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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,001
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:33pm Sep 15, 2008 6:33pm
going to smaller TF allows you to lower SL pips, but do you also increase lotsize to match 3% per trade, or do you trade for less than 3%?
I have yet to watch Phil 5min Thread, even if i feel not so comfortable with so many indicators, i think i'll demo it more like 4hr system... if it doesn't work ofcourse i'll try to learn a new way
  • #17,002
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:41pm Sep 15, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting Palmer
When I see these ranges increasing I often (time permitting) start looking at Phillip's 5 minute method. Not necessarily to enter a 4hr signal on, but I've caught a few before as my buds saka and bshadroo have, but to specifically make trades on. Trades that I only have a 5 to 10 pip target.
I have been trying to use the 5 min system to catch some of the trends on the 4hr that were too quick by opening up 2 positions on the 5 min system. I close the 1st after 10-15 pips and leave the second position's SL so I would break even if it was hit. I've been mildly successful, but I wanted to know your experience with this because I believe you have tried to catch trends the same way. Any tid-bit of advice
Raymond
  • #17,003
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:36pm Sep 15, 2008 7:36pm
Quoting jennajameson
going to smaller TF allows you to lower SL pips, but do you also increase lotsize to match 3% per trade, or do you trade for less than 3%?
I have yet to watch Phil 5min Thread, even if i feel not so comfortable with so many indicators, i think i'll demo it more like 4hr system... if it doesn't work ofcourse i'll try to learn a new way
I usually keep the lot size the same (unless it is a very strong trend). the profit target is less, and keep it below 3% either way. I work full time and can't afford to get distracted with regualar lot sizes out there and the phone ringing, or someone walking in, etc... I posted a pdf in there somewhere in the thread (click on the paperclip icon to see all the posts) about how I use the ADX with the 5min. It's very similar how I use it with the 4hour method.

That thread has really evolved from Phillip's initial post. I don't use the SMAAngle. Just the mov. avgs and the adx...
  • #17,004
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:49pm Sep 15, 2008 7:49pm
Quoting Morelands
I have been trying to use the 5 min system to catch some of the trends on the 4hr that were too quick by opening up 2 positions on the 5 min system. I close the 1st after 10-15 pips and leave the second position's SL so I would break even if it was hit. I've been mildly successful, but I wanted to know your experience with this because I believe you have tried to catch trends the same way. Any tid-bit of advice
Raymond
Raymond:

If there was a high probability set up on the 4hr such as a TC on the 21 along with me watching the ADX on the 1hr annnnd keeping an eye on the 5min when all of this is happening, that's the kicker. Narrowing everything down to a high probability trade, from the 4hr to the 1hr to the 5min. You already know what is supposed to happen. If I, or you, go in with 3 positions, on the 4hr, I may go in with 2 of the same lot sizes on the 5min and break up the 3rd position into 3 smaller lots. The profit targets are smaller for the 2 same lot sizes on the 5min but larger for the other 3 sub lot sizes (from the 1 remaining lot). If that position turns out to be THE entry even on the 4hr, that's getting in way early and if the price bar on the 4hr has a range of 100 pips and your in with 3 positions, even mini's, and it runs 100 on the first bar back in the direction of the TC...This could last for a few day$. The high leverage of the first two lots (given those are winners) can be used to widen the stop on those three smaller lots if needed. I'm really stingy with pips that are banked.

Wait for the high probability TC on the 4hr, keep an eye on the ADX on the 1hr (even before the -DM/+DM cross but 'heading that way') and then look for the signal on the 5min. It's all a matter of everything lining up correctly, and being able to actually watch all of this of course. I haven't had the time to do this lately but when I do, this is pretty much it...
  • #17,005
  • Edited 2:22am Sep 16, 2008 1:01am | Edited 2:22am
this is my entry with the smaller TF,after H1 TL broken .i'll post the exact entry point in M5 thread
edit:firt one :+25pips, second: BE
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  • #17,006
  • Sep 16, 2008 2:57am Sep 16, 2008 2:57am
Hi!

