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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #921
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:15pm Feb 20, 2007 3:15pm
Phil,

That being said, as per your system, what would I be looking for to happen before I get in.

Simplicity is the key to life!
Jim
  • #922
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:22pm Feb 20, 2007 3:22pm
Hi Phillip & All!

Wow, what a difference a long weekend can make! Haven't been able to get a feel for what is the directional bias for the EUR or the GBP since the President's weekend and decided not to trade yesterday. Think that the release of the BOE minutes at 9:30 GMT on Wednesday will help get the market moving again in a clearer direction (as will the BOJ). Thought it best to stay out of a choppy market w/weak 4 hr. strategy signals. As Phillip has shown us w/his examples, wait for the good signals and pass on the lower probalbility setups and we will all prosper.
  • #923
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:24pm Feb 20, 2007 3:24pm
Hi TamKras!

Congrats on the full piggy bank! Bet your piggy looks like a blue ribbon winner from the state (province in canada) fair! Keep up the amazing pip collection!!!!!!!!!
  • #924
  • Feb 20, 2007 3:28pm Feb 20, 2007 3:28pm
Hi Guys,

The woodchuck and the possum pdf is great for helping us all with mental discipline. I am a student of the author and have found that Phil is very similiar in his methodology of discipline, plan, plan, test, plan and follow the plan. Think of the Tsunami pdf and how it applies to the 4 hr. strategy and your trading style and you will not get stuck in the cage!
  • #925
  • Edited 4:07pm Feb 20, 2007 3:53pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi TamKras!

Congrats on the full piggy bank! Bet your piggy looks like a blue ribbon winner from the state (province in canada) fair! Keep up the amazing pip collection!!!!!!!!!
My piggy is so humble... Remember Charlotte's Web? But it can work miracles sometimes. It is Canadian-borne piggy and I was wondering if I can take my pride to the U.S. state fair sometimes, he-he.

Edit: sorry, folks, for unrelated subject but I thought a little bit of light-hearted humour would shake some stress off. Have you ever felt the stress at a dealing desk or in an exchange pit? We need to fight the stress, too. This is part of the plan. Yours, Tamkras and my little piggy..
  • #926
  • Feb 20, 2007 5:15pm Feb 20, 2007 5:15pm
Nice Job, Tamkras.

Jim
  • #927
  • Edited 5:42pm Feb 20, 2007 5:32pm | Edited 5:42pm
Quoting tamkras
My piggy is so humble... Remember Charlotte's Web? But it can work miracles sometimes. It is Canadian-borne piggy and I was wondering if I can take my pride to the U.S. state fair sometimes, he-he.

Edit: sorry, folks, for unrelated subject but I thought a little bit of light-hearted humour would shake some stress off. Have you ever felt the stress at a dealing desk or in an exchange pit? We need to fight the stress, too. This is part of the plan. Yours, Tamkras and my little piggy..
Tamkras here's one Yankee who welcomes your pig to any US fair, as long as I'm invited! I enjoy watching you and others on this thread trade and love to trade myself but I need to work on the mind part of trading more and think I might get a pig too and get pips to fill it up big and fat!...Patiently!...instead of greedily getting pips just for me, get em for my pig and others!
  • #928
  • Feb 20, 2007 5:46pm Feb 20, 2007 5:46pm
Quoting Poocher
Tamkras here's one Yankee who welcomes your pig to any US fair, as long as I'm invited! I enjoy watching you and others on this thread trade and love to trade myself but I need to work on the mind part of trading more and think I might get a pig too and get pips to fill it up big and fat!
We are really flattered, Poocher! We are taking the offer! Just come think of it. I have no bulls neither bears in my farm but a very nice, smart and friendly animal who helps me to survive. I am serious about piggy's future. My long-term goal, with the time, is to breed a new market force... Fair, market, who cares, same old stuff. They will be bull-resistant and scare-bear. One night I would be watching some money channel and there will be Goldman Sachs' economists brooding about euro bullish force. Yeah-yeah, they would say, we crunched some numbers and came up with an idea that dollar is weak. Unfortunately, we could not predict the rise of a new, piggyish, force...This will be my day!
  • #929
  • Feb 20, 2007 7:25pm Feb 20, 2007 7:25pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
I just came back from work and found that the Eur has turend around. I am very surpriced to that. Got stopped out on trailing stop at 1.3259 with entry at 1.3138 for 21pips gain. I was hoping for the trend to continue. It just show the value of partial profit taking and breakeven settings.

