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  • #3,561
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:03am Sep 15, 2008 3:03am
pls why is this thread boring on a good monday which has less news and good for hunting S/R .......pls BRV and company im geting a lil bit dull not having you guys around. this is my first hit for 2day...EUR/ USD 24 pips up
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Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #3,562
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:08am Sep 15, 2008 3:08am
check usdjpy bounce off 104.95 level
  • #3,563
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:57am Sep 15, 2008 3:57am
BTW..what S&R does the chart is using??

Sonic

http://www.forexindo.com/forum/image...db8ddd1593.gif
  • #3,564
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:04am Sep 15, 2008 4:04am
Quoting hyh
check usdjpy bounce off 104.95 level
is it bounce up or down ?
  • #3,565
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:10am Sep 15, 2008 4:10am
Hi sonic, I didnt use any indicators, all Support n Resistence is plotted manually.

Quoting sonicdeejay
BTW..what S&R does the chart is using??

Sonic

http://www.forexindo.com/forum/image...db8ddd1593.gif
  • #3,566
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:57am Sep 15, 2008 4:57am
Possible Dollar Loonie short trade.

Wouldn't of posted it except for the 61.8 fib hitting almost exactly the same spot

James
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  • #3,567
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:21am Sep 15, 2008 5:21am
Hi pecs200, great analysis you got, but in this system do you wait for any confirmation pattern (such as candlestick ) to occur or you will just put a sell limit on the 61.8 fibs?

Quoting Pecs200
Possible Dollar Loonie short trade.

Wouldn't of posted it except for the 61.8 fib hitting almost exactly the same spot

James
  • #3,568
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:30am Sep 15, 2008 5:30am
Firstly, I want to state that I am far from being an expert, please make your own decisions when looking at my charts.

In answer to your question, normally I would probably wait and see closer to the time, however I am interested in the fact that the U/C seems to have hit a brick wall at the .50 fib on my chart. This gives me a little confirmation that the fib is being watched so I will probably set an order to sell around the 61.8 fib/S&R line (if the price gets that far)

James
  • #3,569
  • Sep 15, 2008 5:55am Sep 15, 2008 5:55am
hot knife and butter come to mind
  • #3,570
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:10am Sep 15, 2008 6:10am
terunaku since usdjpy trend is down bounce means upward correction move, i use 30 pips tps for such things with wide (~50 pips) sls since current market is used to have strong momentum
  • #3,571
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:34am Sep 15, 2008 6:34am
Does anyone know why the market blasted through some levels across several pairs I dont see any news?
  • #3,572
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:47am Sep 15, 2008 6:47am
Quoting Pecs200
hot knife and butter come to mind

I wouldn't say it was a bad trade, although it didn't hold at the exact spot, it has at least stalled out, and if your stop was not too prohibitive then you could still have got some profits out. The concept of using a standard 40 pip stop I think needs to be considered carefully by the trader - for simplicity it is ideal, but realistically is a one-size fits all policy going to produce the optimum results for each pair and in all market conditions? I think it is unlikely to be the case. A volatility based stop is surely the way forward, or placing a stop behind a further support/resistance point, as long as the R:R potential is good (if you're going against the trend and just looking to scalp out 20 pips or so and the next resistance is 120 pips away then it's probably not worth it). I remember reading a trader here saying they used a 20 pip standard stop - this would definitely effect the success percentage as in my experience the support/resistance is often overshot by this amount before coming back into profit. It should be the job of the trader to make money when they are right and reduce their risk when they are wrong.
  • #3,573
  • Sep 15, 2008 6:50am Sep 15, 2008 6:50am
Quoting Someone
Does anyone know why the market blasted through some levels across several pairs I dont see any news?

Plunging Oil= $92 ??
Lehman Bros....??

Sonic
  • #3,574
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:19am Sep 15, 2008 7:19am
Quoting birdt
I wouldn't say it was a bad trade, although it didn't hold at the exact spot, it has at least stalled out, and if your stop was not too prohibitive then you could still have got some profits out. The concept of using a standard 40 pip stop I think needs to be considered carefully by the trader - for simplicity it is ideal, but realistically is a one-size fits all policy going to produce the optimum results for each pair and in all market conditions? I think it is unlikely to be the case. A volatility based stop is surely the way forward, or placing a stop behind a further support/resistance point, as long as the R:R potential is good (if you're going against the trend and just looking to scalp out 20 pips or so and the next resistance is 120 pips away then it's probably not worth it). I remember reading a trader here saying they used a 20 pip standard stop - this would definitely effect the success percentage as in my experience the support/resistance is often overshot by this amount before coming back into profit. It should be the job of the trader to make money when they are right and reduce their risk when they are wrong.

