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Admit it - your profits are based on luck

  • #41
  • Sep 18, 2008 12:05pm Sep 18, 2008 12:05pm
Excellent post... you aren't wrong at all...

There is a thread on the Rookies forum, and a trader that worked for a bank said that they hunt stops.

Quoting greengo
If trading is based on luck and 95% of traders has bad luck permanently born with them. Its a bad situation and I disagree and I dont believe in luck.

Example about trading. You may define it as luck or something else. On my birthday 16 July, a friend who is a trader called me by my phone. He is giving me a birthday present and ask me to short GbpUsd. Short GU no matter what happen. 2 months later he called me again saying he is in town and wanted to meet me. Fyi, he travels a lot. From the pictures he sent me, I believe he has been around the world or most of it. Look at GU chart on 16 July and how much it moves for the next 2 months. Is it luck or something else?

I have a different theory about trading and it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with our world and how we view forex in relation with our world. Believe it or not, we are born into a square world. Everything is horizontal and vertical. We grow up seeing everything vertical and horizontal. Tv, pc monitor, doors, windows, everything. Look around you and tell me what you see. Living in a square world makes you believe and perceive everything is either vertical or horizontal.

Forex is a different world. It is not based on vertical and horizontal lines. Any indicators or system that is based on vertical or horizontal line will eventually fail. This is because we view forex as we view our world. The calculation and logic is not the same. That is why 95% of traders failed.

Unfortunately no one can be told what the world of forex is. You have to see for your self.
  • #42
  • Sep 18, 2008 12:20pm Sep 18, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting tdion

She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.
I'm not too sure about the market ruining me, but the Plung Protection Team has done some major damage at times. Would someone please create a clog indicator so I can tell when the PPT will show up?
  • #43
  • Sep 18, 2008 12:56pm Sep 18, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting tdion
She is your dance partner. You don't control her. She controls herself. Your skills and timing might be impeccible, but she can ruin the dance routine.
And maybe sometimes she drinks too much champagne and steps on your toes.

Quoting Micro-MiniMe
I'm not too sure about the market ruining me, but the Plung Protection Team has done some major damage at times. Would someone please create a clog indicator so I can tell when the PPT will show up?
And maybe sometimes the band starts playing different tunes.



Sheesh, this is starting to sound like fti's thread..
  • #44
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:14pm Sep 18, 2008 1:14pm
Do you think the other 5% think it's luck?
  • #45
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:29pm Sep 18, 2008 1:29pm
Amazing how fast one of Tdion's threads can grow

I'm of the school that believes it is gambling (bad luck) when you lose, but speculation (skill) when you win.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #46
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:35pm Sep 18, 2008 1:35pm
luck is when you gamble and win, trading is not gambling, you either have the know how to trade or you don't, simple.
  • #47
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:39pm Sep 18, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting tdion
wow. your philosophy is completely different than mine. it's ridiculous to think that a setup somehow guarantees anything ("it was going there any way")

nobody really knows anything. that's the point of the thread.
so you think your trading is base on luck and not your skills as a trader, if that the case i can just open my platform and hit buy or sell and hope im lucky to make a profit. good luck with your trading.
  • #48
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:45pm Sep 18, 2008 1:45pm
tdion, your wright that nobody know anything, i guess the 5% that do make it in this business shouldn't tell what they know, because they do know something that the 95% don't know.
  • #49
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:46pm Sep 18, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting Prettyboy
luck is when you gamble and win, trading is not gambling, you either have the know how to trade or you don't, simple.
I agree with you to a point but trading is gambling.

Wikipedia defines gambling as, "wagering money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods."

Skilled gamblers like skilled traders can tip the odds in their favour.
  • #50
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:50pm Sep 18, 2008 1:50pm
Quoting Ted1983
I agree with you to a point but trading is gambling.

Wikipedia defines gambling as, "wagering money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods."

