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  • #621
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:00am Sep 15, 2008 12:00am
Quoting ozziedave
Islander,

Yes..ur following me. We may get a relatively small retrace before we go up and take out a few expansion levels and then we may have a larger retracement back to say the 987 fib zone. Again, my intent is to show people the many ways in which you can apply what Mouteki is teaching us here on the forum. I am not in any way telling people to trade these moves. That decision is up to you to make.
Agreed - and also we must remember that so far we only have the first part of Mouteki's three part system.

So far USDCHF has had a Gap Down Open - this depending on your broker - and has its low so far at 1.1058 about three hours ago and at the start of Frankies Hour put in a higher low at 1080.

The Euro did the opposite with a high, then a lower high and cable two equal highs.

All of these moves have - IMO - been triggered by a Fundemental News
Event -

"Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., once the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, will file for bankruptcy after potential buyers abandoned talks and the U.S. government declined to fund a takeover of the crippled firm. "

Also, in order to avoid a similar fate, "Merrill Lynch, 94 years old and also based in New York, agreed to sell itself to Bank of America Corp. for $50 billion in an emergency deal hashed out yesterday"

These momentous events, coupled with a rumour that they may lead The Fed to ease rates again, could well lead to changes in market direction and we should be prepared for some wild swings as different stories hit the news wires.....it should be an interesting week for trading!....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #622
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:21am Sep 15, 2008 12:21am
The EUR/USD is retracing back from 61.8 (but this is on 4HR chart)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #623
  • Sep 15, 2008 12:44am Sep 15, 2008 12:44am
oops great topic , tnx moutekitrader for all this valueble forex method. don't know how will i test all these methods!!!
  • #624
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:08am Sep 15, 2008 1:08am
This is a 4hr chart of the EUR. Do you see that price was rejected by the 610 fib zone? This was easily a 50 pip plus trade with very little risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #625
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:22am Sep 15, 2008 1:22am
Quoting ozziedave
This is a 4hr chart of the EUR. Do you see that price was rejected by the 610 fib zone? This was easily a 50 pip plus trade with very little risk.
Hi ozziedave,

I am curious on the current setup. With the gap up of EU and pushing it close to the 610 fib zone, but not touching it, it retraces back to the 377 fib zone. I have seen other pair that Mouteki shown normally touches or push pass the 610 zone but not in this instance. I wonder if it will go back up to really touches the 610 zone once more before the begin it original trend, south.

I pull a fib from the low of the up direction to today high and noticed that it hasn't reach the 38.2 fib level so there is no harmony yet. Maybe this is why I think it will need to go higher. Just thinking out loud.

Regards
  • #626
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:23am Sep 15, 2008 1:23am
AS the markets have stalled - whilst digesting the weekend's news? - here's my 15 min chart, working (hopefully!) off Ozzie Dave's earlier post.

As the current news event is US driven, I'm thinking that Europe will basically mark time until the US traders wake up - this also coincides with my next time zone for a low - the blue area which I have placed over the yellow retracements of the bounce so far, which stopped at the confluence of the 61% retrace (gold fib), 610 Fib Zone and 4500 level.

Thus I'm suggesting that price will continue the current fall within the dashed Gann Channel and move into the 38% - 61% retracement area and thus retracing back to the 377 Fib Zone before turning north again.....as always, Time Will Tell....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #627
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:38am Sep 15, 2008 1:38am
Quoting ozziedave
This is a 4hr chart of the EUR. Do you see that price was rejected by the 610 fib zone? This was easily a 50 pip plus trade with very little risk.
Agreed -after the reversal from just under 4500 there was a 130 pip pull back to the 4350 level follwed by a bounce into the Frankfurt Open which failed at yet another sweet spot - the 4450 level - what a great Sell! - with a 35 pip stop above the high....currently the 4250 level is holding. I'm holding my shorts with a trailing stop, looking for at least the 4200 level into the US open.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #628
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:44am Sep 15, 2008 1:44am
Quoting jlmac27
Good for you copi,glad to hear that!I am still in as well.Tommy C,where can I get that chart of yours,you have put up in your prior post?Smart money Dumb money.Thanks!Keep it up copi!
330 pips now
Will be interesting to see where it turns around
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Boxing clever since 76.
  • #629
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:49am Sep 15, 2008 1:49am
Quoting ozziedave
This is a 4hr chart of the EUR. Do you see that price was rejected by the 610 fib zone? This was easily a 50 pip plus trade with very little risk.

