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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,781
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:10am Sep 21, 2008 1:10am
Quoting ghous
looking at the weekly, i would like to see Uj atleast test the 110 level if does not break it...the bullish move is not yet over, even when we saw some nice moves down to as low as 104 on the daily, again on the weekly all we see is long pointy noses touching these levels, the bulls are far from giving up...
Careful, remember the monthly. Last month gave a pin in line with the monthly down trend. I think we've still got a ways down to go. I'd say that next target is 101.30 or so.
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  • #13,782
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:29am Sep 21, 2008 1:29am
Quoting Betard
Careful, remember the monthly. Last month gave a pin in line with the monthly down trend. I think we've still got a ways down to go. I'd say that next target is 101.30 or so.

first of all looking at the monthly i don't see a real trend atall, it's mere consolidation although with a very large range that's initiating these pulses. Secondly the monthly pin bar was'nt a strong one. Thirdly 20 days into the month (that's 2/3 of the bar journey on the monthly) and price does'nt want to go down, and this is exactly what i am commenting on, no signs thus far for a real drop, the weekly and the daily are still very much up, with a sideways market on the monthly i would not feel too bad abt a long...

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #13,783
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:43am Sep 21, 2008 1:43am
Quoting ghous
first of all looking at the monthly i don't see a real trend atall, it's mere consolidation although with a very large range that's initiating these pulses. Secondly the monthly pin bar was'nt a strong one. Thirdly 20 days into the month (that's 2/3 of the bar journey on the monthly) and price does'nt want to go down, and this is exactly what i am commenting on, no signs thus far for a real drop, the weekly and the daily are still very much up, with a sideways market on the monthly i would not feel too bad abt a long...

Regards,
Ghous.
the USDJPY certainly is a puzzle ... the monthly august "pin bar" was very weak indeed (i don't trade monthlies, but nothing screaming out at me that i should have taken it short) ... the september price action might be forming a bullish pin (and i do like the price action from march/april that started this whole bullish move). then we have weekly bullish bar bouncing off support and through at least one level of ppz. daily is playing off further bullish price action. the bearish puzzle begins at strong resistance found at 10857/60. this might be a currency that is better left alone for the time being ... (but i do confess i have a long order from 10851) there will always be other opportunities right?
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #13,784
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:04am Sep 21, 2008 2:04am
Quoting fxgrinder
the USDJPY certainly is a puzzle ... the monthly august "pin bar" was very weak indeed (i don't trade monthlies, but nothing screaming out at me that i should have taken it short) ... the september price action might be forming a bullish pin (and i do like the price action from march/april that started this whole bullish move). then we have weekly bullish bar bouncing off support and through at least one level of ppz. daily is playing off further bullish price action. the bearish puzzle begins at strong resistance found at 10857/60. this might be a currency that is better left alone for the time being ... (but i do confess i have a long order from 10851) there will always be other opportunities right?
10851 seems a nice option for a pending order! i am personally thinking of allowing it to first break 110, this should further demonstrate the mood of the bulls...

that said here is another nice setup...
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I believe . . .
  • #13,785
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:11am Sep 21, 2008 2:11am
Quoting ghous
first of all looking at the monthly i don't see a real trend atall, it's mere consolidation although with a very large range that's initiating these pulses. Secondly the monthly pin bar was'nt a strong one. Thirdly 20 days into the month (that's 2/3 of the bar journey on the monthly) and price does'nt want to go down, and this is exactly what i am commenting on, no signs thus far for a real drop, the weekly and the daily are still very much up, with a sideways market on the monthly i would not feel too bad abt a long...

