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  • #5,821
  • Sep 12, 2008 7:33am Sep 12, 2008 7:33am
70 pips in NY session today.
Thank you Bo!
  • #5,822
  • Sep 12, 2008 11:26am Sep 12, 2008 11:26am
Hey Bobokus,

After two great weeks and a great beginning of week, I screwed up myself yesterday and today... And I'm behind of 2 weeks ago again

One more time the changing of direction killed me, I've been trading EU the last 3 weeks and I think I got used to see EU failing when testing intraday long when it really did it yesterday, it killed me... Today I opened sell trades in all retracements that EU did and as you and everybody can see on the chars, the result was terrible.

I'd like to ask you, if it's possible for you, to analyse what happened with EU between yesterday and today and when you would stop to sell and wait for buy signal.

thanks a lot
  • #5,823
  • Sep 12, 2008 12:47pm Sep 12, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting psneto
Hey Bobokus,

After two great weeks and a great beginning of week, I screwed up myself yesterday and today... And I'm behind of 2 weeks ago again

One more time the changing of direction killed me, I've been trading EU the last 3 weeks and I think I got used to see EU failing when testing intraday long when it really did it yesterday, it killed me... Today I opened sell trades in all retracements that EU did and as you and everybody can see on the chars, the result was terrible.

I'd like to ask you, if it's possible for you, to analyse what happened with EU between yesterday and today and when you would stop to sell and wait for buy signal.

thanks a lot
Ive been trading the euro the past week myself but yesterday and early today showed us something different that we havnt seen much lately and thats support holding for a change, very similar to what we were talking about with cable last night. What we saw today was a test and break of resistance levels.
Go out to your 4 hour chart of the euro and measure the last leg down before it made this push up. Should look something like Chart 1 posted below.
The 2nd chart shows you the same thing but from the 1 hour.
The 3rd chart shows that From the Intraday we have a bounce that could have been a false one but nonethe less its a long signal by price moving down and then previous period highs begin to be broken, and from that point on there was no sign of weakness until Ti from the Intraday is met. If you would have shorted from that point to catch a retracement once previous period lows began to break it would have been a looser by about 24 pips.
If youll notice where The Intraday T1 is in respect to the resistance fib levels are on the 4 hour , once price did retrace after T1 being met price bounces from the levels of the 4 hour fib and makes another run long from there....a double dip day
Were getting alot of fear mongers that are stokeing the fire now to make a quick profit from the refineries being shut down in Texas because of the paltry class 2 hurricane, there are gas stations running out of gas from the panic and the same panic is running through the markets.It will come back to normall once a decent profit is made and they have to tell everyone that the refineries survived the terrible terrible class 2 hurricane....LOL
But anyway the euro is just making a retracemet but eventually everything has to come back to reality.
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  • #5,824
  • Sep 12, 2008 1:35pm Sep 12, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting Bobokus
Ive been trading the euro the past week myself but yesterday and early today showed us something different that we havnt seen much lately and thats support holding for a change, very similar to what we were talking about with cable last night. What we saw today was a test and break of resistance levels.
Go out to your 4 hour chart of the euro and measure the last leg down before it made this push up. Should look something like Chart 1 posted below.
The 2nd chart shows you the same thing but from the 1 hour.
The 3rd chart shows that From the Intraday we have a bounce that could have been a false one but nonethe less its a long signal by price moving down and then previous period highs begin to be broken, and from that point on there was no sign of weakness until Ti from the Intraday is met. If you would have shorted from that point to catch a retracement once previous period lows began to break it would have been a looser by about 24 pips.
If youll notice where The Intraday T1 is in respect to the resistance fib levels are on the 4 hour , once price did retrace after T1 being met price bounces from the levels of the 4 hour fib and makes another run long from there....a double dip day
Were getting alot of fear mongers that are stokeing the fire now to make a quick profit from the refineries being shut down in Texas because of the paltry class 2 hurricane, there are gas stations running out of gas from the panic and the same panic is running through the markets.It will come back to normall once a decent profit is made and they have to tell everyone that the refineries survived the terrible terrible class 2 hurricane....LOL
But anyway the euro is just making a retracemet but eventually everything has to come back to reality.
Thanks a again, Bo!

