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New Mouteki Method...

  • #921
  • Sep 23, 2008 4:19am Sep 23, 2008 4:19am
Quoting ozziedave
Her ya go folks. The CHF has taken out the 610 fib zone on the down move and is starting to head back up to possibly the 377 fib zone.

Now I've dropped down to the 5 min chart so you can see the reversal unfold to the up side. I've pulled my fib zones to the upside from 1.0686. Note that we have fib retracement respect early on (orange fib). Then we come up and take out the 144 fib zone. It looks like we may get a pull back below the 144 fib zone and then a push up to the 233 fib zone. This is very early but you should be able to see how you might trade the retracement back up to the 233 fib zone. If we reach the 233 fib zone the next push would take us to the 377 fib zone @ 1.1065 which just happens to be a few pips away from the 377 fib zone on the way down. I find that very intereting.
Good stuff.

Nice intraday opportunities!
  • #922
  • Sep 23, 2008 5:27am Sep 23, 2008 5:27am
Quoting jlmac27
....10 different experts....10 diferent theories?
Exactly. Each trader should trade his logic.

Mouteki's Fibo systems is a road map, not a bus route. By determining the location via D1, H4 and H1, one can then use price action to identify the nearest bus stop and decide which bus to board. Some people board using M5, some M15, some H1 (or even H4).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #923
  • Sep 23, 2008 5:32am Sep 23, 2008 5:32am
Quoting j84
anyone tried this on 1 min chart (using 1h or 4h as the higher view and fibo zone 13,21,34,55,89) ?

I prefer lower TF simply becoz

(1) No affected by fundamental

(2) Loss less than 50 pips per trade

(3) Able to watch it unfold in less than 24 hours

Trading on higher TF like 4h/daily chart means to be able to take over 100 pips lost and more time is needed to watch is unfold.

If a system works, i bet it work on all TF ?

My point is, anyone tried this on lower TF (1min/5mins/15mins) ?
Lower timeframe - it depends on how you use it. For many people M1 and M5 is a police siren (lights), blinking on/off too rapidly to make sense. H1 and H4 are traffic lights: you have time to digest the lights change and react; you can still have an accident even if you drive on green, but you are more likely to be safe.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #924
  • Edited 6:20am Sep 23, 2008 6:00am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting j84
anyone tried this on 1 min chart (using 1h or 4h as the higher view and fibo zone 13,21,34,55,89) ?

I prefer lower TF simply becoz

(1) No affected by fundamental

(2) Loss less than 50 pips per trade

(3) Able to watch it unfold in less than 24 hours

Trading on higher TF like 4h/daily chart means to be able to take over 100 pips lost and more time is needed to watch is unfold.

If a system works, i bet it work on all TF ?

My point is, anyone tried this on lower TF (1min/5mins/15mins) ?
I tend to disagree...

1. News certainly kill! Seen the spikes on lower TFs? why is fundamentals not a player in lowerTF? In fact, I feel the spikes hardly affect the higher TF since price usually corrects. Of coz if u r careful enuf not to trade during any news release your point would be valid.

2. trading higher TF does not equate higher stoploss! depends on ur trading method. Anyway if the risk to return ratio is good, why not?

3. I trade the 4H TF mainly, most of my trades are closed within 24 hours, 20 hrs is more than enough for a good pair to move 200 pips in any direction when vol is healthy during london and asian session.

That said, I have not tried mouteki's method on the lower tfs. But if harmony exists in higher tfs, or rather, in higher fib sequences, then there is reason to believe that it should exist in lower sequences. IE. the move to the 144/233 should involve multiple fib retracement and expansions on the lower sequences.

perhaps you could ascertain for yourself but i seriously question its risk to reward ratio. You would be targetting a 233 from a retrace from 89? whats ur SL gonna be? under 50 pips? 30? its never gonna be as good as 50 pips for a move from the 233 to 610 or 377 to 987.

Nevertheless, I guess at the end of the day it is up to personality, there are many existing good traders who have done well for the shorter TF, but I am not sure if mouteki's mehtod is for that purpose.

