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Trend Follower 5 Minute System

  • #2,121
  • Sep 22, 2008 5:13am Sep 22, 2008 5:13am
after the retracement the system gave another long signal. according to what you've said pilatus we shouldn't take it because it's not the beggining of the trend and guppy is not contracted but still it looks like a very good trade.
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  • #2,122
  • Edited 5:39am Sep 22, 2008 5:25am | Edited 5:39am
Quoting pilatus
You are wasting time with EA for this system....sorry if I disappointed you.

Why? I am using the first version of the EA. I wouldn't trade will all the alert (I'm not trading now anyway). Trying get a feel of the EA by looking at the snap shot taken.

Hopefully will get some range market soon so that I know what to look out for. All trading system out there have they own weakness, trending system like this for sure weakness is range market. The EA is just used to alert for any possible trade.

I think those who is able to trade this system successfully is able to identify range market and take a few loss. When in trending market, take every pip possible. It is easy to say it out but not simple to do.

Btw, pilatus are you still trading with this system ?
  • #2,123
  • Sep 22, 2008 7:12am Sep 22, 2008 7:12am
Quoting j84
Why? I am using the first version of the EA. I wouldn't trade will all the alert (I'm not trading now anyway). Trying get a feel of the EA by looking at the snap shot taken.

Hopefully will get some range market soon so that I know what to look out for. All trading system out there have they own weakness, trending system like this for sure weakness is range market. The EA is just used to alert for any possible trade.

I think those who is able to trade this system successfully is able to identify range market and take a few loss. When in trending market, take every pip possible. It is easy to say it out but not simple to do.

Btw, pilatus are you still trading with this system ?
I am trading only this system. Still not succesful as I want to be. Sometimes I loose patient and enter on valid signal but not good one.
Congratulations for mentioning that this system is only for trending condtions. That means you can not take every signal. Look for signal where guppy are contracted which means that you look for signal where is start of some trend or move. There are signals which are valid and good where guppy are expanded, but is hard to recognize them. Today USD/JPY was excelent signal for short. Exit is something different. Best exit is on some pivot level. But for that exit you need to have expirience. If you dont know how to exit or you dont have good feeling for exit, use slope line.
  • #2,124
  • Sep 22, 2008 7:21am Sep 22, 2008 7:21am
One example, of good signal after retrace of range conditions.
This is excelent example how powerfull is this system.
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  • #2,125
  • Sep 22, 2008 9:23am Sep 22, 2008 9:23am
I always believe that in order to make any changes to a system, one must first have success trading the original system. One step at a time, overnight success (making changes and have winning trades) wouldn't last long.
  • #2,126
  • Edited 9:54am Sep 22, 2008 9:34am | Edited 9:54am
I guess this can be helpful for those using trending system.

By nature, trend trading generates far more losing trades than winning trades and requires rigorous risk control. The usual rule of thumb is that trend traders should never risk more than 1.5-2.5% of their capital on any given trade. On a 10,000-unit (10K) account trading 100K standard lots, that means stops as small as 15-25 pips behind the entry price.

When trend traders are correct about the trade, the profits can be enormous. This dynamic is especially true in FX where high leverage greatly magnifies the gains. Typical leverage in FX is 100:1, meaning that a trader needs to put down only $1 of margin to control $100 of the currency. Compare that with the stock market where leverage is usually set at 2:1, or even the futures market where even the most liberal leverage does not exceed 20:1.

It's not unusual to see FX trend traders double their money in a short period if they catch a strong move. Suppose a trader starts out with $10,000 in his or her account, and uses a strict stop-loss rule of 20 pips. The trader may get stopped out five or six times, but if he or she is properly positioned for a large move - like the one in EUR/USD between Sept and Dec 2004 when the pair rose more than 12 cents, or 1,200 pips - that one-lot purchase could generate something like a $12,000 profit, doubling the trader's account in a matter of months.


