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Trend Follower 5 Minute System

  • #2,081
  • Sep 17, 2008 4:46pm Sep 17, 2008 4:46pm
In the attachment of the EURJPY, we do not take this trade since the GREEN lines never went below the RED lines even though the MACD is below the zero line, the Laguerre crossed from above .075 downwards, that's a lot of PIPs to give up waiting for all the signal conditions to be met.

If we wait until the MACD and Laguerre condition is met without waiting for the GREEN/RED condition, that's around 95 PIPs given up to be waiting. Does anyone have ideas to capture these PIPs? I know its better to be safe than sorry....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_5M.jpg Size: 206 KB
  • #2,082
  • Sep 17, 2008 7:14pm Sep 17, 2008 7:14pm
Saw the same thing on EUR/JPY but later around 2235hrs on YOUR chart.
There is a red arrow, MACD is down BUT the Laguerre is still above .75 but slowly coming down.
Guess you stick to the rules, unfortunately I was asleep when the GBP/USD went up 300 pips.
No luck for the last 48 hrs.
  • #2,083
  • Edited Sep 18, 2008 8:17am Sep 17, 2008 7:19pm | Edited Sep 18, 2008 8:17am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
that's a lot of PIPs to give up waiting for all the signal conditions to be met.
..anyone have ideas to capture these PIPs? I know its better to be safe than sorry....
.
I've a charting package from ITFinance & have been trying to compare the two sets of charts. I couldn't get on with MT4 at first so tried to load up the settings as best I could on t'other one. I haven't placed money on the wickers system yet but have spent many hours looking at it.
When I checked the MT4 chart above against my other one I saw that the MACD [both at 5 35 5], was at 0 spot on 8 o'clock [19:00 on MT4's chart], telling a very different story.
I've so far failed to upload a shot of said chart but will see what comes of this.
I'm currently risk assessing taking more pips http://65.55.113.167/att/GetAttachme...9cb&oneredir=1
All the best
  • #2,084
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:10am Sep 18, 2008 3:10am
The EURJPY had all the signals in place and looked a perfect trade about an hour ago.
However, I didn't trade because in remembered something about being cautious about a trade the shots very high. In fact the Eur shot up 103 pips on my systems (MBTrading). So I abstained.
Was I correct?
  • #2,085
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:26am Sep 18, 2008 3:26am
Quoting Stephan13
The EURJPY had all the signals in place and looked a perfect trade about an hour ago.
However, I didn't trade because in remembered something about being cautious about a trade the shots very high. In fact the Eur shot up 103 pips on my systems (MBTrading). So I abstained.
Was I correct?
stefan, post the signal direction as well.
  • #2,086
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:48am Sep 18, 2008 3:48am
The signal was a long signal, in fact it is the last signal on the chart at the moment.
  • #2,087
  • Sep 18, 2008 4:57am Sep 18, 2008 4:57am
Quoting grillz
GPBUSD couple hours ago. nice, eh? too bad i didnt have the window open when it occured. just a bad beat day for me, missing some huge moves.

ok , here is the picture i didnt manage to attach yesterday. before the big move was another false signal as you can see and the big move occured very late in the us session , actually after trading hours for this system i believe. i dont trade this system live but im not sure after 2 false signals yesterday both eur/usd and gbp/usd i would have taken this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pound1.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #2,088
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:23am Sep 18, 2008 5:23am
This is kind of signal we should look for. Why?? Coz, guppy are contracted, that means begining of a new move or trend. Next, price was steady for some time before signal occur. Stop loss is small. ABout 20-25 pips and risk reward ratio is more than 1:1... Everything else this WEEK is too risky to enter and stop loss is too big.
After enter we need to be patient. That is all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #2,089
  • Sep 18, 2008 5:37am Sep 18, 2008 5:37am
Quoting pilatus
This is kind of signal we should look for. Why?? Coz, guppy are contracted, that means begining of a new move or trend. Next, price was steady for some time before signal occur. Stop loss is small. ABout 20-25 pips and risk reward ratio is more than 1:1... Everything else this WEEK is too risky to enter and stop loss is big.
After enter we need to be patient. That is all.
hi pilatus, good to see you postin again after a while. after reading through the whole thread for 2 days straight, i thought you were one of the more meaningful folks.

re: your post:

1. as i remember from history, usdcad wasnt supposed to behave too well with TF. are you following it anyway, for any particular reason?

2. you would set your stop loss above the pivot line there or still limit yourself with 25 pips or so?

i am thinking that correlating trade performance with time spent in the position could be an interesting way to look at it. as in, how long does it take in average for a certain pair to reach certain profit levels.
  • #2,090
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:17am Sep 18, 2008 6:17am
hi all, i got a buy signal from aud/usd, 2 hours ago , however the signal appear when both aud and usd market were close. Should i go for it or should i not ?
(well, it went the right way, and i should have earned some pip if i entered the trade)

one more question, have anyone tried this system using pairs other than usd/jpy,usd/chf,eur/usd,usd/cad,aud/usd,eur/jpy, and does it work well ?


thx for sharing.
  • #2,091
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:22am Sep 18, 2008 6:22am
Quoting pilatus
This is kind of signal we should look for. Why?? Coz, guppy are contracted, that means begining of a new move or trend. Next, price was steady for some time before signal occur. Stop loss is small. ABout 20-25 pips and risk reward ratio is more than 1:1... Everything else this WEEK is too risky to enter and stop loss is too big.
After enter we need to be patient. That is all.

nice one, did you take the gbp/usd yesterday? both of them? it looks contracted and very nice setup.
  • #2,092
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:22am Sep 18, 2008 6:22am
as a sidenote, i am setting up development of a thorough information system for tracking these trading results.
  • #2,093
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:29am Sep 18, 2008 6:29am
Quoting grillz
hi pilatus, good to see you postin again after a while. after reading through the whole thread for 2 days straight, i thought you were one of the more meaningful folks.

re: your post:

1. as i remember from history, usdcad wasnt supposed to behave too well with TF. are you following it anyway, for any particular reason?

