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New Mouteki Method...

  • #601
  • Sep 14, 2008 8:00am Sep 14, 2008 8:00am
Quoting Islander
Taking OD's excellent work here's my shorter term chart....I'm looking either for an early reversal in the first green area around the gold fibs OR a deeper, longer retrace in line with the yellow fib and into the second green area.

A bounce out of either and a break to new highs opens the way for any of the higher levels to come into play.

I'll be watching on my 15m chart and ready to jump on board as soon as I get a signal......
Islander,

Yes..ur following me. We may get a relatively small retrace before we go up and take out a few expansion levels and then we may have a larger retracement back to say the 987 fib zone. Again, my intent is to show people the many ways in which you can apply what Mouteki is teaching us here on the forum. I am not in any way telling people to trade these moves. That decision is up to you to make.
  • #602
  • Sep 14, 2008 8:34am Sep 14, 2008 8:34am
Quoting ozziedave
Barak..

Some of those retraces are maybe anywhere from 100-300 pips. I do expect the EUR to go down but I think it may retrace long before that happens. That's the same for CHF..a retrace before going long again. Now that doesn't mean that both pairs might not take off in the major trend direction without a retrace. Like I said before I'm a bit impatient so what I was trying to figure out is a way to trade the corrections to major trends, so that is why I am pulling some fibs in the opposite direction at times. In both instances, it appears that the EUR and CHF are looking like they need to retrace before they resume the major trend direction. Now, this may not happen on Monday, it may take a few days before the reversal point is formed. This is where support and resistance areas help identify where turning points might occur. For instance, if you look at the AUDUSD on a weekly chart you will see it hit a big time support area last week and is starting to retrace. How high will it retrace..I don't know but if you start to pull fibs to the upside and you see harmony we may be in for a large retrace before it resumes the down trend. Again, you have to watch price action in conjunction with what Mouteki is teaching us.

thank you , now I understand what you meant
  • #603
  • Edited 12:32pm Sep 14, 2008 8:58am | Edited 12:32pm
Hello,
Can anyone tell me why I cannot get any of these fib zones or fib level,indicators to apply to my chart?I have them in place in my customs folder but they do not apply.Thanks in advance!
  • #604
  • Sep 14, 2008 10:38am Sep 14, 2008 10:38am
take a look at a pair , that to me looks like a setup in progress ..

There was a respect of the 38 , and now reached the 100 exp. , also look at the gap there (I don't what's Mouteki opinion about them) , but look how the gap respected them .

hope to hear your comments about this pair...

Barak.
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  • #605
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:26am Sep 14, 2008 11:26am
Look forward to current posts and views.......always learning!!
All Your Money Are Belong To Us...
  • #606
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:27am Sep 14, 2008 11:27am
Quoting Barak's pip
take a look at a pair , that to me looks like a setup in progress ..

There was a respect of the 38 , and now reached the 100 exp. , also look at the gap there (I don't what's Mouteki opinion about them) , but look how the gap respected them .

hope to hear your comments about this pair...

Barak.
From what I see if we get a pullback and it respects then yes but looking at W1 tf it is still heading down and respecting the zones along the way. This is a good question though, when do we stop looking at say a down trend and start looking at it heading the other way
  • #607
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:57am Sep 14, 2008 11:57am
Yes it is the dilemma.

Buy on dip/pullback??

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Time to short??

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  • #608
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:43pm Sep 14, 2008 3:43pm
Quoting moutekitrader
So, as I'm trying to put together this cool fib&fund presentation...I realized that you all have been talking about this news plugin for mt4...

You see, I am not to smart when it comes to these charts, I only use them since most all in the forum use them.

It would be great if I could get this feature in the charts...would make my life a lot easier and help me put together some cool stuff for you all to enjoy.

I tried getting it but to be honest, got lost in the first post of the thread...it's so long...

If someone could hook me up with this I would appreciate it sooo much!!!