Trading trend should earn us more than 20 pips per trade ? I feel that this system should TP more than 25 - 30 pips. Any comments ? Of coz the above is taking about higher TF. But I think 5 mins TF should provide us about 40 - 80 pips with a good trade. 20 - 30 pips gain seems like a 1 min TP. Sometimes we place stop at pivot point which restrict the gain to less than 30 pips, if i am not wrong, pivot point are used by range trader. Do we follow restricly with pivot point as a trend trader ?

For now, I will follow pivot point since I am a new guy to this system

Lastly, this is a very true statement and I caution everyone to watch out for this behaviour.

Of course few traders have the discipline to take stop losses continuously. Most traders, dejected by a series of bad trades tend to become stubborn and fight the market, often placing no stops at all. This is when FX leverage can be most dangerous. The same process that quickly produces profits can also generate massive losses. The end result is that many undisciplined traders suffer a margin call and lose most of their speculative capital.

If your style is not into losing (many small lose) more than winning (little big win), than maybe you should consider other forex trading method like range trading which lose less but win more (provided that you have lots of capital to play with)
  • #2,127
  • Sep 22, 2008 1:55pm Sep 22, 2008 1:55pm
Hi all
this is another good trade on Yen
I entered on the candle nest to left lined candle but later there was another valid signal ( the right lined candle)

http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/9769/x3wo3.th.gifhttp://img174.imageshack.us/images/thpix.gif
  • #2,128
  • Sep 22, 2008 2:15pm Sep 22, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting mhemam2005
Hi all
this is another good trade on Yen
I entered on the candle nest to left lined candle but later there was another valid signal ( the right lined candle)

http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/9769/x3wo3.th.gifhttp://img174.imageshack.us/images/thpix.gif
Well done trade. You find out what means guppy contracted. Now ride and enjoy.First signal is not valid. Lagg is not in overbought area. Second one is winning one.
  • #2,129
  • Sep 22, 2008 3:47pm Sep 22, 2008 3:47pm
Pilatus
As I understand the system for the trade to be valid in
mhemam2005

post of the Sep 22, 2008 2:55pm (1 hr 38 min ago), the Laguerre MUST RETRACE through .75 first then go down.
Then all conditions are met to trade.
You say his trade is valid because of the position of the Laguerre. IT did not retrce and come through the .75

I know the point is minor but I have NOT taken trades unless the Laguerre had first passed through the .75

If you are correct then it opens up more trades?

Please advise if I have it wrong.
  • #2,130
  • Sep 22, 2008 7:25pm Sep 22, 2008 7:25pm
My issue with the system is the GUPPY.
How compressed is compressed?
Focusing on the GUPPY compression alone and leaving all other indicators out of the issue - how compressed is compressed?
I wait for all GUPPY colours to compress then move. However, the red being the longest MA, by nature takes the longest to compress.
So how long do we wait for the RED to compress and how compressed?

If it is simply a matter of judgement, I would probably wait until all other colours to be inline and so thick that they almost intermingle BUT leave the red fairly broad.

I have in the past waited for ALL colours to compress then move. But I have seen trades go well with the RED still fairly broad.

Any comments?
  • #2,131
  • Sep 23, 2008 1:59am Sep 23, 2008 1:59am
Quoting Stephan13
Pilatus
As I understand the system for the trade to be valid in
mhemam2005

post of the Sep 22, 2008 2:55pm (1 hr 38 min ago), the Laguerre MUST RETRACE through .75 first then go down.
Then all conditions are met to trade.
You say his trade is valid because of the position of the Laguerre. IT did not retrce and come through the .75

I know the point is minor but I have NOT taken trades unless the Laguerre had first passed through the .75

If you are correct then it opens up more trades?

Please advise if I have it wrong.
read again what I said. FIRST signal is NOT valid coz lag did not cross 0.75 when signal occured. Second one is ok. Must read carefully..
  • #2,132
  • Sep 23, 2008 2:22am Sep 23, 2008 2:22am
Thanks for the reply
Sorry but I still don't understand, the Laguerre never went above the .75 and retrace for the 2nd trade to be valid.
In the Chart the 2nd trade was at 9/22 @ 1940hrs but the Laguerre didn't get above .75.
Obviously, I am missing something fundemental

Thanks anyway for your time.