I just wanted to warn you, that as you know today is FED decision and as I see the consesus is unchanged for the rate, but if you take a look at the bond market you can see that the market is pricing a rate cut.. And my opinion is that the FED is lagging behind the market and it tries to hold it, so I wouldn't be surprised if they cut by 50 bp.
  • #17,007
  • Sep 16, 2008 4:28am Sep 16, 2008 4:28am
Quoting jennajameson
going to smaller TF allows you to lower SL pips, but do you also increase lotsize to match 3% per trade, or do you trade for less than 3%?
I have yet to watch Phil 5min Thread, even if i feel not so comfortable with so many indicators, i think i'll demo it more like 4hr system... if it doesn't work ofcourse i'll try to learn a new way
Hi,

Phils 5 min thread? Does he have another thread for 5 min trading also?

Thanks
  • #17,008
  • Sep 16, 2008 5:29am Sep 16, 2008 5:29am
Quoting pubber
Hi,

Phils 5 min thread? Does he have another thread for 5 min trading also?

Thanks
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20469&posted=1
  • #17,009
  • Sep 16, 2008 6:32am Sep 16, 2008 6:32am
Thanks for your post. I got the things going now and I know how to move the attachments to my metatrader. I am currently going through Philip's 13 lessons. It is great to know that many people on this thread offer this information freely. My introduction to Forex systems did cost me money and funny enough here I have the opposite and ongoing support through all successful traders like you.
Many thanks. Jideck
  • #17,010
  • Sep 16, 2008 8:05am Sep 16, 2008 8:05am
Quoting Gabor
Hi!

I just wanted to warn you, that as you know today is FED decision and as I see the consesus is unchanged for the rate, but if you take a look at the bond market you can see that the market is pricing a rate cut.. And my opinion is that the FED is lagging behind the market and it tries to hold it, so I wouldn't be surprised if they cut by 50 bp.
Thanks for the insight Gabor. This is going to be interesting today to see what happens with all of the current turmoil going on....
  • #17,011
  • Edited 12:32pm Sep 16, 2008 12:30pm | Edited 12:32pm
I am trying to get in motion with the system, and 4h tradestyle, and just wanted to ask people who trade this way how do they get the reminder to look at the chart every 4 hours...
What do you use? an alarmclock? an analog one?

and is it better to come to the screen every 4 hour, stay there for 1 hour just to get the feeling on next 1h candle, then go away for 3 hours, then come back to check out how's going?

or do you stay at the pc just when you have time, and catch the trades the market gives to you?

and for 5min trading, do you get to 5 min chart in the meantime that 1h candle is forming (so is twelve 5min bar formed and checked every 4 hours?)

This is just to know the Rythm of the Trader, not the market, not this time
  • #17,012
  • Sep 16, 2008 12:58pm Sep 16, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting Gabor
Hi!

I just wanted to warn you, that as you know today is FED decision and as I see the consesus is unchanged for the rate, but if you take a look at the bond market you can see that the market is pricing a rate cut.. And my opinion is that the FED is lagging behind the market and it tries to hold it, so I wouldn't be surprised if they cut by 50 bp.
I second that
  • #17,013
  • Sep 16, 2008 1:02pm Sep 16, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting jennajameson
I am trying to get in motion with the system, and 4h tradestyle, and just wanted to ask people who trade this way how do they get the reminder to look at the chart every 4 hours...
What do you use? an alarmclock? an analog one?

and is it better to come to the screen every 4 hour, stay there for 1 hour just to get the feeling on next 1h candle, then go away for 3 hours, then come back to check out how's going?

or do you stay at the pc just when you have time, and catch the trades the market gives to you?

and for 5min trading, do you get to 5 min chart in the meantime that 1h candle is forming (so is twelve 5min bar formed and checked every 4 hours?)

