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NZD/JPY Primary Trading Hut

  • #21
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:59pm Sep 10, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting indotrader
I rarely trade this pair tokyobreeze, I was reading many articles about NZD today, added some drawings then I decided to close my long and add shorts, my long (small lot) was at 80 area added one short just before the drop and will add more heavy lot to maximize the profit
For now definitely short is the better side.

I have been trading this pair on 'carry trade' basis. That's why long on this pair interests me most. Yeah sure that they dropped the interest rate by 0.5%. Still 7.5% against the 0.5% of JPY accumulates nice swap points in longer perspective (provided we enter long at a suitable time of course).

But, certainly we are going to see big dumping of positions with rate cut which will help your short.

Happy trading!
  • #22
  • Sep 10, 2008 5:05pm Sep 10, 2008 5:05pm
Quoting tokyobreeze
For now definitely short is the better side.

I have been trading this pair on 'carry trade' basis. That's why long on this pair interests me most. Yeah sure that they dropped the interest rate by 0.5%. Still 7.5% against the 0.5% of JPY accumulates nice swap points in longer perspective (provided we enter long at a suitable time of course).

But, certainly we are going to see big dumping of positions with rate cut which will help your short.

Happy trading!
they might gonna leave it unchanged next time.. fundamentally that will be the best time to go LONG ( well.. maybe )

Happy Trading too Tokyoobreeze! best of luck for your trades
Money often costs too much...
  • #23
  • Sep 10, 2008 10:25pm Sep 10, 2008 10:25pm
Quoting tokyobreeze
Nice that you could close before the drop!

Personally I am waiting until few hours to rethink my standpoint. My interest on this pair is on long side (though current condition contradicts of course). I would go long at some point. Question is - when will be the good time :-) For now, I have a limit buy at 67.90 which I am planning to revise with time.
I will not go long now, we need a botom confirmation, then we can start leaving carrytrade positions all over the place.

The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #24
  • Sep 10, 2008 11:45pm Sep 10, 2008 11:45pm
Quoting bmvmx
I will not go long now, we need a botom confirmation, then we can start leaving carrytrade positions all over the place.

100% agree bmvmx. Waiting for that bottom :-) Where it might form you think? May be somewhere around 67? Don't know, these days market can go anywhere.
  • #25
  • Sep 11, 2008 1:10am Sep 11, 2008 1:10am
One of my favorite swing pairs. Here's a handy link showing yen cross positioning at a major Asian FX dealer. Fwiw, N/J positions have dropped over 60% (it was recently >225k contracts & 98% net long = prepped to fall hard).

After the major daily TL broke, it was an easy freefall to the Aug '07 lows at 74. Once 74 failed, N/J entered no man's land. '06 low of 67.75 is the next target.

NZD/USD is really in no man's land, and USD/JPY can't seem to reclaim its daily TL. Kiwi could easily continue on down to 6000 support here, there is no impetus to buy with Bollard on the hot button, other than possibily a fall equity rally. Kiwi @ 6000 with a static U/J implies an N/J at ~65. Then again, we haven't been this oversold on the weekly since N/J was in the 40s back in 2000..

Long or short on N/J at this stage is a very difficult call with kiwi down broken hard. All eyes are on U/J for me (and E/J at 150).
  • #26
  • Sep 11, 2008 1:58am Sep 11, 2008 1:58am
Quoting Trader KGB
One of my favorite swing pairs. Here's a handy link showing yen cross positioning at a major Asian FX dealer. Fwiw, N/J positions have dropped over 60% (it was recently >225k contracts & 98% net long = prepped to fall hard).

After the major daily TL broke, it was an easy freefall to the Aug '07 lows at 74. Once 74 failed, N/J entered no man's land. '06 low of 67.75 is the next target.

NZD/USD is really in no man's land, and USD/JPY can't seem to reclaim its daily TL. Kiwi could easily continue on down to 6000 support here, there is no impetus to buy with Bollard on the hot button, other than possibily a fall equity rally. Kiwi @ 6000 with a static U/J implies an N/J at ~65. Then again, we haven't been this oversold on the weekly since N/J was in the 40s back in 2000..

Long or short on N/J at this stage is a very difficult call with kiwi down broken hard. All eyes are on U/J for me (and E/J at 150).
Exactly, U/J is the leader now, and it seems it will continue to downtrend, as current formations suggest a downtrend continuation from current level and 106.55 probablly reaching 105.50 or below.

As for N/J downtrend continuation patterns also show all over the place, we are in an important support zone, but all indicators look bearish.

So until we see a reverse in main trend we should presume it will continue to fall. just buy the dip when it gets there.

For those 100% hedged, (that most of them are probably now outside of the market for liquidity reasons) I personally recomend to wait for huge movement either way to reenter with winning the spread, since consolidation is not a guarantee right now, you shall not enter at this time.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #27
  • Sep 11, 2008 3:20am Sep 11, 2008 3:20am
Nice Analysis Trader_KGB and bmvmx. I must say I didn't expect it to go berserk :-) Indeed anything can happen now and I am cooling in the sideline until it gets back into some kind of track.

