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  • #5,781
  • Sep 10, 2008 11:33am Sep 10, 2008 11:33am
market just looks dead all across the board
  • #5,782
  • Sep 10, 2008 11:48am Sep 10, 2008 11:48am
short @ 554 and 587, closed at 561 and 562, net 18 pips, too much work for too little gain. Think I'll watch for now.
  • #5,783
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:40pm Sep 10, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting prov1813
went short at 660, 617 and 626
closed at 583, 581 and 607 respectively

net 132 pips, thanks Bo.
nice trading.
i was just wondering about these trades

Trade 1 - Enter on rejection of short obviously. But my short is at 663.
Question 1 - Isnt 3 pips awful close to call it a rejection?
The candle close is at 650, would that have been a better entry?
Q1a - Where was your SL on this one?

You closed that trade at 583. Interesting! Using a 1 bar exit strategy would have taken you out at 610.
Q1b - How did you decide to close at 583? Lower TF? or the 1HR PB yesterday marked with the up arrow.

Trade 2 -
Q2 - was this an addon trade to the first?
Q2a - Enter when the next candle broke below the initial entry?
Q2b - Again what was your thinking on exit and SL there?

Trade 3 - Another add on i assume
Q3a - were those 3 trades all off the same 3 candles?

Q4 - Did the later rejection of the pivot interest you at all, marked as 4?

Thanks for posting the trade and good luck!
J
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  • #5,784
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:03pm Sep 10, 2008 4:03pm
Now the question is how would we have handled today?
1 - Obviously we have 2 intraday fibs still valid.
1a which has most precedence?

To handle this i will leave tuesday as the intraday fibs and put a swing move fib on monday??
2 - Bo comments? I dont know what i should call the monday fib now...

I do think, in terms of precedence, i'll be looking for the tuesday levels to hold to take us back long into the monday levels.

Then i'll be taking any rejection of mondays levels short.

So i know this is after the fact but here's how i would've played today...

3 - First entry long on red up arrow. Move stop to BE once it approaches the swing short level. MAybe take some profit there

After that im kinda winging it. i might have entred short on the rejection of the wing short. It doenst have much room to go, and i really dont know which fib has more precedence.

4 - Bo any guidance on what you'd have done from there?
4a - Gone short on open of candle 1?
4b - Where would your stop have been then? Way up above the long? Thats a lot of pips...

It would have worked out fine in the end but id have been tempted to take my loss at candle 2

I did go short on the break of that lovely pin on the pivot marked 3.
Just closed trade.
I should have closed soon after the double low at the same mark as mondays pin.

Thoughts on all that?
Your help is much appreciated!
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  • #5,785
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:11pm Sep 10, 2008 4:11pm
Quoting prov1813
short @ 554 and 587, closed at 561 and 562, net 18 pips, too much work for too little gain. Think I'll watch for now.
Would you please explain your thinking process as you take trades as Bob and Sherm do .
It is impressive that you get such results but it will be more interactive and educational if you share your thinking behind the trades too.
  • #5,786
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:12pm Sep 10, 2008 4:12pm
Now for tomorrow.
Well the levels almost the same as today, with monday short levels and tuesdays inside bar day (to borrow a james16 term)


Now what we have is a big bearish bar on monday from a daily POV. followed by two small inside ranging bar indicating indecision. whichever way these last 2 days break then it will be a decent move. I think it'll go short, but when?

Anyway. Theres a long scalp available now back to intraday levels of wednesday and maybe back to mondays levels. We'll see.

Im goosed after a tennis tournament so im not staying up for it.

Any comments on my crap analysis or fib placement?

Thanks
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  • #5,787
  • Sep 10, 2008 5:08pm Sep 10, 2008 5:08pm
Quoting jicjoc
Now the question is how would we have handled today?
1 - Obviously we have 2 intraday fibs still valid.
1a which has most precedence?

To handle this i will leave tuesday as the intraday fibs and put a swing move fib on monday??
2 - Bo comments? I dont know what i should call the monday fib now...

I do think, in terms of precedence, i'll be looking for the tuesday levels to hold to take us back long into the monday levels.

Then i'll be taking any rejection of mondays levels short.

So i know this is after the fact but here's how i would've played today...

3 - First entry long on red up arrow. Move stop to BE once it approaches the swing short level. MAybe take some profit there

After that im kinda winging it. i might have entred short on the rejection of the wing short. It doenst have much room to go, and i really dont know which fib has more precedence.

4 - Bo any guidance on what you'd have done from there?
4a - Gone short on open of candle 1?
4b - Where would your stop have been then? Way up above the long? Thats a lot of pips...

It would have worked out fine in the end but id have been tempted to take my loss at candle 2

I did go short on the break of that lovely pin on the pivot marked 3.
Just closed trade.
I should have closed soon after the double low at the same mark as mondays pin.

Thoughts on all that?
Your help is much appreciated!
If it gets into a confusing situation like it has worked itself into like this go back to the basics and zoom out, what does the bigger picture say. Since weve been in this downtrend we just recently had a small but noticeable retracement. On the Daily chart use the Retracement fib on this last little push up and what does it suggest ?
Now the same thing from the 4hr and 1 hr, what we see is the market has remained short since this daily retracement but the last few days has failed to push lower yet.
Even though weve seen some ranging lately its still trying to push lower.

