2160 which makes any play off the hourly a break even, but may just be the retrace needed to get in from the bounce ... im hemming and hawing about this one & given the present economic environment and waiting around, maybe just pass & find a better spot next week.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #37
  • Edited Sep 26, 2008 12:24pm Sep 25, 2008 9:01pm | Edited Sep 26, 2008 12:24pm
spending a little time finding out what all the fuss is about over there on j16 re the "ryan" trades ... i went back over some of the threads. think this is the gist of his trading method:

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331&page=342

i think he uses 21 setting -- which represents a month of trading data on a daily chart & has been a personal preference/favourite of mine for many settings (e.g. my ADX)

also saw on actionforex.com where analyst uses overlapping BB ... 1 w/ 2 SD's & 1 w/ a wider SD (i'm guessing it's 3) ... going to integrate this w/ some "ryan-type" trades and visually back-test adding ryan analysis to my own and/or trading hourlies at london w/ dg ... but we'll see.

back to j16 to find some more clues about ryan-trades. will add any relevant posts.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #38
  • Sep 25, 2008 9:35pm Sep 25, 2008 9:35pm
not a big fan of the RSI (for use w/ divergence or otherwise), but same result was accomplished using the divergence cheat sheet indicator ...

areas in purple are samples of BB extreme trading w/ divergence. interesting!!

"A" connotes place where trading from a bounce of mid-BB w/ the trend was a loss unless profit-taking was immediate (but why would you aim for the same amount of pips/% in the daily as in the 5min?) ... i got caught up in this trade also, but the analysis for why i thought it was a poor trade on my part is in post above.

not sure if he trades just off pin bars or uses other PA to enter his trades.

.... i guess im back to the j16 thread to figure it out ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #39
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:05pm Sep 26, 2008 5:05pm
pin bar spotted. technically its good & the nose bounced off/thru support level (15365) but couldn't close above the one above it (15524) (creating resistance) ... however, entry is above this resistance level & next resistance is where i could move my TSL to 1st TP level. bear momentum is exhausted, however, bear strength has shifted again (rising above 20) ...

[curiously, this pin is bouncing off mid-BB ... ryan-trading dictates trade should be taken w/ the trend ... which is short ...]

tradeable? it's a close call ... given the fact the market still appears frozen in time, i might just keep waiting for the dust to settle. intervention-ist economics have frequently been undertaken over the weekends lately so maybe i will reassess on sunday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 18 KB
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #40
  • Sep 26, 2008 5:09pm Sep 26, 2008 5:09pm
similar set-up to the EURJPY, in a little better shape support-wise, but the same issue w/ bear strength having made a small come-back.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
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