Excellent explanation... I wish I had asked this last night so I would pay attention to what the market was trying to tell me instead of be "too confident" that today would be short again.

The 4H frame was the key for today in my opnion.. it was clear from it that the market would go long today. I confess that I've been looking only to Daily and Hourly chart.

About that short opportunity ( that I took btw ) why would you get off when the market broke 14100 and not wait a little bit more? I know you have different strategies to deal with stop loss or assume a loss but in this case why wouldn't you decide to wait a little bit more?
I'm asking because during this week, I had 2 trades that became -85, crossed some fib levels, before run in my favor but I confess that I didn't have any strategy for this only the hope to not loose them and it worked out luckly. But today "my hope" failed and I closed this trade with -91.

thanks again
  • #5,825
  • Sep 12, 2008 3:42pm Sep 12, 2008 3:42pm
Bob.

I did not follow your strategy today and was punished as a result.
As I missed the initial move I thought I will wait until the move gets exhausted and I take the retracement (especially because daily trend is down too) and when I felt that the average daily range is filled, I started to use sell stop when I saw a weakness on price but every time it turned against me .
I was taught this way of trading through a workshop I attended a while ago but unfortunately most of the time I found myself in a counter trend move.
Since I have been following your system I have been trying to forget about that system but it seems to have become a habit which is difficult to shake off.
Do you have any tips or golden rule how I can get rid of these habits and sticking to your system. If I had followed your system and instructions from last night it would have been a very successful trade.
  • #5,826
  • Sep 12, 2008 4:58pm Sep 12, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting alex12
Bob.

I did not follow your strategy today and was punished as a result.
As I missed the initial move I thought I will wait until the move gets exhausted and I take the retracement (especially because daily trend is down too) and when I felt that the average daily range is filled, I started to use sell stop when I saw a weakness on price but every time it turned against me .
I was taught this way of trading through a workshop I attended a while ago but unfortunately most of the time I found myself in a counter trend move.
Since I have been following your system I have been trying to forget about that system but it seems to have become a habit which is difficult to shake off.
Do you have any tips or golden rule how I can get rid of these habits and sticking to your system. If I had followed your system and instructions from last night it would have been a very successful trade.
Retracements just set up the next movements, the movements are what you want to target not the retracements, you use the retracements into the last movement (Intraday) as a gauge into the next movement. Today there was no retracement only movement in price.Thursday there was movement then retracement, that retracement provided the entry for todays movement. Stop trading the retracements during Intraday they are only setting up the entry's for the next movement.
If that makes sense.
There is a difference in retracements comparing Intraday to say a retracement on the Daily, the difference is that retracements into a trending move from a Daily scale can go many pips, where trading Intraday they are only resetting the pair for the next entry.
  • #5,827
  • Sep 12, 2008 5:09pm Sep 12, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting Bobokus
Retracements just set up the next movements, the movements are what you want to target not the retracements, you use the retracements into the last movement (Intraday) as a gauge into the next movement. Today there was no retracement only movement in price.Thursday there was movement then retracement, that retracement provided the entry for todays movement. Stop trading the retracements during Intraday they are only setting up the entry's for the next movement.
If that makes sense.
There is a difference in retracements comparing Intraday to say a retracement on the Daily, the difference is that retracements into a trending move from a Daily scale can go many pips, where trading Intraday they are only resetting the pair for the next entry.
Thanks Bob.
I will definitely "stop trading the retracements during intraday ".
  • #5,828
  • Sep 12, 2008 5:56pm Sep 12, 2008 5:56pm
HI Bo,
Can you please tell me what the T3 & T4 Fibos are and when you would use them......it seems as if sometimes you use them and other times not!?
  • #5,829
  • Sep 12, 2008 6:54pm Sep 12, 2008 6:54pm
Quoting ihop
HI Bo,
Can you please tell me what the T3 & T4 Fibos are and when you would use them......it seems as if sometimes you use them and other times not!?
They are the 2.382 amd 2.618 's (-1.382, -1.618's), I dont use them. Some of the tools I have on a template still have them on there and I just havnt removed those levels from them yet. Its not necessary to try and trade to those levels trading Intraday. There will be too many waveforms where new fibs would be drawn anyway before those target ranges are met.
  • #5,830
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:27am Sep 13, 2008 2:27am
Hi Bo,

Thanks for your reply re T3/T4. That makes sense.

