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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #181
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:43pm Sep 20, 2008 6:43pm
Quoting The Fxorce
If this is true the fastest track to profits would be wiring your optic nerve to your computer's VGA output. At the same time it would behoove said trader to sever or compress the spine below C7 to retain some use of the hands as a trading interface. Ear plugs or puncturing the ear drums would be necessary. Removing the tongue and plugging the nose should suffice in creating the ultimate trading machine.
ahh shit.. hum, I think I got it wrong.. a little help would be good.. am I supposed to hold my nose?!
  • #182
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:47pm Sep 20, 2008 6:47pm
This really pisses me off, tenantro. You are a newbie here.... where as I have put in thousands of hours of sweat equity. And for you to have the audacity to make these false statements:

Quoting tenantro
The fact that some guys need to make themselves feel better by blaming their insuccess on luck or lack of it does not affect with anything the people that are succesfull. If they want to cling to this, so be it, just mind your own business and focus on making the money and leave them alone. Stop feeding the trolls.
Tell me, tenantro, how do you know my trading results? I have posted live trade calls for several months, gaining several hundred pips. My forward tests are also very profitable.

You don't like my threads? Maybe you should start making your own. It's a lot easier to cast stones than to come up with original things.

Your "Euro is more volatile than GBP" thread died in a week. So you don't have any room to talk, do you?

People are posting their opinions here. So am I. That's how it works. This is not a "convince tdion" thread.... it is a public forum. And when interest dies in this thread, it will go away.

I am very tired of you and your instigating posts, and reported you to twee. Maybe he will tell you to stop harrassing me.
  • #183
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:02pm Sep 20, 2008 7:02pm
For the record, the thread you mentioned "died" because I no longer wanted to keep posting, given the reaction I got from a few people including you. Unlike you, I don't like causing a fuss and know when I need to stop so I don't end up ruining it for everyone. I had something to share and I shared it and I never meant to turn it into a dozen something page thread. I had nothing more to add to it.

I'm not sure exactly how come I'm supposed to not "bother" you on your threads yet you stopped by in my previous thread and called me a newbie again. Is this a one way thing? You're allowed to express your opinion any time you want and I'm not?

I have no way of knowing exactly how successful or unsuccessful you are, nor do I care, but if I did see your journal the other day since it had new posts and 2k or something pips a year does not impress me much.

So I'm sorry if I don't take your word for it, especially given how jaded you are all the time and how much you go out of your way to bring others down with you.

You bothered Twee once again for nothing.
  • #184
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:07pm Sep 20, 2008 7:07pm
Quoting tenantro
Have I stepped on your toes recently or something? I have no idea who you are and no recollection of ever talking to you. You must be confusing me with someone else.
Nope. I got the right guy.
  • #185
  • Edited 7:21pm Sep 20, 2008 7:10pm | Edited 7:21pm
And did I "bring others down with me" when I recommended you use tick data with your DSP ideas? Honestly, when have you ever attempted to help another person around here?

I have threads on trading systems and money management that I created from scratch. I can quote dozens of posts where I have answered specific questions from traders on a muriad of topics. WHAT CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE YOU MADE that gives you the right to challenge me with every breath that you take?

It is obvious that you are really here to pick a fight. The two paragraphs below are both by you... yet they logically conflict with one other.

Quoting tenantro
The fact that some guys need to make themselves feel better by blaming their insuccess on luck or lack of it does not affect with anything the people that are succesfull. If they want to cling to this, so be it, just mind your own business and focus on making the money and leave them alone. Stop feeding the trolls.


Quoting tenantro
I have no way of knowing exactly how successful or unsuccessful you are, nor do I care, but if I did see your journal the other day since it had new posts and 2k or something pips a year does not impress me much.
Why don't you just go? You ruin any good discussion that could be taking place.
  • #186
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:15pm Sep 20, 2008 7:15pm
Hey, this thread is becoming HOT!!!
  • #187
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:23pm Sep 20, 2008 7:23pm
This is the last post of mine on this thread.

Are you serious? Go through my post history, there are quite a few posts where I do try to help people.I don't spend as much time posting as you do because I'm too busy with other things, but this is something entirely different.

