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South Africa info 2 replies

Attachments: South Africa - rock RAND roll
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South Africa - rock RAND roll

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  • First Post: Edited 5:53pm Feb 21, 2008 11:52am | Edited 5:53pm
Well, if you couldn't guess it from the childish title, this thread will be used to post about the South African Rand. At least by me when I feel like it. There are several esteemed members of this forum from South Africa, so any input from you folks would likely be quite a bit more valuable than my semi-researched blabberings. Lets get started?

The reason why I first even bothered to notice this currency was because of the interest rate. Their rates are at high levels compared with many of the currencies out there, thus making their carry appeal obvious. Recent history has shown the Rand hit close to 18 month highs against the USD and has now fallen sharply to very near 4 1/2 year lows against the USD. This will be accomplished if it crosses above R8.0000 per $1.00. This rate change has become intereting to follow, because the entire world is very negative USD, yet the Dollar is putting up a suprising fight in the first quarter of 2008, especially against some more "exotic" currencies. This obviously includes the Rand. Why the sharp fall?

Well, the best I can figure it, at least based upon several readings, is that South Africa is undergoing 1) Power surges, which is undermining their entire mining efforts that the country heavily relies upon. 2) The government in South Africa is now allowing their banks, investment firms and other companies to "invest abroad" at a greater level.

**

Quoting fsiltd
1)They aren't surges, they are complete shutdowns/blackouts. Some lasting between 2-4 hours. And I mean everything, businesses, hospitals, traffic-lights, MINES, you name it, it goes down. Supposedly scheduled, although, I'm yet to see SA stick to a schedule on anything.
2)They've always invested abroad, whether on the record or off
.
** Thank you for the input, this is the knowledge simple articles never tell. I appreciate it.

Obviously there will be other reasons, I have read about some political problems, though from the readings, these seem to be the big two. The second reason appears to be the more glaring of the two issues. Although, if the lights can't be turned back on, that may turn out to be a larger issue than I believe it is.

Just for note, although the Rand has moved from a high of around 14.0000 to close to 8.0000 now in just six years of time, my bias is still that the Rand will gain. I do not believe that gain is being corrected, just merely a change of environment is shaking things up. Although my bias to begin would be short USD/ZAR, pending on continuing trends, there may be cause for a long XXX/ZAR position. I posted a weekly chart from MT4 showing the past ten years.

All are welcome to post about the country itself or the ZAR currency specifically. Since I trade on larger timeframes, learning about the country of South Africa may help to pass the time. Have a good day,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
I'm originally from South Africa, does that count? lol

There's another reason that also definitely will affect South Africa in the long term and most likely will have a ripple effect. That is... the possibility of Jacob Zuma becoming the next president. I heard he's now the leader of the ANC (African National Congress) so he stands a very good chance... although here's the bad part. He has allegations against him regarding corruption. Now... I don't know about the other South Africans who are on here but surely that can't be good?


zoopy
Quote
Well, the best I can figure it, at least based upon several readings, is that South Africa is undergoing 1) Power surges, which is undermining their entire mining efforts that the country heavily relies upon. 2) The government in South Africa is now allowing their banks, investment firms and other companies to "invest abroad".
1)They aren't surges, they are complete shutdowns/blackouts. Some lasting between 2-4 hours. And I mean everything, businesses, hospitals, traffic-lights, MINES, you name it, it goes down. Supposedly scheduled, although, I'm yet to see SA stick to a schedule on anything.
2)They've always invested abroad, whether on the record or off

Quote
He has allegations against him regarding corruption.
Understatement of the century. But I'm not getting into politics on here.