Skilled gamblers like skilled traders can tip the odds in their favour.
you have a point, but less take a slot machine for example, you put in a coin hit the lever and hope that the 3 numbers match to make some money, would you put this in the same class as trading, no because you will be trading blindly, that will be the same as hitting buy or sell on your platform for no reason, what im saying your trades or base on something, and some traders know when to enter and exit a trade.
  • #51
  • Sep 18, 2008 1:56pm Sep 18, 2008 1:56pm
its like blaming the market when you win and blaming the market when you loose, what about the actions of the trader for not knowing how to trade. i don't think my profit is base on luck.
  • #52
  • Sep 18, 2008 2:15pm Sep 18, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting Prettyboy
so you think your trading is base on luck and not your skills as a trader, if that the case i can just open my platform and hit buy or sell and hope im lucky to make a profit. good luck with your trading.
Hello again PB!

I still think that Tdion's point is being missed. He can correct me
if I'm wrong.

I'll try again:

You place your trade.

What happens next is wholly based on the market - i.e. other
participants transactions being executed (the likes of which
are so numerous and complex as to be unknowable by you).
Therefore, affecting your position in a way which is also in
no way in your control.

Then, you exit.

The end.


P.S. You will say that your correct action circumvents chance
but, not the chance that exists in the midst of your position
being open. Otherwise, what are we getting paid for as traders?
Assuming risk. Exposure. That's what. This can, and should be
managed. But, how can you eliminate it?
  • #53
  • Sep 18, 2008 2:17pm Sep 18, 2008 2:17pm
ok one more example then im done, lets take the lottery, you pick a number and go home and see if your number came out if it did then you was lucky, there was no skills or talent require you just happen to pick the wright number so thats luck, you can't just pick a trade and see if your trade is gonna become a winner, it take skills and talent to be trader, that traders must understand the market and know when to enter and exit a trade and thats takes a lot of skills. i hope im clear it's hard for me to get my point accross.
  • #54
  • Sep 18, 2008 2:22pm Sep 18, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Hello again PB!

I still think that Tdion's point is being missed. He can correct me
if I'm wrong.

I'll try again:

You place your trade.

What happens next is wholly based on the market - i.e. other
participants transactions being executed (the likes of which
are so numerous and complex as to be unknowable by you).
Therefore, affecting your position in a way which is also in
no way in your control.

Then, you exit.

The end.


P.S. You will say that your correct action circumvents chance
but, not the chance that exists in the midst of your position
being open. Otherwise, what are we getting paid for as traders?
Assuming risk. Exposure. That's what. This can, and should be
managed. But, how can you eliminate it?
any business you get into there is no control of a fair market, like any business the outcome is out of your control, and thats any bussiness just think about it, every business there's a market weather it's retail or any other one the outcome is uncertain, thats why you get some business that fail and some that makes it, some businees people know whats the best set-up for there business and where theres is a strong chance they can make some money and some don't, but it's not base on luck it's understanding the market your in.
  • #55
  • Sep 18, 2008 2:49pm Sep 18, 2008 2:49pm
Wow, do you guys sometimes find yourselves arguing with your own shadows? Less time spent arguing about this crap and you might enhance your probability of making money in the future.
  • #56
  • Sep 18, 2008 2:49pm Sep 18, 2008 2:49pm
B.T.W. sorry if i offended anyone.
  • #57
  • Sep 18, 2008 2:53pm Sep 18, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting birdt
Wow, do you guys sometimes find yourselves arguing with your own shadows? Less time spent arguing about this crap and you might enhance your probability of making money in the future.
Just discussion.

Personally, I get more from this than System/Indicator/Call threads.
  • #58
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:27pm Sep 18, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Just discussion.

Personally, I get more from this than System/Indicator/Call threads.
I'll drink to that!
  • #59
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:57pm Sep 18, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Just discussion.

Personally, I get more from this than System/Indicator/Call threads.

Me too. The Calendar here is excellent.
  • #60
  • Sep 18, 2008 4:16pm Sep 18, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting birdt
Wow, do you guys sometimes find yourselves arguing with your own shadows? Less time spent arguing about this crap and you might enhance your probability of making money in the future.
very wise words
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