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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #201
  • Sep 20, 2008 9:19pm Sep 20, 2008 9:19pm
It is

But somebody has to do it, right? Thanks for that great post... it reaffirms my own thinking.

Quoting FX-Petra
Personally, I don't see how you take the noobie abuse---I know it is the way of the web, but it must be tiring.
  • #202
  • Sep 20, 2008 9:22pm Sep 20, 2008 9:22pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Personally, I don't see how you take the noobie abuse---I know it is the way of the web, but it must be tiring.
Kiss, kiss.

Why start a topic then?

To stimulate a conversation, but should it all be one point of view.
  • #203
  • Sep 20, 2008 9:46pm Sep 20, 2008 9:46pm
Tdion has raised a great point in this thread.

Sure you can treat you trading as a business that's the way to do it IMO.

I do it that way. But does that structure help you make make more money yes it does as you have a set of rules to trade this increases your odds to win or why would you do it? Think about it you are looking to increase your odds!

what does that mean? you can't ever guarantee a win in the market no matter what you do or how good your rules/system are there is no guarantee when u hit buy or sell your trade will be a winner.

so yes Tdion we are all working to luck. we aim to be profitable overall not 100% right every time.

I think once a trader can accept this he or she has reached a level of mental skill that is on coarse to understanding what trading is about. Control of ones emotions is to have total acceptance that my next trade has just as much chance as being a loser as a winner.

I had major issues with that till i read trading in the zone by Mark Douglas 5 times. I have a edge that suggests if i follow it i will win more times then lose and that is the case most times but I can never say my next trade is a 100% winner or loser. that market determines that for me one i place my order!

Great thread Tdion pushing people in the right direction.

Cheers,
Apocalypto
  • #204
  • Edited Sep 21, 2008 12:38am Sep 20, 2008 11:57pm | Edited Sep 21, 2008 12:38am
Clearing houses make this game of luck to some degree. Why, because MT clearing houses,are basically a casino house, accept on a larger scale they take the other side of the trade. When the thousands of customers over at the white label broker wins they lose, when customers loses they win, the position gets canceled. IMHO this is why i think 95% of the new customers lose their money in the first 12 months, because they don't understand the rules. They think their broker is out to get them.

So were dose that leave the rest of us? Only clearing houses/white labels/brokers can see what their customers positions are. We have now way of knowing that information. We are pretty much at the mercy of what ever decision they decide to take a trade against. In that case its 50/50. When you are aware of this it becomes more of a gambel than a game of luck IMO.

So the trick is to dance with your partner/market and not let her big ass feet/rules get in the way.
It's me...
  • #205
  • Sep 21, 2008 12:07am Sep 21, 2008 12:07am
I don't use daily ATR.... I use 96 on the hourly....

It has climbed over 0.0040 since Monday, which is the new red zone for my trading. Anytime over 40, I will stay out.

Quoting SunTrader
ATR(14) bottomed Aug 5th and has been climbing rapidly ever since other than end Aug/Early Sept to the tune of 210%.
  • #206
  • Sep 21, 2008 12:25am Sep 21, 2008 12:25am
So, to reaffirm my own mindset about my own trading, I would be counting my lucky stars if I made 4000% with real money (like I did with play money over the last 9 months.) I would not look at myself as some "hotshot trader" because I can't explain the underpinnings of the price movements (as Merlin pointed out.)

My strategies are all based on chart formations on the hourly EURUSD, about half James16 variations and half my own stuff.

It's been a fun thread.
  • #207
  • Sep 21, 2008 12:58am Sep 21, 2008 12:58am
Quoting tdion
I don't use daily ATR.... I use 96 on the hourly....

It has climbed over 0.0040 since Monday, which is the new red zone for my trading. Anytime over 40, I will stay out.
Suit yourself. Volatility is what I live for and any other trader I know.
  • #208
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:03am Sep 21, 2008 1:03am
Quoting AgentFx
When you are aware of this it becomes more of a gambel than a game of luck IMO.
Ahhh What!!!!!

So gambling does not involve luck or is it luck that does not involve gambling?
  • #209
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:08am Sep 21, 2008 1:08am
Aren't most gamblers just lucky anyway LOL

Quoting SunTrader
Ahhh What!!!!!

So gambling does not involve luck or is it luck that does not involve gambling?
It's me...
  • #210
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:46am Sep 21, 2008 1:46am
You might want to keep an eye on ATC Broker's new Hotspot ECN bridge through MT4.... not prime time yet, but I have faith that they are getting there.

The benefit: STP (straight through processing...) what you click is what you get without slippage and requotes.