Regards,
Ghous.
Mr Ghous, I'm agree with your analyze of UJ PA

see detail of the weekly chart ..............

regards,
my30marahaba
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  • #13,786
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:24am Sep 21, 2008 2:24am
Quoting ghous
10851 seems a nice option for a pending order! i am personally thinking of allowing it to first break 110, this should further demonstrate the mood of the bulls...

that said here is another nice setup...
HA!!! missed this one ...
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #13,787
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:26am Sep 21, 2008 2:26am
Quoting my30marahaba
Mr Ghous, I'm agree with your analyze of UJ PA

see detail of the weekly chart ..............

regards,
my30marahaba
UJ chart ......
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  • #13,788
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:28am Sep 21, 2008 2:28am
Quoting ghous
first of all looking at the monthly i don't see a real trend atall, it's mere consolidation although with a very large range that's initiating these pulses. Secondly the monthly pin bar was'nt a strong one. Thirdly 20 days into the month (that's 2/3 of the bar journey on the monthly) and price does'nt want to go down, and this is exactly what i am commenting on, no signs thus far for a real drop, the weekly and the daily are still very much up, with a sideways market on the monthly i would not feel too bad abt a long...

Regards,
Ghous.
I define downtrend by lower highs, lower lows, which is what we have on the monthly right now. On weekly chart we now have a lower low so the weekly up-trend may be weakening. I think there's still a ways down to go but no worries you're entitled to your own opinion.
  • #13,789
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:36am Sep 21, 2008 2:36am
Quoting Betard
I define downtrend by lower highs, lower lows, which is what we have on the monthly right now. On weekly chart we now have a lower low so the weekly up-trend may be weakening. I think there's still a ways down to go but no worries you're entitled to your own opinion.
make sure you also know that " a strong downtrend is one where the lower highs and the lower lows keep coming for quite some time" the trend is indeed down by the basic definition but not a strong one, or let's say it is'nt a trend i would really think abt not going against.

to my30marhaba:

your analysis looks good! and by the feel of it i can see you're also looking on the long side....Best of luck!

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #13,790
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:39am Sep 21, 2008 2:39am
things are looking nice for next week, quite a few healthy looking setups..

Here is Au:
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I believe . . .
  • #13,791
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:39am Sep 21, 2008 2:39am
Quoting Betard
I define downtrend by lower highs, lower lows, which is what we have on the monthly right now. On weekly chart we now have a lower low so the weekly up-trend may be weakening. I think there's still a ways down to go but no worries you're entitled to your own opinion.

Betard I think you right when I draw SHS on the UJ weekly chart the down trend at the right shoulder is not complete yet still need another down bar

regards,
my30marahaba....
  • #13,792
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:42am Sep 21, 2008 2:42am
here is the Usd/cad, looking to give a nice entry in the coming weeks/months...
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I believe . . .
  • #13,793
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:47am Sep 21, 2008 2:47am
Quoting ghous
make sure you also know that " a strong downtrend is one where the lower highs and the lower lows keep coming for quite some time" the trend is indeed down by the basic definition but not a strong one, or let's say it is'nt a trend i would really think abt not going against.

to my30marhaba:

your analysis looks good! and by the feel of it i can see you're also looking on the long side....Best of luck!

Regards,
Ghous.
Thank's Mr. Ghous..... I think UJ I will wait for long from the lower price this week....

thanks and regards,
my30marahaba...
  • #13,794
  • Sep 21, 2008 5:55am Sep 21, 2008 5:55am
Quoting judith
I took the same one, I would like to ask you some questions about management, usually i do it this way.

  1. enter trade with 3 parts/lots, SL at opposite end of PB
  2. take 1 lot out at *38% of PB, leave SL the same
  3. take 2nd lot out at *1:1, move SL to BE
  4. trail 3rd SL using PA

*if there are major S/R areas above/below my targets I move them acordingly

that means that right now I'm negative waiting for 2 lots to hit my SL, turning this winner a loser, I mean...the trade is not over yet, but in case it goes up, what would you have recomended I did, maybe I just have to take it in the chin and move on.