If you read what I wrote in the thread you suggested me to use tick data, I said I don't need tick data and if fact it would be completely useless for the kind of setup I have. You had no idea what exactly my system involved yet suggested me to use tick data like that would provide some universal improvement for anything. It doesn't but thank you for your suggestion any way, but don't try to make it sound like it was of more use or importance that it actually was.

I have a very complex wavelet-neural system I designed that preprocesses and forecasts the next day's high, low and close. I have no use for tick data and in fact if I used it, I would probably need a supercomputer and a few TBs of disk space to handle the amount of data it would generate. If I didn't ran out of RAM first.

Do you understand now how gratuitous your suggestion was? This is my last post on this thread, I don't want to keep bothering you, it seems I do bother you quite a lot with anything I say.
  • #188
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:28pm Sep 20, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting tenantro
This is the last post of mine on this thread.

Are you serious? Go through my post history, there are quite a few posts where I do try to help people.I don't spend as much time posting as you do because I'm too busy with other things, but this is something entirely different.

If you read what I wrote in the thread you suggested me to use tick data, I said I don't need tick data and if fact it would be completely useless for the kind of setup I have. You had no idea what exactly my system involved yet suggested me to use tick data like that would provide some universal improvement for anything. It doesn't but thank you for your suggestion any way, but don't try to make it sound like it was of more use or importance that it actually was.

I have a very complex wavelet-neural system I designed that preprocesses and forecasts the next day's high, low and close. I have no use for tick data and in fact if I used it, I would probably need a supercomputer and a few TBs of disk space to handle the amount of data it would generate. If I didn't ran out of RAM first.

Do you understand now how gratuitous your suggestion was? This is my last post on this thread, I don't want to keep bothering you, it seems I do bother you quite a lot with anything I say.
Hey, i like what i read here.

You know, 3 years ago i too was involved in a project, for creating a NN that can forecast low-high-close of the further day, and i would say it was kinda complex, and results was good. But, don't you like sometime to do some intraday trading based on your decisions? I mean, that's where all trading adrenaline is, and i like it very much! Of course, also some stress sometime, but comeon i like it anyway.
  • #189
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:31pm Sep 20, 2008 7:31pm
In a nutshell, you come into this thread belittling me and making false accusations of my activities at FF. Of course I am not just going to roll over and take it!

Quoting tenantro
It doesn't but thank you for your suggestion any way, but don't try to make it sound like it was of more use or importance that it actually was.
The point was that I try to help people with their trading. Whether my suggestion was of any help to you or not is irrelevant.... it maybe exactly what another DSP system programmer needed to improve THEIR system.
  • #190
  • Sep 20, 2008 7:59pm Sep 20, 2008 7:59pm
Yo tdion chill ya boots son. You lot are really twistin me melon!

To get the thread back on track. Admit it-Your pfofits are based on luck.

Do you believe it is possible to confidently state the success rate of a system/method. If your premise is correct then the state of the markets is constantly in flux and therefore the probability of successs based on a set of rules can never be truly defined.

Also do you believe any known probabilistic distribution can succesfully describe price motion? For example the Bollinger bands prove that the normal distribution is useless to describe financial data. Have you applied any other formula to historic prices with any success?
  • #191
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:19pm Sep 20, 2008 8:19pm
jerry... jerry... jerry... jerry...
  • #192
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:23pm Sep 20, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting Rabid
jerry... jerry... jerry... jerry...
You is a daawwwwg!
  • #193
  • Edited 8:40pm Sep 20, 2008 8:27pm | Edited 8:40pm
Not that I want you to leave, but how about your own words? From your post# 9 in the MA Optimization thread you started:

"there is no way to prove or disprove the an edge exists with TA alone, but a large sample size can give you statistical confidence. the reason 5,000 trades over 8 years is convincing is that it is:

  1. enough of a population size to consider better than lucky
  2. a wide variety of market conditions (sideways, trending, etc)

so if the results are linear over 8 years with a large population, it does say SOMETHING....


the bottom line is that there is probably an edge (cause/effect) that is invisible to us, but is there."


If there is an edge, then there is no luck.


