Tried to find the "hug" smiley, but it seems that's the one they DIDN'T include.
Just goes to shows my theories about pub forums being more about confrontation than love weren't that far off!
(It has "boxing", "sick", "devil" and "chicken" instead!)
Should add that the point was/is I can be just as wrong as the next guy, and sometimes just keeping something to yourself is better because it doesn't run risk of influencing those who think they couldn't possible be more right in estimating a situation than someone else. Everything is speculation; it's making the most out of those times you ARE right that's crucial imho.
- #13,581
- Sep 12, 2008 9:56am Sep 12, 2008 9:56am
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #13,583
- Sep 12, 2008 12:41pm Sep 12, 2008 12:41pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
@Mike do you take some $$ of the table on a wining postion to ease the pressure?
Jason
I don't want to go too off the scope of this thread with my personal exit styles. It is very lengthy and beyond the scope here IMO.
I never take partial profit on my regular trading(price action/breakouts). I 95% of the time trail my stops in a variety of ways(using previous bar high/lows, price action, support resistance, PPZs, volatility indicator, etc). It highly depends on the type of trade, timeframe, and the situation. There is never a one size fits all for my style of trading. I use %R for my position sizing.
I know this isn't very detailed but it has taken > 500+ posts on this subject to cover it to the point I believe does it justice. I have some new excerpt clips on the guest side of the PF that I believe a few of them might give you some ideas better on how I trail my stops. Every trade is a new situation, and especially the larger timeframe trades are much more discretionary in my trailing. I never use a broker trailing stop(i get that question a lot). Often times the larger the timeframe I mark areas, where we might get conflicting PA. At these areas I look to tighten up or lock in more profit depedning on the PA and what not. On some of the lower timeframes I tend to use more mechanical style trailing in the form of a (2bar exit, 1bar exit, volatility indicator, conflicting PA(ie reversal bars). The reason I believe trailing stops fits my style is my conservative nature of picking entries which have a built in higher R:R. Meaning waiting for those perfect pins on the daily, means they tend to run better since I take them in "space" and what not. Breakouts are a bit different scope here too though.
If you have more specific questions please shoot me a PM so I don't take this thread off course to my personal styles on exits.
Have a great weekend I am off to the Yankees game(perhaps my last in the old stadium as the playoffs would be the biggest miracle every at this point
)
Mike
- #13,584
- Sep 12, 2008 12:50pm Sep 12, 2008 12:50pm
Anyone catch the USD/CAD pin, moving nicely.
SL @ 1.0835
1sr TP @ 1.0345 area.
Will put trade to BE when price reaches 1.0465, weekly lows.
Worse I went short USDCHF on that 4 hour doji. Lost my nerve pulled the trade. Loss. Then got mad at myself re entered trade again, lost my nerve, pulled the trade a second time. Loss Now the trade has moved 2 times my TP
Lesson re learned for 100 time, Fial to follow plan = plan to fail or something like that. Great trade on that Pin!
Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
- #13,586
- Sep 12, 2008 1:11pm Sep 12, 2008 1:11pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Sorry to all, I didn't mean to get to off topic on this thread.Mike pm sent
PM sent back
Enjoy the weekend
Mike
- #13,588
- Sep 12, 2008 5:19pm Sep 12, 2008 5:19pm
- | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Nomad | 1,144 Posts
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't."
-Anonymous hillbilly
- #13,589
- Sep 12, 2008 5:33pm Sep 12, 2008 5:33pm
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
hello guys, would anyone out there be able to confirm that this is a pinbar? Do the parameters meet the guidlines for a pin bar, and how again does one determine the technical target, or do you just play the break and then manage the trade appropriately? Thanks for any insight. Mud.
p.s. the pin would be yesterdays daily candle that I am referring to.
Yes that's a pin.
I was personally happy to trade it on a break because of the double bottom it created on the chart.
