Lowen: There's an easy solution to your problem, once you enter a trade, and set a stoploss, you can write some easy code with MT4, like a 2 stage alert/trade, ie. if the price goes below the stop. eg. 1.4200, the code activates the second stage, which when price returns above 1.4300, a buy order is sent, and vice versa, about 20 lines of code i'd say...
Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain
- #5,303
- Sep 20, 2008 5:15pm Sep 20, 2008 5:15pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
According to my charts (below) the long term trend (From 2001, Dark Blue, Anchor Points 2001 & 2005) is still intact even if the 2005-2008 trend (Light Blue) has been broken, then risen back above and the drop is not without precedent (2004-2005, Red Circle) but the swiftness might be.
Also the recent drop (Red) and current rise (Green) are at the same angle of incidence. Does it mean anything? Don't know for sure but if you look at the 2000-2001 area of the chart it shows the similar sharp equal down/up angles before and at the start of the 2001 run.
It is possible that the trend is now continuing, only time will tell for sure.
Given the current global economic problems, the EU seems better off then the US at this time.
An ATR number is dependent on the period and time frame used for the indicator.
The ATR period I use is 7 on a daily chart which results in 268.
My trailing stops are just fine. I have expanded them due to volatility. Still in my trades from Monday.
~~~~
Disclaimer: I do not trade a pure Jacko method but it fits in the 1-3 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425750&postcount=4) on the 4th post.
As for the direction that E/U will take, do some cross-pair analysis and tell me if you change your mind.
Both A/U and N/U which have correlated very strongly with E/U over the long term. Both A/U and N/U preceed the E/U's moves mainly due to the volatility driven by the larger interest rate differentials. Also both these pairs have broken their 2001 TLs... guess what is next.
Also your charts ignore a very strong continuation bear flag on E/U.
If pumping 700 billion into the system, doesn't bring the E/U beyond 1.5, I'm not sure what will.
- #5,305
- Sep 20, 2008 7:25pm Sep 20, 2008 7:25pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
If your system depends on the larger trend supporting your trades, you'll be f@#$%! rather sooner than later.
- #5,307
- Edited 12:17am Sep 21, 2008 12:05am | Edited 12:17am
- | Joined May 2008 | Status: Trader | 762 Posts
I can understand why Jacko doesn't drop by beyond being busy with the Turtles.
It's fine to disagree, but why cut off the discussion so soon at the first sign of a little resistance and contrary opinion.Besides, he ought to show up, as his "turtles" are starting to drown, now that the oh so stable 2005-2008 micro trend on the E/U is either in question or has already gone "bye bye". You look smart for 3 years and then it's back to 9-5. There was also no way of knowing when the E/U would top off in those 3 years, so our friend jacko has been a very successful gamber! Beyond these few years he has had no record of success in forex.
Jacko considers forex trends to be rather stable, and he is right to a certain extent in that it takes a hell of an event to shift sentiment, but once they turn around (ie. 8.8.8) they do so very violently and unpredictably.
I don't doubt that Jacko is a very good trader, however his approach worries me a bit. He started trading forex in 2006, notably the E/U. This was at a time when the increase in interest rates / tax breaks were starting to wear off and the USD resumed its course southward. At the same time his strategy has relied on the general, long-term trend, increasing the probability for success (the "wind at your back" approach). No doubt that this has been a winning stategy until now on the E/U. A glance at the charts will reveal a strong (even somewhat parabolic) upward trend for the Euro from 2006-2008 with very few retracements. However, now what? Can anybody even define the longer term trend on this pair? Seems to me that this method will work until it doesn't. The scary thing is, it can take years until it breaks. Perhaps this is why some jacko followers are starting to lose money...
Thoughts?
Here is the equity curve of one of my LONG ONLY daily systems on the Ozzy/Yen...this is a 400 trade sample taken over 11 years including commission and slippage, way back...from 1987 to 1998.
Looks great, eh.....just for laughs I'll post the second half of the chart tomorrow...
- #5,311
- Sep 21, 2008 4:07pm Sep 21, 2008 4:07pm
Lowen: There's an easy solution to your problem, once you enter a trade, and set a stoploss, you can write some easy code with MT4, like a 2 stage alert/trade, ie. if the price goes below the stop. eg. 1.4200, the code activates the second stage, which when price returns above 1.4300, a buy order is sent, and vice versa, about 20 lines of code i'd say...
