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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,061
  • Sep 19, 2008 9:35am Sep 19, 2008 9:35am
Quoting Jideck
I have been listening to your lessons and come back to the conclusion that your 4h system is very simple indeed. If you need to look for the candles to bounce off the 21 to confirm the rythm then it is a matter to mastering only the other indicators like MACD signals, MA 89 and 200, trendline breaks, news, candle formations and money management. Would you agree? I was expecting a mind bogling system with all this indicators but what I am finding is that it is a more selfmastering system with psychology as the main igredient.
I have not finished the whole program, this is just my early observations. You put emphasis on great number of things, and I wonder if I will ever be able to learn all of them.
Thanks for your efforts.
Jideck
You've got it. It's a simple concept. Recognizing the high probability areas is the key. As I've said before, Phillip is the Jedi Master so his knowledge i way beyond ours...

Patience young Skywalker...

4 hour charts are crazy!
  • #17,062
  • Sep 19, 2008 10:16am Sep 19, 2008 10:16am
Quoting Ted1983
maybe not then!
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  • #17,063
  • Sep 19, 2008 10:30am Sep 19, 2008 10:30am
This is a good strategy…but it’s not too risky when you relay in only one indicator?
  • #17,064
  • Edited Sep 20, 2008 3:12am Sep 19, 2008 12:02pm | Edited Sep 20, 2008 3:12am
hi ,

I would like to ask if this counts as back from zero , so I need to go long at the next candle , or I was suppose to take the last one ?

and one more question , where in this method I put my stop loss? the take profit is clear to me , but I did not see any refference to the stop loss isssue..

many thanks,
Barak
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  • #17,065
  • Sep 19, 2008 2:09pm Sep 19, 2008 2:09pm
Hi Everyone,

I have a question which I think is pertinent given the volatility of the markets during the past week.

I haven't completed all of the materials for the strategy just yet, but my understanding is that any trade with a risk of more than 50 pips on the 4 hour TF is considered (too) large. I know that Phillip will sometimes take these trades but splits his entry and looks for the price to retrace to enter some of the lots.

However, given the volatile times is 50 pips too small? There have been some potential trades that would have been profitable but I have let pass due to the size of the signal candle.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.
James The Beekeeper
  • #17,066
  • Sep 19, 2008 9:15pm Sep 19, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting AngelaTrix
This is a good strategy…but it’s not too risky when you relay in only one indicator?
It's not just an indicator, it's also a pattern recognition system, identifying price patterns it's price action and price action is vital in most strategies...
  • #17,067
  • Sep 20, 2008 3:28am Sep 20, 2008 3:28am
I was surprised to read the strategy here:
http://www.unfx.ru/strategies_to_tra...tegies_134.php
Apparently a copy or is it the original strategy ?
  • #17,068
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:10am Sep 20, 2008 6:10am
Quoting eTrader
I was surprised to read the strategy here:
http://www.unfx.ru/strategies_to_tra...tegies_134.php
Apparently a copy or is it the original strategy ?
I think somebody just copied Phillip Nel's 4h macd system! That's it. Russian web-site!
THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN
  • #17,069
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:22am Sep 20, 2008 6:22am
it's the first page of this thread as was posted long time ago... now the system has been improved...
  • #17,070
  • Sep 20, 2008 8:25am Sep 20, 2008 8:25am
Guys, copying the strategy is no big deal. Phil could dump all the indicators and still make profitable trades. Its not as if anyone can "copyright" moving averages or a mathematical indicator anyway. The beauty of this thread is not in the indicators. Change the 21 EMA to a 30SMA or swap the MACD for RSI the principals remain the same.

The quality of the thread comes from the discussion of price action around S/R, not the indicators on the chart.
  • #17,071
  • Sep 20, 2008 9:19am Sep 20, 2008 9:19am
Thank you for every thing about this system, its wonderful.............it has catapaulted my trades to unexpected levels.Thank you once again.The key to this system is just to master price action around the EMAs.My question is- do you avoid all the news or some important news while applying this system?Pls I will appreciate you kind advice on this!Any forumite could help !
  • #17,072
  • Sep 20, 2008 11:23am Sep 20, 2008 11:23am
Quoting eTrader
I was surprised to read the strategy here:
http://www.unfx.ru/strategies_to_tra...tegies_134.php
Apparently a copy or is it the original strategy ?
unbelievable
  • #17,073
  • Sep 20, 2008 11:27am Sep 20, 2008 11:27am
If I am analyzing the market rhythm in relation to the MA's would this be correct on the EUR/USD

Monthly
Above the 89 pulled back to the 21 moved above the 21 and is back looking at moving down to the 89.

