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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #61
  • Sep 18, 2008 4:25pm Sep 18, 2008 4:25pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Just discussion.

Personally, I get more from this than System/Indicator/Call threads.
Here, here! After the first one or two pages they're a boring waste of time.

Long E/U 1.433 TP 1.46 SL 1.413! Oo, oo! Yeah, I'm on it!!

Puhleeze.
  • #62
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:11pm Sep 18, 2008 5:11pm
good "luck" indeed....
Quoting Prettyboy
good luck with your trading.
  • #63
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:12pm Sep 18, 2008 5:12pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...3&postcount=27

Quoting hilmy83
Do you think the other 5% think it's luck?
  • #64
  • Edited 5:46pm Sep 18, 2008 5:14pm | Edited 5:46pm
never said that....

Quoting Rosscub
So a lottery and trading the financial markets are the same thing? Hmmm...I'm begining to see why you are so jaded.
the point was, preparation is no substitute for luck in many of life's endeavors. lucky timing should be acknowledged. suppose you are single, and meet the person of your dreams.... alas, they are already in a relationship. it could have worked out great, but the timing was off....


BTW, the whole "jaded" thing. i call it like i see it. i never said people can't be profitable. i hope to make several thousand percent next year. all i said was, give LUCK it's fair due.
  • #65
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:17pm Sep 18, 2008 5:17pm
so you are saying there was a guaranteed profit from going short, just because your friend said so? GIVE ME A BREAK.

Quoting greengo
On my birthday 16 July, a friend who is a trader called me by my phone. He is giving me a birthday present and ask me to short GbpUsd. Short GU no matter what happen. 2 months later he called me again saying he is in town and wanted to meet me. Look at GU chart on 16 July and how much it moves for the next 2 months. Is it luck or something else?
BTW, all the mumbo jumbo about verticle and horizontal worlds are just an attempt to rationalize chaos. forex is a jungle full of unpredictable and unforseen events... especially on lower timeframes.

well, even higher timeframes.
  • #66
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:18pm Sep 18, 2008 5:18pm
i can't say that i agree with this. it is very possible to make a large fortune with forex in a few months. see the equity curve i posted here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=103920

Quoting FX-Petra
"It is impossible to trade the markets day after day, year after year, to try and eek out a living as a day trader. You will be emlimated. It is possible to devise a short term strategy and make enough $ in the short run to not have to worry about day trading anymore."
  • #67
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:19pm Sep 18, 2008 5:19pm


Quoting mbqb11
you are sicker then I thought LOL
  • #68
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:22pm Sep 18, 2008 5:22pm


(yawn) even richard dennis and paul rotter lost huge sums after hitting it big. birkshire hathaway (buffet) has had losing years.

so you are telling me that the "know how" guarantees profit? guarantee is the antonym of gambling. so if it is so cut and dry, why aren't you banking the 100% win rate with multi-million dollar accounts instead of posting garbage on my thread?

Quoting Prettyboy
luck is when you gamble and win, trading is not gambling, you either have the know how to trade or you don't, simple.
  • #69
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:25pm Sep 18, 2008 5:25pm
i'd like to interject a thought i had at work today.

the minute you press buy or sell, the market can turn against you EVERY SINGLE TIME! there is nothing stopping it from doing that....

so even if you exit the minute you enter, you are still paying spreads.

there is no evidence that trading is not gambling. i have given the proof that EVERY TRADER can lose EVERY TRADE THEY TAKE.
  • #70
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:33pm Sep 18, 2008 5:33pm
Quoting tdion
i can't say that i agree with this. it is very possible to make a large fortune with forex in a few months. see the equity curve i posted here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=103920
I guess you miss took me, tdion. I know you can make a fortune in the short run. I am trying to do that right now. What cannot be done is to consistently pull profits out of the market day in and day out for 10+ years. You can get rich in forex, but you cannot make a living from it!
  • #71
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:49pm Sep 18, 2008 5:49pm
okay i'm with you i'll say that is a lot more probable to have a losing period the longer you trade...

