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New Mouteki Method...

  • #561
  • Sep 12, 2008 3:05pm Sep 12, 2008 3:05pm
Thanks Greywolf238 and Peikko for addressing my problem.

Herty
  • #562
  • Sep 12, 2008 3:13pm Sep 12, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting Brunite
Give a man a fish.....feed him for a day.

Teach a man to fish....feed him for a lifetime.

Friend; here's how to fish:

1) Read thread
2) Watch videos as they are introduced.
3) Continue to read thread.
4) Test.
5) Test some more.
6) Come back and ask any SPECIFIC question you have....many fine folks who will help you with that.

Not sure there are many that are going to spend THEIR time to put into writing what is discussed over the course of 10-11-12 videos. Of course....I could be wrong and maybe someone will do just that. Of course.....then you don't know for sure if THEIR understanding, which they gave to you, is the CORRECT application of what is shown. Of couse.....you can bypass this particular dilemma by going to what I mentioned earlier.....and......

1) Read thread
2) Watch videos as they are introduced.
3) Continue to read thread.
4) Test.
5) Test some more.
6) Come back and ask any SPECIFIC question you have....many fine folks who will help you with that.

P.S. I'm sure many will view it that way but this is not meant sarcastically. Just found that learning to fish is better than getting handed fish.....
I could'nt say that better myself.
Experience can be takin anywhere with you.
  • #563
  • Sep 12, 2008 3:46pm Sep 12, 2008 3:46pm
Current set up that i see for a short on the EUR/CHF with resistance at the 50% level. I'm wondering if it will hit the 233 fibo sequence level then retrace south ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur chf.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #564
  • Sep 12, 2008 3:50pm Sep 12, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting TimeFreedom
@ OzzieDave,

I hate to ask, but can you share your TSR Daily Range indicator?

Thanks in advance,

TimeFreedom
No Worries...TF,

Here it is.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Daily Range Calculator.mq4   8 KB | 466 downloads
  • #565
  • Edited 4:43pm Sep 12, 2008 4:21pm | Edited 4:43pm
Hi Every one,

Just to finish off what I've been showing about the EUR chart. As you can see the EUR has retraced back down to the 38.2 retracement level (1.4032) of the last swing high. So combine this with the fact that price has taken out the 233 fib zone it would seem logical that we're headed to the 377 fib zone. Now take a look at how many confluences we find within a few pips of the 377 fib zone, we have the 100 expansion level of the last swing high (orange dotted line), and a very strong resistance level identified from the daily chart (yellow line). Oddly enough, if you remember in Mouteki's early videos he analysised the EUR and started the zero point from 1.4307 looking at the down trend move. If you draw a fib retracement from point zero 1.4307 to the current swing low @ 1.3879 you will see that the 38.2 retracement of the original down move is at 1.4270 and the 610 Fib zone from the down move is at 1.4297. Is that freaky or what? In my last few posts what I was atempting to show every one was that you can also use the fib zones and retracements to identify that the rettarcement from the 987 fib zone back to the 610 fib zone is underway. Keep in mind that the 987 fib zone is @ 1.3920 and price turned around and started the up move @1.3879.

So based on my analysis I would say that if the original 610 Fib zone from the down move holds we would be headed back down to the 1597 fib zone. Keep in mind that price may retrace higher than the 610 fib zone of the last down move and then turn and resume the down move. I may be all wrong but there is a good chance thet price may move up to the 377 fib zone of the down move @ 1.4530...only time will tell.

I think this is very powerful tool if you get your head wrapped around the concept.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur analysis t40.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur analysis t41.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #566
  • Sep 12, 2008 4:59pm Sep 12, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting Fx Pipin
Current set up that i see for a short on the EUR/CHF with resistance at the 50% level. I'm wondering if it will hit the 233 fibo sequence level then retrace south ?
This is looking good FX Pipen. You have identified a strong resistance level that price should respect. Just remember that support and resistance points aren't single point horizontal lines they are actually zones or areas. So if price pushes up past your horizontal resistance line a bit the resistance zone may still be valid. Just watch to see if price action sets up a down move from the resistance area.
  • #567
  • Sep 12, 2008 5:13pm Sep 12, 2008 5:13pm
Gday ozzieD nice post THANKS!
  • #568
  • Edited Sep 13, 2008 2:05am Sep 12, 2008 9:39pm | Edited Sep 13, 2008 2:05am
I've been plotting the fib zones and retracements on various pairs and I've come up with some interesting observations. Now I know Mouteki hasn't gotten into alot of what I will present here but he did say for us to dive in and plot the fib zones and fib retracements so see how we would use them.

Warning: This is my own take on how to apply the fib zones, retracements and expansions.

So lets take a look at the USDCHF pair.

First we start out on the monthly chart because I want everyone to see where we currently are sitting with price.