This is just to know the Rythm of the Trader, not the market, not this time
jj: There are times when you can look at the chart and see that the rhythm just isn't ther. If all 5 of the moving averages are within, say 150 pips of each other, the market is really flat. This can take a few days to clear up. If the market is trending well, the rhythm is strong, and I glance at a 4hr chart and see where price is in relation to the 8 and 21, I get a visual pciture of what the price needs to do before a trade is entered. If the market is heading down and price is, say 50 pips below the 8, there's no trade there. Even to come back to the 21 I'm thinking that would be a major move back up. One bar won't do that unless it's a news spike or some other even. So, my 'mental picture, tells me that we need several candles to come back to the 21. That can be an entire day or two to happen. The trend has to be threre first, then it's a matter of how much price needs to move to a certain area. Addtionally, s/r lines, channels, come into play as well so you need a mental note of how far those are away to. You won't always be in the market with this method. It could be days or even a week or so before a high probability trade shows up. The s/r lines, channels, pivots, etc. are extra variables that need to be, hmm...'tamed' to meld with the rhythm as far as entries go.


The 5min can be seperate beast all it's own becuase that entire 5min trend can be within one 1 hour candle and your done. That takes a very disciplined mental attitude to get down. But it's the same vision, only trade the 5min with am established trend also. This could take a few hours to develope too.
  • #17,014
  • Sep 16, 2008 1:18pm Sep 16, 2008 1:18pm
thx pal, get the whole picture, ofcourse, if i can add, if you are watching 3 pairs, combining future price levels of the pairs, that could require you to be more "present" in front of the screen...
  • #17,015
  • Edited Sep 17, 2008 5:31am Sep 16, 2008 5:35pm | Edited Sep 17, 2008 5:31am
Just a post to let you know another way to backtest this strategy with a simulator.

I've done thread search for "simulator" and i found vhands one, but having seen this one at work i can say that is better in many ways...

First: you don't have a preselected list of values for trading, you can put whatever lotsize and SL and TP you want. the only thing it doesn't do is TrailingStop, but you can move the stops by hand by yourself...
and of course you can't change timeframes to finetune an entry, but just for gross reference, is better than backtesting...

the only thing is that is listed on another forum, i give them credits, the post is this one:
http://www.fxfisherman.com/forums/fo...trading.html?=

i am putting the files here, to avoid registration issues... the installer is useless, it just installs a client of MT4... so here are the essential files only

ps. i think would be interesting for the beginner, to do the exact same weeks as the wrapups, and then side by side examine the results and decision taken, then rinse and repeat!


EDIT: 109 views on the files, how's that going?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Trade_Simulator_setup.pdf   376 KB | 1,248 downloads
File Type: zip Trade_Simulator_Files.zip   37 KB | 662 downloads
  • #17,016
  • Sep 17, 2008 2:35am Sep 17, 2008 2:35am
Does anyone who has compiled Phillp's weekly warup ,downmove trade, breakout trade and gap trade at post 1131
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #17,017
  • Sep 17, 2008 5:06am Sep 17, 2008 5:06am
Quoting hijackxx
Lemme start with my analysis for this week's TC possibility.

EURO:

Cable:
Too bad none of my plan worked out after 20:00 candle closed. I guess that is it for the month.. Happy hunting everyone See you all next month
  • #17,018
  • Sep 17, 2008 7:22am Sep 17, 2008 7:22am
Haven't seen it yet saka.

The four majors have mixed signals right now. The Yen looks like it might be trying to return to the downside but still no clear signal. Until later....
  • #17,019
  • Sep 17, 2008 7:52am Sep 17, 2008 7:52am
i should record a loss today ,every thing looked good for an upmove acording to the market rhythm but....
can u people help me where i was wrong?
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  • #17,020
  • Sep 17, 2008 8:31am Sep 17, 2008 8:31am
Quoting bshadroo
i should record a loss today ,every thing looked good for an upmove acording to the market rhythm but....
can u people help me where i was wrong?
I am very new to Phillips strategy, so I am sure someone more experienced will be able to give you a more definitive answer.

However, your chart is hourly and if you look at the 4 hour chart there is no signal. My understanding is that moving to the hourly chart should only be done to get an earlier entry if the 4 hour is shaping up. Now I am probably incorrect on that as I have yet to read and study the hourly information that Palmer has put on his website.

Also, going long here is a countertrend trade to the direction on the 4 hour.

One final thing I notice is that there is a confluence of MA's - 21, 89 and 200 going on which to my eye is making the price very choppy.

All in all, I don't think your trade was high probability.

Looking forward to others analysis.
James The Beekeeper
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