Hi Judith, felt to chip in here as really winners becoming losers is something to prevent at all costs.
How you manage your trades depends on what you can do time wise and how discretionary you are willing to be, what you have tested and proved to yourself.
I would just like to say that to me this particular pin was not particularly one to try and hold (good enough to trade however,FTB 25 ema) and therefore I paid close attention to the first support area likely to become an obstacle. As it happened it was the weekly pivot which produced a 1hr and then 4hr pin against the trade. This was the defining moment for this trade to close it or take partial profit but at least move to B/E.
I do not know about your 3 positions and your exit rules regards how you came to those, they look ok but without extensive testing back and forward I would keep it simpler and slightly more discretionary.
Hope this helps
S.
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GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #13,795
  • Sep 21, 2008 6:42am Sep 21, 2008 6:42am
Quoting Swami S
....
Cheers buddy, long time no talk
  • #13,796
  • Edited 8:13am Sep 21, 2008 7:57am | Edited 8:13am
Hi Swami!
Nice to see You here!
Would You be so kind to provide us with that (or those) pivot indi we can see on Your charts?
THX, NL

Ooops, find it! Just cannot upload.
  • #13,797
  • Sep 21, 2008 8:26am Sep 21, 2008 8:26am
Quoting james16
Sometime next month I am going to start doing once a month webinars for NON-MEMBERS that frequent this thread as a way of saying thanks. These will be very basic general sessions. This has been planned for a long time and i think im about ready.

These sessions will be for one reason only. To help you and THERE PURPOSE WILL NOT BE TO PITCH THE GROUP OR GET YOU TO JOIN. You will recieve NO suggestions to join before, during or after the session/s.......... EVER.

Over three years now and im proud to say we have no affiliates, banners, not one dime spent on advertising, no mass spam emails and not one past member has ever recieved a request to come back.

We do things differently and these sessions will be no different.


Stay tuned on when and how to attend,

Jim
Hi Jim

When will it be ready?

Thanks.
Simon
  • #13,798
  • Sep 21, 2008 8:58am Sep 21, 2008 8:58am
Quoting suwuming
Hi Jim

When will it be ready?

Thanks.
Simon
we're all waiting for it! as Jim said stay tuned...

EDIT:

to Jim,

since it may not be possible for everbody to attend the webinar due to timezone problems or other reasons, can there be a recorded copy of the webinar available to all members via this thread??

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #13,799
  • Edited 9:10pm Sep 21, 2008 3:51pm | Edited 9:10pm
Quoting judith
I took the same one, I would like to ask you some questions about management, usually i do it this way.

  1. enter trade with 3 parts/lots, SL at opposite end of PB
  2. take 1 lot out at *38% of PB, leave SL the same
  3. take 2nd lot out at *1:1, move SL to BE
  4. trail 3rd SL using PA

*if there are major S/R areas above/below my targets I move them acordingly

that means that right now I'm negative waiting for 2 lots to hit my SL, turning this winner a loser, I mean...the trade is not over yet, but in case it goes up, what would you have recomended I did, maybe I just have to take it in the chin and move on.

Here's how I managed this Euro trade from last week. Sorry I couldn't post charts at the time. I really don't like posting trades without charts to show the reasons behind it. But this was a very high probability trade.

The Daily Pin Bar of 9-18-08 with the trend entered after the break 1.4270.
Price broke on the next bar , hard and fast which is a great sign that Price will continue.(This is a high qualifier for all PA set-ups).

On my mind is the Support level at 1.4070ish, Weekly Pin Bar (in the opposite direction) and the Daily Trendline.

I then move down to the 4 hour charts and see if any PA formations ( and S/R levels) will give me a hint if this short off the PB will continue. Price runs into the Daily trendline and possible reverse spinning top at that trendline.

I take half off for 83 pips (1.4187) and move my stoploss to break even. Price moves up and stops me out on the other half at break even.

I try to never let a winner turn in to a loser. If Price moved down 60 pips and then started heading back to my entry I would probably have closed the trade at 0 to -10 pips. Even if it goes back in my direction right after I close the trade and it has done this many times. lol. But to has also kept me out a losses that would have run a lot larger.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,800
  • Sep 21, 2008 8:32pm Sep 21, 2008 8:32pm
Worth looking at?....
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