Please keep posting nice analysis and insights.
  • #28
  • Sep 11, 2008 10:45pm Sep 11, 2008 10:45pm
Important news today, watch it carefully.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #29
  • Sep 12, 2008 2:06am Sep 12, 2008 2:06am
Well, as for me I'm adding longs on the way down, of course not overleveraging.

Last entry for NZDJPY was @ 69,8; for NZDCHF @ 0,7400

I believe that this pair will go down some more, but not drastic. NZDUSD @ 0,6000 is a bit unrealistic for me in regards to fundamental, but in the technical view there is really no real support to be seen right now. The following months hold the answers...
Greed and impatience are our greatest enemies.
  • #30
  • Sep 12, 2008 3:22am Sep 12, 2008 3:22am
Quoting Rabax
Well, as for me I'm adding longs on the way down, of course not overleveraging.

Last entry for NZDJPY was @ 69,8; for NZDCHF @ 0,7400

I believe that this pair will go down some more, but not drastic. NZDUSD @ 0,6000 is a bit unrealistic for me in regards to fundamental, but in the technical view there is really no real support to be seen right now. The following months hold the answers...
It seems not, but this is a critical level, if we breach 71 we WILL continue up until close, if not, retrace to lower lows.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #31
  • Sep 12, 2008 6:52am Sep 12, 2008 6:52am
I haven't got into yet. Today's news wasn't good either. May be next weeks open would give some guideline?!

Are you people into any trade?
  • #32
  • Sep 13, 2008 2:27pm Sep 13, 2008 2:27pm
right now i don't have any trade on NZDJPY but i am looking forward to a bullish week
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #33
  • Sep 13, 2008 4:31pm Sep 13, 2008 4:31pm
hi all,

what i see. the weekly and daily trend is down, we broke out of the consolidation area to the downside. in 4H chart i can see bullish divergence on the rsi and a broken bearish trendline. 1H chart we just hit the 200sma and the 4H bearish trendline, the macd shows bearish divergence. on the one hour chart we could see an invert h&s formation, price could drop to 70.50 and retest the broken 1H trendline and the 50% fibo of the move (41.95 - 97.74) to shoot up willing to retest the consolidation area around 75-77 and from there we might continue the downtrend. ...thats at least how i see it at the moment...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #34
  • Sep 18, 2008 3:36pm Sep 18, 2008 3:36pm
Quoting Titus
hi all,

what i see. the weekly and daily trend is down, we broke out of the consolidation area to the downside. in 4H chart i can see bullish divergence on the rsi and a broken bearish trendline. 1H chart we just hit the 200sma and the 4H bearish trendline, the macd shows bearish divergence. on the one hour chart we could see an invert h&s formation, price could drop to 70.50 and retest the broken 1H trendline and the 50% fibo of the move (41.95 - 97.74) to shoot up willing to retest the consolidation area around 75-77 and from there we might continue the downtrend. ...thats at least how i see it at the moment...
At this point everyone should be really carefull, seems there is a bearish divergence in bigger TF, but both currencies are very volatile, the daily oscillation is way out of normal parameters, the pair is not to be traded now.

Trade at your own risk!
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #35
  • Sep 19, 2008 1:12pm Sep 19, 2008 1:12pm
Very good two days for this pair. I cashed in some nice profits on NZDJPY and NZDCHF.

Still not sure if the bears won't push lower.
Greed and impatience are our greatest enemies.
  • #36
  • Sep 19, 2008 2:20pm Sep 19, 2008 2:20pm
We retraced the whole fall to 66ish. Looks like bears will eat this week.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #37
  • Sep 19, 2008 3:52pm Sep 19, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting DutchTrader
We retraced the whole fall to 66ish. Looks like bears will eat this week.
On a single day basis, N/J has nothing on A/J, up nearly 6% since 5pm yesterday!! Unbelievable..
  • #38
  • Sep 19, 2008 4:12pm Sep 19, 2008 4:12pm
Quoting Trader KGB
On a single day basis, N/J has nothing on A/J, up nearly 6% since 5pm yesterday!! Unbelievable..
NJs a snail compared to AJ indeed. What are your thoughts going forward? Seems this is all news driven.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #39
  • Sep 21, 2008 1:48pm Sep 21, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting DutchTrader
NJs a snail compared to AJ indeed. What are your thoughts going forward? Seems this is all news driven.
As a Libertarian, I am needless to say very appalled by the trillion dollar bailout. With that being said, I'm not about to go shorting risk assets for the next few weeks/months. I went long USD/JPY, but obviously AUD/JPY was the champion of the day. Price action on AUD/USD was highly indicative of massive short covering combined with new positioning. I'll be a buyer on any pullbacks in A/U or A/J.
  • #40
  • Sep 21, 2008 2:38pm Sep 21, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting Trader KGB
As a Libertarian, I am needless to say very appalled by the trillion dollar bailout. With that being said, I'm not about to go shorting risk assets for the next few weeks/months. I went long USD/JPY, but obviously AUD/JPY was the champion of the day. Price action on AUD/USD was highly indicative of massive short covering combined with new positioning. I'll be a buyer on any pullbacks in A/U or A/J.

Yep I don't agree with the bailout at all but it is what it is. AJ and AU should outperform this week for sure.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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