Chart 1 shows we are in a strong overall down trend and we are currently in a pullback (correction) in the down trend. As you can see we are at a very critical point. Price has retraced to a very strong resistance level on the monthly chart (yellow line).

Chart 2 is a daily chart showing the last swing low (1.0012) to the present swing high (1.1430) on the monthly chart. If you go back and review Mouteki's videos you'll see that Forex Truth 2 details the up moves from the last swing low that occurred @ 1.0012. The thing to realise here is we've gone from the zero fib zone @ 1.0012 to just above the 1597 fib zone @ 1.1430. Ok..so we're at the 1597 fib zone...how do you think we might identify when we start to head back down to the 987 fib zone??? Stay tuned and in my next few posts I will show you how I've started to do this.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf monthly t1.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chf daily t2.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #569
  • Sep 12, 2008 11:28pm Sep 12, 2008 11:28pm
  •  itguy
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: 110..220....Whatever it takes | 39 Posts
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Every one,

Just to finish off what I've been showing about the EUR chart. As you can see the EUR has retraced back down to the 38.2 retracement level (1.4032) of the last swing high. So combine this with the fact that price has taken out the 233 fib zone it would seem logical that we're headed to the 377 fib zone. Now take a look at how many confluences we find within a few pips of the 377 fib zone, we have the 100 expansion level of the last swing high (orange dotted line), and a very strong resistance level identified from the daily chart (yellow line). Oddly enough, if you remember in Mouteki's early videos he analysised the EUR and started the zero point from 1.4307 looking at the down trend move. If you draw a fib retracement from point zero 1.4307 to the current swing low @ 1.3879 you will see that the 38.2 retracement of the original down move is at 1.4270 and the 610 Fib zone from the down move is at 1.4297. Is that freaky or what? In my last few posts what I was atempting to show every one was that you can also use the fib zones and retracements to identify that the rettarcement from the 987 fib zone back to the 610 fib zone is underway. Keep in mind that the 987 fib zone is @ 1.3920 and price turned around and started the up move @1.3879.

So based on my analysis I would say that if the original 610 Fib zone from the down move holds we would be headed back down to the 1597 fib zone. Keep in mind that price may retrace higher than the 610 fib zone of the last down move and then turn and resume the down move. I may be all wrong but there is a good chance thet price may move up to the 377 fib zone of the down move @ 1.4530...only time will tell.

I think this is very powerful tool if you get your head wrapped around the concept.
Well OD, not sure if this is a good or bad thing but your analysis and charts match mine, although I expected the retrace a bit later. This is the chart I traded today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-12-eu_987zone_bounce.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #570
  • Sep 12, 2008 11:35pm Sep 12, 2008 11:35pm
I'm not sure if these pairs have been discussed so far, but here are a couple that have my interest.

In the pictures Fib colors go Pink oldest then yellow. A light blue dotted is the fib from a previous uptrend.

Enjoy.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #571
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:06am Sep 13, 2008 2:06am
Quoting itguy
Ok here is v3, you can change line style and all other style option.

The lines won't change if you change timeframes on the same chart. Closing mt4 and reopening though will. I could code it so it would keep it's level when you close and reopen mt4, but A. that's making it more complicated than it needs to be and B. having to reposition it if you close and reopen mt4 isn't a bad thing imo, it forces you to reanalyze your charts.

Now if we wanted to get really freaky, I could add alarms, make each line level type, width and color adjustable, add email alerts etc..... However spending that kind of time and making it that complex seems a bit much for a simple level indicator.

I might mess with adding those features when I have time. For now this version pretty much fits the job.

Hi, i am having problems with this indicator.

Everytime I change the value of the base line to my "0" sequence number, after a while it just changes values itself.

Why is that?

Thanks.
  • #572
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:48am Sep 13, 2008 2:48am
Quoting supaq
does anyone else have this setup its retracing from 161 extension and the 987 fib zone i am expecting it to retrace to either 610 zone which is 38% retracement of the current move or the 377 zone and 61%retracement then going short looking on forex factory there is news for the nzd in red so it will be intresting to see what happens
I've just started looking through all the posts I missed. I posted the exact same analysis as you on my last post! It is good when you actually see someone else who sees the same thing as you. Let's see how this develops, so far, so good.
  • #573
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:56am Sep 13, 2008 2:56am
Ok..we have the daily CHF chart again. Price has gotten to the 1597 level and we're trying to figure out if we've hit the top or do we have a bit more to go to the up side.

Notice the thick horizontal lines I've placed on the chart at point A, B and D. The distance between A-B and the distance between B-D is approximately the same..makes you think..??? Please note that points C and D are resistance levels above current price action that I've identified from the daily chart.

Also notice the grey shaded area, this is were price was range bound for about 2 months before it broke out and travalled to the 1597 fib zone. While price was in this range notice how it went up to the 987 fib zone and then dropped all the way back down to the 377 fib zone and then took off to the 1597 fib zone without any major retracements.

