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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,641
  • Sep 12, 2008 9:53am Sep 12, 2008 9:53am
Quoting Big1red9
I opened a fresh (new trade) short at 1.6005 this morning.
Second position added at 1.6048
  • #1,642
  • Sep 12, 2008 9:59am Sep 12, 2008 9:59am
Quoting smotty
I have a question

I went short at 1.5968 and then short again at 1.6015. I closed the second short for a profit at 1.5968 and the price has moved back up to 1.6015.

Is it part of the rules to take the second short again?
That is the way I understand it. I reentered short @ EUR/CHF 1.6020.
  • #1,643
  • Edited 10:35am Sep 12, 2008 10:32am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting smotty
I have a question

I went short at 1.5968 and then short again at 1.6015. I closed the second short for a profit at 1.5968 and the price has moved back up to 1.6015.

Is it part of the rules to take the second short again?
What follows is based upon the current days zero point.

1lot -0.25( or +0.25 of course) – Exit half at 0.00, other half close to +0.25
lot 2 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 3 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 4 -0.50 exit 0.25 pull back (pb) - re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
Note: If first 4 entries in and no pullback then delay lot 5 until -1.0 not -0.50
Exit on -0.50 not -0.25and re-enter on -1.0 from previous exit
lot 5 -0.50 exit 0.25pb – re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 6 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 7 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 8 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot 9 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot10 -3% double lots exit 2pb -– No re-entry, just hold until pb
  • #1,644
  • Sep 12, 2008 10:52am Sep 12, 2008 10:52am
Hi,

I guess that theory with the symmetrical triangle did not work out.

I actually have three positions open of which the first two were a little early regarding the momentum of the upmove. At least the second position should have been entered about 20-30 pips later than I did.http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1632

Does anybody have an idea what has triggered the eurchf skyrocket?

Regards
  • #1,645
  • Sep 12, 2008 11:32am Sep 12, 2008 11:32am
Quoting Big1red9
What follows is based upon the current days zero point.

1lot -0.25( or +0.25 of course) – Exit half at 0.00, other half close to +0.25
lot 2 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 3 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 4 -0.50 exit 0.25 pull back (pb) - re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
Note: If first 4 entries in and no pullback then delay lot 5 until -1.0 not -0.50
Exit on -0.50 not -0.25and re-enter on -1.0 from previous exit
lot 5 -0.50 exit 0.25pb – re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit
lot 6 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 7 -1 exit 0.50 pb – re-enter at -1.00 from previous exit
lot 8 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot 9 -2 exit 1 pb – re-enter at -2.00 from previous exit
lot10 -3% double lots exit 2pb -– No re-entry, just hold until pb
Hi Bigred

thanks for the information. Its probably me being thick, but i just want to clarify so i understand perfectly and i will use my trades as an example

close for the previous day for me was 1.5929 so first short was due at 1.5968 (+25%) I went short at 1.5971. Price continued up and i took second short at 1.6015 (+30%) normally plus 25% but price was moving fast.

Price then moved back 25% and i closed the whole second lot out at 1.5968. (I know the rule states half there and half at a further 25% on but i feel comfortable booking profits)

Price then continued back up. Are you saying that my next short should have been 50% from my exit at around 1.6047?

thanks

Jonathan
  • #1,646
  • Edited 12:05pm Sep 12, 2008 11:49am | Edited 12:05pm
Jonathan,

Your welcome.

As I understand it...

1. Only the first position has 1/2 closed at the zero point. The other half at the -/+ .25% mark.
2. You closed your #2 position correctly.
3. The #2 position should be taken again at +/- .50% or 80 pips from exit - so in your case the target would be to short at 1.6089

BR

Quoting smotty
Hi Bigred

thanks for the information. Its probably me being thick, but i just want to clarify so i understand perfectly and i will use my trades as an example

close for the previous day for me was 1.5929 so first short was due at 1.5968 (+25%) I went short at 1.5971. Price continued up and i took second short at 1.6015 (+30%) normally plus 25% but price was moving fast.

