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  • #741
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:03am Sep 18, 2008 7:03am
Quoting lolla
I agree fx pipin...eu is howing respect to the fib retracements and fib zones...look at the respect shown to the 38.2 and 50 levels and of course the 61.8 level.....and as it has taken out the 987 level I guess the tp should be the 1597 level @1.3310 which also overlaps the 100 extension.

Thanks for your reply. I agree that the TP should be at the @ 1597 level becouse of the overlaping of the fib expansion. Lets see what happens.
  • #742
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:03am Sep 18, 2008 7:03am
We have a 4hr CHF chart. With the fib zones and fibs pulled form the last swing low @ 0.9635. Price has gone up and taken out the 1597 fib zone and has started to retrace. I pulled fib B from the swing low @ 0.9635 to the last swing high @ 1.1424. Now we will watch price to see if it can retrace back toone of the inner fib levels of fib B. If it does it will validate the fib and we can pull our fib expansion to get a price projection. Note that the 38% fib retrace level of fib B is just above the 987 fib zone and a strong support level (yellow line). I believe that if price can get past the consolidation (grey shadded area) it will continue down to either the inner fibs of fib B or the 987 fib zone. When it gets down to that area I would be looking to get long again.
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  • #743
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:29am Sep 18, 2008 7:29am
Quoting Fx Pipin
Harmony is also seen in the weekly chart as you can see the fib expansion over laping the 1597 level. Any constructive criticism is appreciated.
LOL - I'll try.....the problem that I have with your chart - and I've already put it up and considered it myself - is the use of 1.4907 as the start for a valid fib.

As you can see, it couldn't even make a 23.6% retracement and thus I dont know if it should be used as a Fib Zone Zero line......another "grey" area - well for me.....http://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #744
  • Edited 7:59am Sep 18, 2008 7:33am | Edited 7:59am
fx pippin:"I'm actually going short on this pair. I see harmony for a short. I shorten it yesterday after carefully looking at it. Right now it is going against me but i am hoping for a move back south. Look at my chart there is resistance at the 61.8 fib retracement level which over laps the 377 fib sequence level. My TP is the 987 level."

Quoting lolla
I agree fx pipin...eu is howing respect to the fib retracements and fib zones...look at the respect shown to the 38.2 and 50 levels and of course the 61.8 level.....and as it has taken out the 987 level I guess the tp should be the 1597 level @1.3310 which also overlaps the 100 extension.
Finally. . . somebody else on the same page as I am!! I keep seeing others with all these diff. fib numbers, but I have the same as you two do!! If I could have just trusted what I was seeing, I would have been short as well at the 61.8 (from the 4907 to the 3882) and 377 area!! Oh well, I just got scared with all this news going on with banks and ins co., so I didn't trade it. And like I said, wasn't sure what to think since others were posting different fibs!! I'm not sure where this currency is going, but it's nice to see that my numbers have worked so far, and that maybe I am learning this after all!!!
  • #745
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:18am Sep 18, 2008 8:18am
Quoting Islander
LOL - I'll try.....the problem that I have with your chart - and I've already put it up and considered it myself - is the use of 1.4907 as the start for a valid fib.

As you can see, it couldn't even make a 23.6% retracement and thus I dont know if it should be used as a Fib Zone Zero line......another "grey" area - well for me.....http://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

This is how my chart looks. I see perfect harmony.
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  • #746
  • Edited 8:21am Sep 18, 2008 8:21am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting Islander
LOL - I'll try.....the problem that I have with your chart - and I've already put it up and considered it myself - is the use of 1.4907 as the start for a valid fib.

As you can see, it couldn't even make a 23.6% retracement and thus I dont know if it should be used as a Fib Zone Zero line......another "grey" area - well for me.....http://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
I have my Fib Zones set for an up move:

I can't see any recent (in the last few weeks) fib harmony to the Downside.

There has been harmony to the Up side so far - though it needs to retrace to at least 1.4290 for that to continue. Still even if it doesn't, we have Fib extensions up at 1.4620, 1.4770, 1.4870 (which overlapps perfectly with the up FZ987) and 1.5240, 1.5270.