Weekly
At the 89 seeking direction. Maybe a move back to the 21 or possible down since the monthly trend is down.

Daily
Down below the 89 returned to the 21 looking to move down?

4 hour
Above the 89 looking for a return down to the 21? Looking at possible resistance at a monthly/Weekly trend line @ 1.4580.

I have been following the thread for a while. I am trying to learn and make sure I know the rules of system.
thanks for your help!
  • #17,074
  • Sep 20, 2008 5:20pm Sep 20, 2008 5:20pm
Thanks for your words of encouragement. This forex business is very much a 'lone ranger' business and you really need support. I appreciate your inputs. I have a question with regard to money management, what is the best approach and is there a formula to follow. I see that Philip uses a 3 entry strategy, does it mean that he actually enters 3 times or not?
Thanks
Jideck
  • #17,075
  • Edited 11:56pm Sep 20, 2008 11:27pm | Edited 11:56pm
Attached is a H4 chart. The trend is down.

But late last Thursday it got a push up. This was followed by a gap-up on Friday! And all day Friday it stayed in what looks to be the upper half of a range established by the Thursday and Friday trading. The last half of Friday trading had the price cycling about the 89 SMA.

Volume supports the trend down. The NVO (Normalized Volume Oscillator) shows that all the periods where the volume is heavy above normal is at the highs, or on runs down.

So, this has me thinking that the big money boys have this in a range to give them time to offload their long positions and take on short positions. This is just a hypothesis.

The range is about 1.3900 to 1.4500, which is plenty large to accommodate trading until there is a breakout. So, for the time being, I am going to be looking for setups each time the price starts to drop from a position in the upper half of the range. Trading a downward move, as opposed to an upwards one, is in the direction of the longer term trend, and therefore less risky. A sudden spike against the trade would also be against the trend.

If we get a breakout to the upside, then that could spell a trend reversal.
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  • #17,076
  • Sep 21, 2008 3:09am Sep 21, 2008 3:09am
because , a signal divergence , from the calculation fibo which , the price is will between 1.4500-1.4599 agree to go down to continually until 1.3396
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  • #17,077
  • Sep 21, 2008 4:01am Sep 21, 2008 4:01am
Quoting Barak's pip
hi ,

I would like to ask if this counts as back from zero , so I need to go long at the next candle , or I was suppose to take the last one ?

and one more question , where in this method I put my stop loss? the take profit is clear to me , but I did not see any refference to the stop loss isssue..

many thanks,
Barak
why nobody is answering me?
  • #17,078
  • Edited 1:41pm Sep 21, 2008 8:50am | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting forexsoul
Thank you for every thing about this system, its wonderful.............it has catapaulted my trades to unexpected levels.Thank you once again.The key to this system is just to master price action around the EMAs.My question is- do you avoid all the news or some important news while applying this system?Pls I will appreciate you kind advice on this!Any forumite could help !
Up to now the MACD has moved with the news most of the time so I dont really wait for news accept when there is up and down moves and activity we had the last week or so. I will watch the news for any counter news/moves and then decided on that if I will close or not.

Edit
Except for interest rates and Nonfarm Payrolls NFP news. Stay out of these.
  • #17,079
  • Sep 21, 2008 8:56am Sep 21, 2008 8:56am
Quoting Barak's pip
hi ,

I would like to ask if this counts as back from zero , so I need to go long at the next candle , or I was suppose to take the last one ?

and one more question , where in this method I put my stop loss? the take profit is clear to me , but I did not see any refference to the stop loss isssue..

many thanks,
Barak

Both signals can be BOZ but I have put the first one as TC because of it found support on the MACD zero for more than one bar, but dont stress over it. Both can be seen as BOZ(Bounce off zero)
Attached Image
  • #17,080
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:34pm Sep 21, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Both signals can be BOZ but I have put the first one as TC because of it found support on the MACD zero for more than one bar, but dont stress over it. Both can be seen as BOZ(Bounce off zero)
thank you
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