Another thing that is going to move the currency longer term {probably south}

Quote
South Africa to Tax Power Users, Fund Eskom to Ease Outages
By Nasreen Seria and Mike Cohen
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa will introduce a 10 percent tax on electricity and give the state-owned power utility a 60 billion rand ($7.7 billion) loan to help build power plants to ease shortages that shut gold and platinum mines.
The tax of 2 cents per kilowatt hour will generate 2 billion rand in the year through March 2009 and 4 billion rand the following year, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said in his budget speech in Parliament in Cape Town today.
Eskom Holdings Ltd., which supplies 95 percent of South Africa's power, hasn't kept pace with demand as economic growth expanded at its fastest pace in 25 years in 2006 and the government delayed plans to build power plants. About 3.5 million homes have been connected to the electricity grid since the end of white-minority rule in 1994.
``Over the next few years, while new power stations are being built and tariffs are steadily increased and revised to encourage efficient electricity use, Eskom's balance sheet will be under some stress,'' Manuel said. ``We would not be supporting these investments if we were not confident that they are economically and financially viable.''
Eskom plans to spend about 343 billion rand over the next five years, the Treasury said today, on power plants to almost double generating capacity of about 41,500 megawatts. Standard & Poor's put Eskom's BBB+ foreign currency credit rating on ``negative watch'' on Jan. 11, saying the cost of the expansion may exceed estimates.
Raising Prices
Eskom was given permission by the country's energy regulator last year to raise average tariffs by 14.2 percent in 2008, less than the 18.7 percent the company requested.
Tariffs were ``steadily reduced in real terms during the 1980s and 1990s, so that electricity prices in South Africa are now far lower than in any other comparable country, and well below full economic cost,'' Manuel said. ``The tariff structure is now too low to support the required borrowing.''
Mines owned by Anglo Platinum Holdings Ltd., the world's largest platinum producer, and other companies were shut for five days from Jan. 25 because Eskom couldn't guarantee adequate supplies. The mining companies and other large industrial power users were asked by Eskom to cut electricity consumption by 10 percent, undermining output.
The government will give Eskom 20 billion rand over the next three years, paid out of the Treasury's contingency reserves, with the remaining 40 billion rand paid in the following two years. The utility must repay the money over the next 20 years, Andrew Donaldson, the Treasury's deputy director general said in Cape Town.
The funding ``is to enable Eskom to borrow what it needs on the capital market,'' Donaldson said.
Generation Plants
About 73 percent of Eskom's capital spending will be spent on expanding generation, 12 percent on transmission and 10 percent on distribution, according to the budget document. Eskom will spend 16.1 billion rand to return the mothballed plants of Camden, Grootvlei and Komati back to service, increasing generating capacity by 3,677 megawatts by 2011.
The Medupi coal-fired plant in the north east, expected to come on line in 2012, will cost 85.6 billion rand, while the Bravo plant, also in the north east, will cost 84.8 billion rand, the Treasury said. The gas turbine projects at Ankerlig and Gourikwa will raise power supply by 1,036 megawatts by the middle of 2009.
Eskom is also planning to strengthen the electricity grid in the Western Cape by building new lines from Majuba to Kwazulu Natal and integrating new power plants into the transmission network.
In case you're wondering why I have an opinion.
I'm ex SA too.
Carpe Divitiae
Quoting zoopy
I'm originally from South Africa, does that count? lol
Hey, don't minimze yourself ... of course it counts. I have been out of the U.S. just once in my life, yet I do all I can to have opinions about other countries and their economies.

Quoting zoopy
There's another reason that also definitely will affect South Africa in the long term and most likely will have a ripple effect. That is... the possibility of Jacob Zuma becoming the next president. I heard he's now the leader of the ANC (African National Congress) so he stands a very good chance... although here's the bad part. He has allegations against him regarding corruption. Now... I don't know about the other South Africans who are on here but surely that can't be good?
I suppose the question to be asked would be "Would Jacob Zuma becoming President have a heavy infringement upon the economic factors that drive the currency? Obviously there is speculation involved, on everyones part, though all that cares to me is will the Rand be weaker or stronger than the Dollar

Thanks for the input, add more later if you desire.

Quoting fsiltd
2)They've always invested abroad, whether on the record or off
Yes, with the lesser restrictions, now they can invest even more off the record.

Quoting fsiltd
In case you're wondering why I have an opinion.
I'm ex SA too.
And of course your opinion will always be welcome.


**************

As for the trading, I lost a few bucks on this pair going back to the fairly substantial rally occuring over the dates 2/19 - 2/20. I am now short again, though not quite as optomistic. Having read into further what earlier contributors of this thread had talked about, I am a tad on edge. The Dollar has been stronger against just a couple currencies around the globe of late, the Rand being one of them. This added to the reality that the Rand has been flat to down for three years now ... perhaps the future is not how I perceive? Nevertheless, technicals, rate differential and general negativity toward the U.S. Dollar on the long term have me shorting the USD/ZAR pair.