Quoting tdion
okay i'll make a deal with you.

prove that luck isn't a part of forex trading, and i'll leave the forums forever.

hint) you can't
  • #194
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:28pm Sep 20, 2008 8:28pm
mmm... why not take a survey: success at forex is luck as opposed to skill, analysis

luck:

skill/analysis/probability/chance:
rfbu

wonder if this will add fuel to fire??
  • #195
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:29pm Sep 20, 2008 8:29pm
Roy Munson; "Who are you callin' a psycho!?"
It really is that easy.
  • #196
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:37pm Sep 20, 2008 8:37pm
Quote
Also do you believe any known probabilistic distribution can succesfully describe price motion? For example the Bollinger bands prove that the normal distribution is useless to describe financial data. Have you applied any other formula to historic prices with any success?
It proves that volatility isn't homogeneous, that it expands and contracts over time. However it doesn't, in and of itself (altho other things do) prove that the normal distribution is wrong for price data since the bands may simply not be a large enough sample for confidence.

Still, this is in and of itself can be an edge for you, ie: a place where the markets can't be efficient and where you can profit. Map the distribution of intra-day reversals to the clock and you'll notice that a large number start in relatively small blocks of time thru the day. Thus if you were trading a reversal strategy you would be wise to confine your efforts to such times, reducing your exposure during less certain times.

There are numerous examples of these little inefficiencies. But nobody's going to just give them to you, you've got to do the work yourself.

Quote
so if the results are linear over 8 years with a large population, it does say SOMETHING....
Returns do tend to follow a normal distribution, so w/ a large enough population you can calculate the std deviation. That, however, isn't perfect since market behavior isn't homogeneous. The market can behave quite well for 5 years, then have an unpredictable event within the span of a few days and wipe everyone out. Enter the so-called "volatility smile."

Clearly how you handle unpredictable events will determine the long term survival of your system, so a careful analysis of fault handling alongside the distribution of results will give you better insight.
  • #197
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:43pm Sep 20, 2008 8:43pm
Read the first few posts, then skipped to this spot so apologies if someone made this point already, but whoever said earlier:

that you put on a trade, then exit at some point, in between everything is out of you control - is only half right.

To put on or not put on a trade is an expression of control and then later when and where to exit. Of course where the market is at presently and where it moves to effects this.

Kind of like driving a car on a highway. Depending on how heavy the traffic is and the speed cars around us are driving might determine how slow/fast we go. So there are times when we have more control and other times when we have less.

Not "no control" or "total control" but in sync and adjust to the conditions we are currently experiencing or will experience in the future.
  • #198
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:46pm Sep 20, 2008 8:46pm
eagle that is an excellent point. there's only one flaw in the logic.

1) i don't have a system that is profitable after 5000 trades

2) if such a system exists (and the edge is invisible) then the edge could be removed without us knowing it. case and point: i am willing to bet that lehman brothers collapse has caused the huge gain in ATR on the EURUSD in the past week (check out the "loss of 3.8% in forex liquidity" thread)

Quoting eagle4x
Not that I want you to leave, but how about your own words? From your post# 9 in the MA Optimization thread you started:
  • #199
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:53pm Sep 20, 2008 8:53pm
ATR(14) bottomed Aug 5th and has been climbing rapidly ever since other than end Aug/Early Sept to the tune of 210%.
  • #200
  • Sep 20, 2008 9:08pm Sep 20, 2008 9:08pm
[quote=tdion;2231312]where does one find information about "what goes on behind the candles?" without working at a bank, and observing how the CBs and trading desks react, how can you ever know?

is there a book out there that covers forex fundamentals? not the stupid "forex made easy" book with head and shoulders patterns. i want to nail down some cause/effect here.

the problem is that most information about trading is based purely on candle formations. surely there is some material available that examines the "human" aspect, as you call it.

tdion,
This is where the rubber meets the road! The short answer to your question is "No!". No one one on this forum can give you any insight into a definable, measurable edge in forex trading. I do not believe such a thing exists, and if it does (highly doubtful) no one will share it. Everyone on here telling you that they have a "method" to win in forex are sheep, and sheep get slaughtered (due respect to Gordon Gekko!). However, if we just accept your premise that luck plays a big part in forex----infinate possibilities open up. There are many good strategies posted here at FF that, apllied correctly, and with a little luck, could return you a handsome sum of $ in the short run. All will fail if given enough time and exposure to the market. Short term trading strategy and a smile from Lady Luck can, and has, made millionaires in the forex market.

Best to you tdion, and good luck. Personally, I don't see how you take the noobie abuse---I know it is the way of the web, but it must be tiring.
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