I suspect that this will break the Sept. 7th high and give us a double bottom chart pattern target around the 205 area, BUT for the moment we still haven't closed the gap in the charts that was created at the beginning of the month (@ 197.59), so this is the area to watch out for. (by that I mean the Sept 7th high and the gap area)
For now there is no reason to close the trade. For some, taking partial profits would be an option. It's sitting at a previous support price (March 7th) and we are hanging around a long term PPZ zone on the weekly chart. With the current strong daily bar, I'm personally leaving it as is. ( My preference only)
My stop loss is currently just below the entry price. ...A pull back to this point in only one day would be a bad sign, so I'd want to be out at that point.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #13,592
- Sep 12, 2008 7:24pm Sep 12, 2008 7:24pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
I did get in this one and wanted to hold longer. But I took my money at 1:1 and ran. The question that bugs me is why would I loose my never after 3 bars (on the 4 hour) and yet on GBPJPY hold for over 366 bars and counting??
Worse I went short USDCHF on that 4 hour doji. Lost my nerve pulled the trade. Loss. Then got mad at myself re entered trade again, lost my nerve, pulled the trade a second time. Loss Now the trade has moved 2 times my TP
Great trade on that Pin!
Jason
Patience my friend, there will be more great trades. Have confidence that you saw the trades, and you were correct on the movement. That is progress. Now, maybe work on your exit plan and target criteria and make sure to give it enough time to prove itself either wrong or right. Emotions can get the best of anyone. Dion
- #13,593
- Sep 12, 2008 9:49pm Sep 12, 2008 9:49pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Hi Guys,
I was looking into a new MM strategy of scaling a position with the trade as it develops, i guess it was first told by Mike, however i seem to be terribly confused as i initially was using a straight forward voulme size for each of my trades according to my MM and th weight in the trade.
My main confusion is the money and pips that i am making/loosing.
let me make it as simple as i possibly can, i take a trade with 1 standard lot when my MM allows me to go with as much as 3 such lots. not surprisngly () my trade hits +50 pips! and i now decide to add on another 1 lot. this lot too starts to yield me some profits, now for example i close both my trades at the point where my first volume (the 1 lot i started the trade off with) trade shows me a profit of 100 pips, this would mean the other trade i opened 50 pips later would close out at +50.
my q here is how many pips have i made?? 50?? 100? or 150?? that is do i need to take the entire process as two seprate trades or is it just part of a singal trade, if so what parameters define the pips i made? one logical explanation i find is that pehaps i am making 100 pips while 50 of these pips were running at double the pip value i.e $2 per pip.
this is the simplest case, things become more complicated as i open and close postive and negitive trades within the larger trade i take that is from the start of the first volume invested in the trade. e.g considering the last example, what if i had closed this second lot at -20 instead of +50?? while my original trade was closed out at +100?? what if i closed my original trade before the second trade at +20 and let the other one run for the next 200 maybe...these are all qestions i am struggling to find answers for...
Regards,
Ghous.
I was looking into a new MM strategy of scaling a position with the trade as it develops, i guess it was first told by Mike, however i seem to be terribly confused as i initially was using a straight forward voulme size for each of my trades according to my MM and th weight in the trade.
My main confusion is the money and pips that i am making/loosing.
let me make it as simple as i possibly can, i take a trade with 1 standard lot when my MM allows me to go with as much as 3 such lots. not surprisngly (
) my trade hits +50 pips! and i now decide to add on another 1 lot. this lot too starts to yield me some profits, now for example i close both my trades at the point where my first volume (the 1 lot i started the trade off with) trade shows me a profit of 100 pips, this would mean the other trade i opened 50 pips later would close out at +50.my q here is how many pips have i made?? 50?? 100? or 150?? that is do i need to take the entire process as two seprate trades or is it just part of a singal trade, if so what parameters define the pips i made? one logical explanation i find is that pehaps i am making 100 pips while 50 of these pips were running at double the pip value i.e $2 per pip.
this is the simplest case, things become more complicated as i open and close postive and negitive trades within the larger trade i take that is from the start of the first volume invested in the trade. e.g considering the last example, what if i had closed this second lot at -20 instead of +50?? while my original trade was closed out at +100?? what if i closed my original trade before the second trade at +20 and let the other one run for the next 200 maybe...these are all qestions i am struggling to find answers for...
Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
- #13,594
- Sep 12, 2008 9:55pm Sep 12, 2008 9:55pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #13,595
- Sep 12, 2008 10:02pm Sep 12, 2008 10:02pm
- | Joined Mar 2006 | Status: fibo in utero | 109 Posts
Hi Mud,
Yes that's a pin.
I was personally happy to trade it on a break because of the double bottom it created on the chart.
I suspect that this will break the Sept. 7th high and give us a double bottom chart pattern target around the 205 area, BUT for the moment we still haven't closed the gap in the charts that was created at the beginning of the month (@ 197.59), so this is the area to watch out for. (by that I mean the Sept 7th high and the gap area)
For now there is no reason to close the trade. For some, taking partial profits would be an option. It's sitting at a previous support price (March 7th) and we are hanging around a long term PPZ zone on the weekly chart. With the current strong daily bar, I'm personally leaving it as is. ( My preference only)
My stop loss is currently just below the entry price. ...A pull back to this point in only one day would be a bad sign, so I'd want to be out at that point.
- #13,596
- Sep 13, 2008 12:27am Sep 13, 2008 12:27am
@ Hipster thanks for the encouragement. I have no exit plan/target, I'll make it this weekends home work
@ Ghous ... glad I'm not alone in my struggle for an exit that fits ourselfs.
I would say you made 150 pips. That the trade went 100 pips. Each add is
is different. setup A = 1 lot, setup B (after 50 pip profit in your example) = 1 lot. I would test each one to see if one is more profitable than the other.
If you find that setup B makes more money than setup A, you might be
better off just trading setup B. That's not my idea by the way its Ed
Seykota's. Around 600 samples should get you a confidence interval of
4%. Of course market data wont fit a standard distribution. But hey, at
least it gives us something to work with. Good luck in your journey.
Jason
@ Ghous ... glad I'm not alone in my struggle for an exit that fits ourselfs.
I would say you made 150 pips. That the trade went 100 pips. Each add is
is different. setup A = 1 lot, setup B (after 50 pip profit in your example) = 1 lot. I would test each one to see if one is more profitable than the other.
If you find that setup B makes more money than setup A, you might be
better off just trading setup B. That's not my idea by the way its Ed
Seykota's. Around 600 samples should get you a confidence interval of
4%. Of course market data wont fit a standard distribution. But hey, at
least it gives us something to work with. Good luck in your journey.
Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
- #13,597
- Sep 13, 2008 12:43am Sep 13, 2008 12:43am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Screw Long Term 5min For Life! | 1,259 Posts
So much stuff happened..
I jotted some of this down, looks interesting in a chapter sort of way..
I really liked Jim's charts and I have to agree with Mike on that one trafficked GBPUSD PB, it was really a breakout-retest play. I charted it when it occured as well and saw the TL underside, seeing it "naked" I'd go eww, that was, like, sideways. Perspective can make so much of a difference.
I just made a video about how trading any given moment is more about the general situation things are in rather than just the bar and I think this is related to what caused FXP so much frustration.
Either way, just wanted to say that if anyone thinks this thread or stuff around is promotion for the site: if it were, you'd get around 99% less info. As it stands, the pure information is basically handed out for free here.
It's more about more in depth / direct acces / support / feedback / community / the odd trick here and there / integration type of thing more than superduper hideout secrets of the amazon, insiders only type of thing.
I know this has been pointed out before, but I just wanted to say this again as it's always a bit shocking to me how it still works to draw people despite basically already disclosing everything publically. It makes me realize that there's more to learning than just the "book" you're supposed to read for class and that the actual confrontation with "classroom and teacher" and whole "school community" may have a lot more to do with it than the actual material.