We are back at the 21EMA. But watch the angle getting flatter on the 21EMA also finding some sort of resistance at current price levels with the gap between 8 and 21 getting closer. I will be very cautious. MACD has shown short signal the past two bars. Only time will tell.

I am going to believe the MACD giving a short as well as the evening star that formed with the turnaround around the trendline resistance.

I went short at 1.3138 with first target and breakeven setting around 1.3100. Stoploss 28pips

The current situation is not very clear. Looks like lions country. The Gbp does not help either to read some sort of direction. I might have been to quick with the short but I went with the MACD. Will wait and see.

Update
Must add my money were my mouth are.
Just curious. Besides MACD gave bearish for the last 2 candles (in fact 3 now), but the mood was still bullish and the candle still has not close below 21EMA (I think if it does, this might give an 'indication' to go short?). May I know what make you decide to go short, did I missing anything?
  • #930
  • Feb 20, 2007 9:09pm Feb 20, 2007 9:09pm
Ok, 10M (EST) candle just opened and I don't see a clear signal for the Euro or the Cable.

Does any one sees something?
  • #931
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:01pm Feb 20, 2007 10:01pm
Phillip,
Quick question if I may....perhaps it's already been answered in the thread but I don't remember.

"When price action is already above ALL of the EMA's and heading up according to the indicators, what do you use to project price?
70% expectancy rate with proper SL placement.
  • #932
  • Feb 20, 2007 10:28pm Feb 20, 2007 10:28pm
Quoting fnmdx
Just curious. Besides MACD gave bearish for the last 2 candles (in fact 3 now), but the mood was still bullish and the candle still has not close below 21EMA (I think if it does, this might give an 'indication' to go short?). May I know what make you decide to go short, did I missing anything?
The evening star plus the MACD signals and the 8-21EMA flatten I thought it was worth taken it on. I said I think I went in to early.

I just close the deal for breakeven at 1.3138. The MACD looks like a break through zero and a possible turnback might be forming. The price has found support on the 21EMA. All this made me close the position.

Will wait for further direction.
  • #933
  • Feb 21, 2007 1:37am Feb 21, 2007 1:37am
EUR.USD the macd went negative, and now has shot back up into positive. You would consider this a BUY MACD signal, correct Philip???
  • #934
  • Edited 9:01am Feb 21, 2007 3:20am | Edited 9:01am
Tamkras, patience paid off again. After holding onto the aud/usd since sunday evening, I took early profit with 2 lots at 27 pips each, and letting 1 lot continue to see where it will go. There is a very steep rising converging triangle to work with.

Quoting tamkras
Thanks, Dire. There is no quick penny. Your recent post on woodchucks was excellent and I enjoyed reading it. When you position yourself in the market, observe your win and lose chances. I'd rather have more win chances to back up my entry. Please, see my post how I approached this transaction:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=14630&page=44

and then post 718.

Once I am in, I stick to the plan.
Turk, with most pairs having a very tightly packed converging triangle before major news coming out, if you don't already have a position, then in my opinion I'd stay out of a trade till after and then take everyones money on the pullback . I just don't fully trust the MACD signals in this situation.

The only real trade that I have in new and no profit taking yet, is the usd/cad, as it just formed/forming a very nice round top with pretty solid trend lines to contain it. But again news is coming out, so I'm having a bit of buyers remorse.