Theres more in the next post...................
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  • #5,788
  • Sep 10, 2008 5:22pm Sep 10, 2008 5:22pm
Now if we use the swing fib and follow along with the market as it unfolds it looks something like this...From following these procedures in the last 2 posts you detirmine your plan of action and trade what you see.
Now we know were in a ranging market that wants to continue short so we follow with the swing and look for scalps until we break from this...knowing what our higher timeframe levels are.

One more post and Im done..........
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  • #5,789
  • Sep 10, 2008 5:26pm Sep 10, 2008 5:26pm
The Intraday is pulled out of the way but still being used on tuesday since we know the market is still short and still looking for the target of this fib so we can move on.
This post shows the last wave we are currently in and its sit and wait time because of time of day and the volitilty may be too low. If the ranging continues since weve tested the previous low we are looking for the next retracement and what happens from there.
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  • #5,790
  • Sep 10, 2008 5:30pm Sep 10, 2008 5:30pm
Quoting jicjoc
Now for tomorrow.
Well the levels almost the same as today, with monday short levels and tuesdays inside bar day (to borrow a james16 term)


Now what we have is a big bearish bar on monday from a daily POV. followed by two small inside ranging bar indicating indecision. whichever way these last 2 days break then it will be a decent move. I think it'll go short, but when?

Anyway. Theres a long scalp available now back to intraday levels of wednesday and maybe back to mondays levels. We'll see.

Im goosed after a tennis tournament so im not staying up for it.

Any comments on my crap analysis or fib placement?

Thanks
Correct we now look for some retracement and that will help us detirmine our next move. Continuing to think in scalp mode until we see a break from this ranging pattern.
I know the feeling Ive been doing some yard work for my Aunt and after 3 hours of weedeating my arms are shaking, gotta get some rest.
  • #5,791
  • Sep 10, 2008 5:54pm Sep 10, 2008 5:54pm
Bo, very nice job on explaining those charts, it helped me understand it better also. My trading has been better since i started using fibs.
  • #5,792
  • Sep 10, 2008 6:24pm Sep 10, 2008 6:24pm
Quoting Bobokus
Now if we use the swing fib and follow along with the market as it unfolds it looks something like this...From following these procedures in the last 2 posts you detirmine your plan of action and trade what you see.
Now we know were in a ranging market that wants to continue short so we follow with the swing and look for scalps until we break from this...knowing what our higher timeframe levels are.

One more post and Im done..........
Was there any way to filter the false break on the second chart ?
  • #5,793
  • Sep 10, 2008 6:41pm Sep 10, 2008 6:41pm
I think Bo would say it's a false break because only the wick of the candle touched/broke thru the fib level and not the body of the candle.

Quoting alex12
Was there any way to filter the false break on the second chart ?
  • #5,794
  • Sep 10, 2008 6:59pm Sep 10, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting greywolf238
I think Bo would say it's a false break because only the wick of the candle touched/broke thru the fib level and not the body of the candle.
\As I see it ,the candle has actually broken and closed above the long fib of the swing.Sorry ,I mean chart 1 not 2 of post 5785
  • #5,795
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:24pm Sep 10, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting alex12
Was there any way to filter the false break on the second chart ?
Not really they are going to happen, more so when the volitility is high and the pairs are ranging, using the previous 1 hour periods or candles as an exit point the loss would be minimal 10 maybe 15 pips.
  • #5,796
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:28pm Sep 10, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting Bobokus
Not really they are going to happen, more so when the volitility is high and the pairs are ranging, using the previous 1 hour periods or candles as an exit point the loss would be minimal 10 maybe 15 pips.
Makes sense .Thanks.
  • #5,797
  • Sep 10, 2008 7:30pm Sep 10, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting alex12
\As I see it ,the candle has actually broken and closed above the long fib of the swing.Sorry ,I mean chart 1 not 2 of post 5785
Thats right there was a candle opening above the long level which would indicate the pair moving into a long condition, It failed a few hours later and a stop below the previous lows would have minimized the risk or loss on the false break. After several hours of no progress in the long and long wicks on the tops of the candles it isnt a good sign for a long trade anyway and a good reason to reduce your risk at that point.
  • #5,798
  • Edited 7:53pm Sep 10, 2008 7:41pm | Edited 7:53pm
Here is the trade that gave me 150 pips today...in the nzd/usd
Its a 4 hour trade

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and here is the other trade that gave me 80 pips today as well

I have 5 percent of that trade still open...stop is at break even on it already

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I am up 500 pips like I told you...I am a very happy camper...
  • #5,799
  • Sep 11, 2008 12:45am Sep 11, 2008 12:45am
I am currently over 40 pips in my short....
I look at the majors and pulled my trade like you tought me Bo....I know crosses to hold their own desteny...I have trades in those majors in that direction as well..

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  • #5,800
  • Sep 11, 2008 1:03am Sep 11, 2008 1:03am
I have closed portion of trade due to price failing to close below intraday low...

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