Have a good day.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
The following report was taken from local South African newspaper, the Sunday Herald. I thought it might be of interest to readers here.



AFTER bathing in the warm, fuzzy glow of the Mandela years, South Africans today are deeply demoralised people. The lights are going out in homes, mines, factories and shopping malls as the national power authority, Eskom - suffering from mismanagement, lack of foresight, a failure to maintain power stations and a flight of skilled engineers to other countries - implements rolling power cuts that plunge towns and cities into daily chaos.
Major industrial projects are on hold. The only healthy enterprise now worth being involved in is the sale of small diesel generators to powerless households but even this business has run out of supplies and spare parts from China.
The currency, the rand, has entered freefall. Crime, much of it gratuitously violent, is rampant, and the national police chief faces trial for corruption and defeating the ends of justice as a result of his alleged deals with a local mafia kingpin and dealer in hard drugs.
Newly elected African National Congress (ANC) leader Jacob Zuma, the state president-in-waiting, narrowly escaped being jailed for raping an HIV-positive woman last year, and faces trial later this year for soliciting and accepting bribes in connection with South Africa's shady multi-billion-pound arms deal with British, German and French weapons manufacturers.
One local newspaper columnist suggests that Zuma has done for South Africa's international image what Borat has done for Kazakhstan. ANC leaders in 2008 still speak in the spiritually dead jargon they learned in exile in pre-1989 Moscow, East Berlin and Sofia while promiscuously embracing capitalist icons - Mercedes 4x4s, Hugo Boss suits, Bruno Magli shoes and Louis Vuitton bags which they swing, packed with money passed to them under countless tables - as they wing their way to their houses in the south of France.
It all adds up to a hydra-headed crisis of huge proportions - a perfect storm as the Rainbow Nation slides off the end of the rainbow and descends in the direction of the massed ranks of failed African states. Eskom has warned foreign investors with millions to sink into big industrial and mining projects: we don't want you here until at least 2013, when new power stations will be built.
In the first month of this year, the rand fell 12% against the world's major currencies and foreign investors sold off more than £600 million worth of South African stocks, the biggest sell-off for more than seven years.
"There will be further outflows this month, because there won't be any news that will convince investors the local growth picture is going to change for the better," said Rudi van der Merwe, a fund manager at South Africa's Standard Bank.
Commenting on the massive power cuts, Trevor Gaunt, professor of electrical engineering at the University of Cape Town, who warned the government eight years ago of the impending crisis, said: "The damage is huge, and now South Africa looks just like the rest of Africa. Maybe it will take 20 years to recover."
The power cuts have hit the country's platinum, gold, manganese and high-quality export coal mines particularly hard, with no production on some days and only 40% to 60% on others.
"The shutdown of the mining industry is an extraordinary, unprecedented event," said Anton Eberhard, a leading energy expert and professor of business studies at the University of Cape Town.
"That's a powerful message, massively damaging to South Africa's reputation for new investment. Our country was built on the mines."
To examine how the country, widely hailed as Africa's last best chance, arrived at this parlous state, the particular troubles engulfing the Scorpions (the popular name of the National Prosecuting Authority) offers a useful starting point.
The elite unit, modelled on America's FBI and operating in close co-operation with Britain's Serious Fraud Office (SFO), is one of the big successes of post-apartheid South Africa. An independent institution, separate from the slipshod South African Police Service, the Scorpions enjoy massive public support.
The unit's edict is to focus on people "who commit and profit from organised crime", and it has been hugely successful in carrying out its mandate. It has pursued and pinned down thousands of high-profile and complex networks of national and international corporate and public fraudsters.
Drug kingpins, smugglers and racketeers have felt the Scorpions' sting. A major gang that smuggle platinum, South Africa's biggest foreign exchange earner, to a corrupt English smelting plant has been bust as the result of a huge joint operation between the SFO and the Scorpions. But the Scorpions, whose top men were trained by Scotland Yard, have been too successful for their own good.
The ANC government never anticipated the crack crimebusters would take their constitutional independence seriously and investigate the top ranks of the former liberation movement itself.
The Scorpions have probed into, and successfully prosecuted, ANC MPs who falsified their parliamentary expenses. They secured a jail sentence for the ANC's chief whip, who took bribes from the German weapons manufacturer that sold frigates and submarines to the South African Defence Force. They sent to jail for 15 years a businessman who paid hundreds of bribes to then state vice-president Jacob Zuma in connection with the arms deal. Zuma was found by the judge to have a corrupt relationship with the businessman, and now the Scorpions have charged Zuma himself with fraud, corruption, tax evasion, racketeering and defeating the ends of justice. His trial will begin in August.
The Scorpions last month charged Jackie Selebi, the national police chief, a close friend of state president Thabo Mbeki, with corruption and defeating the ends of justice. Commissioner Selebi, who infamously called a white police sergeant a "f***ing chimpanzee" when she failed to recognise him during an unannounced visit to her Pretoria station, has stepped down pending his trial.