Thanks mouteki!
  • #925
  • Sep 23, 2008 6:26am Sep 23, 2008 6:26am
OzzieDave's post set me thinking and I'm not certain IF we should be mixing the idea of the Red FZs - so far the impulse move with the Blue FZs which are part of the retracement and line up with the white fibs....but the way that they are all overlapping is interesting...
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #926
  • Sep 23, 2008 6:30am Sep 23, 2008 6:30am
Quoting Islander
OzzieDave's post set me thinking and I'm not certain IF we should be mixing the idea of the Red FZs - so far the impulse move with the Blue FZs which are part of the retracement and line up with the white fibs....but the way that they are all overlapping is interesting...
Since I read his post I set a couple entries on the EURUSD they were triggered not too long ago, up about +40 pips on one and +30 on another so far.

Will be interesting to see how they play out.
  • #927
  • Sep 23, 2008 6:40am Sep 23, 2008 6:40am
Quoting j84
anyone tried this on 1 min chart (using 1h or 4h as the higher view and fibo zone 13,21,34,55,89) ?

I prefer lower TF simply becoz

(1) No affected by fundamental

(2) Loss less than 50 pips per trade

(3) Able to watch it unfold in less than 24 hours

Trading on higher TF like 4h/daily chart means to be able to take over 100 pips lost and more time is needed to watch is unfold.

If a system works, i bet it work on all TF ?

My point is, anyone tried this on lower TF (1min/5mins/15mins) ?

As you can see it work, but is very risky, i'm testing 15mins and i've loose a few, and i never loose 1h/4h...., yet.
but is good for pratice.
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  • #928
  • Sep 23, 2008 7:02am Sep 23, 2008 7:02am
Because the market if fractal in nature, fibs can and do work on lower TFs however because the higher TF takes precedence it tends to be less reliable. IMHO (and about a million others) market structure determines where to trade and price action determines when to trade.
  • #929
  • Sep 23, 2008 7:16am Sep 23, 2008 7:16am
good short, and i did'n get in

tanks again MOUKETI.
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  • #930
  • Sep 23, 2008 7:36am Sep 23, 2008 7:36am
Quoting Barak's pip
I wish I can get Mouteki's and you guys opinion on that ...

when I opened the "old" charts of the gbp\usd & usd\chf - the ones with fib tools for a down move , I noticed that price had stopped at a very interesting points :

@ gbp\usd - price stoped @ FZ 233 of the small down move which is FZ 2584 of the huge down move.

@usd\chf - price stoped @ 38.2 fib retracement level

I wonder , is there any signifficance to those levels now , or we no longer use them ? because if they are meaningfull , we can prepair ourself for an up \ down move ?
guys what do you think about that - it can be a nice catch ...? if it old FZ being respected...

in the last video Mouteki said that we are in a move inside a move...
  • #931
  • Sep 23, 2008 7:48am Sep 23, 2008 7:48am
So far my own trading has been mainly day trading during the European Session - 3/4 hours from the Frankfurt Open - 2am ESTand another 3/4 hours from the pre NY open - say 8am EST.

For this I use the 60m and 15m for analysis and usually trade off the 5 min.

So here's how I've seen the past few hours: the 987 FZ was hit late in the US Session, so I'm already finished for the day and enjoying a nice glass - or two - of Rioja. This hit of the FZ makes me look for Sell Signals.

As often happens, the Asian session wasnt very active and price turned at the 61.8% retrace at A. It bounced again into the Frankfurt Open -holding at the 50% level at B and failed again at this level 40 mins later - a clear sell - and I did.

A small rally after the LO failed at the 4750 sweet spot and pushed on down to todays DP level at C where it had 3 bounces before rallying up to yet another 61.8% level - this time an excellent confluence with its 4800 sweet spot and another selling opportunity.

