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AUD/USD

  • #801
  • Sep 17, 2008 4:29am Sep 17, 2008 4:29am
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...D_USD+Spot.png
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  • #802
  • Sep 17, 2008 8:39am Sep 17, 2008 8:39am
back up toppy again...??
  • #803
  • Sep 17, 2008 9:39am Sep 17, 2008 9:39am
No one in AUD? With gold spiking I have to wonder....
  • #804
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:27am Sep 18, 2008 6:27am
seems like room to run stilll.
  • #805
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:30am Sep 18, 2008 6:30am
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...D_USD+Spot.png
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  • #806
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:51pm Sep 18, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
No one in AUD? With gold spiking I have to wonder....
I also got lucky with the euro/yen, when long @ 150.25.

I believe the bottom is in for now. I am not sure how much of a dip there will be if there is a
rate cut for aussie/$.
  • #807
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:14pm Sep 18, 2008 7:14pm
Looking strong. I liked it more than EURUSD, but sold out too soon.

Will look for pull back..if any =/
  • #808
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:30pm Sep 18, 2008 8:30pm
Now that the weak longs are all gone, I see AUD/USD heading back to
85 cents
  • #809
  • Sep 19, 2008 9:39pm Sep 19, 2008 9:39pm
I am in a long position from a few days back. I think we have seen a strong move up and this will continue into next week, looks like a double doji on the weekly so it is going to be a strong move upwards

There is no news for the aussie dollar next week, there is bernanke's senate speech which will not be good for the us dollar.

also oil looks like it has a short-medium term bottom.
  • #810
  • Sep 21, 2008 5:28pm Sep 21, 2008 5:28pm
To me this is a screaming buy for the AUD.
We have seen some serious repatriation of US dollars across the board for several weeks which has forced out long AUD positions.
The market is now focusing on the long term fundamentals.
I cant see the US recovering from this for a long time to come.
So far we see officials running around plugging leaks, trying to get market confidence.Many see it as a political stop gap for the US elections.

For a long term hold stick some AUD in the bottom drawer and open it up at parity.
The party is back on !!!
  • #811
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:53pm Sep 21, 2008 6:53pm
I would'nt be so sure. The Australian economy continues to weaken and more rate cuts in Australia are on the cards.

Commodities got a boost last week but I suspect this might be hedge funds playing in different markets like FX and commodities as they can;t short the stock markets. There are reports China is slowing more now as demand is cooling around the world. I did read a report earlier today that Steel demand in China as dropped quite a bit.

If commodities rise again then the inflation genie jumps out of the bottle for the US and the global economy and would make it harder for a recovery.

If the current injection and fixes applied by the Fed/Treasury have a positive effect that people expect it will take several months to a year before there is a recovery that sees demand rise again.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets and it would be necessary to see how it plays out into October to get a better picture of a longer term trend.
  • #812
  • Sep 21, 2008 7:21pm Sep 21, 2008 7:21pm
Its game over for the US.. There is no magic bullet.
The US has to raise nearly 1 Trillion extra dollars if this package gets approved.
US assets will diminish with the printing of more money.
Forget about small int rates decreases here, this is about investing in good economies with growth potential.
Australia is a standout.
  • #813
  • Sep 22, 2008 12:54am Sep 22, 2008 12:54am
Quoting lasty
Its game over for the US.. There is no magic bullet.
The US has to raise nearly 1 Trillion extra dollars if this package gets approved.
US assets will diminish with the printing of more money.
Forget about small int rates decreases here, this is about investing in good economies with growth potential.
Australia is a standout.
Well said.

AU has to surge above 0.8400 to convince me that the recovery is real and it will be 100% real if it makes it above 0.8500
  • #814
  • Sep 22, 2008 11:05am Sep 22, 2008 11:05am
AUD/USD Just went above 0.8500 .... so lets see what happens the rest of the day.
  • #815
  • Sep 23, 2008 2:53am Sep 23, 2008 2:53am
Quoting lasty
Its game over for the US.. There is no magic bullet.
The US has to raise nearly 1 Trillion extra dollars if this package gets approved.
US assets will diminish with the printing of more money.
Forget about small int rates decreases here, this is about investing in good economies with growth potential.
Australia is a standout.
aaaaaahhhh - the commodity boom was ignited by the US, chinas boom was ignited by the us and Australia relies on both and you also need to look carefully at Australian household debt levels.

If it is game over for the US it is game over for everyone.

