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- #16,963
- Edited 10:22am Sep 13, 2008 10:19am | Edited 10:22am
- | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Trader | 72 Posts
Hi to all, just listened Philip mp3 file of the weekly wrapup, but i need to ask a few questions...
EU seemed pretty well to me and my charting in FXDD, actually too good, that i decided to do a bit of "polished" charting to let you all know what trade i would have taken!
Hope you like the effort i've put into this, and i hope you overcome that this is one of my
first posts
Happy trading!
--------------------------First Page, 4h View
--------------------------Page Two:
1st Trade:
In 4h we have a TC signal, in 1h we have an end shoulder, close to perfect round top forming, and a risk reward that could be very profitable, i'm taking the odds there.
We don't actually have trendline "a", but there is 89SMA, that could very well be considered resistance.
Sell @ 1.4517
SL @ SL 1 Line, 40 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line +90 pips (actually was 100 but lowered by 10 because it supposedly could came down the next tick)
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green line, 215 pips (i think if the TP is so high, price would touch it a little far from now, so the trendline "b" would be much lower than this initial takeprofit, and that price of 215 could become a little less than total move, if you need clarification on that due to my bad engligh, i'll promptly answer).
total of 305/2 = 152.5 pips that with a total of 40 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.81
Risk/Reward trade banking 11,43%
--------------------------Page Three:
2nd Trade:
4h isn't getting the signal right there, but one tick before we are closing to zero, there
is a gapup and we are approaching the trendline "a" which now can be drawed.
if we go to 1h we also see that 89SMA is also there, and a red signal is already there.
Fore entry we could go to smaller timeframes, but this trade is also a very big risk reward, i'll do it that way, but with plenty of time i would have considered other variables.
Assuming to have bought that at the lowest lof of those small candles that forms an extended evening star, the SL price at line SL 2 would have been of 50 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line, 125 pips
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green, 240 pips
total of 365/2 = 182.5 pips totaling with a 50 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.65
Risk/Reward trade banking 10,35%
--------------------------Page Four:
3rd Trade:
4h Gave a CT signal, coming to 1h seems that price has broken down the "b" trendline, then up, then down, then up again (damn i am starting to talk like Phillip...).
that seems like a sHs signal, i decide to take the odds on.
Plus, there is Divergence...
buy at 1.4093 (the arrow marked candle close)
SL at -35 pips,
First Takeprofit at Bright Green line +70 pips, the TP line is a line that passes from two highs in the past 2 days or so, chart it and see it, it might be a resistance point, and afterall this is a countertrend trade...
Second Takeprofit is the dark green line. since i couldn't find any recent s/r line, i've made it 100 pips from the first TP line, remember the countertrade thing.
total of 70 pips for the first TP then for the other half it really depends on what your second trade strategy is...
tell me what you would have done here and what should have happened.
but assuming you were using Trailingstop only on countertrend trades, here you should still have banked another 20/30 pips on half lot (even with exagerately big 70 pips Trailingstop), as the price goes higher the first tp and then retraces back.
total of 90/2 = 45 pips totaling with a 35 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/1.5
Risk/Reward trade banking 4,5%
--------------------------Page Five:
4th Trade:
4h Gave a TC signal, 1h confirms it, but the price was just too uncertain at what to do at trendline "c", plus, for the first profit target i wuold have used the new blue trendline i've drawn, and the SL was just too big (close to 50/55) for the reward to be tempting.
this is a no go.
--------------------------Page Six:
5th Trade:
4h gave signal, if watching the 1h one could have entered at the red vertival bar and bank some pips, but i wouldn't, we have passed 89sma, a retracement seeking for future resistance could mess all up.
--------------------------Page Seven:
a more aggressive approach in 30 mins. for the 5th trade
the trend has lost it's power, it retest the 89sma, then goes straight down.
i know, the price broke the downmost blue trendline before, but at the close of that bar the price was still in the middle, with a long shadow... wasn't the right time there.
i suppose aggressive entry could be made at 17:00 candle 30 mins timeframe on 09/10 when a perfect TC also formed on MACD.
--------------------------Page Eight:
6th Trade:
4h gave signal, the price was coming down to the bottom purple trendline, possible support could be found.
on the 1h and 4h SL was too big here, but if you go down to aggressive mode ON
--------------------------Page Nine:
on 30Min it gives a nice RB signal, SL at 25 pips, 1st TP at 50 pips from the blue trendline drawn on the Image, 2nd tp never touched, and the second trade could very well be cut down with trailingstop
could be a 35 pips trade, over 1:1 R:R though!