It fits in quite well with this that I'm noticing just how much value there is in a direct feedback for those people who do struggle, as not everyone manages the x thousand pip runs right off the bat
Something you might have taken for granted may turn out to be just what they needed to hear to give them that thing to break them on through to the next point, or the simple "investing in yourself to show yourself what you really want" may more than anything be what makes it worth it.
Anyhow, I'm still a bit woozy in the head, so dunno if I am making too much sense.
Btw, ryan, I read the live trade challenge, and although I try my best to keep my journal on J16 a bit like a "running commentary" and ponder weekly plans for the week on Sundays, I'm not sure I would want to do it publically. I've considered it(a thread with just setup + chart / result + chart), but I really don't like the kind of being that public forums usually are..every winner leads to cheerleading and "took your trade, made x thousand dollars, thanks!!!!!" and every single loss "proves it doesn't work"...just deeply troubling or potentially upsetting either way.
I try my best to chart out weekly "paths" beforehand when I see big scenarios coming up(like EURUSD, GBPUSD, EG, GJ, GC etc) and try to follow up on them in a chronology, just to show that they do / did fill out and I'm not making it up afterwards as I go along. The posted EURUSD(the weekly fall), EURGBP(rise in steps) and GBPCHF(daily/weekly topping out and fall) for example were all stuff that I tried to chronicle as they occured, but most of that happens "over there" and not in this thread. I snap the charts though to show that the idea was there before / as it happened, and not "put on after".
I'm always worried about the "others following blindly" stuff or influencing folks. What would Hipster say for example if I told him I was currently mostly bearish on EURGBP! He'd cry, for sure!
Btw, Ryan twice already pointed out what others and I have been trying to say several times as well, and this blends in with the situation comment up there: be aware that going WITH the main move after a retrace e.g. makes it MUCH more sexy for your setups rather than trying to stem the tide with a less than super ideal bar. I usually try going with things after turning points, but that also means I have to figure out where those are likely to be as well. Mike does it with breakouts, Ryan on the 5m, we all have our ways, but we also all have an idea what to look out for and what the situation is.
Anyhow. Here's some chaptering, and I'll see whether I've got anything useful to post chart wise the next few days. So much unidirectional moves make for little stuff to trade/do once you're "in".
---------
PB frustration
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13418
reply
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13421
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13422
Mike mbq about what PA J16 trading is about
jims reply
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13429
ryanmcd chimes in
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13430
j16 example charts
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13431
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13432
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13433
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13436
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13437
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13438
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13440
jankone
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13447
the biggest enemy is you
via on "seekers"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13450
"just lucky" and nothing works
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13442
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13456
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13459
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13537
mike on breakout / continuation
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13465
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13467
general gems from mike
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13508
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13514
mike on gaps
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13517
discretion and rules, structure
ryanmcd adds
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13563
on timeframes
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13547
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13553
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13475
if you don't "believe", nothing will convince you, ever.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13546
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13562
don't skip your learning curve steps
wow great post and you put a lot of time into this. Also about the trade thing I just wanted to see what others are doing if they trade the short term stuff, the only problem I have had with posting live is sometimes you get tied to a trade when you know you should of cut it and that's a bad thing. I posted some live stuff on the J16 chart thread when I was on that site but it really did me no good. One thing people can do is as soon as they get into a trade take a screen shot of it at that exact moment, print it out and go over what worked and what did not, after a few thousand trades you can almost see the future of the trade.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
- #13,598
- Sep 13, 2008 1:09am Sep 13, 2008 1:09am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
Ghous and aSandman,
You should manage your trades in terms of risk to your account as it stands. If you have a situation where you are adding to a long due to a new high probability set up, then that new trade should define your latest stop-loss position in most cases anyway. If on the same time frame at least, the previous trade can have it's stops managed at the same time.
When that second set up was created, you identified a level that would mark the point at which you are not willing to stay in with exposure to that direction any longer.
