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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #861
  • Feb 19, 2007 6:19am Feb 19, 2007 6:19am
Quoting putratrg
EUR has make lower high but need to wait an hour more for candle to close

But 21ema is too close nearby, might not worth it. any advice?
I am a newbie and my opinion is:

1. EU is against trend. If short then PT is at 21EMA = 1.3116
2. SL is way up, possibly at TL 1.3173.
3. R:R is not good.
4. I prefer to wait for Trend Continuation.

Ant comments?
  • #862
  • Feb 19, 2007 6:52am Feb 19, 2007 6:52am
Hi,

Have been following this method for a while, especially latley.

As stated above, I think we have a sell in EUR/USD now, and it will start its journey down within 30 min...???

Any thoughts on this?

Regards
  • #863
  • Feb 19, 2007 6:53am Feb 19, 2007 6:53am
Hey All,

I don t think I could make a decision right now, could anyone else.

Jim
  • #864
  • Feb 19, 2007 7:01am Feb 19, 2007 7:01am
Quoting fnmdx
I am a newbie and my opinion is:

1. EU is against trend. If short then PT is at 21EMA = 1.3116
2. SL is way up, possibly at TL 1.3173.
3. R:R is not good.
4. I prefer to wait for Trend Continuation.

Ant comments?
yup, totally agree with you, R:R is not convincing enough. wait for another candle is safer
  • #865
  • Edited 7:08am Feb 19, 2007 7:03am | Edited 7:08am
wait until the close of this candle (9:00 EST) and that should be the deciding candle.

Im still saying short

Eurusd failed to make a higher high and is forming a double top, plus the MACD says sell as it starts to curve to the down side, and there is a ton of resistance sitting not to far above this price

the selling pressure has begun
  • #866
  • Feb 19, 2007 7:33am Feb 19, 2007 7:33am
Quoting superdezign
wait until the close of this candle (9:00 EST) and that should be the deciding candle.
My candle will close at 2400hrs (IBFx), am I too late to open short by 2400?
  • #867
  • Feb 19, 2007 7:56am Feb 19, 2007 7:56am
I don't think it would be advisable to take fresh positions today it is a US holiday and you might get false signals, which might contradict itself tommorrow
  • #868
  • Edited 8:12am Feb 19, 2007 7:58am | Edited 8:12am
Hey Super,

I'm hoping you can help me out here. I agree, there is a great amount of resistance above the eur/usd, but we have also just seen another retrace to the 21EMA, and a bounce back (although not a huge one, and only made it back to the 8ema). By the normal rules, that is still a possible continuation pattern. The ema's are still flat, and may continue to be for awhile with holiday in place. So, I'm not sure when the sell signal will come, but I would still be waiting after this candle close.

Also, the sell signal came a few candles back on the MACD and it retraced to the 21 EMA as we would have expected. Can you clue me in a bit more?

Always learning... Thanks!

Edit: The gbp/usd may be finding support on trend line. 14:00 GMT


Quoting superdezign
wait until the close of this candle (9:00 EST) and that should be the deciding candle.

Im still saying short

Eurusd failed to make a higher high and is forming a double top, plus the MACD says sell as it starts to curve to the down side, and there is a ton of resistance sitting not to far above this price

the selling pressure has begun
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #869
  • Edited 8:21am Feb 19, 2007 8:07am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting kevmcfoster
I don't think it would be advisable to take fresh positions today it is a US holiday and you might get false signals, which might contradict itself tommorrow
US Equity and fixed income market are closed today, Forex trading is open but less volume expected

BTW I'm sleepy
  • #870
  • Feb 19, 2007 8:17am Feb 19, 2007 8:17am
There are a few reasons I decided to go short, see the attached file, that screen shot was taken a few days ago. will history repeat itself?

Quoting DireXiv
Hey Super,

I'm hoping you can help me out here. I agree, there is a great amount of resistance above the eur/usd, but we have also just seen another retrace to the 21EMA, and a bounce back (although not a huge one, and only made it back to the 8ema). By the normal rules, that is still a possible continuation pattern. The ema's are still flat, and may continue to be for awhile with holiday in place. So, I'm not sure when the sell signal will come, but I would still be waiting after this candle close.

Also, the sell signal came a few candles back on the MACD and it retraced to the 21 EMA as we would have expected. Can you clue me in a bit more?

Always learning... Thanks!