No need to reply
  • #2,133
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:23am Sep 23, 2008 3:23am
Quoting Stephan13
Thanks for the reply
Sorry but I still don't understand, the Laguerre never went above the .75 and retrace for the 2nd trade to be valid.
In the Chart the 2nd trade was at 9/22 @ 1940hrs but the Laguerre didn't get above .75.
Obviously, I am missing something fundemental

Thanks anyway for your time.

No need to reply
Yes you are right it is not valid signal on that pic example of mhemam. I was looking to my chart and signal was ok. This is my chart.
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  • #2,134
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:25am Sep 23, 2008 3:25am
Hi all,
can this trade be valid signal sell on EJ
what makes me worry is:
1- the green is mixed with the red
2- the candle of the alert is long and start above the guppy ( the lined candle)
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  • #2,135
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:28am Sep 23, 2008 3:28am
Quoting pilatus
Yes you are right it is not valid signal on that pic example of mhemam. I was looking to my chart and signal was ok. This is my chart.


Hi bro,
what is your metatrader broker?
u thunk it is better with our method?
  • #2,136
  • Edited 5:18am Sep 23, 2008 3:47am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting mhemam2005
Hi bro,
what is your metatrader broker?
u thunk it is better with our method?
My broker is IBFX-interbank Fx. Best method is to stick it with the Wickers rules. Everything else is looking for something that in fx market does not exists and that is holy grail. All newbies here want to trade all the time, and want to make zillion pips per week. Or add some new indy that will make this system better. Everything that is not neccessary. All you need is to be PATIENT and wait for perfect set up and then enter and grab what you can.
Stick it to the rules and be disciplined.
Signal on EUR/JPY is valid but dont think that is good one. 1. Signal is against the trend. 2.Price is to choppy. 3. Stop loss is to big. Not perfect set up although it might go short.
  • #2,137
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:50am Sep 23, 2008 3:50am
Quoting pilatus
Ma broker is IBFX-interbank Fx. Best method is to stick it with the Wickers rules. Everything else is looking for something that in fx market does not exists and that is holy grail. All newbies here want to trade all the time, and want to make zillion pips per week. Or add some new indy that will make this system better. Everything that is not neccessary. All you need is to be PATIENT and wait for perfect set up and then enter and grab what you can.
Stick it to the rules and be disciplined.
Signal on EUR/JPY is valid but dont think that is good one. 1. Signal is against the trend. 2.Price is to choppy. 3. Stop loss is to big. Not perfect set up although it might go short.


Thanks a lot for your support and nice comments
  • #2,138
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:59am Sep 24, 2008 1:59am
Hi all,
this is my trade today on USD JPY BUY
the signal on lined candle
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  • #2,139
  • Sep 24, 2008 1:24pm Sep 24, 2008 1:24pm
Hi all,
I hope to get your help as this senario is met many times with me
I am confused about this trade
is this a valid signal?

the reason of this confusion is I do not know the answer of this Q:
if the green and the red is so intermingled like this case, and all other factors is OK, can it be a valid signal?
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  • #2,140
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:13pm Sep 24, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting mhemam2005
Hi all,
I hope to get your help as this senario is met many times with me
I am confused about this trade
is this a valid signal?

the reason of this confusion is I do not know the answer of this Q:
if the green and the red is so intermingled like this case, and all other factors is OK, can it be a valid signal?
Personally I wouldn't take this trade. I think it is a valid signal, but there are other factors coming into play. For one the market has been in a ranging mode for the past two days, so I'm not so confident that our system is running at 100%. The lines aren't really going in the same direction... per say... they are going ... sideways, but green is trying to invade red's space.

So, while it might be a valid signal I wouldn't take it. I've found that massive candles either don't work out or they retrace hard then turn favorable.
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