Thanks,
M

ps...I hope you don't think im lazy and dont want to figure it out myself, I was just hoping to get a guiding hand...thanks again

If you want an userfriendly alternative of the FFcal indicator that was mentioned here, I would suggest the "IN10TION NewsReader v09.8" which you can find on Forex-std forum.

No hours wasted setting up FFCAL for those like me that need a tutor

It not only displays news, but also international time clocks, spread & swap data, currency pair correlations and relative strengths, and a 'traffic light' bullish/bearish summary in each timeframe, all in a very elegant 'dashboard' presentation.

for info: http://www.forex-tsd.com/news-signal...ewsreader.html
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ! IN10TION NewsReader v09.8 lite.ex4   108 KB | 448 downloads
  • #609
  • Sep 14, 2008 3:53pm Sep 14, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting Barak's pip
take a look at a pair , that to me looks like a setup in progress ..

There was a respect of the 38 , and now reached the 100 exp. , also look at the gap there (I don't what's Mouteki opinion about them) , but look how the gap respected them .

hope to hear your comments about this pair...

Barak.
Barak...

In this case you have one fib retracement that has been respected...now ask yourself...in all of Mouteki's videos was he ever able to determine fib harmony with one fib retracement??? As far as I can see based on your chart you only have one fib retracement and I don't see any fib zones at all. I am not sure what set up you are referring to? My understanding of what Mouteki is teaching is he would have to see several fib retracements being respected along with respect of fib zones and expansions before he would consider entering a position. Maybe you have all that on your chart but based on what you've shown I would sit back and collect more data before considering a trade. I hope that helps.
  • #610
  • Edited 4:23pm Sep 14, 2008 4:12pm | Edited 4:23pm
Quoting homestudy
From what I see if we get a pullback and it respects then yes but looking at W1 tf it is still heading down and respecting the zones along the way. This is a good question though, when do we stop looking at say a down trend and start looking at it heading the other way
Hi Homestudy...

If you read some of my past posts you will see this is one of the things that I have been trying show people. For example, a currency pair has been in a strong down trend, it appears that price is correcting and heading to the long side. One way to confirm the up move is to start pulling fib retracements to the up side (each new swing high). If you start to see harmony with the fib zones and respect of the fib retraements then I would say you have a valid pullback or correction of the dominate trend. Now, the decision is...do I wait for the correction to complete and trade when price action turns back to the down trend or do I take a long trade against the major trend? I know we all want to get into trades and make some money but at this point Mouteki hasn't revealed his entry techniques so whatever you decide to do will be based on your own ability and knowledge. In my case, I feel comfortable enough with combining what I have learned from Mouteki with my entry methodology to be able to enter a trade. If you don't have the confidence in your entry methodology and you are still struggling to understand what Mouteki is teaching us I would stand aside until you get a better understanding of Mouteki's system. There's no sense in risking real money or if you must use real money, at least reduce your lot size until you feel confident in what you're doing.
  • #611
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:56pm Sep 14, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting ozziedave
Barak...

In this case you have one fib retracement that has been respected...now ask yourself...in all of Mouteki's videos was he ever able to determine fib harmony with one fib retracement??? As far as I can see based on your chart you only have one fib retracement and I don't see any fib zones at all. I am not sure what set up you are referring to? My understanding of what Mouteki is teaching is he would have to see several fib retracements being respected along with respect of fib zones and expansions before he would consider entering a position. Maybe you have all that on your chart but based on what you've shown I would sit back and collect more data before considering a trade. I hope that helps.
hi ozziedave ,

the fib zone I have reffered to are the red lines (I just didn't included the no. of them) , for now it seems to me that there is harmony in the gbp\chf pair , I don't say it's a perfect set up , I only say it can be developed - so I watch it closelly .

any way , what do you say about the cad\jpy (last vid of Mouteki) , it seems like it hit the 38 fib retracement and got back to the down move ... I'll wait for further developments - and thinking about a short .
what do you think?
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  • #612
  • Sep 14, 2008 4:57pm Sep 14, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Homestudy...