2. you would set your stop loss above the pivot line there or still limit yourself with 25 pips or so?

i am thinking that correlating trade performance with time spent in the position could be an interesting way to look at it. as in, how long does it take in average for a certain pair to reach certain profit levels.
1. Right. Usd/cad is not one of the pair that produce good signals. BUT, I remember time when that pair produced good signals. This one I posted because is good example of good signal in handful signals that we had this week. Reason is, when you have nice trend which can be seen on higher time frame you have set od nice signals. When price is in range there are most of the time falls signals. Example look USD/CAD from 22.07.-11.08. 2008. where is nice bullish trend. You will find there good signals allmost every day.
2. I put stop loss 5 pips+spread bellow or above recent low of 30 candles. If that is more than 20-25 pips and if from some particluar reason dont want to miss that trade I put less lots in trade. I allways risk 1% of my account per trade.
Last thing you said I dont understand sorry.
  • #2,094
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:31am Sep 18, 2008 6:31am
Quoting HUnter123
nice one, did you take the gbp/usd yesterday? both of them? it looks contracted and very nice setup.
I dont trade this pair. But I saw that signal on GBP/JPY and this is kind of signal you should look for, but in the way of major trend. I mean, you can take a signal if is valid in counter trend but than you can not expect to take much pips. SO, if signal is in direction of trend relase the brakes, if it is not be ready to act.
  • #2,095
  • Sep 18, 2008 6:40am Sep 18, 2008 6:40am
Quoting rendiii
hi all, i got a buy signal from aud/usd, 2 hours ago , however the signal appear when both aud and usd market were close. Should i go for it or should i not ?
(well, it went the right way, and i should have earned some pip if i entered the trade)

one more question, have anyone tried this system using pairs other than usd/jpy,usd/chf,eur/usd,usd/cad,aud/usd,eur/jpy, and does it work well ?


thx for sharing.
Read first post of this thread. GBP/USD is good too. My opinion is that any pair could work good if it is trending.
  • #2,096
  • Sep 18, 2008 7:11am Sep 18, 2008 7:11am
i still dont understand why the guppy has to be contracted, the entire trend short eur/usd and gbp/usd the guppy was wide open but gave great trades.
guppy open means strong trade so why dont trade the trend instead of waiting for new move?
  • #2,097
  • Sep 18, 2008 8:59am Sep 18, 2008 8:59am
Quoting HUnter123
i still dont understand why the guppy has to be contracted, the entire trend short eur/usd and gbp/usd the guppy was wide open but gave great trades.
guppy open means strong trade so why dont trade the trend instead of waiting for new move?
When guppy are contracted you have chance to catch big move from it start. And you have better chances to be on right direction. But, you can trade when guppy are contracted if you want, but then look when price was steady for some time or when price retrace from some significant level before signal occur. That is riskier trade and you have less chance to catch more pips.Look EUR/USD yesterday evening signal for long. Nothing heppen than loss of 60-70 pips and then retrace back to +20 pips. I Dont think that is a good point of view. If there is developed trend than you have valid signals even guppy are expanded.
Dont forget that price like to retrace and if you enter in trade on expanded guppy you have better chance that price wolud go against you.
I think that it is better to enter on contracted guppy and wait for perfect signal than enter on every signal and loose 5 time in a row 20 pips.
  • #2,098
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:12am Sep 18, 2008 9:12am
Quoting pilatus
Dont forget that price like to retrace and if you enter in trade on expanded guppy you have better chance that price wolud go against you.
I think that it is better to enter on contracted guppy and wait for perfect signal than enter on every signal and loose 5 time in a row 20 pips.
hmm, you think it could be possible to create some patience rule out of this observation? perhaps you simply have to expand stop loss on expanded guppy? perhaps you must be prepared to have more patience than average when taking expanded guppy signal?

perhaps it is also best to just leave it alone, instead of trying to get all qualified signals to work for you.
  • #2,099
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:31am Sep 18, 2008 9:31am
Quoting grillz
hmm, you think it could be possible to create some patience rule out of this observation? perhaps you simply have to expand stop loss on expanded guppy? perhaps you must be prepared to have more patience than average when taking expanded guppy signal?

perhaps it is also best to just leave it alone, instead of trying to get all qualified signals to work for you.
I tried to test something to enter on every first signal no matter what direction and no matter guppy conditions are. Intentionally when market is in strong trend like EUR/USD last 2 months. Results were totaly acceptable but problem was with exit...when, how.??....
When trend is present there is no problem. Problem is when we have range. Then we dont have signals or they are falls.
But that was something you suggest-bigger stop loss and more patient. That should be well tested....But on the other side I am sure that Wicker tried every possibile choice to find best performance. Why do his job again.....
  • #2,100
  • Sep 18, 2008 9:32am Sep 18, 2008 9:32am
Quoting HUnter123
ok , here is the picture i didnt manage to attach yesterday. before the big move was another false signal as you can see and the big move occured very late in the us session , actually after trading hours for this system i believe. i dont trade this system live but im not sure after 2 false signals yesterday both eur/usd and gbp/usd i would have taken this one.
Tell me xactly where is ur false trades??
U think u can start make $$ once u r in t trade???
From the pic below is all ok,,,for LONG...u just need to wait...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1221731705
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