But now both wings of the venomously divided ANC - ANC-Mbeki and ANC-Zuma - want the Scorpions crushed, ideally by June this year. The message this will send to the outside world is that South Africa's rulers want only certain categories of crime investigated, while leaving government ministers and other politicians free to stuff their already heavily lined pockets.
No good reason for emasculating the Scorpions has been put forward. "That's because there isn't one," said Peter Bruce, editor of the influential Business Day, South Africa's equivalent of, and part-owned by, The Financial Times, in his weekly column.
"The Scorpions are being killed off because they investigate too much corruption that involves ANC leaders. It is as simple and ugly as that," he added.
The demise of the Scorpions can only exacerbate South Africa's out-of-control crime situation, ranked for its scale and violence only behind Colombia. Everyone has friends and acquaintances who have had guns held to their heads by gangsters, who also blow up ATM machines and hijack security trucks, sawing off their roofs to get at the cash.
In the past few days my next-door neighbour, John Matshikiza, a distinguished actor who trained at the Royal Shakespeare Company and is the son of the composer of the South African musical King Kong, had been violently attacked, and friends visiting from Zimbabwe had their car stolen outside my front window in broad daylight.
My friends flew home to Zimbabwe without their car and the tinned food supplies they had bought to help withstand their country's dire political and food crisis and 27,000% inflation. Matshikiza, a former member of the Glasgow Citizens Theatre company, was held up by three gunmen as he drove his car into his garage late at night. He gave them his car keys, wallet, cellphone and luxury watch and begged them not to harm his partner, who was inside the house.
As one gunman drove the car away, the other two beat Matshikiza unconscious with broken bottles, and now his head is so comprehensively stitched that it looks like a map of the London Underground.
These assaults were personal, but mild compared with much commonplace crime.
Last week, for example, 18-year-old Razelle Botha, who passed all her A-levels with marks of more than 90% and was about to train as a doctor, returned home with her father, Professor Willem Botha, founder of the geophysics department at the University of Pretoria, from buying pizzas for the family. Inside the house, armed gunmen confronted them. They shot Professor Botha in the leg and pumped bullets into Razelle.
One severed her spine. Now she is fighting for her life and will never walk again, and may never become a doctor. The gunmen stole a laptop computer and a camera.
Feeding the perfect storm are the two centres of ANC power in the country at the moment. On the one hand, there is the ANC in parliament, led by President Mbeki, who last Friday gave a state-of-the-nation address and apologised to the country for the power crisis.
Mbeki made only the briefest of mentions of the national Aids crisis, with more than six million people HIV-positive. He did not address the Scorpions crisis. The collapsing public hospital system, under his eccentric health minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, an alcoholic who recently jumped the public queue for a liver transplant, received no attention. And the name Jacob Zuma did not pass his lips.
Last December Mbeki and Zuma stood against each other for the leadership of the ANC at the party's five-yearly electoral congress. Mbeki, who cannot stand again as state president beyond next year's parliamentary and presidential elections, hoped to remain the power behind the throne of a new state president of his choosing.
Zuma, a Zulu populist with some 20 children by various wives and mistresses, hoped to prove that last year's rape case, and the trial he faces this year for corruption and other charges, were part of a plot by Mbeki to use state institutions to discredit him. Mbeki assumed that the notion of Zuma assuming next year the mantle worn by Nelson Mandela as South Africa's first black state president would be so appalling to delegates, a deeply sad and precipitous decline, that his own re-election as ANC leader was a shoo-in.
But Mbeki completely miscalculated his own unpopularity - his perceived arrogance, failure to solve health and crime problems, his failure to deliver to the poor - and he lost. Now Zuma insists that he is the leader of the country and ANC MPs in parliament must take its orders from him, while Mbeki soldiers on until next year as state president, ordering MPs to toe his line.
Greatly understated, it is a mess. Its scale will be dramatically illustrated if South Africa's hosting of the 2010 World Cup is withdrawn by Fifa, the world football body.
Already South African premier league football evening games are being played after midnight because power for floodlights cannot be guaranteed before that time. Justice Malala, one of the country's top newspaper columnists, has called on Fifa to end the agony quickly.
"I don't want South Africa to host the football World Cup because there is no culture of responsibility in this country," he wrote in Johannesburg's bestselling Sunday Times.
"The most outrageous behaviour and incompetence is glossed over. No-one is fired. I have had enough of this nonsense, of keeping quiet and ignoring the fact that the train is about to run us over.
"It is increasingly clear that our leaders are incapable of making a success of it. Scrap the thing and give it to Australia, Germany or whoever will spare us the ignominy of watching things fall apart here - football tourists being held up and shot, the lights going out, while our politicians tell us everything is all right."
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
Dutch Angel,