Edit: I am up 14 pips before news coming out, so I'm happy with the usd/cad trade

Edit: I just took 45 pips on 2 lots on usd/cad and letting 1 lot ride if breaks 365 line... IT JUST BROKE IT AND HAVE 88 PIPS ON THE WAY DOWN TO A VERY MUCH LOWER TL.
Quoting turk87
EUR.USD the macd went negative, and now has shot back up into positive. You would consider this a BUY MACD signal, correct Philip???
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #935
  • Feb 21, 2007 4:24am Feb 21, 2007 4:24am
Quoting Dropplan
Phillip,
Quick question if I may....perhaps it's already been answered in the thread but I don't remember.

"When price action is already above ALL of the EMA's and heading up according to the indicators, what do you use to project price?

Hi Dropplan,

To project your target, use trendlines and/or fib extensions. Use the MA's to trail your stop or you can use the low from a few candles back. Hope this helped. Other ideas are peppered throughout the thread.
  • #936
  • Feb 21, 2007 4:26am Feb 21, 2007 4:26am
Quoting tamkras
We are really flattered, Poocher! We are taking the offer! Just come think of it. I have no bulls neither bears in my farm but a very nice, smart and friendly animal who helps me to survive. I am serious about piggy's future. My long-term goal, with the time, is to breed a new market force... Fair, market, who cares, same old stuff. They will be bull-resistant and scare-bear. One night I would be watching some money channel and there will be Goldman Sachs' economists brooding about euro bullish force. Yeah-yeah, they would say, we crunched some numbers and came up with an idea that dollar is weak. Unfortunately, we could not predict the rise of a new, piggyish, force...This will be my day!

LOL You crazy Canadians!!!! (I'm a landed immigrant, so no offense meant w/the crazy part).
  • #937
  • Feb 21, 2007 7:33am Feb 21, 2007 7:33am
Hi Dropplan,

That's exactly right. I use trend lines, and then look horizontally for where other uptrends and downtrends have faced resistance, and draw horizontal lines to match. It's almost like I'm making my own fib levels/pivot levels, but it seems to work out very well. That's just part of my trading plan, and I'm sure others have different methods. I would post a chart, but the size would not show it well.

I'm going to have to setup a photo site to post all my charts......

Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Dropplan,

To project your target, use trendlines and/or fib extensions. Use the MA's to trail your stop or you can use the low from a few candles back. Hope this helped. Other ideas are peppered throughout the thread.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #938
  • Feb 21, 2007 9:25am Feb 21, 2007 9:25am
Well done DireXiv, looking forward to your charts!

Quoting DireXiv
Hi Dropplan,

That's exactly right. I use trend lines, and then look horizontally for where other uptrends and downtrends have faced resistance, and draw horizontal lines to match. It's almost like I'm making my own fib levels/pivot levels, but it seems to work out very well. That's just part of my trading plan, and I'm sure others have different methods. I would post a chart, but the size would not show it well.

I'm going to have to setup a photo site to post all my charts......
  • #939
  • Feb 21, 2007 9:28am Feb 21, 2007 9:28am
Edit: I am up 14 pips before news coming out, so I'm happy with the usd/cad trade

Edit: I just took 45 pips on 2 lots on usd/cad and letting 1 lot ride if breaks 365 line... IT JUST BROKE IT AND HAVE 88 PIPS ON THE WAY DOWN TO A VERY MUCH LOWER TL.
[/quote]

Isn't it a rollercoaster? I can even feel your joy of victory! Take as many pips as you want now.
  • #940
  • Feb 21, 2007 9:59am Feb 21, 2007 9:59am
Quoting Dropplan
Phillip,
Quick question if I may....perhaps it's already been answered in the thread but I don't remember.

"When price action is already above ALL of the EMA's and heading up according to the indicators, what do you use to project price?

I use previous highs, price levels and then Fibonacci and sometimes also pivots. My other one is that the EurUsd moves in beats of 60pips or half beats. So it is 30,60,90,120. If there is no other indication I will use the beats.
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