Looking on history, fundamentals and underlying structure of the us it will pull out fine and au will slow for a while and then start to grow in the Us growth wake

Speculators are playing on fear mongering and making the common person poorer in the process
  • #816
  • Sep 23, 2008 3:49pm Sep 23, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting mchael
aaaaaahhhh - the commodity boom was ignited by the US, chinas boom was ignited by the us and Australia relies on both and you also need to look carefully at Australian household debt levels.

If it is game over for the US it is game over for everyone.

Looking on history, fundamentals and underlying structure of the us it will pull out fine and au will slow for a while and then start to grow in the Us growth wake

Speculators are playing on fear mongering and making the common person poorer in the process
China's biggest trading partner is the EU.Australia's biggest trading partner is China, followed by Japan.
China and India sparked a commodity boom.



IN just the next 10 years China will consume about as much steel as the US did in the entire 20th century, when it was the world's industrial powerhouse.

So trading blocks are changing.
The US has had its day and like all empires before them, Roman,British etc have handed over the mantle.
The problem is the US is in denial but those on the outside can see it clearly.
  • #817
  • Sep 23, 2008 8:37pm Sep 23, 2008 8:37pm
Quoting daanman3
I am in a long position from a few days back. I think we have seen a strong move up and this will continue into next week, looks like a double doji on the weekly so it is going to be a strong move upwards

There is no news for the aussie dollar next week, there is bernanke's senate speech which will not be good for the us dollar.

also oil looks like it has a short-medium term bottom.
I have gotten out of the trade yesterday. The price missed my tp by 12 pips(.8530).

that would have made it 500 pips flat for me. But I got out when I saw price come down and made 400+pips, no point in being greedy.

I will possibly get in for a long position when price breaks the highs made yesterday.
  • #818
  • Sep 24, 2008 4:31am Sep 24, 2008 4:31am
Quoting lasty
China's biggest trading partner is the EU.Australia's biggest trading partner is China, followed by Japan.
China and India sparked a commodity boom.



IN just the next 10 years China will consume about as much steel as the US did in the entire 20th century, when it was the world's industrial powerhouse.

So trading blocks are changing.
The US has had its day and like all empires before them, Roman,British etc have handed over the mantle.
The problem is the US is in denial but those on the outside can see it clearly.

EU and Japanese demand has dropped due to the effects of the US. Given Eu labor and wage policy they have higher wages and higher unemployment whereas Us businesses have more flexibility

Don't underestimate the US

Yes in the next ten years china will boom but in the later part once the current cleanout finished and the rest of the world comes out of effects from the US

It is also likely the US govt will get their money back on the bailout or maybe even profit like they did in the S&L bailout in the late eighties
  • #819
  • Sep 24, 2008 3:31pm Sep 24, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting mchael
EU and Japanese demand has dropped due to the effects of the US. Given Eu labor and wage policy they have higher wages and higher unemployment whereas Us businesses have more flexibility

Don't underestimate the US

Yes in the next ten years china will boom but in the later part once the current cleanout finished and the rest of the world comes out of effects from the US

It is also likely the US govt will get their money back on the bailout or maybe even profit like they did in the S&L bailout in the late eighties
Its good to see your patriotism is still strong in these tough times.
I do hope the US does recover but its going to be a long haul.
Since Australia and the US have a free trade agreement and an employment window of opportunity,apply for an Aussie working Visa before the rush
  • #820
  • Sep 24, 2008 6:58pm Sep 24, 2008 6:58pm
I am Australian. For Australia to do well and for the world to do well we need the US to do well. And they will.

the $700B bailout is not 700B down the drain. They are buying assets on the cheap to a scale that only the US Govt could do. Over the course of the coming years they will then sell it and get their money back and likely make money.

Buffet was quoted as saying that if he had the money and ability as the US govt he'd be buying this as he can see it is a potential money maker and their is value in the assets.

A lot of the fear portrayed in the media from Paulson and the Fed is done so congress will not get stuck in politics on this packag and the US tax payer will agree. They know they need to get the financial markets liquid again and get the intra rates down and help financial institutions to deleverage. They leveraged up in the boom are having a hard time unwinding the leverages now as everyone is selling. At the moment everyone is strying to sell these instruments and there are no buyers and the only one with deep enough pockets or able to pull the money together to buy is the US govt. This is why I believe there is a lot of value in the US dollar. It is still the biggest player in the world that can pull more money together than any other nation when needed.

The weakness in the US dollar I believe is short term and when strength comes into it it will drop pressure on commodities which will then allow China to get more bang for their buck which will then put everything in place for another cyclic boom of which then Australia and other Nations will benefit.
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