That's all! could some1 comment on that? i understand it's a lot of reading, but...
and thank y Phillip, you introduced me at Price Action with a bit of advantage, the MACD...
Happy Trading!
jj
EU seemed pretty well to me and my charting in FXDD, actually too good, that i decided to do a bit of "polished" charting to let you all know what trade i would have taken!
Hope you like the effort i've put into this, and i hope you overcome that this is one of my
first posts
Happy trading!
--------------------------First Page, 4h View
--------------------------Page Two:
1st Trade:
In 4h we have a TC signal, in 1h we have an end shoulder, close to perfect round top forming, and a risk reward that could be very profitable, i'm taking the odds there.
We don't actually have trendline "a", but there is 89SMA, that could very well be considered resistance.
Sell @ 1.4517
SL @ SL 1 Line, 40 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line +90 pips (actually was 100 but lowered by 10 because it supposedly could came down the next tick)
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green line, 215 pips (i think if the TP is so high, price would touch it a little far from now, so the trendline "b" would be much lower than this initial takeprofit, and that price of 215 could become a little less than total move, if you need clarification on that due to my bad engligh, i'll promptly answer).
total of 305/2 = 152.5 pips that with a total of 40 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.81
Risk/Reward trade banking 11,43%
--------------------------Page Three:
2nd Trade:
4h isn't getting the signal right there, but one tick before we are closing to zero, there
is a gapup and we are approaching the trendline "a" which now can be drawed.
if we go to 1h we also see that 89SMA is also there, and a red signal is already there.
Fore entry we could go to smaller timeframes, but this trade is also a very big risk reward, i'll do it that way, but with plenty of time i would have considered other variables.
Assuming to have bought that at the lowest lof of those small candles that forms an extended evening star, the SL price at line SL 2 would have been of 50 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line, 125 pips
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green, 240 pips
total of 365/2 = 182.5 pips totaling with a 50 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.65
Risk/Reward trade banking 10,35%
--------------------------Page Four:
3rd Trade:
4h Gave a CT signal, coming to 1h seems that price has broken down the "b" trendline, then up, then down, then up again (damn i am starting to talk like Phillip...).
that seems like a sHs signal, i decide to take the odds on.
Plus, there is Divergence...
buy at 1.4093 (the arrow marked candle close)
SL at -35 pips,
First Takeprofit at Bright Green line +70 pips, the TP line is a line that passes from two highs in the past 2 days or so, chart it and see it, it might be a resistance point, and afterall this is a countertrend trade...
Second Takeprofit is the dark green line. since i couldn't find any recent s/r line, i've made it 100 pips from the first TP line, remember the countertrade thing.
total of 70 pips for the first TP then for the other half it really depends on what your second trade strategy is...
tell me what you would have done here and what should have happened.
but assuming you were using Trailingstop only on countertrend trades, here you should still have banked another 20/30 pips on half lot (even with exagerately big 70 pips Trailingstop), as the price goes higher the first tp and then retraces back.
total of 90/2 = 45 pips totaling with a 35 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/1.5
Risk/Reward trade banking 4,5%
--------------------------Page Five:
4th Trade:
4h Gave a TC signal, 1h confirms it, but the price was just too uncertain at what to do at trendline "c", plus, for the first profit target i wuold have used the new blue trendline i've drawn, and the SL was just too big (close to 50/55) for the reward to be tempting.
this is a no go.
--------------------------Page Six:
5th Trade:
4h gave signal, if watching the 1h one could have entered at the red vertival bar and bank some pips, but i wouldn't, we have passed 89sma, a retracement seeking for future resistance could mess all up.
--------------------------Page Seven:
a more aggressive approach in 30 mins. for the 5th trade
the trend has lost it's power, it retest the 89sma, then goes straight down.
i know, the price broke the downmost blue trendline before, but at the close of that bar the price was still in the middle, with a long shadow... wasn't the right time there.
i suppose aggressive entry could be made at 17:00 candle 30 mins timeframe on 09/10 when a perfect TC also formed on MACD.
--------------------------Page Eight:
6th Trade:
4h gave signal, the price was coming down to the bottom purple trendline, possible support could be found.
on the 1h and 4h SL was too big here, but if you go down to aggressive mode ON
--------------------------Page Nine:
on 30Min it gives a nice RB signal, SL at 25 pips, 1st TP at 50 pips from the blue trendline drawn on the Image, 2nd tp never touched, and the second trade could very well be cut down with trailingstop
could be a 35 pips trade, over 1:1 R:R though!
