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  • #661
  • Sep 15, 2008 10:33am Sep 15, 2008 10:33am
Quoting grAgol4
Just a word of caution about what's going on in the markets. If you are trading technicals only, I would be very careful. The central banks are injecting a lot of cash to prevent a system-wide collapse so things might get crazy for a while.
If there is harmony, there's harmony, Fibs will be respected accordingly regardless of injection of cash, intervention of banks etc.

I would only advise not to trade for only one reason, mouteki's systems is not yet complete, we are still waiting to see entry, exit, fundamental and volume but not due to bank intervention.
  • #662
  • Sep 15, 2008 11:00am Sep 15, 2008 11:00am
Quoting Hwd
If there is harmony, there's harmony, Fibs will be respected accordingly regardless of injection of cash, intervention of banks etc. . . .
I would even go further to state that central bank interventions, if they actually are happening, constitute some of the very fundamentals that tend to turn the market at fib retracements and fib zones. Who knows why the fibonacci sequences work in the market? I don't know. I don't imagine anyone else does, either. All that we do know is that they do seem to work. But the turns in the market at fib retracements and fib zones don't happen magically all by themselves. They are driven by the fundamentals, of which central bank intervention is one.

Still, I would be very interested in reading some news reports of these supposed central bank interventions. I haven't seen or heard any news stories to the effect that any central banks anywhere in the world are intervening because there is a "system wide collapse" imminent. Has anyone else heard of this going on? If so, can you point me to whatever news source you got it from?

Thanks.
  • #663
  • Sep 15, 2008 11:26am Sep 15, 2008 11:26am
Quoting Tommy_C
I would even go further to state that central bank interventions, if they actually are happening, constitute some of the very fundamentals that tend to turn the market at fib retracements and fib zones. Who knows why the fibonacci sequences work in the market? I don't know. I don't imagine anyone else does, either. All that we do know is that they do seem to work. But the turns in the market at fib retracements and fib zones don't happen magically all by themselves. They are driven by the fundamentals, of which central bank intervention is one.

Still, I would be very interested in reading some news reports of these supposed central bank interventions. I haven't seen or heard any news stories to the effect that any central banks anywhere in the world are intervening because there is a "system wide collapse" imminent. Has anyone else heard of this going on? If so, can you point me to whatever news source you got it from?

Thanks.
Another huge bank declared bankruptcy overnight - Lehman Brothers - (with the Fed saying that they will not help them) so it was anticipated that huge selling of USD would take place. Stocks would plummet at the opening bell on Wall St. so i guess that would be the reason for injection of cash.

You see, they have done this many times before but it can only hold the market for so long. People like you and I - speculators - throughout the world vastly outnumber or in other words have more volume in the market (when combined) than any bank can have so WE my friend drive the market. An intervention will work for a short time afterwards our sentiment takes over and drives the market accordingly.
  • #664
  • Sep 15, 2008 11:49am Sep 15, 2008 11:49am
Quoting Hwd
If there is harmony, there's harmony, Fibs will be respected accordingly regardless of injection of cash, intervention of banks etc.

I would only advise not to trade for only one reason, mouteki's systems is not yet complete, we are still waiting to see entry, exit, fundamental and volume but not due to bank intervention.
CBs can (and DO) drive (or rather "correct" the market), but to a certain degree. Have a look at how long a typical "correction" following interest rate decision usually lasts...

It's the big (HUGE) banks and big (HUGE) hedge funds that drive the market, not individual traders. We can only "ride the wave" (if we are lucky to spot and join in).

As for the trading methods, hopefully Mouteki will share his strategy, but it doesn't really matter - his Fibo system provided a good map of general market moves (cycles, "breaths"). That helps us to understand where we are right now (even if you don't "buy" Fibo 100%, it's (much) better than not having any clue... ) Then it's up to each individual trader to find a trading method to suit his/her style.

Have a close (!) look at the charts near the Fibs zones - most reversals/strong continuations were "indicated" via price action (PA) - such as pinbars (PB), inside bars (IB), outside bars (OB). That's the way to go... Visit James16 thread, all the answers are there.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #665
  • Sep 15, 2008 11:50am Sep 15, 2008 11:50am
Quoting Tommy_C
I would even go further to state that central bank interventions, if they actually are happening, constitute some of the very fundamentals that tend to turn the market at fib retracements and fib zones. Who knows why the fibonacci sequences work in the market? I don't know. I don't imagine anyone else does, either. All that we do know is that they do seem to work. But the turns in the market at fib retracements and fib zones don't happen magically all by themselves. They are driven by the fundamentals, of which central bank intervention is one.

Still, I would be very interested in reading some news reports of these supposed central bank interventions. I haven't seen or heard any news stories to the effect that any central banks anywhere in the world are intervening because there is a "system wide collapse" imminent. Has anyone else heard of this going on? If so, can you point me to whatever news source you got it from?

