South Africa - rock RAND roll

Hi Gull
Interesting... I never occurred to me that people would trade that, but I guess on the high interest ZAR it makes sense. I am going to watch with 'interest' to see price action later.

I use Oanda and they do not charge triple on Wednesday, but they do charge over the weekend. They also charge interest for the time you have the position open not just at the end of the day - which seems a much more logical way of doing it to me.

cheers
Brendon

The market is influenced by many things the ZAR is high on the carry trade list what with the huge interest rate diff but you can't just buy and pray or you are sure to get shafted by some seriously bad weakening. Money Man is the key to this one even more so than others as it is a complex currency what you see is not what you get.

I have been buying dollars steadily against it since 6.50 and will continue to do so as the long term trend suggests that it is still going to weaken a whole lot more in the weeks and months to come and any strength I view as excellent opportunities to buy more dollars.

Africa is not for Sissies

Yes Africa its market and the ZAR are all prone to being eaten alive if not careful.

I'm buying more dollars ahead of the fed and non farm.

On Monday lots of South Africans will again be buying euros and pounds while overlooking the devalued USD. Weak is relative and when the backlash comes for the ZAR it will be swift.

Hey there guys,

Still here just being busy.

Looking at todays RMB' currency research gave me a laugh, they also confused as hell why the ZAR is getting stronger. This week with the other c.banks news, might give some new turns.

A whole day at 7-20 I had to buy more lol.

The big move is comming

Hey there Gull,

I have a long order for USDZAR sitting at 7.4685 on the 4hourly

Was in for a shortly lived long yesterday but got out on the dip to .3689

Just another look at the USDZAR with some chartographic perversion.

Attached is a chart of a 4HR USDZAR, the MA's are 62 (a funky magenta) and 100 (white), as we can see the first pull back became a good signal to short again once it showed momentum downwards... once again there is a pull back now with a very similar pattern just before entering the gap between 100 and 62.

So... could this be a breakup or could simply be a continuation further down to a stronger support? Tune in next week, as then I'm sure we'll have an idea.

Looks like the carry got the rap for keeping the ZAR strong contrary to all known fundamentals. Yesterday the carry boys closed some of those ZAR longs and if it weakens more will do the same. Crash Boom Bang to quote Roxette. http://www.fin24.com

Nice article, thanks Gull.

Going with RMB' note, yesterday around R6.9 billion left SA, hence the drop in the ZAR. Today was wierd though, it hardly moved anywhere until late afternoon when it popped up, currently sitting around 7.4771, RSI in the high 60's with MACD still showing viagra... still though, it looks similar to my chart above. Will need to clearly move high than 7.50 atleast to get abit more energy to carry on up I think.

Saying that... I'm still in the long since 7.4685, in the next hour moving SL to .4589 most likely.

Thar she blows.

The swap factor seems to pale in comparison when this beast gets rumbling or should I say sprinting along.

Took another long at 7.8431 on the hourly, a tight stop at .7798

Rates were kept on hold today as "expected" they say.

Thanks for this thread. Now I know where I can come to get caught up to date with this pair. Quick question though - what MT4 broker are you guys using for charting (free of course)? I'm using WHC but there's a candle with a huge wick that distorts my candles. Any info is much appreciated!

try that

Hi mate, try fxpro site, they the new guys that took over north finance, a lot of people use them.

Cheers. Also the RMB site someone posted earlier has very good currency analysis for the Rand. I'll get my charts updated over the weekend and see what I come up with. From reading all the information it certainly seems like shorting the Rand is the way to go, but we just need to pick entries carefully due to the volatility. Holding long USD.ZAR positions would amount to terrible swaps, so I'll need to think about strat's over the weekend. Appreciate this great info though guys!

haha yeah that was me too that mentioned RMB, they are my first point of call on the Rand and the only ones that seem to have a good reporting of it from the investment bank side. Danske Bank also does it but they touch on it lightly....still, overall their analysis is very good, also worth a look.

Anyone that has access to SABC 2 (a tv station in SA) is broadcasting a current affairs program right now till 7:30pm (Central African Time) with Zuma in it. Followed by the Presidents speech.

This will help give crucial info on how the markets will act tomorrow / when trading opens on ZAR pairs.

Sorry for the late announcement, only heard about it right now.

Will also post some more info later for those overseas.

Just a quick addition, in case you have been out of touch with SA politics, the SA President is about to be taken out of office before the end of his term, conditions are unclear whether he will go down fighting or not. Word is also that many ministers will have to leave office if Mbheki leaves ahead of time and there's aren't any more ministers to replace the leaving ministers until another national election, so this will effect markets massively, on top of that, give RMB's research another read, Fridays notes.

South African President, Mbeki, announced his resignation at 7:30pm CAT.

Keep an eye on tomorrows ZAR pairs.

According to RMB, over 70 billion has left SA this month so far and that the ZAR is in for a drop of note.

You've been warned

Btw, an "acting president" comes into play now for the next 30 days before the ANC selects a new president to run the country, which would be Zuma most likely. The acting president is presumed to be a person I mentioned in the beginning of this thread, can't remember his name right now but he has a hard history ie. was a member of the ANC youth league (which is a group that is a violent arm which recently claimed they would "kill for Zuma" for him to get into power) amongst other positions in his background like trade unions etc.

It's heating up down south and it's not global warming.