Thank you for the article. Yes, I did find it interesting.

By the way, the trade I mentioned in my previous post ... I got out of half at BE, the other is drawn down a bit. Just thought I would update that.

Thanks again for the contribution.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
Quoting StockKJay
Dutch Angel,

Thank you for the article. Yes, I did find it interesting.

By the way, the trade I mentioned in my previous post ... I got out of half at BE, the other is drawn down a bit. Just thought I would update that.

Thanks again for the contribution.
StockKJay

How is the trade doing now? Just curious.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
Quoting DutchAngel
StockKJay

How is the trade doing now? Just curious.

Dutch,

I am sorry about my tardiness. To be honest, I never got out of the other half. I don't trade with leverage, at least I treat my position sizes that way, so I figured I would hold onto the small trade through any possible future drawdown. Once I decided that .. I didn't pay too much attention to it, nor this thread . It is very close to breakeven at this point now. Though the drawdown was a bit distasteful.

Update:

Well, after an incredible upward run for the pair, one that I must admit I didn't see coming at all, things have settled down a bit. Looking back many years, one could say that this is still a depreciating currency (Rand against Dollar). One could look at the long-term trend and suggest that the past few years have been nothing more than a long retrace in that trend before the continuing upward. However, that wont stop me from betting against the USD for an exotic and high yielding currency. I am near a sell signal on my weekly graph. The last one like this that occurred was back in mid 2001. I didn't take that one .. obviously .

I don’t normally trade off the weekly, though I think I will go ahead and take this trade. If the confirmation comes, it will be at week close and should be placed next Monday morning. I will post the specifics here. It certainly isn’t for large positions, as the stop will be 8.0070.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
Glad to hear that you are nearly at breakeven. Wish you well with your Rand trades. Are you earning positive or neg swap on ur deal?
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
Wow

A lot of negativity here. I'm a South African and although the country has issues, it also has a bright future if we can overcome our hurdles. I'm not part of the previously disadvantaged group (if you understand what I mean), but I'm proud of my country. I do not think the problems in South Africa are unique.

My honest opinion the last few months is that maybe Zuma will fo a better job than Mbeki. At least he has an opinion on issues and he has a tendency to surround himself with knowledgeable advisors.

Anyway, just my 2 cents (of Rands).

farimir
Quoting DutchAngel
Glad to hear that you are nearly at breakeven. Wish you well with your Rand trades. Are you earning positive or neg swap on ur deal?
It is a postive swap. 7.25% currently through Oanda.

Quoting farimir
Wow

A lot of negativity here. I'm a South African and although the country has issues, it also has a bright future if we can overcome our hurdles. I'm not part of the previously disadvantaged group (if you understand what I mean), but I'm proud of my country. I do not think the problems in South Africa are unique.