Thanks.
Here is a link in which you can read about the central bank intervention.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7617166.stm
  • #666
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:04pm Sep 15, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Hwd
Another huge bank declared bankruptcy overnight - Lehman Brothers - (with the Fed saying that they will not help them) so it was anticipated that huge selling of USD would take place. Stocks would plummet at the opening bell on Wall St. so i guess that would be the reason for injection of cash.

You see, they have done this many times before but it can only hold the market for so long. People like you and I - speculators - throughout the world vastly outnumber or in other words have more volume in the market (when combined) than any bank can have so WE my friend drive the market. An intervention will work for a short time afterwards our sentiment takes over and drives the market accordingly.
Well I would think that if the news for the US dollar was going to be horrible, and the price of the dollar was expected to fall through the floor, then the only way the Federal Reserve could prop up the dollar would be to BUY dollars in the currency market (to reduce supply, increase demand, and raise the price), rather than sell them (increase supply & reduce price). That's why I seriously doubt that there really is/are any central bank interventions going on anywhere right now. Large infusions of dollars into the currency market by the Federal Reserve would only drive the price of the dollar down, not up. That's not what you do when you're worried about the strength of your currency.

But that's just my opinion. I am a skeptic at heart. I am happy to be proven wrong, however. If anyone can point to a news story saying that any major central banks are intervening in the currency market I'd love to read them.
  • #667
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:36pm Sep 15, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting Fx Pipin
Here is a link in which you can read about the central bank intervention.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7617166.stm
Okay, that article makes sense. If the news for the dollar is horrible, then the USD will fall dramatically and the EUR will shoot up. This will hurt Europe because they thrive on exports, primarily to the US. So selling a lot of Euros will help keep the Euro relatively cheaper against the dollar than it otherwise would be.

Thanks for posting that link.
  • #668
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:59pm Sep 15, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Well I would think that if the news for the US dollar was going to be horrible, and the price of the dollar was expected to fall through the floor, then the only way the Federal Reserve could prop up the dollar would be to BUY dollars in the currency market (to reduce supply, increase demand, and raise the price), rather than sell them (increase supply & reduce price). That's why I seriously doubt that there really is/are any central bank interventions going on anywhere right now. Large infusions of dollars into the currency market by the Federal Reserve would only drive the price of the dollar down, not up. That's not what you do when you're worried about the strength of your currency.

But that's just my opinion. I am a skeptic at heart. I am happy to be proven wrong, however. If anyone can point to a news story saying that any major central banks are intervening in the currency market I'd love to read them.
Here is an interesting article about the movements over the last month and CB intervention

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9431...k-intervention
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #669
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:08pm Sep 15, 2008 1:08pm
Interest rate cuts for tomorrow. Can't wait to see the affect on the market using Mouteki methods with respect to Fibs.
  • #670
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:08pm Sep 15, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting copi88
Here is an interesting article about the movements over the last month and CB intervention

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9431...k-intervention
Yeah, absolutely. Here's a quote from it that supports my original idea:

Quote
In March, a group of central banks planned a huge and coordinated currency intervention to buy dollars, in the world currency markets, to support the U.S. dollar. They have now started to act on their plans. To kick off the dollar intervention, the U.S. Exchange rate stabilization fund [ESF] sold about 6 billion euros in late June. Where did the euros go? In my opinion, they were placed with three primary dealer banks, for the purpose of buying dollar derivatives.

Whatever kind of central bank interventions that there have been, it seems like it been a lot of foreign countries (Europe and China) selling a lot of their own currencies and buy the dollar in an effort to prop the dollar up.

I guess the whole world still needs a stable and strong dollar.
  • #671
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:10pm Sep 15, 2008 1:10pm
Interventions are temporary and never work in the long run. The only reason I brought it up is that we are experiencing a very unusual time in the markets. This is only the beginning of the bank failures. Info on what they are doing can be found by going to the fed's site and looking up "Exchange Stabilization Fund" and looking at the reserve position.
  • #672
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:00pm Sep 15, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting Tommy_C
I would even go further to state that central bank interventions, if they actually are happening, constitute some of the very fundamentals that tend to turn the market at fib retracements and fib zones. Who knows why the fibonacci sequences work in the market? I don't know. I don't imagine anyone else does, either. All that we do know is that they do seem to work. But the turns in the market at fib retracements and fib zones don't happen magically all by themselves. They are driven by the fundamentals, of which central bank intervention is one.

Still, I would be very interested in reading some news reports of these supposed central bank interventions. I haven't seen or heard any news stories to the effect that any central banks anywhere in the world are intervening because there is a "system wide collapse" imminent. Has anyone else heard of this going on? If so, can you point me to whatever news source you got it from?