Whilst I've put on the brown FZs for a possible down move, price has been respecting the fib retracements, sweet spots and pivots

Edit: I put up the wrong chart - now updated.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #932
  • Sep 23, 2008 8:42am Sep 23, 2008 8:42am
I typically don't trade off of 5 min charts but this chart shows the early key points in a correction to the upside on the CHF. Just to clarify trend direction of the CHF the major trend is down. Now this may turn into a reversal but it's too early to tell that. If you're like me you hate to sit on your hands to long and let pips just go by the way side because you're waiting for the retrace to end and resume in the major trend direction. So here is what I'll call a scalp trade compared to the kind of pips that Mouteki is going after.

Again, you had the price hit the the 610 fib zone of the down move and it's looking like it wants to retrace back to the 377 fib zone of the down move (I haven't shown these levels on this chart). I've pulled the fib zones from the lowest swing low @1.0686 and price has taken out the 89 fib zone and the 144 fib zone. Price has retraced back down just below the 89 fib zone at point 1. As you can see the yellow fib retracement has held at the 61.8 level. Now I am looking for a reversal and a 1,2, 3 pattern to confirm the continuation of the move to the upside (possibly up to the 233 fib zone or 377 fib zone). Now we get a 1,2,3 pattern, which is a low-point 1 , high-point 2, higher low-point 3. What I am looking for is a break of the last peak of the down move at the aqua arrow @ 1.0788. At point 4 I have my entry @ 1.0788 and I took this up to 1.0820 for +32 pips.

Again, this is just an example of how you can use the fib zones in both directions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #933
  • Sep 23, 2008 9:46am Sep 23, 2008 9:46am
Quoting juicyt
Hi everyone. I'm sure I'm just overlooking it but can anyone point me to the explination of the 233, 377 & 610 lines I see marked on Mouteki's chart? Or explain it yourself for me if you can.

Thanks.
Not sure if this has been answered yet or not, but if you take a look at Mouteki's blog (forexgemini.com) there are 3 sets of videos under the heading Categories. I believe he explains the fib zones in the introduction videos. I would suggest watching and rewatching all the videos--you can learn a lot!! Basically the fib zones (233, 377, 610, etc. . .) are calculated from adding/subtracting these numbers from the high or low. So for example, on the eurusd, the lowest low we had since this move up was 1.3882 (according to my broker). So we start there and add, since we're going up, 3882 + 233 = 4115--so this is your 233 fib zone. And then do the same for the next numbers: 377, 610, 987, 1597. . .

Hope this helps!!
  • #934
  • Sep 23, 2008 9:52am Sep 23, 2008 9:52am
Quoting Barak's pip
guys what do you think about that - it can be a nice catch ...? if it old FZ being respected...

in the last video Mouteki said that we are in a move inside a move...
Yeah I understand what you're saying, but just not sure what the answer is. Sorry!! I guess you could test it and see how it works, though.
  • #935
  • Sep 23, 2008 10:48am Sep 23, 2008 10:48am
I see harmony in this pair for a short with respect to the 38.2 fib level which overlaps the 23.6 fib.

So far i am in profit and waiting for it to hit the 377 level which is also overlaping the fib expansion of 161.8. lets see what happens
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #936
  • Sep 23, 2008 11:13am Sep 23, 2008 11:13am
Quoting Fx Pipin
I see harmony in this pair for a short with respect to the 38.2 fib level which overlaps the 23.6 fib.

So far i am in profit and waiting for it to hit the 377 level which is also overlaping the fib expansion of 161.8. lets see what happens
I'm short on that pair as well.
  • #937
  • Sep 23, 2008 11:14am Sep 23, 2008 11:14am
Quoting Fx Pipin
I see harmony in this pair for a short with respect to the 38.2 fib level which overlaps the 23.6 fib.

So far i am in profit and waiting for it to hit the 377 level which is also overlaping the fib expansion of 161.8. lets see what happens

looks good
  • #938
  • Sep 23, 2008 11:43am Sep 23, 2008 11:43am
another interesting pair
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  • #939
  • Sep 23, 2008 11:46am Sep 23, 2008 11:46am
oh my fu k i n ' god ... eurusd exactly touched the 987...
  • #940
  • Sep 23, 2008 11:54am Sep 23, 2008 11:54am
Quoting Potax
oh my fu k i n ' god ... eurusd exactly touched the 987...
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