If you read some of my past posts you will see this is one of the things that I have been trying show people. For example, a currency pair has been in a strong down trend, it appears that price is correcting and heading to the long side. One way to confirm the up move is to start pulling fib retracements to the up side (each new swing high). If you start to see harmony with the fib zones and respect of the fib retraements then I would say you have a valid pullback or correction of the dominate trend. Now, the decision is...do I wait for the correction to complete and trade when price action turns back to the down trend or do I take a long trade against the major trend? I know we all want to get into trades and make some money but at this point Mouteki hasn't revealed his entry techniques so whatever you decide to do will be based on your own ability and knowledge. In my case, I feel comfortable enough with combining what I have learned from Mouteki with my entry methodology to be able to enter a trade. If you don't have the confidence in your entry methodology and you are still struggling to understand what Mouteki is teaching us I would stand aside until you get a better understanding of Mouteki's system. There's no sense in risking real money or if you must use real money, at least reduce your lot size until you feel confident in what you're doing.
Dave,

Thank you for the reply! I am still learning this so everything I have been doing is on demo. I will review your posts more closely. I was just trying to answer a different poster about gbp/chf and came up with the same conclusion as you there needs to be more information. I have been really enjoying this so far and think Mouteki has been doing an outstanding job!
Enjoy and Good Trading
Jim
  • #613
  • Edited 6:34pm Sep 14, 2008 5:08pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting Barak's pip
hi ozziedave ,

the fib zone I have reffered to are the red lines (I just didn't included the no. of them) , for now it seems to me that there is harmony in the gbp\chf pair , I don't say it's a perfect set up , I only say it can be developed - so I watch it closelly .

any way , what do you say about the cad\jpy (last vid of Mouteki) , it seems like it hit the 38 fib retracement and got back to the down move ... I'll wait for further developments - and thinking about a short .
what do you think?
Hi Barak,

I'm not able to access my charts right now but I see there seems to be opening day gaps on alot of pairs today. When a large gap opens the week like this I would be very careful in entering a position. At some point today the chances that the gap will be fill are a high probability. I believe there was an opening day gap last week (Monday)...and most pairs filled that gap within 24 hours. Take a look back and you'll see what I mean.

On the gbpchf...again I am not at my charts so I feel that I shouldn't comment any further. If you feel there is harmony and fib respect and it makes sense to you...then trade it accorrdingly.
  • #614
  • Sep 14, 2008 7:05pm Sep 14, 2008 7:05pm
Quoting Barak's pip
take a look at a pair , that to me looks like a setup in progress ..

There was a respect of the 38 , and now reached the 100 exp. , also look at the gap there (I don't what's Mouteki opinion about them) , but look how the gap respected them .

hope to hear your comments about this pair...

Barak.
I think if it retraces it will go to 38 as there was some support here previously. It could also retraces to 61.8 just to close that gap.

Cheers
  • #615
  • Sep 14, 2008 8:04pm Sep 14, 2008 8:04pm
Hey everyone,

So the GBP/USD started a retracement on Friday. I thought that I would post some charts analyzing what it might do from here.

First I posted an hourly chart. From it you can see that price started at a low of 1.7444 and then started going up. The first retracement (orange) came back to the 61.8% level. After another push up, which hit the 61.8FE of the first retracement, price retraced again. This time it came back to the 38.2% level. The third push hit the 100% expansion of the first retracement, the 61.8% expansion of the first retracement, and the 233 fib sequence. The next push up has taken out all the expansions, so far, the 377 fib sequence, and has gotten within 16 pips of the 610 level. I think, at this point, that price will probably retrace back to the 233 level, for that is also is the 61.8% retracement level of the whole upmove so far, as well as the 100% expansion of the first retracement and the 61.8% expansion of the second retracement. From there, it should continue north for a while. How far up? Well, I also attached a weekly chart...

On the weekly chart, given the fib sequence numbers that have been passed, and the overlapping fib retracements, it looks like it should go to 1.9546 at least. From the 233 level of the uptrend (1.7677) to the 1597 level of the downtrend (1.9546), that's at least a move of 1869 pips.