Quoting AgentFx
Only clearing houses/white labels/brokers can see what their customers positions are. We have now way of knowing that information. We are pretty much at the mercy of what ever decision they decide to take a trade against.
  • #211
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:52am Sep 21, 2008 1:52am
Quoting FX-Petra
Everyone on here telling you that they have a "method" to win in forex are sheep, and sheep get slaughtered......

.....There are many good strategies posted here at FF that, apllied correctly, and with a little luck, could return you a handsome sum of $ in the short run.

Aren't those two statements a bit contradictory?
  • #212
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:53am Sep 21, 2008 1:53am
Quoting SunTrader
Suit yourself. Volatility is what I live for and any other trader I know.

Me too, market conditions this past week have been ideal for my trading style and strategy, I wish every week was the same!
  • #213
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:59am Sep 21, 2008 1:59am
Quoting tenantro

It's obvious tdion does not accept contradictory opinions....... He only likes it when people say he's right.

Someone told me he's not usually like this, it's probably due to a bad trading week and let's face it we all have 'em!

I must admit though, going by his initial responses to my posts in this thread that's the impression I got too, but it doesn't stop the rest of us having a sensible discussion or keeping the debate balanced by posting our own opinions based on reason and logic (even if it does mean we run the risk of being reported for 'disrespect' or 'instigating posts'!)
  • #214
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:59am Sep 21, 2008 1:59am
Quoting tdion
You might want to keep an eye on ATC Broker's new Hotspot ECN bridge through MT4.... not prime time yet, but I have faith that they are getting there.

The benefit: STP (straight through processing...) what you click is what you get without slippage and requotes.
Isn't the commission a bit high, though?
  • #215
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:04am Sep 21, 2008 2:04am
I think it was Tdion who mentioned Lehman Brothers. Just as a point of interest, I happened to be at Lehman's in London the other week, two days before the bankruptcy. That particular day, 1000 out of the 5000 employees were canned. People were rapidly exchanging personal contact info lest the Lehman email system go down. No traders who made money were fired. At any rate, in that big beautiful building, it was nothing but misery and paranoia and fragility. As an individual trader, albeit your emotions and spreads are stacked against you, you're all still in better shape than all those Lehman people who relied on the synergy of the organization to make them money and they had never learned how to take risk. Good luck to all. You've got a chance.

Lenoxer
  • #216
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:08am Sep 21, 2008 2:08am
No.... (not in my opinion, anyway)

Last I heard, it was $8/standard lot RT (round turn), which is less than a pip in most cases....

So if the spread goes to "choice" (where bid and ask are identical.... because the best prices are taken from all liquidity providers in the hotspot pool) then the commission is often less than a pip....

Spreads are tighter during news too.... and they don't care if you trade it. (I am not into trading news.)

Quoting fxterrapin
Isn't the commission a bit high, though?
  • #217
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:10am Sep 21, 2008 2:10am
Still at it, huh?

I'd love to have a phone chat with you and straighten this out....

Quoting lostinspace
I must admit though, going by his initial responses to my posts in this thread that's the impression I got too, but it doesn't stop the rest of us having a sensible discussion or keeping the debate balanced by posting our own opinions based on reason and logic (even if it does mean we run the risk of being reported for 'disrespect' or 'instigating posts'!)
  • #218
  • Edited 3:26am Sep 21, 2008 2:18am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting Lenoxer
At any rate, in that big beautiful building, it was nothing but misery and paranoia and fragility.

Lenoxer

I have friends who work for Citi and apparently the mood there is similar, even staff at Cafe Spice say they are feeling the City's aura of depression!

I think you're right, as individual traders we are extremely fortunate that we don't have to rely on the astuteness of the corporate bosses upstairs, we are the masters of our own destiny as far as our trading goes. I wouldn't like to be in any other business right now (with the exception of liquidator, they must be coining it in!), the risks of bankruptcy must be huge.

How long this business lasts is debateable though, I read somewhere that due to the current economic conditions in the world this might be an ideal time to introduce a single currency!!

-
  • #219
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:21am Sep 21, 2008 2:21am
Quoting tdion
Still at it, huh?

I'd love to have a phone chat with you and straighten this out....
Well I'm always on Skype so you're welcome to PM me for my contact details if you like, as long as it's a productive conversation I don't mind
  • #220
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:29am Sep 21, 2008 2:29am
I think you have a different outlook on forex than I do. It is like oil and water.... it just doesn't mix. I doubt any phone chat will change that. I think more conflict is inevitable, which is a shame.... Perhaps using the ignore button on each other is the best option.

In spite of your attempts at being a knight in shining armour, picking at my ideaologies and what-not, why don't you just STOP before you respond to anything I write. Otherwise, I will bark back at you every single time.

It is inevitable.

What a shame to detract with side-shows on a good thread.

Quoting lostinspace
Well I'm always on Skype so you're welcome to PM me for my contact details if you like, as long as it's a productive conversation I don't mind
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