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  • #841
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:20pm Sep 21, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting Fx Pipin
Actually this pair can really pontentially hit the 61.8 retracement. The reason i think that is becouse there is going to be a negative news event for CAD on Monday @8:30 est Core Retail Sales m/m with a previous of 1.4% and a forcast of 0.3%
Another reason for a 61.8 - 78.6 retrace is the bullish bat pattern which retraces by standard definition 61.8 - 78.6 as objective1 and 127.2 as objective2.
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  • #842
  • Edited 4:56pm Sep 21, 2008 4:37pm | Edited 4:56pm
deanz said- "The catch in my eyes being the USD has been defying fundamental logic....."

We're living through a historical moment that will be debated for decades.

For instance, the markets rallied greatly Friday.

  1. Was it because of the shorting ban?
  2. or was it the shorts unwinding causing the price to skyrocket?
  3. or were people thinking things have gotten better because of the bailout and are moving back in to dollar denominated assets?
  4. If the US is going to bailout the foreign bondholders as well, how will the money flow and what will that do to the dollar vs. the eur,chf,jpy,nzd?
  5. Are traders returning to the carry trade in nzd,aud?
  6. Are traders 'returning to risk' or they all scared shitless and will move to 'safer' currencies like chf?
  7. How are traders balancing the fact that the US is in the tank.... but so are a lot of other countries and are we so interdependent that whatever happens to the dollar so follows the world (remember the saying-"the US sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold").What is the time lag?
  8. Will investors say this intervention has rigged the market and stay out (or move to gold) and how will currencies reflect that withdrawal if it does happen?
  9. If the US intervenes in the currency markets (the PlungeProtectionTeam) how long will it have an effect?

For me at least, these highly unusual times makes it difficult to pick a "fundamental direction" so I am mainly relying on technical analysis and price action.

  • #843
  • Sep 21, 2008 10:03pm Sep 21, 2008 10:03pm
Quoting grAgol4
deanz said- "The catch in my eyes being the USD has been defying fundamental logic....."

We're living through a historical moment that will be debated for decades.

For instance, the markets rallied greatly Friday.

  1. Was it because of the shorting ban?
  2. or was it the shorts unwinding causing the price to skyrocket?
  3. or were people thinking things have gotten better because of the bailout and are moving back in to dollar denominated assets?
  4. If the US is going to bailout the foreign bondholders as well, how will the money flow and what will that do to the dollar vs. the eur,chf,jpy,nzd?
  5. Are traders returning to the carry trade in nzd,aud?
  6. Are traders 'returning to risk' or they all scared shitless and will move to 'safer' currencies like chf?
  7. How are traders balancing the fact that the US is in the tank.... but so are a lot of other countries and are we so interdependent that whatever happens to the dollar so follows the world (remember the saying-"the US sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold").What is the time lag?
  8. Will investors say this intervention has rigged the market and stay out (or move to gold) and how will currencies reflect that withdrawal if it does happen?
  9. If the US intervenes in the currency markets (the PlungeProtectionTeam) how long will it have an effect?

For me at least, these highly unusual times makes it difficult to pick a "fundamental direction" so I am mainly relying on technical analysis and price action.

Wow...that is one of the best posts I have ever read...Good topics for discusssion!!!

I've been thinking about the same things lately...Such good questions, if we only new the answers...
  • #844
  • Sep 22, 2008 1:27am Sep 22, 2008 1:27am
I have entered these two trades here off the retracements.Seem to be valid entry's.
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  • #845
  • Edited 2:50am Sep 22, 2008 2:33am | Edited 2:50am
FX Pipin and Jlmac I am really watching that USD/CAD as well. It is harmonizing very well.

The 144 and 233 Fib zones look strong. The 144 zone overlaps retracement 38.2 and 61.8, while the 233 overlaps 38.2.
Not only that, every single Fib zone has been respected almost to the pip, even the 89 Fib zone.