Edit: The gbp/usd may be finding support on trend line. 14:00 GMT
Attached Image
  • #871
  • Feb 19, 2007 9:40am Feb 19, 2007 9:40am
Eur
Did find resistance against the trendline. 8:00 Candle gave short signal with 20-25 pips to gain to 21EMA with relative low stoploss of 15-20 pips. Came back to the 21EMA. Moved away upwards. I stayed on the side line.
If you were waiting for a short the 8:00(GMT) candle was the one and set stoploss to breakeven after 20+ gain and give yourself the chance should it comes down futher.


Gbp
I was sort of expecting a going through zero and then a pullback by the MACD but the signal candle were to big. Would not have entered.

Not a nice day at all.

Wait for further signals by MACD
Attached Image
  • #872
  • Feb 19, 2007 10:09am Feb 19, 2007 10:09am
Thanks a lot Phil, really appreciate your effort
  • #873
  • Feb 19, 2007 11:08am Feb 19, 2007 11:08am
Hey all,

From what I'm seeing, I get the "sense" that we'll see a break of the TL upwards in the Eur/usd. The gap and the slow day I believe has given us some bad signals or at the very least confusing signals. The aud/usd, has now gone back to pierce above it's trend line again, and the Eur/USD is going to most likely give a trend continuation signal at next candle close that I believe will continue to pierce the TL. What do I base this on?

(without taking into account the gap signals we have gotten)
-THe eur/usd daily gave spinning tops the past two days at the top of the TL which is indecisive.
-Even though we're at the top of the TL it has essentially been hit twice very recently, and looks to be going for a third as we may the the trend continuation with a bounce off the retrace to the 21 ema.
-the gap itself by it's inherent nature tends to show us the direction of trend after it fills itself.
-The gbp/usd just had a major bounce off the lower TL, and has gone up dramatically since, and I believe will also continue if it can break past the 365, also showed a double bottom on Macd.
-the aud/usd has pierced the TL for a second time int eh past two trading days,and looks like it will also get trend continuation at end of next candle. This pair seems to be following pretty closely to the eur/usd.

Just my thoughts for the moment as I'll wait for the signals to clear up as I believe the asian/london sessions coming will show us all. Have to get back to work now

comments?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #874
  • Feb 19, 2007 11:21am Feb 19, 2007 11:21am
Guys and Gals,

EURO long & Swissy short to confirm. Any takers.

Jim
  • #875
  • Feb 19, 2007 11:39am Feb 19, 2007 11:39am
Quoting hard1head1
Guys and Gals,

EURO long & Swissy short to confirm. Any takers.

Jim
Hi Jim,

17;34 GMT.
USD/CHF

What about the end of the trend (Two parallel trend lines Phillip drawn while showing the Rythm).
I see USD/CHF touched the lower channel line. It is possible no more down-going. I would not jump in short. (Is it time for trend change?). When in doubt, stay out.
-Chandra.
  • #876
  • Feb 19, 2007 11:52am Feb 19, 2007 11:52am
Quoting hard1head1
Guys and Gals,

EURO long & Swissy short to confirm. Any takers.

Jim
17:41 GMT.
EUR/USD

16:00 - 20:00 GMT candle is not yet completed to confirm 'Trend continues' signal (also, the uptrend move beofore this latest candle was not a great up trend move either - I do't know whetehr Phillip endorses this observationhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif)

89 MA has already crossed above 200MA. Good sign for a long, but only after the price breaks up the trend line above it.

See the Tail formation three candles back and 14 candles back!!
Phillip, were 'THOSE GUYS' already there?)

Please comment.
-Chandra
  • #877
  • Feb 19, 2007 12:07pm Feb 19, 2007 12:07pm
I rest my case.

Jim
  • #878
  • Feb 19, 2007 12:24pm Feb 19, 2007 12:24pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Some info
Hi Philip, I don't know if it is only problem with my computer, but there seems to be pretty much background noise in this one.. The others worked for me fine, maybe someone can confirm ?
Thanks,
Endy
  • #879
  • Feb 19, 2007 12:26pm Feb 19, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Some info

Eur

I dont trade breakouts even if I have a feeling that it is going to be and even if it happened. I wait for the MACD to give confirmation. It is only the motion and emotion that gives me the feeling of a breakout. Tecnically it is not on the cards yet.
Sorry Phillip could't hear your Mp3. Your private jet was making to much noise. LOL

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #880
  • Feb 19, 2007 12:29pm Feb 19, 2007 12:29pm
Quoting endy
Hi Philip, I don't know if it is only problem with my computer, but there seems to be pretty much background noise in this one.. The others worked for me fine, maybe someone can confirm ?
Thanks,
Endy

me too !

Ty
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