There is a nice bullish weekly pinbar.

The only dollar bullish fundie that I can see, is that the ECB has room to reduce interest rates. Until very recently, the expectation was that the Fed would increase rates before the ECB (or that the ECB would cut rates early in next year). I can't see the Fed increasing rates now, unless they really wnat to scr*w the US economy. I am sure that if they had the room, they would cut rates!
  • #747
  • Edited 8:30am Sep 18, 2008 8:26am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting lolla
This is how my chart looks. I see perfect harmony.
But it ran out of fib extensions before the FZ 610. So that was the last FZ it was safe to use.
Edit _ Oh I mised one, OK you have a case. Where does it need to go to change your mind?
  • #748
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:44am Sep 18, 2008 8:44am
Quoting ianf0ster
But it ran out of fib extensions before the FZ 610. So that was the last FZ it was safe to use.
Edit _ Oh I mised one, OK you have a case. Where does it need to go to change your mind?
Well this last big move up was just a 61.8 retrace of the down move from 4907 to 3882. I have the same thing as lolla, and I think it would have to get passed the 61.8 and the 377 fib zone. Not sure by how much, but so far it has hit both of those and headed back down. Sure there's going to be up and down moves along the way, but if it breaks the 4550-4600 area maybe it's changing direction?? But I really have no idea. I would like to know what lolla and fx pippin think, since they are seeing the same fib numbers that I am. Any thoughts??
  • #749
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:57am Sep 18, 2008 8:57am
My thoughts are still bearish too.

Mouteki even said in his last eurusd video that he is waiting for the retracement before looking for it to go south again. He actually said it would probably go back to the 61.8 retracement/377 zone and that is exactly where we are.

I’m puzzled to why people are jumping in on the 15min charts and 1Hr charts and suddenly deciding its going north. I personally would only start plotting fibs long after it hits the 233 zone from the short movement as I don’t feel you can see harmony with the fibs with only one set of retracements, I would need to see 2 fib retracements first.

Remember Mouteki said he is looking for the big moves and this can take weeks to complete. It worth risking a 50pip or 100pip SL if your target is 600 or 1000 pips away.

Listening to his videos again.

Just my thoughts anyway.
  • #750
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:01am Sep 18, 2008 9:01am
Quoting lolla
This is how my chart looks. I see perfect harmony.
lolla beautiful chart. Perfect example of harmony look at the great previous
respect of the 987 level and how it jump to the 61.8 fib retracement which over laps the 377 level and come to a grinding holt and made a U turn wow !
4xisfun we are on the same page
  • #751
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:07am Sep 18, 2008 9:07am
Quoting jonnyasmith
My thoughts are still bearish too.

Mouteki even said in his last eurusd video that he is waiting for the retracement before looking for it to go south again. He actually said it would probably go back to the 61.8 retracement/377 zone and that is exactly where we are.

I’m puzzled to why people are jumping in on the 15min charts and 1Hr charts and suddenly deciding its going north. I personally would only start plotting fibs long after it hits the 233 zone from the short movement as I don’t feel the one can see harmony with the fibs with only one set of retracements, I would need to see 2 fib retracements first.

Remember Mouteki said he is looking for the big moves and this can take weeks to complete. It worth risking a 50pip or 100pip SL if your target is 600 or 1000 pips away.

Listening to his videos again.

Just my thoughts anyway.

WOW!! Someone else in my line of thinking!! I too am puzzled by others using the lower timeframes and pulling fibs to the upside. There for awhile I thought "Boy, I am really not getting this!! How does everyone know to pull fibs going up now? Am I missing something?" And honestly I think the news is just the push it needed to get to the 61.8 retrace. Although I am still kinda leery about the news, so I'm just watching and learning right now. But now I do feel like maybe I'm on the right track with this method!!
  • #752
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:38am Sep 18, 2008 9:38am
I will only consider this to be in an uptrend only if it disrespects the 61.8 and the 377 level.
  • #753
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:55am Sep 18, 2008 9:55am
thanks for all of you that answered my questions , concerning should I look for an up move or down...