1. Also if you feel like giving some examples, could you please embellise on your strategy for market entry when the price action hits one of the three Fibs that make up the entry zone, then reacts in the opposite direction. Do you have any technique to assess whether or not the reversal will hold, or know whether it is just a minor retracement before continuing to the next Fib in its original direction? In other words, if it approaching the Intraday Short, and it reacts by bouncing off of it, do you enter there in case it doesn't extend to the Intraday Pivot....so if it does continue do you exit and wait for another entry signal at another Fibo level?

2. At present I make it that the EUR & AUD are very close to a 4 hr. Swing Short. So, what confirmation would you be waiting for to enter on this long term chart, given the fact that on the 1 hr chart the Wave looks Impulsive and has completed 5 waves? More or less the same question...the only difference is that it is now the 4 hr chart, where stops would probably have to be greater (if you use them!)
  • #5,831
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:43am Sep 13, 2008 2:43am
Bo, if we see conflicting fibs at different time frames, is the high time frame the more dominate one, or should we give more weight for price direction ( for scalps ) to the swing fibs. Sometimes I will see support or resistance repected on a higher time frame, but when I pull the swing fib it looks like it has been violated or vice a versa ( support or resistance violated on a higher time frame , but respected on the pulled swing fib ). I would like to be able to make more of a calculated decision instead of just " flipping a coin" so to speak. Thanks a bunch for your insights.
  • #5,832
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:49am Sep 13, 2008 4:49am
Quoting ihop
Hi Bo,

Thanks for your reply re T3/T4. That makes sense.

1. Also if you feel like giving some examples, could you please embellise on your strategy for market entry when the price action hits one of the three Fibs that make up the entry zone, then reacts in the opposite direction. Do you have any technique to assess whether or not the reversal will hold, or know whether it is just a minor retracement before continuing to the next Fib in its original direction? In other words, if it approaching the Intraday Short, and it reacts by bouncing off of it, do you enter there in case it doesn't extend to the Intraday Pivot....so if it does continue do you exit and wait for another entry signal at another Fibo level?

2. At present I make it that the EUR & AUD are very close to a 4 hr. Swing Short. So, what confirmation would you be waiting for to enter on this long term chart, given the fact that on the 1 hr chart the Wave looks Impulsive and has completed 5 waves? More or less the same question...the only difference is that it is now the 4 hr chart, where stops would probably have to be greater (if you use them!)
Loved the euro last week, it traded almost picture perfect and gave up some very nice moves. There are several ways you can enter. The most risky being to simply identify the market is bearish and place sell limit orders on the Inner levels of your fib, mid level risk is what the next few charts demonstrate which is following behind the market with either a buy or sell stop and letting the reversal of momentum pick you up on its way.The least risky is wait until the levels are tested and candle to open away from the levels after the test or break of the levels.In a trending market they will hit like clockwork in a ranging market youll have to put up with alot of noise and reversals so the method of choice during ranging is scalping until its obvious the ranging pattern has been broken.
The next few charts show the medium risk type entry used on the euro over the last week or so.
In Example 2, I mislabelled the entry candle..its the 00 candle low of the 8th
Its early for me.............
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,833
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:53am Sep 13, 2008 4:53am
Quoting kpt1956
Bo, if we see conflicting fibs at different time frames, is the high time frame the more dominate one, or should we give more weight for price direction ( for scalps ) to the swing fibs. Sometimes I will see support or resistance repected on a higher time frame, but when I pull the swing fib it looks like it has been violated or vice a versa ( support or resistance violated on a higher time frame , but respected on the pulled swing fib ). I would like to be able to make more of a calculated decision instead of just " flipping a coin" so to speak. Thanks a bunch for your insights.
Yes, the higher timeframe levels carry more weight and when they break its a strong move, If we continue to rally into these downtrends the resistance levels built up above price are going to be pretty stiff, so when taking long positins now be aware of where the higher timeframe levels are since they may in the path of your Intraday targets.
  • #5,834
  • Sep 13, 2008 7:17am Sep 13, 2008 7:17am
i am here again...question,questions,questions...i am learning anyway...thanks for your effort.you mentioned getting to enter the market 7p.m central time...what is that time in gmt?