My honest opinion the last few months is that maybe Zuma will fo a better job than Mbeki. At least he has an opinion on issues and he has a tendency to surround himself with knowledgeable advisors.

Anyway, just my 2 cents (of Rands).

farimir
I hope I didn't sound too negative. I also don't wish for this thread to seemingly gain that perception. All I really know about any country outside of the U.S. is what I read online and what I learn by networking with individuals through FF.

Wish you the best and lets hope for a bullish Rand (if you are short the pair)
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
hey all. i am based in JHB. SA. I,m not an economist that,s why the question. In SA. the reserve bank has chosen to target rising inflation by raising intrest rates it is now 15% prime could even go higher, how excactly does this policy bring down inflation (cost of consumer goods) ? at the cost of squeazing the consumer so hard they can,t pay for their homes ,cars, etc.which creates another economical problem for the country. yet in the USA. they adopt the excact opposite policy lowering intrest rates. Can someone enlighten me? thanks.
The US is trying to stop a housing market that is in free fall (by dropping rates they make it easier for people to buy or keep their home((in theory anyway)))and jumpstart the economy with cheap money.
thanks bro. my question realy is how excactly does rising intrest rates bring down inflation? the cost of goods are what they are. how do you bring them down by increasing the intrest rate to borrow money.
Quoting Brentrading
thanks bro. my question realy is how excactly does rising intrest rates bring down inflation? the cost of goods are what they are. how do you bring them down by increasing the intrest rate to borrow money.
Brentrading

We getting OT here, but in theory it works as follows. Rising interest rates are supposed to curb spending. Less money in circulation is supposed to lower inflation. At least that is my understanding of it.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
Quoting Brentrading
thanks bro. my question realy is how excactly does rising intrest rates bring down inflation? the cost of goods are what they are. how do you bring them down by increasing the intrest rate to borrow money.
Brent Trading,

Well, in theory, it is to reduce the demand. When demand is lowered, in turn prices will slowly subside. It is a process I suppose. It may be too simple to state that "the cost of goods are what they are". As every country has their own markup, or markdown for that matter, on given products as well as, and perhaps more importantly, services.

If the central bank of South Africa raises its rates, making it harder for the individual banks to borrow money, it will also make it more difficult for businesses to take out large loans and pay for products and services. Products and services that they could pay for using borrowed funds in a far simpler fashion if the rates were lower. This in turn will, again in theory, lower the inflated competition (as it is based on borrowed money). This is supposed to also help the individual, though their wages will be lower just as the demand will be. Again, in the "new" world economy, it may be far more difficult than to just apply the same old theories to fix economic problems.

For another view, you could check out the chosen response from this link: http://answers.yahoo.com/question/in...4211755AAcUT9d
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
much appreciated stockKjay
Talking about the ZAR. This currency is heavily effected by fundamentals(news) however small, especially negative news. thats why you have to keep your ear to the ground concerning South Africa and its bordering countries like Zimbabwe, the outcome of their election (the recount) is supposed to be announced today. i,ll be watching the news tonight for this one.
I have a question i hope someone can answer. how liquid is the USD/ZAR pair, or how would one find out how liquid this pair is? my question is based on the broker being able to fill orders quickly wether entry orders or market orders especialy markert orders. I know on the very liquid pairs like GBP/USD a good broker can fill markert orders almost instantly. Again my question is how do i find out how liquid an excotic currency is compared to the majors. Is there a website that gives a trading volume of any particular pair over a given period? I know there are very knowlegeable people on this forum i hope someone can help. I know there can be a difference between filling demo orders and live orders and also the size of the order can affect the speed of a market oder being filled.

all the best to everyone.
It depends on your broker? Seriously though not many trade it, brokers that is. Unless you trading small and long when it runs it runs. Just don't let 1500 pips in a day wipe you out. Slippage of 300 or over weekends when you are not able to close it can dive. THIS IS THE south AFRICAN "ZAR" we are talking about? I think that the 20% it looses a year to other currencies makes it a great play against the recovering usd as it is way behind the losses to the euro and the rest. The credit crunch is only just starting to hit and the figures are turning sour.
Timing is everything
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