I almost knew I'd get blasted the way I entered ... but I did enter
dragon, do u know if there's such a script flying around here somewhere - that method u suggested sounds logical.
well, otherwise I'd dive into mql again..
- maybe there are times when this would result in a risky entry, but this EA u suggested is what I had in my mind.
So how do u guys enter in such situations? often you would have to observe the pair over the whole day, every some hours, to get in manually. Or do u guys use such an EA for situations where the price is still too high..?
ciao
- #5,313
- Sep 21, 2008 9:45pm Sep 21, 2008 9:45pm
hi Lowen, I don't know of any script lying around, but I'm sure you could write up a script easily, say if you enter EURO long at 1.4500, with 100pip SL @ 1.4400... then say if you're using 50pips AH, then you could set a script right away to send a buy order @ 1.4400 which is triggered when price falls below 1.4350, I can imagine the code is probably going to have less than 10-20 lines! 
Well...at the risk of getting hassled...IMHO if you haven't spent time with a testing program like TradeStation or something similar you can be fooled by randomness....to quote Mr Taleb of Black Swan fame.
Here is the equity curve of one of my LONG ONLY daily systems on the Ozzy/Yen...this is a 400 trade sample taken over 11 years including commission and slippage, way back...from 1987 to 1998.
Looks great, eh.....just for laughs I'll post the second half of the chart tomorrow...
You would think, looking at the equity curve up until 1996, you would be retiring with riches beyond your wildest dreams. NOT!
Cheers, Motu
- #5,315
- Sep 22, 2008 1:59am Sep 22, 2008 1:59am
hey there big guy
Some of my traders made big lumps of money from it.
Unfortunately (or fortunately, because it was such an amazing event) I was in Beijing for the Olympic Games. (the advantage of being old, successful and retired from "normal business". PS Did I tell you that Forex Trading is the best business on the planet????)
As you may recall, the drop coincided exactly with the opening ceremony of the Games. (8pm on 8/8/08 China time is exactly 8am on 8/8/08 NY time).
Mrs Jacko asked me not to trade during our two weeks at the Games so as not to spoil her enjoyment, but some of the group did extremely well.
We have just flown one of the traders over here who has only been a member of the group for about 8 months but has done exceptionally well to show us his method and approach to trend trading.
He is a real Michael Phelps of trading (admittedly over a short period...but the first group has only been going for less than 12 months and the second group even less time....but we have had a number of traders turn full time traders and some have been given prop trading positions with some trading houses that mark and I deal with). He has great trading instincts and will be a great addition to our little team. I have already started placing his trades on the blog as well.
My two small groups are progressing very well.
.
- #5,316
- Sep 22, 2008 2:32am Sep 22, 2008 2:32am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
Hi lilmoe,
Some of my traders made big lumps of money from it.
Unfortunately (or fortunately, because it was such an amazing event) I was in Beijing for the Olympic Games. (the advantage of being old, successful and retired from "normal business". PS Did I tell you that Forex Trading is the best business on the planet????)
As you may recall, the drop coincided exactly with the opening ceremony of the Games. (8pm on 8/8/08 China time is exactly 8am on 8/8/08 NY time).
Mrs Jacko asked me not to trade during our two weeks at the Games so as not to spoil her enjoyment, but some of the group did extremely well.
We have just flown one of the traders over here who has only been a member of the group for about 8 months but has done exceptionally well to show us his method and approach to trend trading.
He is a real Michael Phelps of trading (admittedly over a short period...but the first group has only been going for less than 12 months and the second group even less time....but we have had a number of traders turn full time traders and some have been given prop trading positions with some trading houses that mark and I deal with). He has great trading instincts and will be a great addition to our little team. I have already started placing his trades on the blog as well.
My two small groups are progressing very well.
.
the patterns on july 15 were all matching well; oil, cable, euro, geppy, and others. tops were screaming throughout the charts. i didn't want to overleverage and i had to make a pick, so of course i picked the geppy and multiplied my account by 4
i have to work on my timing a bit more, i knew euro was going to fall that hard and that fast, but i guess we had to double top first
see ya around!
- #5,320
- Sep 23, 2008 3:57am Sep 23, 2008 3:57am
It is good to see the efforts that Scott, Merlin and the rest of the team here put in to keep this the most credible forex forum on the internet.
Hey Jacko,
nice to read that you still like it here
I consider this confidence very important.
cu, Lowen