Quoting FX-Petra
I guess you miss took me, tdion. I know you can make a fortune in the short run. I am trying to do that right now. What cannot be done is to consistently pull profits out of the market day in and day out for 10+ years. You can get rich in forex, but you cannot make a living from it!
  • #72
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:54pm Sep 18, 2008 5:54pm
Quoting tdion
BTW, the whole "jaded" thing. i call it like i see it.
Hi Tidion,

I'm sure you do call it like YOU see it, for, "We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are." Anais Nin

I have been around these forums for quite a while; although, it has been sporadic at times, and I have not always been very active. I remember you when you first started posting here. As I recall, you were very creative and enthusiastic about the new world of trading currencies that you had discovered. Now, instead of appearing seasoned with a healthy amount of skepticism, you seem cynical and perhaps even bitter. Are you angry that your world view of Forex didn't meet your expectations? What event prompted you to begin your campaign of criticism and unconstructive comments? Perhaps you feel like you are doling out "tough love," but quite honestly, most of the time you just come off as being an ass.

I'm not trying to be hash with you, Tdion. I'm just "calling it like I see it."

Quoting tdion
i never said people can't be profitable. i hope to make several thousand percent next year. all i said was, give LUCK it's fair due.
I understand your point, but I would retort with please give the TRADER his fair due.
Visit my journal here.
  • #73
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:55pm Sep 18, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting tdion
i'd like to interject a thought i had at work today.

the minute you press buy or sell, the market can turn against you EVERY SINGLE TIME! there is nothing stopping it from doing that....

so even if you exit the minute you enter, you are still paying spreads.

there is no evidence that trading is not gambling. i have given the proof that EVERY TRADER can lose EVERY TRADE THEY TAKE.
By that same reasoning, a trader COULD win every trade he ever takes. As you said, there is nothing from preventing that.
Visit my journal here.
  • #74
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:58pm Sep 18, 2008 5:58pm
There is always luck in trading, BUT , your job as a trader is to reduce how much luck affects the performance of your system.

If you let luck dictate too much of your performance then you might as well gamble your money in a casino.

Bottom line is luck can make you win more pips on a certain trade or loss more pips on a certain trade, but overall it shouldn't be the defining characteristic that makes your system profitable...
Private message me for a link to my order flow website.
  • #75
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:07pm Sep 18, 2008 6:07pm
again we get back to lucky timing.

here's a business world example. the mouse was invented by xerox in the 1980s. it failed miserably.... yet has become one of the most purchased items in history.

xerox had bad timing. had they come up with the invention a few years later, they would have made a fortune.

Quoting Prettyboy
some businees people know whats the best set-up for there business and where theres is a strong chance they can make some money and some don't, but it's not base on luck it's understanding the market your in.
  • #76
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:10pm Sep 18, 2008 6:10pm
true that. but winning trades is not the point.... the point is that there is no certainty, thus the gambling situation....

so sing high praises to the gambling gods when you collect your green pips.

Quoting Rosscub
By that same reasoning, a trader COULD win every trade he ever takes. As you said, there is nothing from preventing that.
  • #77
  • Edited 7:23pm Sep 18, 2008 7:06pm | Edited 7:23pm
To anyone interested in how I see trading:

I am not as jaded as I may seem. I am a Computer Scientist by trade. I am very astute in pattern recognition and efficiency.

Basically, my approach is to take a huge set of data, and find patterns (setups) that would have been historically profitable. I write EAs with the patterns in them, and watch how it performs in realtime. (Mind you, I look back at several years of performance to avoid curve fitting.)

So I am not your typical trader. I do not watch the terminal, looking for daily dojis or 123 patterns on the hourly (though I am not against learning these techniques.) I am a strong proponent of removing emotion from the trades.

At the end of the day, the chart will make whatever pattern it is going to. It is what it is. And the software I write is on a collision course with it. The bottom line is that trading is a spectator sport to me.