That's all! could some1 comment on that? i understand it's a lot of reading, but...
and thank y Phillip, you introduced me at Price Action with a bit of advantage, the MACD...
Happy Trading!
jj
- #16,964
- Sep 13, 2008 11:26am Sep 13, 2008 11:26am
- | Commercial User | Joined Nov 2006 | 2,223 Posts
Hi to all, just listened Philip mp3 file of the weekly wrapup, but i need to ask a few questions...
EU seemed pretty well to me and my charting in FXDD, actually too good, that i decided to do a bit of "polished" charting to let you all know what trade i would have taken!
Hope you like the effort i've put into this, and i hope you overcome that this is one of my
first posts
Happy trading!
--------------------------First Page, 4h View
--------------------------Page Two:
1st Trade:
In 4h we have a TC signal, in 1h we have an end shoulder, close to perfect round top forming, and a risk reward that could be very profitable, i'm taking the odds there.
We don't actually have trendline "a", but there is 89SMA, that could very well be considered resistance.
Sell @ 1.4517
SL @ SL 1 Line, 40 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line +90 pips (actually was 100 but lowered by 10 because it supposedly could came down the next tick)
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green line, 215 pips (i think if the TP is so high, price would touch it a little far from now, so the trendline "b" would be much lower than this initial takeprofit, and that price of 215 could become a little less than total move, if you need clarification on that due to my bad engligh, i'll promptly answer).
total of 305/2 = 152.5 pips that with a total of 40 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.81
Risk/Reward trade banking 11,43%
--------------------------Page Three:
2nd Trade:
4h isn't getting the signal right there, but one tick before we are closing to zero, there
is a gapup and we are approaching the trendline "a" which now can be drawed.
if we go to 1h we also see that 89SMA is also there, and a red signal is already there.
Fore entry we could go to smaller timeframes, but this trade is also a very big risk reward, i'll do it that way, but with plenty of time i would have considered other variables.
Assuming to have bought that at the lowest lof of those small candles that forms an extended evening star, the SL price at line SL 2 would have been of 50 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line, 125 pips
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green, 240 pips
total of 365/2 = 182.5 pips totaling with a 50 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.65
Risk/Reward trade banking 10,35%
--------------------------Page Four:
3rd Trade:
4h Gave a CT signal, coming to 1h seems that price has broken down the "b" trendline, then up, then down, then up again (damn i am starting to talk like Phillip...).
that seems like a sHs signal, i decide to take the odds on.
Plus, there is Divergence...
buy at 1.4093 (the arrow marked candle close)
SL at -35 pips,
First Takeprofit at Bright Green line +70 pips, the TP line is a line that passes from two highs in the past 2 days or so, chart it and see it, it might be a resistance point, and afterall this is a countertrend trade...
Second Takeprofit is the dark green line. since i couldn't find any recent s/r line, i've made it 100 pips from the first TP line, remember the countertrade thing.
total of 70 pips for the first TP then for the other half it really depends on what your second trade strategy is...
tell me what you would have done here and what should have happened.
but assuming you were using Trailingstop only on countertrend trades, here you should still have banked another 20/30 pips on half lot (even with exagerately big 70 pips Trailingstop), as the price goes higher the first tp and then retraces back.
total of 90/2 = 45 pips totaling with a 35 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/1.5
Risk/Reward trade banking 4,5%
--------------------------Page Five:
4th Trade:
4h Gave a TC signal, 1h confirms it, but the price was just too uncertain at what to do at trendline "c", plus, for the first profit target i wuold have used the new blue trendline i've drawn, and the SL was just too big (close to 50/55) for the reward to be tempting.
this is a no go.
--------------------------Page Six:
5th Trade:
4h gave signal, if watching the 1h one could have entered at the red vertival bar and bank some pips, but i wouldn't, we have passed 89sma, a retracement seeking for future resistance could mess all up.
--------------------------Page Seven:
a more aggressive approach in 30 mins. for the 5th trade
the trend has lost it's power, it retest the 89sma, then goes straight down.
i know, the price broke the downmost blue trendline before, but at the close of that bar the price was still in the middle, with a long shadow... wasn't the right time there.
i suppose aggressive entry could be made at 17:00 candle 30 mins timeframe on 09/10 when a perfect TC also formed on MACD.