Take a look at several pairs and notice how many times price goes to the 987 level and then ranges back and forth (sometimes for weeks or months) until it retraces to either the 610 or 377 fib zone and takes off to the 1597 fib zone. Because this typically happens after we take out the 987 fib level, it makes this range fairly easy to identify. Why I am pointing this range bound area out will become clearer in the next few posts.

Ok..so we have all this information and we haven't even looked at the 4 or 1 hr charts yet. Just based on what information I have in front of me I would tend to agree with ITguy that we are not done with the up swing just yet. What I believe will happen is we'll get a minor retrace and price will pop back up into the range created by the 2 resistance levels C-D. Some where in that range price will reverse and go all the way back to at least the 987 fib level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf daily t3.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #574
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:43am Sep 13, 2008 3:43am
Quoting moutekitrader

I have the impretion that many enjoy the videos as a form of learning, but at the same time I feel that people may need change to keep them interested...

If anyone has a idea on how to present this data other than video, please...drop me a pm and let me now whats on your mind...
Hi,

hint : what is the difference between the first 3 videos and the next ones ?

Response : Organisation.

The first 3 videos were well organised with a clear plan from start to end. No hesitation in the speech, no problems on the charting.

The next videos started was more on the fly without a clear plan, hesitation on the speech (blanks while speaking and other non ending sentence etc...) and problem with the charting.

I dont blame you for this as it takes you time to do the videos and you dont owe us anything so it's really kind of you to do them (i uses fibs personnaly and your add on with expansion gave me some ideas to implement )

So this will be me advice for the next video like in trading : Have a plan
  • #575
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:04am Sep 13, 2008 4:04am
Quoting melpheos
Hi,

hint : what is the difference between the first 3 videos and the next ones ?

Response : Organisation.

The first 3 videos were well organised with a clear plan from start to end. No hesitation in the speech, no problems on the charting.

The next videos started was more on the fly without a clear plan, hesitation on the speech (blanks while speaking and other non ending sentence etc...) and problem with the charting.

I dont blame you for this as it takes you time to do the videos and you dont owe us anything so it's really kind of you to do them (i uses fibs personnaly and your add on with expansion gave me some ideas to implement )

So this will be me advice for the next video like in trading : Have a plan
Hi Melphoes,

Mouteki is not a professional speaker he's a trader who is trying to helps us all trade better. My suggestion would be to NOT..be critical of anything that is given away for free and with good intentions.
  • #576
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:09am Sep 13, 2008 4:09am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Melphoes,

Mouteki is not a professional speaker he's a trader who is trying to helps us all trade better. My suggestion would be to NOT..be critical of anything that is given away for free and with good intentions.
I'd actually rather it be like this it sets a more informal pace for me and really makes it easy to understand. I can't really explain how... it makes him seem much more human and that is important because it creates a connection with the viewer.

While others might want some hollywood script I think it is perfect the way it is. Keep up the great work Mouteki!
  • #577
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:38am Sep 13, 2008 4:38am
The Kiwis is not respecting fundamentals. Despite a rate cut it went North. It may bounce off the blue rectangles and resume its South bound journey.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd chf.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #578
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:03am Sep 13, 2008 5:03am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Melphoes,

Mouteki is not a professional speaker he's a trader who is trying to helps us all trade better. My suggestion would be to NOT..be critical of anything that is given away for free and with good intentions.
Mouteki was asking for advice on how to keep the viewer interested in what he is doing. This is what i did. But i totally understand your point of view.

Critisizing without giving constructive advices is lame and i dont think that is what i did.

Please have a look on the sexy stochastic thread. I spent a lot of time making indicators, pdf file, giving advice and taking critics so i'm pretty sure Mouteki wont take my critics badly

Quoting Verto
I'd actually rather it be like this it sets a more informal pace for me and really makes it easy to understand. I can't really explain how... it makes him seem much more human and that is important because it creates a connection with the viewer.

While others might want some hollywood script I think it is perfect the way it is. Keep up the great work Mouteki!
So it seems it depends on the person then
  • #579
  • Sep 13, 2008 5:30am Sep 13, 2008 5:30am
Quoting melpheos
Mouteki was asking for advice on how to keep the viewer interested in what he is doing. This is what i did. But i totally understand your point of view.

Critisizing without giving constructive advices is lame and i dont think that is what i did.

Please have a look on the sexy stochastic thread. I spent a lot of time making indicators, pdf file, giving advice and taking critics so i'm pretty sure Mouteki wont take my critics badly



So it seems it depends on the person then
You have done a good job. Please hang around as we may require some EAs or indicators from you when the Fib course unfolds.
  • #580
  • Sep 13, 2008 11:46am Sep 13, 2008 11:46am
Ozzie Dave, On the chart above (573) are the fib zone lines from an indicator or do you do them manually? I would like to have a template of that chart and the indicators necessary to make it work. Thanks for your post they are very informative. Paul
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