And nothing amuses me more than seeing guys draw triangles and fib lines on a forex chart, because forex is not a true free market (too much chaos from central bankers and corporations converting funds.)
  • #78
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:59pm Sep 18, 2008 8:59pm
All technical analysis is basically pattern recognition. Traders observe that when "B" follows "A" and proceeds "C" a high percentage of the time, then it is reasonable to expect "C" when you see an "A-B" pattern in the future.

Now Tdion, you are a computer scientist and you think like a computer scientist (absolutely nothing wrong with that), so it would make sense that you find patterns in data sets, number sequences, etc. You are a scientist and you approach the world as a science experiment.

If you were a different sort of person, you would view the world differently. Studies have actually shown that the cognitive functioning of an artist is different from that of a non-artist. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/leonard...34.1solso.html Perhaps if you were a chArtist you would see patterns in the pictures of price over time. You may even be inclined to paint lines and geometric shapes to enhance the patterns you perceive. Is one mental map of the external terrain superior to the other? Well, in this game, being profitable equals being successful, so if someone's account is growing month after month, can you really argue with success?

You stated that this isn't a totally free market due to events such as corporations exchanging currencies, but these events are either too small to make a difference or they are significant enough to create a psychological reaction in the masses. And that is what really moves the markets, psychological reactions to perceived value and changes in value.

In trading, you don't have to have a complete picture in order turn a profit. That is why some traders can use technical indicators while others use price action patterns and both be profitable. You can even add or subtract fundamental analysis and it not affect the bottom line. The point is that the missing information doesn't necessarily mean a less accurate prediction. They have just finished building the Large Hydron Collider in order to smash protons together at amazing high speeds with the hopes of uncovering information that is missing from physics (such as dark matter), but even with the current state of physics having an incomplete picture of our universe, it is still capable of making highly accurate predictions.

I've rambled a bit, but the point I'm trying to make is this, if someone else has a different trading world view from your own, it doesn't mean it is less accurate or less useful than the one you employ. Thinking otherwise waste too much forum space on prejudice comments.

I'm tired, and I have to get up early to trade. Good night everyone.
Visit my journal here.
  • #79
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:27pm Sep 18, 2008 9:27pm
i am fact oriented. i don't get into things until i get my facts straight. that's why i generally hit the center of the bullseye.

now i appreciate what you've said. i really do. but the bottom line is that trading forex is gambling. that's all there is to it.
  • #80
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:30pm Sep 18, 2008 9:30pm
Quoting tdion
blindfold 100 people and get them to walk across the interstate. 95 will get run over, the other 5 will make it.
ive heard this argument many times before ...i dont buy it though if you look at a profitable traders track record, many of which are publicly available via hedge funds, its plain to see this is not some random pattern. does luck play a part in trading? in the short run, yes. in the long run, no!! the only way to be profitable in the long run is to have an edge. having a REAL edge (and good risk control, of course!) can counter any bad luck that comes your way. in fact one of the major focuses of any good trader (or card counter) is to minimize the part that luck plays. i think you have a healthy dose of skeptism in your attitude tdion, but saying that all trading success/failure relies on luck is clearly proven wrong by the heaps of public records of traders, both good and bad. think about this... if luck played a big role, there would be many more successful traders it sounds to me that this thread is aimed at the average trader here at FF, who yes are at the mercy of luck, but the trading world is not well represented by this forum or any other forum for that matter. you need to look elsewhere to answer these BIG questions about trading.

Quoting tdion
Basically, my approach is to take a huge set of data, and find patterns (setups) that would have been historically profitable. I write EAs with the patterns in them, and watch how it performs in realtime.
this is an old technique (like 30 years old!) and its prone to failure. this is addressed extensively in the market wizard books as well as fred gehms book. if you search for thousands of patterns, obviously a few good ones will pop up. but what have you done other than predict the past? if you read my article i wrote for S&C, youll see that my opinion is that you are going about this backward. i believe in starting with a fundamental premise (which can only be derived from market experience) and then build the system based on that premise. dont let the data tell you what to do, instead you should come up with a premise and "ask" the data if you are right or wrong about it. and you cant ask too many times, because then the data will start to control you. control the system development process or it will control you!
Relax and be happy.
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