--------------------------Page Eight:
6th Trade:
4h gave signal, the price was coming down to the bottom purple trendline, possible support could be found.
on the 1h and 4h SL was too big here, but if you go down to aggressive mode ON
--------------------------Page Nine:
on 30Min it gives a nice RB signal, SL at 25 pips, 1st TP at 50 pips from the blue trendline drawn on the Image, 2nd tp never touched, and the second trade could very well be cut down with trailingstop
could be a 35 pips trade, over 1:1 R:R though!
That's all! could some1 comment on that? i understand it's a lot of reading, but...
and thank y Phillip, you introduced me at Price Action with a bit of advantage, the MACD...
Happy Trading!
jj
- #16,965
- Sep 13, 2008 11:28am Sep 13, 2008 11:28am
- | Commercial User | Joined Nov 2006 | 2,223 Posts
These posts are gold.
I used the breakout strategy on the Pound yesterday, and made 190 pips!
This was a trade learned from listening to Phillip's MP3s.
- #16,966
- Edited 11:58am Sep 13, 2008 11:52am | Edited 11:58am
- | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Trader | 72 Posts
Thank you for your review, just wanted to add that i marked EVERY trade possible, ofcourse i couldn't be there all the time, i was just pointing every possible trade at about same points as your analysis just because i found out some differencies between 4hour signals of FXDD and your broker ones.
yes, i missed higher trendlines, i think the only one we could see at that point could very well be the bottom one at that turning that the currency made the last day... well after the last 6th trade... but yes, in my next pdf i'll draw these ones too...
now i am trying to master 4hr, the next step will be 5min.
Thanks again for your time,
jj
ps. my point of using 1hour to pinpoint s/r probabilities is because i am trying to lower SL as much as i can, probably that worked out well just in the last week, but doing so i can have a 25 sl on a 100 move instead of 50 sl of the same 100 move, thats a 4:1 (12%) against 2:1 (6%), i am taking the risk because if the trade is right i then could be wrong 2 times in a row that my profit is still up.
anyways i am testing on demo live for all october, let's just stick to the rules, follow the market, and see if there is some room for improvement
yes, i missed higher trendlines, i think the only one we could see at that point could very well be the bottom one at that turning that the currency made the last day... well after the last 6th trade... but yes, in my next pdf i'll draw these ones too...
now i am trying to master 4hr, the next step will be 5min.
Thanks again for your time,
jj
ps. my point of using 1hour to pinpoint s/r probabilities is because i am trying to lower SL as much as i can, probably that worked out well just in the last week, but doing so i can have a 25 sl on a 100 move instead of 50 sl of the same 100 move, thats a 4:1 (12%) against 2:1 (6%), i am taking the risk because if the trade is right i then could be wrong 2 times in a row that my profit is still up.
anyways i am testing on demo live for all october, let's just stick to the rules, follow the market, and see if there is some room for improvement
- #16,967
- Sep 13, 2008 12:08pm Sep 13, 2008 12:08pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Nov 2006 | 2,223 Posts
ps. my point of using 1hour to pinpoint s/r probabilities is because i am trying to lower SL as much as i can, probably that worked out well just in the last week, but doing so i can have a 25 sl on a 100 move instead of 50 sl of the same 100 move, thats a 4:1 (12%) against 2:1 (6%), i am taking the risk because if the trade is right i then could be wrong 2 times in a row that my profit is still up.
anyways i am testing on demo live for all october, let's just stick to the rules, follow the market, and see if there is some room for improvement[/quote]
That is good management. You will be successfull by consistantly using that approach as you may have 2 losses to one gain and still be breakeven at least.
anyways i am testing on demo live for all october, let's just stick to the rules, follow the market, and see if there is some room for improvement
[/quote]That is good management. You will be successfull by consistantly using that approach as you may have 2 losses to one gain and still be breakeven at least.
- #16,971
- Sep 14, 2008 4:20am Sep 14, 2008 4:20am
Hi to all, just listened Philip mp3 file of the weekly wrapup, but i need to ask a few questions...
EU seemed pretty well to me and my charting in FXDD, actually too good, that i decided to do a bit of "polished" charting to let you all know what trade i would have taken!
Hope you like the effort i've put into this, and i hope you overcome that this is one of my
first posts
Happy trading!
--------------------------First Page, 4h View
--------------------------Page Two:
1st Trade:
In 4h we have a TC signal, in 1h we have an end shoulder, close to perfect round top forming, and a risk reward that could be very profitable, i'm taking the odds there.
We don't actually have trendline "a", but there is 89SMA, that could very well be considered resistance.