I don't, however, think that the GBP/USD is going to continue going down. I have also attached a chart of the most recent Commitment of Traders data for the Great British Pound from the futures market. On the chart, the orange line is the big commercial traders. The green and blue lines are the small speculators (you and me) and the momentum traders. The large commercial traders (the SMART money), are never wrong. They can't afford to be. As you can see from the chart, they are 100% long on the GBP. They have been buying as the price of the GBP has been falling through the floor (buy low, sell high). The DUMB money (you and me) have been selling as the GBP has been falling, so the DUMB money is completely short (sell low, buy high!). Now is the time when we should be looking for price to turn up. It has taken over a year for the smart money to go from completely short on the GBP to completely long. That means that we're setting up for another fairly long term trend the other direction now.

Still, that's just my guess.

Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.
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  • #616
  • Sep 14, 2008 9:07pm Sep 14, 2008 9:07pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Hey everyone,

So the GBP/USD started a retracement on Friday. I thought that I would post some charts analyzing what it might do from here.

First I posted an hourly chart. From it you can see that price started at a low of 1.7444 and then started going up. The first retracement (orange) came back to the 61.8% level. After another push up, which hit the 61.8FE of the first retracement, price retraced again. This time it came back to the 38.2% level. The third push hit the 100% expansion of the first retracement, the 61.8% expansion of the first retracement, and the 233 fib sequence. The next push up has taken out all the expansions, so far, the 377 fib sequence, and has gotten within 16 pips of the 610 level. I think, at this point, that price will probably retrace back to the 233 level, for that is also is the 61.8% retracement level of the whole upmove so far, as well as the 100% expansion of the first retracement and the 61.8% expansion of the second retracement. From there, it should continue north for a while. How far up? Well, I also attached a weekly chart...

On the weekly chart, given the fib sequence numbers that have been passed, and the overlapping fib retracements, it looks like it should go to 1.9546 at least. From the 233 level of the uptrend (1.7677) to the 1597 level of the downtrend (1.9546), that's at least a move of 1869 pips.

I don't, however, think that the GBP/USD is going to continue going down. I have also attached a chart of the most recent Commitment of Traders data for the Great British Pound from the futures market. On the chart, the orange line is the big commercial traders. The green and blue lines are the small speculators (you and me) and the momentum traders. The large commercial traders (the SMART money), are never wrong. They can't afford to be. As you can see from the chart, they are 100% long on the GBP. They have been buying as the price of the GBP has been falling through the floor (buy low, sell high). The DUMB money (you and me) have been selling as the GBP has been falling, so the DUMB money is completely short (sell low, buy high!). Now is the time when we should be looking for price to turn up. It has taken over a year for the smart money to go from completely short on the GBP to completely long. That means that we're setting up for another fairly long term trend the other direction now.

Still, that's just my guess.

Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.
Hi Tommy..

Nice analysis of the GBP. I would agree that most of the majors against the USD are looking to resume the dominate trend. If you look at a weekly GBP or EUR chart you'll see that the overall trend has been up for some time and this last move lower is just a correction to that trend. I believe most of the big boys are loading up on long positions and as you say..they're never wrong because they can't afford to be!
  • #617
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:49pm Sep 14, 2008 11:49pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Hey everyone,

So the GBP/USD started a retracement on Friday. I thought that I would post some charts analyzing what it might do from here.

First I posted an hourly chart. From it you can see that price started at a low of 1.7444 and then started going up. The first retracement (orange) came back to the 61.8% level. After another push up, which hit the 61.8FE of the first retracement, price retraced again. This time it came back to the 38.2% level. The third push hit the 100% expansion of the first retracement, the 61.8% expansion of the first retracement, and the 233 fib sequence. The next push up has taken out all the expansions, so far, the 377 fib sequence, and has gotten within 16 pips of the 610 level. I think, at this point, that price will probably retrace back to the 233 level, for that is also is the 61.8% retracement level of the whole upmove so far, as well as the 100% expansion of the first retracement and the 61.8% expansion of the second retracement. From there, it should continue north for a while. How far up? Well, I also attached a weekly chart...