Price then moved back 25% and i closed the whole second lot out at 1.5968. (I know the rule states half there and half at a further 25% on but i feel comfortable booking profits)

Price then continued back up. Are you saying that my next short should have been 50% from my exit at around 1.6047?

thanks

Jonathan
  • #1,647
  • Sep 13, 2008 11:35am Sep 13, 2008 11:35am
Quoting smotty
Hi Bigred

thanks for the information. Its probably me being thick, but i just want to clarify so i understand perfectly and i will use my trades as an example

close for the previous day for me was 1.5929 so first short was due at 1.5968 (+25%) I went short at 1.5971. Price continued up and i took second short at 1.6015 (+30%) normally plus 25% but price was moving fast.

Price then moved back 25% and i closed the whole second lot out at 1.5968. (I know the rule states half there and half at a further 25% on but i feel comfortable booking profits)

Price then continued back up. Are you saying that my next short should have been 50% from my exit at around 1.6047?

thanks

Jonathan
Hi Jonathan,

according to your numbers the next short position should be opened at 1,6047, as far as I understand it. Probably you've opened it already.

I'm actually trying to handle my last short trade as the table says.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1632

I entered the second position too early, which was a mistake due to the high momentum. The third position I entered fairly late, because of the momentum still being high.

That's why the table is an orientation guide, using values of 40 pips/ 0,25%. Unregular market conditions should make us cautious and stretch the entry to about 60pips/0,37%. That's why my second trade should have been entered later, after 60 pips and not after 40 pips.

So instead of using 40 pip steps, we'd be better off using 60 pip steps now.

I will keep this trade updated here in the forum so we can check how it goes on.
(if my nerves resist a further rise of the eur )

Regards
  • #1,648
  • Sep 13, 2008 1:22pm Sep 13, 2008 1:22pm
Based on the chart (lot 2 below) - the target re-entry would be .50% or 80 pips from the previous exit.
To me that means the exit price on lot 2. Exit price = target, not actual fill.

"lot 2 -0.25 – Exit on 0.25 pb/ re-enter at -0.50 from previous exit."

I try to stick with the targets no matter what is taking place so that I can evaluate this method-albeit what we are discussing is more money management than the impact to divergence or correlation on the EURCHF.

I have taken positions later. I have read that Spieler begins taking positions at about .20%.

I think it boils down to the amount of capital and confidence in the method and in ones ability to work yourself out of tight spot if one shows up.

My Sat morning .02
BR


Quoting ashes
Hi Jonathan,

according to your numbers the next short position should be opened at 1,6047, as far as I understand it. Probably you've opened it already.

I'm actually trying to handle my last short trade as the table says.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1632

I entered the second position too early, which was a mistake due to the high momentum. The third position I entered fairly late, because of the momentum still being high.

That's why the table is an orientation guide, using values of 40 pips/ 0,25%. Unregular market conditions should make us cautious and stretch the entry to about 60pips/0,37%. That's why my second trade should have been entered later, after 60 pips and not after 40 pips.

So instead of using 40 pip steps, we'd be better off using 60 pip steps now.

I will keep this trade updated here in the forum so we can check how it goes on.
(if my nerves resist a further rise of the eur )

Regards
  • #1,649
  • Sep 13, 2008 10:12pm Sep 13, 2008 10:12pm
i think you are right. I have doing the same thing. If i can get a trade @ +- 20 % i will otherwise the 1st trade @ +- 30 is even better. This have been doing good to me lately.
Maybe Speiler would be able to answer this much more educatedly, to enter when we see the divergence or also look at the trend and all the other technicalties?
  • #1,650
  • Sep 14, 2008 2:34pm Sep 14, 2008 2:34pm
At least at the moment...it appears that EURCHF is heading lower.