This is the harmony I like to see. If retracement occurs, a short at Zone 233 seems inevitable.
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  • #846
  • Sep 22, 2008 3:14am Sep 22, 2008 3:14am
Quoting Islander
Some great discussion going on here guys - and it will be great when Mouteki gives some input again.

Here's my updated chart and as we can see, the green uptrend support line was broken and price has traded down in the red channel.

However, I'm not yet ready to jump into the bears camp yet - I'm talking Fib Zonewise, NOT actual tradingwise, as I HAVE been short as I use a 15m chart for entries, WITHIN the overview of the longer TF charts.

For me, until the green 233 Fib Zone support area - actually the 1.4100 area breaks - I still consider this chart a valid set up.....as long as this level - and the green 61.8% retrace are holding.....as always, TWT.....http://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Welcome back Mouteki and thanks for your latest videos.

Here's my updated chart - as we can see, there was perfect respect for the 61.8% support at #6 and this morning there has been a conclusive break of the green 61.8% expansion thus confirming the target as the 987 FZ at 1.4867.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #847
  • Edited 3:42am Sep 22, 2008 3:32am | Edited 3:42am
Quoting Islander
Welcome back Mouteki and thanks for your latest videos.

Here's my updated chart - as we can see, there was perfect respect for the 61.8% support at #6 and this morning there has been a conclusive break of the green 61.8% expansion thus confirming the target as the 987 FZ at 1.4867.
987 is in sight. This week's fudamentals on the USD have dim forecasts (though forecasts are not always correct) and the EURo fundamental forecasts seem more stable than that of the USD. Euro should appreciate versus dollar.

So again 987 is definitely on.

Mouteki, what u think?
  • #848
  • Sep 22, 2008 3:37am Sep 22, 2008 3:37am
There was plenty of good discussion on Friday as to which way the Euro would go - follow valid set ups for a continuation down - or the ones that I was using upwards.

So here's my 15 min chart - I was short on Thursday, following the red channels down to the grey decision zone - the 38% to 61.8% support on my hourly chart.

On Friday, just before the Frankfurt Oen ( dashed white time line) price turned at #6 for a higher low. It retested this area an hour after the LO and set off north, with a nice pull back to its 4200 level as the early New York traders came in.

For me, the green arrows marked clear buy levels on this chart - CONFIRMING the set up from the hourly chart that just shows Mouteki's methodology.

From my shorter TF charts, I can see a similar clarification of the Sell that Mouteki took in the Swissy and at present this helps me a lot to gain confidence around turning points....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Edit: I've been long Euro and Cable and short Swissy in several trades since Friday. In the current highly volatile news driven environnment I'm taking profits and not holding overnight or when I'm away from my 'puter....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #849
  • Sep 22, 2008 4:34am Sep 22, 2008 4:34am
hey guys ,

do you have any potential trade , while wating to the usd\cad to retrace 233 FZ , I've reviewed some pairs - and didn't find anything .. did you find something?

Barak
  • #850
  • Sep 22, 2008 5:02am Sep 22, 2008 5:02am
Quoting Barak's pip
hey guys ,

do you have any potential trade , while wating to the usd\cad to retrace 233 FZ , I've reviewed some pairs - and didn't find anything .. did you find something?

Barak
As I posted earlier, I took longs in the Euro and Cable - as per the current set ups on FX Gemini. Both put in higher lows around the Frankfurt Open and went up well over 100 pips. The Swissy did the reverse and fell 90.

If you're looking to follow the set ups, then its important to watch FO /LO and again before the NY session - this is when good moves often start.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #851
  • Sep 22, 2008 5:15am Sep 22, 2008 5:15am
Quoting Islander
As I posted earlier, I took longs in the Euro and Cable - as per the current set ups on FX Gemini. Both put in higher lows around the Frankfurt Open and went up well over 100 pips. The Swissy did the reverse and fell 90.