I often find myself with daily or lower trades on top of existing weekly trades etc. (and vice versa ) ....This is the situation where I use separate trade management. And totally separate too. Sure there can be two trade levels marked on the screen, but it's not that hard to remember which trade is about what. That's what the text tools are for if you need them. Mark the chart if you keep forgetting. "This is a weekly chart trade" or whatever.
The text tool isn't just there for posting charts to forums. lol
Don't bother too much with how many pips belongs to which trade. You should be thinking...
What's the overall risk to your current account position?
Taking into account your current exposure, are you going backwards an unacceptable amount from your current standing if you are stopped out of your trades ?
Will any new trade create unacceptable risk to either your locked in balances or hard earned profits?
Always protect your account.
You should manage your trades in terms of risk to your account as it stands. If you have a situation where you are adding to a long due to a new high probability set up, then that new trade should define your latest stop-loss position in most cases anyway. If on the same time frame at least, the previous trade can have it's stops managed at the same time.
When that second set up was created, you identified a level that would mark the point at which you are not willing to stay in with exposure to that direction any longer.
I often find myself with daily or lower trades on top of existing weekly trades etc. (and vice versa
) ....This is the situation where I use separate trade management. And totally separate too. Sure there can be two trade levels marked on the screen, but it's not that hard to remember which trade is about what. That's what the text tools are for if you need them. Mark the chart if you keep forgetting. "This is a weekly chart trade" or whatever.The text tool isn't just there for posting charts to forums. lol
Don't bother too much with how many pips belongs to which trade. You should be thinking...
What's the overall risk to your current account position?
Taking into account your current exposure, are you going backwards an unacceptable amount from your current standing if you are stopped out of your trades ?
Will any new trade create unacceptable risk to either your locked in balances or hard earned profits?
Always protect your account.
@ Hipster thanks for the encouragement. I have no exit plan/target, I'll make it this weekends home work
@ Ghous ... glad I'm not alone in my struggle for an exit that fits ourselfs.
I would say you made 150 pips. That the trade went 100 pips. Each add is
is different. setup A = 1 lot, setup B (after 50 pip profit in your example) = 1 lot. I would test each one to see if one is more profitable than the other.
If you find that setup B makes more money than setup A, you might be
better off just trading setup B. That's not my idea by the way its Ed
Seykota's. Around 600 samples should get you a confidence interval of
4%. Of course market data wont fit a standard distribution. But hey, at
least it gives us something to work with. Good luck in your journey.
Jason
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #13,600
- Sep 13, 2008 1:43am Sep 13, 2008 1:43am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Ghous and aSandman,
You should manage your trades in terms of risk to your account as it stands. If you have a situation where you are adding to a long due to a new high probability set up, then that new trade should define your latest stop-loss position in most cases anyway. If on the same time frame at least, the previous trade can have it's stops managed at the same time.
When that second set up was created, you identified a level that would mark the point at which you are not willing to stay in with exposure to that direction any longer.
I often find myself with daily or lower trades on top of existing weekly trades etc. (and vice versa
The text tool isn't just there for posting charts to forums. lol
Don't bother too much with how many pips belongs to which trade. You should be thinking...
What's the overall risk to your current account position?
Taking into account your current exposure, are you going backwards an unacceptable amount from your current standing if you are stopped out of your trades ?
Will any new trade create unacceptable risk to either your locked in balances or hard earned profits?
Always protect your account.
the example you gave abt having longer term trades and shorter term trades within the same pair and obviosuly on the same window is a valid case where you should consider each trade separately but in my case does it hold true as well?? because if i go for 3 lots right away and close the trade 100 pips later i have made hundred pips! however if i scale in my trade at 0, 30, 70 and close all three at +100 pips from the first buy i hit...i have made 30+(40+40)+(30+30+30)=200 pips!!!! is that correct? and can i add on this increased total to my overall pips and boast abt them??
I believe . . .