Thanks.

Agreed Tommy,
I myself am getting very interested at this stage in my trading to study this.I have learned every indicator and candlestick pattern,price patterns,and so on inside and out.I am yet to get a grasp on the fundies.This is my next conquest,and what great timing in this thread to learn.Gragol4 you are right with this is just the begining.There is really some bad things coming,we have just seen the tip of the iceburg so to speak!Good trading to you all!
  • #673
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:57pm Sep 15, 2008 4:57pm
correct me if I'm wrong , but I think Mouteki's target was acomplished in the cad\jpy...I'm really looking forward for the next videos , specially the one about volumes .
  • #674
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:32pm Sep 15, 2008 5:32pm
Quoting Barak's pip
correct me if I'm wrong , but I think Mouteki's target was acomplished in the cad\jpy...I'm really looking forward for the next videos , specially the one about volumes .

Yes it made it,
There really is something to these fib sequences.After you set them on your chart..take a look back in past price action,They obey quite well to S&R.The big guys like these zones,so follow.
  • #675
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:37pm Sep 15, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting jlmac27
Yes it made it,
There really is something to these fib sequences.After you set them on your chart..take a look back in past price action,They obey quite well to S&R.The big guys like these zones,so follow.
yes , it works ... this is the second time (nzd\chf , cad\jpy) , the only qeustion left is how do I apply it on every day trading , meaning - how do I know when a pair is done retracing and is going back on track , so I can make money out of it ..

this is why I am looking forward for the next videos ..
  • #676
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:57pm Sep 15, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting Barak's pip
yes , it works ... this is the second time (nzd\chf , cad\jpy) , the only qeustion left is how do I apply it on every day trading , meaning - how do I know when a pair is done retracing and is going back on track , so I can make money out of it ..

this is why I am looking forward for the next videos ..

Hello,
Well Barak that is the quit your day job, million dollar question!But.......this fib map alone is a great tool.Add fundamentals to it and I don't see how anyone could lose.I watch price action at these levels.candlesticks are powerful in themselfs,use them.Like I said in an earlier post I have always tried to stick with technical analiysis,I find fundies boring.......but I know they are part of it,and that is a good deal of why my trading has suffered.I am truly amazed how well these fib sequences have price obey them.I know mouketi is going to fill us in on how he sets up his trades,I am excited to learn from him he is a great teacher as well as a great person!
  • #677
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:18pm Sep 15, 2008 6:18pm
Quoting Forex007
CBs can (and DO) drive (or rather "correct" the market), but to a certain degree. Have a look at how long a typical "correction" following interest rate decision usually lasts...

It's the big (HUGE) banks and big (HUGE) hedge funds that drive the market, not individual traders. We can only "ride the wave" (if we are lucky to spot and join in).

As for the trading methods, hopefully Mouteki will share his strategy, but it doesn't really matter - his Fibo system provided a good map of general market moves (cycles, "breaths"). That helps us to understand where we are right now (even if you don't "buy" Fibo 100%, it's (much) better than not having any clue... ) Then it's up to each individual trader to find a trading method to suit his/her style.

Have a close (!) look at the charts near the Fibs zones - most reversals/strong continuations were "indicated" via price action (PA) - such as pinbars (PB), inside bars (IB), outside bars (OB). That's the way to go... Visit James16 thread, all the answers are there.
I disagree to some extent. We drive the market not banks. The banks do their intervention and HOPE we the SPECULATORS, follow in. So even though they may spark a move WE are the ones that have to follow to subsequently move the market in the direction THEY (the banks) hope.

It lies with the speculators, FOREX is too HUGE for banks to even begin to conceive moving the market extensively. Their hope is to get the speculators market sentiment in line with them and that is when the market moves. However, they are successful at this sometimes and unsuccessful sometimes.

Thanks for the input.
  • #678
  • Sep 15, 2008 10:19pm Sep 15, 2008 10:19pm
Dear Mouteki,


CONGRATULATIONS!!!


CAD/JPY AND NZD/CHF HAVE ALL DONE AS YOU EXPECTED!!!
  • #679
  • Sep 16, 2008 3:18am Sep 16, 2008 3:18am
If someone analysed the latest H1 E/U chart:

Are we now heading down (having "taken out" 610 from the prev. move up), or are we still moving up (and are just getting ready for 987)?
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #680
  • Sep 16, 2008 3:39am Sep 16, 2008 3:39am
Quoting Forex007
If someone analysed the latest H1 E/U chart:

Are we now heading down (having "taken out" 610 from the prev. move up), or are we still moving up (and are just getting ready for 987)?
Since it miss the 610 fib zone in the previous up move but the retracement respect the 61.8 fib level, I think it will go back up toward and take out 610 this time and heading toward 987.

Watching it closely now but not trading due to news tonight.
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