as requested I'll put on my charts again without the grid , e\u 4hr , one with fib tools prepairing for an up move (reversal) , one with fibs for down move (contiuation) .. both of them looks logic .. although the one for a down move (as showed by Mouteki) seems to be more in harmony as the price respected the 61.8 fib reracement level , and it's so tempting to go short all the way to the next new low...
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  • #754
  • Edited 12:04pm Sep 18, 2008 10:02am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting Barak's pip
thanks for all of you that answered my questions , concerning should I look for an up move or down...

as requested I'll put on my charts again without the grid , e\u 4hr , one with fib tools prepairing for an up move (reversal) , one with fibs for down move (contiuation) .. both of them looks logic .. although the one for a down move (as showed by Mouteki) seems to be more in harmony as the price respected the 61.8 fib reracement level , and it's so tempting to go short all the way to the next new low...
It is very tempting to go short, isn't it?! But I think I'll still wait and see. . . I guess I could just trade it demo, though.

Fx pipin, I'm with you. This thing is going to have disrespect the 61.8 and 377 area and maybe higher before I think it's reversing. . .
  • #755
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:17am Sep 18, 2008 10:17am
Quoting Fx Pipin
I will only consider this to be in an uptrend only if it disrespects the 61.8 and the 377 level.
it's a good point , to determine if to consider it long or short ... but , as I remember Mouteki in his one of the first videos reffered also to the big move (from 1.6) - so , are the fib zones\retracement of the big move are still valid , can we consider it "short and only retracing" unless it disrespect the 61.8 fib retracement of the big move @ 1.5215 ? it's a lot of pips ...

I keep telling to my self that this is the map of the market , and there are
2\3 missing of this method , so I can use it practiclly , but it's too tempting to take a trade knowing that it can be very proftable..
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  • #756
  • Sep 18, 2008 10:51am Sep 18, 2008 10:51am
Quoting Fx Pipin
I will only consider this to be in an uptrend only if it disrespects the 61.8 and the 377 level.
Thanks fx pipin!! And yes I agree with you, if it disrespects the 61.8 and 377 I guess we need to jump out of the market and reassess. A stop @1.4580 might be good enough...agree with johnyasmith on this, 50-100 pip stop targeting a 1000 pip move..

And guys please remember that mouteki told a zillion times in the videos that he looks at the larger time frames....start with the weekly, then daily and 4 hr....thats it. No 1hr and 15 min according to him.
  • #757
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:16am Sep 18, 2008 11:16am
It is possible that it is on an uptrend after a reversal but like i said i will not consider that untill i see disrespect of those overlapping levels.

This is my opinion, if we look at a bigger picture like on the monthly and see where i placed my fibs it is possible that this currency pair could retrace to the 61.8 level for an uptrend which overlaps the 1597 fib sequence level! Theres also overlapping around the 987 level. Harmony ?

Now lots of fundumentals have to come to place to see such respect. Will the dollar become stronger or is our economy tumbling down a mountain ?
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  • #758
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:28am Sep 18, 2008 11:28am
Why is nobody using the 1.60 level as the starting point of this down move? Why have some decided to use the 4907 level? If you look at the big picture, you'll see we have not even retraced 38% from 1.60.

Thoughts?
  • #759
  • Sep 18, 2008 11:31am Sep 18, 2008 11:31am
EUR/USD - If we use the 9-11 low of 1.3879, we do have harmony. It went up to the 610 fib zone then retraced down to the 233 fib zone that was also a 61.8 fib retracement. It then hit the 610 again. I look for it to takeout the 100 FE at 1.4781
  • #760
  • Edited 11:42am Sep 18, 2008 11:38am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting G550
Why is nobody using the 1.60 level as the starting point of this down move? Why have some decided to use the 4907 level? If you look at the big picture, you'll see we have not even retraced 38% from 1.60.

Thoughts?
I believe another reason i started there and others besides the fact that we have harmony there is that Mouteki himself pointed out himself that harmony doesnt have to be defined at a all time high or a all time low remenber.As long as you have harmony there's flow and the market will breath through out these levels. Lets not forget the videos.
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