Currently, market is at the 38.2 retracement, which overlaps the 377 Fib sequence. If it respects this and takes out the 610 once again, I think we'll see the 987 being taken out. Especially after the Lehman Brothers news of bankruptcy, the worse news on banks since the credit crunch began.

US markets may open with a lot of USD selling.

However, we'll watch the Fibs.
  • #630
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:40am Sep 15, 2008 2:40am
Quoting Hwd
Currently, market is at the 38.2 retracement, which overlaps the 377 Fib sequence. If it respects this and takes out the 610 once again, I think we'll see the 987 being taken out. Especially after the Lehman Brothers news of bankruptcy, the worse news on banks since the credit crunch began.

US markets may open with a lot of USD selling.

However, we'll watch the Fibs.
I think if it fill the gap, then it might go back to 233 fib level. As oil price is getting lower, EU might follow suite.

Watching the fibs now.
  • #631
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:53am Sep 15, 2008 2:53am
My news indicator is up and running in preparation for Mouteki's news fundamentals.

As for Eur/Usd, it might head North after closing gap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #632
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:01am Sep 15, 2008 3:01am
If there is correlation between GBP and EUR, then following Mouteki & friends, the GBP requires to drop further to about 1.7870 which is the 38.2 Fib. This may well take the Euro lower before any new attempt to go north.
  • #633
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:29am Sep 15, 2008 3:29am
Quoting kamsurin
If there is correlation between GBP and EUR, then following Mouteki & friends, the GBP requires to drop further to about 1.7870 which is the 38.2 Fib. This may well take the Euro lower before any new attempt to go north.
The correlation is much better between the EUR and CHF. Gaps tend to get filled no matter what pair they occur on..it's just a matter of when it will happen.
  • #634
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:40am Sep 15, 2008 3:40am
hi guys ,

I would like to know your opinion on the eur\usd , it seems like it respected the 50 fib retracement , and got back to the down move ..
the problem is - if I'll short it , the stop will be 200 pips away , where the 50 fib retracement ..

about the cad\jpy , it seems like I missed the train...
  • #635
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:05am Sep 15, 2008 4:05am
For everyone who wanted to know where I got the charts of the COT data, I got it from this site:

http://www.cot-futures.com/

It is a subscription based site, although it only costs $4.95/month. The COT raw data is available from the CFTC for free every Friday. The advantage of this site is that it puts the data in graphical form for you.
  • #636
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:25am Sep 15, 2008 4:25am
Quoting Barak's pip
hi guys ,

I would like to know your opinion on the eur\usd , it seems like it respected the 50 fib retracement , and got back to the down move ..
the problem is - if I'll short it , the stop will be 200 pips away , where the 50 fib retracement ..

about the cad\jpy , it seems like I missed the train...
At this point the EUR has moved down 350 pips..if you are not in a short position already I would wait for some type of pullback before trying to enter a position. Remember most of the big boys have already sold this pair a few hundred pips back..so who do you think would be selling after a 350 pip move to the downside...???
  • #637
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:34am Sep 15, 2008 4:34am
Quoting ozziedave
At this point the EUR has moved down 350 pips..if you are not in a short position already I would wait for some type of pullback before trying to enter a position. Remember most of the big boys have already sold this pair a few hundred pips back..so who do you think would be selling after a 350 pip move to the downside...???
you are absolutelly right , it is better to wait for a pullback - and also for the NY open ,

anyway , did you see any other interesting pair that has harmony ?

Barak
  • #638
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:47am Sep 15, 2008 4:47am
Closed my Euro shorts and I'm long a small position into NY open....

Edit stop moved to B/E +5
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #639
  • Sep 15, 2008 4:51am Sep 15, 2008 4:51am
Thank you Mouteki for sharing this information with the rest of us.

Just one question:
I've followed your wonderful videos and tried to paper trade this great system before going at it 'for real'.

On the Cable 4hr chart, I'm expecting price to retrace, posiibly the 50%, 68% or 78,6% before continuing up.

1)Assuming I am correct, my first question is when do I pull the "trigger"?
When price goes back up and through the 50%/68% or 78,6% of the gold fib? OR
When price goes up and through the Fib zone/s?

2)Where do I put my exit points? at the lower fib zone (StopLoss) and target the higher fib zone?

Thanks again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #640
  • Edited 5:19am Sep 15, 2008 4:59am | Edited 5:19am
Quoting Islander
Closed my Euro shorts and I'm long a small position into NY open....

Edit stop moved to B/E +5
Hi Islander

Where did you get in? I entered on the 61.8% retracement from the top of the move( Blue Box). Which also happend to be a nice round number 1.4100. Up about 55 pips at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 32 KB
Boxing clever since 76.
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