Sell @ 1.4517
SL @ SL 1 Line, 40 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line +90 pips (actually was 100 but lowered by 10 because it supposedly could came down the next tick)
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green line, 215 pips (i think if the TP is so high, price would touch it a little far from now, so the trendline "b" would be much lower than this initial takeprofit, and that price of 215 could become a little less than total move, if you need clarification on that due to my bad engligh, i'll promptly answer).
total of 305/2 = 152.5 pips that with a total of 40 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.81
Risk/Reward trade banking 11,43%
--------------------------Page Three:
2nd Trade:
4h isn't getting the signal right there, but one tick before we are closing to zero, there
is a gapup and we are approaching the trendline "a" which now can be drawed.
if we go to 1h we also see that 89SMA is also there, and a red signal is already there.
Fore entry we could go to smaller timeframes, but this trade is also a very big risk reward, i'll do it that way, but with plenty of time i would have considered other variables.
Assuming to have bought that at the lowest lof of those small candles that forms an extended evening star, the SL price at line SL 2 would have been of 50 pips
First Takeprofit: Bright Green line, 125 pips
Second Takeprofit: Dark Green, 240 pips
total of 365/2 = 182.5 pips totaling with a 50 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/3.65
Risk/Reward trade banking 10,35%
--------------------------Page Four:
3rd Trade:
4h Gave a CT signal, coming to 1h seems that price has broken down the "b" trendline, then up, then down, then up again (damn i am starting to talk like Phillip...).
that seems like a sHs signal, i decide to take the odds on.
Plus, there is Divergence...
buy at 1.4093 (the arrow marked candle close)
SL at -35 pips,
First Takeprofit at Bright Green line +70 pips, the TP line is a line that passes from two highs in the past 2 days or so, chart it and see it, it might be a resistance point, and afterall this is a countertrend trade...
Second Takeprofit is the dark green line. since i couldn't find any recent s/r line, i've made it 100 pips from the first TP line, remember the countertrade thing.
total of 70 pips for the first TP then for the other half it really depends on what your second trade strategy is...
tell me what you would have done here and what should have happened.
but assuming you were using Trailingstop only on countertrend trades, here you should still have banked another 20/30 pips on half lot (even with exagerately big 70 pips Trailingstop), as the price goes higher the first tp and then retraces back.
total of 90/2 = 45 pips totaling with a 35 stoploss @ 3% makes this trade a 1/1.5
Risk/Reward trade banking 4,5%
--------------------------Page Five:
4th Trade:
4h Gave a TC signal, 1h confirms it, but the price was just too uncertain at what to do at trendline "c", plus, for the first profit target i wuold have used the new blue trendline i've drawn, and the SL was just too big (close to 50/55) for the reward to be tempting.
this is a no go.
--------------------------Page Six:
5th Trade:
4h gave signal, if watching the 1h one could have entered at the red vertival bar and bank some pips, but i wouldn't, we have passed 89sma, a retracement seeking for future resistance could mess all up.
--------------------------Page Seven:
a more aggressive approach in 30 mins. for the 5th trade
the trend has lost it's power, it retest the 89sma, then goes straight down.
i know, the price broke the downmost blue trendline before, but at the close of that bar the price was still in the middle, with a long shadow... wasn't the right time there.
i suppose aggressive entry could be made at 17:00 candle 30 mins timeframe on 09/10 when a perfect TC also formed on MACD.
--------------------------Page Eight:
6th Trade:
4h gave signal, the price was coming down to the bottom purple trendline, possible support could be found.
on the 1h and 4h SL was too big here, but if you go down to aggressive mode ON
--------------------------Page Nine:
on 30Min it gives a nice RB signal, SL at 25 pips, 1st TP at 50 pips from the blue trendline drawn on the Image, 2nd tp never touched, and the second trade could very well be cut down with trailingstop
could be a 35 pips trade, over 1:1 R:R though!
That's all! could some1 comment on that? i understand it's a lot of reading, but...
and thank y Phillip, you introduced me at Price Action with a bit of advantage, the MACD...
Happy Trading!
jj
If you would enter in the first hour of the 4 hour candle, without the TC pattern then wouldnt it be more of a random trade? You know "1 hour shows nice MACD pattern and I THINK the 4 hour will develope a TC pattern"
This is not to critisise you, i really like the effort you put into that report and i hope to see more of it on this thread.
- #16,972
- Edited 5:42am Sep 14, 2008 5:10am | Edited 5:42am
- | Commercial User | Joined Nov 2006 | 2,223 Posts
- #16,979
- Sep 14, 2008 8:10pm Sep 14, 2008 8:10pm
- | Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Cruising The Outer Rim... | 2,175 Posts