Thanks Birdt, I appreciate your input as I still have a lot to learn.

Whats your take on the support at 1.4041-55 on E/U? The next support (1.3975) is way too far down to use as a stop loss. Also, we are seeing an 80pip retracement after hitting 1.4080. Would that invalidate the trade at 1.4055 in your opinion?
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  • #3,575
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:44am Sep 15, 2008 7:44am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Plunging Oil= $92 ??
Lehman Bros....??

Sonic
Not to mention Merrill and AIG.
Japan was also on holiday so the liquidity was very thin.
  • #3,576
  • Sep 15, 2008 7:44am Sep 15, 2008 7:44am
At first glance I like the 1.4040 level on EU, visible on 4H, close to 78.6fib retrace, and I still maintain that the shedding of some of the recent USD gains that we witnessed on Friday was not just profit taking but inevitable reaction to an over-extended market move. We have retraced to the 61.8 fib and started making some consolidatory/bullish candles so there is an argument that some demand is creeping back in to the market at the open of this session. Watch out for the US open range breakout - if we break below the range made in the last hour or so that is a bearish signal. If we get down to 1.4040 area I would wait for some evidence of price action slowing down, as the trend is technically down and don't want to get caught in a really hot market. Generally when the established support/resistance levels are broken they get smashed so watch out for long momentum candles. I recall BRV speaking on watching the tick chart, but he never really expanded upon it, perhaps this was what he was referring to.
  • #3,577
  • Sep 15, 2008 9:40am Sep 15, 2008 9:40am
Quoting birdt
The concept of using a standard 40 pip stop I think needs to be considered carefully by the trader - for simplicity it is ideal, but realistically is a one-size fits all policy going to produce the optimum results for each pair and in all market conditions? I think it is unlikely to be the case. A volatility based stop is surely the way forward, or placing a stop behind a further support/resistance point, as long as the R:R potential is good
I know that you are correct one size does not fit all. One of the reasons that this method is so attractive was the 40 pip stop on BRV recorded trades on first page. Wait for the very best set ups at a 40 SL and 240 TP. I move the SL to break even at +40.
Is this realistic???

The prospects of placing a SL behind SR is another method I am Demoing. It kept me out of thet usdcad trade today. You made a nice call there!

I have seen numbers but was interested in your thoughts as to what is minimal acceptable R:R ??

thanks
  • #3,578
  • Sep 15, 2008 10:37am Sep 15, 2008 10:37am
Just wondering how he has not been posting for a long time..
  • #3,579
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:44pm Sep 15, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting dorellino
Just wondering how he has not been posting for a long time..
Its funny as you post this Im in the thread today digging through everything Ive been missing out on here for the past month! Ive just been very busy lately with life getting the better of me here but I thought I would make an entrance at some point and post a few things about what has been going on lately. I'll post in a few and my dedication can be a little above average than it has been as of lately this I promise you:
  • #3,580
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:03pm Sep 15, 2008 2:03pm
One of the reasons I read bank research so much is to get in on any information I cant necessarily see with my own two eyes. A perfect example of this happened last Thursday when EUR/USD hit a monthly trendline and come off of it for about a 600 pip run. Most people, I know, were waiting for the 50% fib level to get hit, while market movers had their eyes set pretty heavily on this trendline.

The problem with a monthly trendline like this is knowing exactly where price is going to turn. For that, I turn to the research, where I read that rumors were going around all day about 1.3880. Based on my own analysis I actually has a slightly higher level, and was off about 20-30 pips from this mark.

Its just a lesson in reading all that you can about the day and gathering as much useful information as possible in order to come to the most profitable outcome. Again for info like this I'm just looking at Oanda's IFR research, regularly reading the individual ccy pair briefings and other related materials.

My own research and analysis is generally what pays me the most, but there is always going to be something you either didnt see or are not aware of. For that, its important to dig through what you can and stay abreast of any relevant information in regards to your trading.
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