My Fri close 1.6077
Current 1.6020

BR
  • #1,651
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:14am Sep 15, 2008 1:14am
These are interesting times.. Lehman plans to file a chapter 11 petition according to Bloomberg.
  • #1,652
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:54am Sep 15, 2008 1:54am
Quoting Big1red9
I opened a fresh (new trade) short at 1.6005 this morning.
Closed at 1.5963
  • #1,653
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:55am Sep 15, 2008 1:55am
Quoting Big1red9
Second position added at 1.6048
Closed at 1.6018
  • #1,654
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:58am Sep 15, 2008 1:58am
And Bank of America is buying Merrill Lynch - Dow futures down 300+

Quoting FXSnipe
These are interesting times.. Lehman plans to file a chapter 11 petition according to Bloomberg.
  • #1,655
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:14am Sep 15, 2008 2:14am
Quoting Big1red9
And Bank of America is buying Merrill Lynch - Dow futures down 300+

Who will be left, GS and JPMorgan? The scary queastion to ask is who will be next?
  • #1,656
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:30am Sep 15, 2008 2:30am
I am back from Europe.
Hope you made nice trades because volatility is back and supposed to be good for trading.
I just closed a position built on cable since 01st of september for a huge mid 6 figures profit
  • #1,657
  • Edited 5:51am Sep 15, 2008 2:36am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting ashes
23:45 gmt

late entry, I should have come home an hour earlier ...

short at eurchf 1,5929

eurusd 1,4002

usdchf 1,1374


12 sept 8:28 gmt

2nd short eurchf 1,5972

eurusd 1,4083

usdchf 1,1338


9:19 gmt

oh, oh, this goes way to fast ...

if I enter a 3rd then around 1,6021/1,6031 and not at 1,6011


16:35 gmt

3rd short at eurchf 1,6056

eurusd 1,4194

usdchf 1,1314

4th entry not before 1,6120

what a move ... I just hope to get out of this trade alive ... well, I'm going to build my positions according to the rules. learning by doing

Regards
7:20 gmt

3rd trade closed at eurchf 1,5985

eurusd closed 1,4376 = -182 pips

usdchf closed 1,1121 closed = +193 pips

= + 11 pips

8:30 gmt

2nd trade closed

eurchf 1,5891

eurusd closed 1,4248 = -165 pips

usdchf closed 1,1161 = +177 pips

= +12 pips

edit 11:35 gmt

closed 1st position breakeven, although exit point passed .... confused
  • #1,658
  • Edited 5:37am Sep 15, 2008 2:38am | Edited 5:37am
Hello,

I closed my third trade this morning.
Interesting thing was that when eurchf was at closing point, 40 pips below my entry, the hedge showed +/-0. So I waited for eurchf to drop 30 additional pips before I could close it with a little profit of about +11pips.

Could somebody please explaint to me, why the trade was breakeven at closing point? And why the profit was so little thus the 70 pips distance from opening?

Thank you

Regards

Edit: same thing seems to happen with the 2nd position. it is at closing point now, 40 pips below entry, but the hedge is still at -19 pips.
Why is that?

Edit: I've closed the 2nd position at 80 pips below entry eurchf, but I just got +12 pips out of it.

actually I'm 25 below closing point of my 1st position, but I'd exit with small loss or breakeven.

can anybody please help me with an explanation?
  • #1,659
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:50am Sep 15, 2008 2:50am
Quoting spieler
I am back from Europe.
Hope you made nice trades because volatility is back and supposed to be good for trading.
I just closed a position built on cable since 01st of september for a huge mid 6 figures profit
spieler-

Welcome back, hope your trip was sucessful.
Yes, volatility was good last week and we have been having fun. I am close to closing a built short position at very good profit. Well done on the Cable.
  • #1,660
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:55am Sep 15, 2008 2:55am
Quoting spieler
I am back from Europe.
Hope you made nice trades because volatility is back and supposed to be good for trading.
I just closed a position built on cable since 01st of september for a huge mid 6 figures profit
speiler, hi, this that a hedge trade of something else.
Thanks for the method that you have shown us.
I have a problem with putting orders at the same time. I know that you talked about putting an order in first and before you put in the 2nd , the 1st goes into profit and you close that only one order with a profit. that is neat but i did a totally opposite. I put in an order and it worked against me so i waited for it to come back but it kept going away so i had to put the hedge with a greater gap.
I had seen a script somewhere that puts 2 orders simultaneously. Anyone has something like that?
thanks in advance.
Teldon
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