On the weekly chart, given the fib sequence numbers that have been passed, and the overlapping fib retracements, it looks like it should go to 1.9546 at least. From the 233 level of the uptrend (1.7677) to the 1597 level of the downtrend (1.9546), that's at least a move of 1869 pips.

I don't, however, think that the GBP/USD is going to continue going down. I have also attached a chart of the most recent Commitment of Traders data for the Great British Pound from the futures market. On the chart, the orange line is the big commercial traders. The green and blue lines are the small speculators (you and me) and the momentum traders. The large commercial traders (the SMART money), are never wrong. They can't afford to be. As you can see from the chart, they are 100% long on the GBP. They have been buying as the price of the GBP has been falling through the floor (buy low, sell high). The DUMB money (you and me) have been selling as the GBP has been falling, so the DUMB money is completely short (sell low, buy high!). Now is the time when we should be looking for price to turn up. It has taken over a year for the smart money to go from completely short on the GBP to completely long. That means that we're setting up for another fairly long term trend the other direction now.

Still, that's just my guess.

Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.

where can I obtain the chart showing the Big Boys commercial traders???
  • #618
  • Sep 14, 2008 11:55pm Sep 14, 2008 11:55pm
Hi everyone,

Today we had a huge gap upon the opening of the week. I've been talking about using the fib zones that Mouteki has taught us about in both directions. So the EUR is a prime example right now. Ok..pull up your daily chart. In a previous post I detailed the move down from the zero fib zone @ 1.4907 (chart 1). Trust me even though I am not showing all of the fibs on the daily chart there is respect and harmony in the down move.

Now pull up your 4 hr chart. Look at where the EUR has been...it's gone down and taken out the 987 fib zone @ pont B and started to retrace. So what I did when it started to retrace long is I pulled a fib from point B back to the original swing high @ 1.4907. Why I did this is I wanted to see if price would retrace and respect that fib retracement. Now realise that price had to retrace at least to 1.4720 to reach the 38% fib retracement of Fib A. So that meant price had to retraceabout 400 pips before it could valid Fib A. So what do we know about price when it takes out a fib zone? It typically retraces back to one of the previous fib zones, in this case it would be the 610 or 377 fib zone. So that's anywhere from a 300 -500 pip retracement.

So knowing this information you can do one of two things...wait for the reteacement to complete and trade with the major trend ..or figure out a way to trade counter trend. As I've said before I'm a bit impatient and I don't think I can sit on my hands and watch a 300-500 pip retracement go by before I trade again.

Please keep in mind this is not Mouteki methodology..it's just my take on how I would apply Mouteki's information to my trading.

So what I decided to do was to start placing fib retracements and fib zones from the low in the up direction just to see if I could spot any harmony or fib respect and guess what I found??? Yes, there is fib respect and fib zone harmony from the low @ 1.3879 (not shown becuase it clutters up the chart). So take a look at where price went on today's open, point C @ 1.4483. Now if you look closely you'll see that it when up to the 610 fib zone of the up move (green fib zone) and it came back up to almost the 377 fib zone of the down move which just happens to be at the 61.8% fib retracement level of Fib A. The other thing to note is there is a big gap that opened up the day and usually these get filled within 24 hours.
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  • #619
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:06am Sep 15, 2008 1:06am
Quoting jlmac27
Hello everyone,
I was just curious if anyone else is in this trade.I entered before this retracement that is happening.I am still pretty confident it will hit the 987 sequence.Just wish I would have waited to enter...oh well live and learn they say.good trading to all of you!!
Jlmac, I took that trade. Got in at 101.46 . 180 pips up at the moment.
Just on demo though
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #620
  • Sep 15, 2008 1:36am Sep 15, 2008 1:36am
Good for you copi,glad to hear that!I am still in as well.Tommy C,where can I get that chart of yours,you have put up in your prior post?Smart money Dumb money.Thanks!Keep it up copi!
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