If you're looking to follow the set ups, then its important to watch FO /LO and again before the NY session - this is when good moves often start.

thanks ,

actually what I'm trying to do is take a trade as possible as Mouteki , close to the retracements so the stops are close and the TP is far which gives a very nice R:R ratio - this is why I'm waiting tothe usd\cad to respect 233 Fz area , your view is interesting and I'll try to watch the FO LO combined with this system , by now I'm trying to see how it combines with Phillip Nell's 4 hour macd system (looks nice) ...

so , if you see a respect of the FZ FR, let me know...

thanks
  • #852
  • Sep 22, 2008 5:26am Sep 22, 2008 5:26am
If this pair retrace, there is a high probality it will reach Fib Zone 144 which is also the deep retracement of 61.8%
  • #853
  • Sep 22, 2008 5:32am Sep 22, 2008 5:32am
Quoting Harry123
If this pair retrace, there is a high probality it will reach Fib Zone 144 which is also the deep retracement of 61.8%

why do you think it will retrace so deeplly ?

and another interesting detail - gbp\usd , has reached the 100 exp. and I see a bearish divergence on the oscilators ... it will will be interesting to watch the next candles close formation to determine if there is a good chance for a short , that might be also the retrace...
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  • #854
  • Sep 22, 2008 5:36am Sep 22, 2008 5:36am
Quoting Barak's pip
why do you think it will retrace so deeplly ?

and another interesting detail - gbp\usd , has reached the 100 exp. and I see a bearish divergence on the oscilators ... it will will be interesting to watch the next candles close formation to determine if there is a good chance for a short , that might be also the retrace...
I heard Mouteki said that the deep retracement levels of 50% and 61.8% are high probabilty zones for rebounce. Anyway will be keeping an eye on Fib zone 233 as you recommended.
  • #855
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:03am Sep 22, 2008 6:03am
Quoting Harry123
If this pair retrace, there is a high probality it will reach Fib Zone 144 which is also the deep retracement of 61.8%
There is also a high chance that this pair may continue South if it breaks today's low of 1.0433.
  • #856
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:12am Sep 22, 2008 6:12am
Quoting Barak's pip
thanks ,

actually what I'm trying to do is take a trade as possible as Mouteki , close to the retracements so the stops are close and the TP is far which gives a very nice R:R ratio - this is why I'm waiting tothe usd\cad to respect 233 Fz area , your view is interesting and I'll try to watch the FO LO combined with this system , by now I'm trying to see how it combines with Phillip Nell's 4 hour macd system (looks nice) ...

so , if you see a respect of the FZ FR, let me know...

thanks
I guess that in my own way I too am trying to blend what we've learnt so far in the thread with what I've recently been using for my trading.....really I guess that we should have more patience and wait until we have all the info http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

Phillip Nell has done some excellent work on trading systems and i've used some of his ideas from his short TFs so good luck - and +ve pips http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #857
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:26am Sep 22, 2008 6:26am
What are your guy's take on the usd/jyp,and the cad/jyp?
  • #858
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:41am Sep 22, 2008 6:41am
Quoting Harry123
There is also a high chance that this pair may continue South if it breaks today's low of 1.0433.
Retracement started.
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  • #859
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:51am Sep 22, 2008 6:51am
Quoting Islander
I guess that in my own way I too am trying to blend what we've learnt so far in the thread with what I've recently been using for my trading.....really I guess that we should have more patience and wait until we have all the info http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

Phillip Nell has done some excellent work on trading systems and i've used some of his ideas from his short TFs so good luck - and +ve pips http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
I'm thinking untill we will have more details on this method we can try and blend some of the knowledge we do have on the markets with what Mouteki has showed by now ... and the most interesting thing is to see how different methods fits in to the same direction.
  • #860
  • Sep 22, 2008 6:57am Sep 22, 2008 6:57am
Quoting Harry123
Retracement started.
just another interesting point , there is a divergence on the macd
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