happy pips taking
  • #5,835
  • Sep 13, 2008 10:23am Sep 13, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Bobokus
Loved the euro last week, it traded almost picture perfect and gave up some very nice moves. There are several ways you can enter. The most risky being to simply identify the market is bearish and place sell limit orders on the Inner levels of your fib, mid level risk is what the next few charts demonstrate which is following behind the market with either a buy or sell stop and letting the reversal of momentum pick you up on its way.The least risky is wait until the levels are tested and candle to open away from the levels after the test or break of the levels.In a trending market they will hit like clockwork in a ranging market youll have to put up with alot of noise and reversals so the method of choice during ranging is scalping until its obvious the ranging pattern has been broken.
The next few charts show the medium risk type entry used on the euro over the last week or so.
In Example 2, I mislabelled the entry candle..its the 00 candle low of the 8th
Its early for me.............
Excellent examples, bo! Thanks a lot!
  • #5,836
  • Sep 13, 2008 10:25am Sep 13, 2008 10:25am
Quoting bjpumping
i am here again...question,questions,questions...i am learning anyway...thanks for your effort.you mentioned getting to enter the market 7p.m central time...what is that time in gmt?

happy pips taking
Its very very rare if I were to enter at 7pm central time. Currently 7pm central time is 00 GMT.
  • #5,837
  • Edited 2:39pm Sep 13, 2008 1:54pm | Edited 2:39pm
if anyone interested, then im putting together an application to strip this thread into a readable 1 page html doc with local pictures and attachments.
Here's what ive done so far.
It might be a while before i get to finish the app, but i hope you find this much helpful.

Its an html file (the html indent is awful, but its done with a script so apologies...), but i had to zip it as forexfactory doesnt like html files being uploaded.

Note: The times are a bit off due to timezone differences, daylight savings etc...
Im on gmt here, as is my forexfactory.com account and the last posts.
The posts are GMT-5 in the html doc
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Fibonacci_Trading_Bobokus_Contents.zip   81 KB | 1,620 downloads
  • #5,838
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:27pm Sep 13, 2008 2:27pm
To anyone who was trading the euro last week, then hopefully this picture should help.

Always use the biggest TF you can before any trade and mark out all major area's of support and resistance. Keep this chart visible.

See james16's thread for more on this. Even if just for the first few pages.

Support/Resistance doesnt always occur on a noticeable fib line. Mark out major monthly/weekly highs lows and keep them on your charts. It doenst matter how old they are, as long as they're significant.

Now there are no guarantees in trading so we dont know what going to happen at these area's but you need to keep an eye on them nonetheless for potential points or trend continuation

Any opinions on that?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_weekly_big_sr_areas.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #5,839
  • Sep 13, 2008 3:11pm Sep 13, 2008 3:11pm
Hi Bo,
Just wondering about your last template posted here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post2197463
1st picture

Now, i just said i'd pull my uptrend fib as you had done recently with the retracement fib:
Arrow up marks a swing low, arrow down marks a swing high, tick marks levels respected and x marks target hit.

The next fib i place is where the previous levels were respected to where the previous target was hit.
Q1 - As far as i can see then this is the correct way you move your swing fib. Should it not be the same for the higher TF fibs?

So here they are:

Q2 - What i am wondering is should your uptrend fib not be as per my last picture gu_mine_uptrend_6th.gif?
Thanks for your help...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,840
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:19pm Sep 13, 2008 4:19pm
Hi Bo,
Here is my current placement of the intraday fibs in the 3rd pic.

The reason i placed it there and not from the low of friday at 1.7539, or lower at the start of the current wave at 1.7462 on thursday
is because thursdays intraday fibs were respected at the two ticks on pic 1, and their targets were hit at the x.

Q1 - Thursdays intraday fibs could have been pulled from either down arrow. It doesnt really matter which as it was only a difference of 10 pips. Is that correct?

Q2 - So i pull my current intraday fibs from the last area where an intraday was respected to its targets? Is that correct?

Q3 - How have you pulled your current intraday fibs?

Q4 - If a fib over shoots its target as it did on friday marked x in both pic 1 and 2. Do you pull the fib to the highest point it overshot before it retraced? As i did in pic 3.


thanks!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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