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Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Daily Scalping

  • #601
  • Feb 18, 2007 11:50am Feb 18, 2007 11:50am
Quoting JillyB
By the way, is anyone trading tomorrow.

My broker tells me it's Presidents day and the US stock-market is closed.

Looking back on the figures I have for the last holidays - Martin Luther King day, made a profit. Thanksgiving - made a loss (major holiday though) and Labor Day - made a loss.

My instinct is not to trade when the US has a holiday as the volume is so much lighter.

What's everyone else's view on this?

I am putting in my normal trades today at 00:00 GMT and trading tomorrow as well.
  • #602
  • Feb 18, 2007 12:10pm Feb 18, 2007 12:10pm
Peter, After looking at the calendar for the day, I wouldn't have been in play at all, probably not Tuesday either. I have been burned by news way to many times. It didn't even occur to me that it was a news spike for some reason(way to many charts yesterday). The news traders have made slippage so ridiculous it is nearly impossible to be productive around those times. This coming Wednesday I would consider staying on the sidelines with 3 high impact events for cable and careful on any JPY crosses early in the day. Overall, I will stick to what the backtesting has shown over a year versus a bad week as far as Sl and SAR are concerned. I look to maximize statistical probability that an event will happen more than not. Backtesting shows that, and only that. It also shows that the 3 day reverse does help. That doesn't mean that I will just blindly follow that part of the system. If I see evidence to support a reversal, a continuance, or to stay out all together I will.

This system works, and works very well. You would be hard pressed to find any EA that tests 4500-5000 chart pips a year without martingale or some gimmick involved.This one doesn't even have a single indicator, thats impressive. Choose your risk profile and roll with it.

JillyB,
Find my results attached on max trades. limiting to 2 per day helps with overall DD, but could limit profit . Choose YOUR tolerable risk. If you limit to 2 per day, and every trade for the week results in a loss your down 400 pips, me, I could be down 800-1000.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Maxtrades.zip   90 KB | 621 downloads
  • #603
  • Feb 18, 2007 12:33pm Feb 18, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting C.E.O.
Peter, After looking at the calendar for the day, I wouldn't have been in play at all, probably not Tuesday either. I have been burned by news way to many times. It didn't even occur to me that it was a news spike for some reason(way to many charts yesterday). The news traders have made slippage so ridiculous it is nearly impossible to be productive around those times. This coming Wednesday I would consider staying on the sidelines with 3 high impact events for cable and careful on any JPY crosses early in the day. Overall, I will stick to what the backtesting has shown over a year versus a bad week as far as Sl and SAR are concerned. I look to maximize statistical probability that an event will happen more than not. Backtesting shows that, and only that. It also shows that the 3 day reverse does help. That doesn't mean that I will just blindly follow that part of the system. If I see evidence to support a reversal, a continuance, or to stay out all together I will.

This system works, and works very well. You would be hard pressed to find any EA that tests 4500-5000 chart pips a year without martingale or some gimmick involved.This one doesn't even have a single indicator, thats impressive. Choose your risk profile and roll with it.

JillyB,
Find my results attached on max trades. limiting to 2 per day helps with overall DD, but could limit profit . Choose YOUR tolerable risk. If you limit to 2 per day, and every trade for the week results in a loss your down 400 pips, me, I could be down 800-1000.
Nice testing CEO.

It would still be interesting to see what the results on a daily chart would be.
TKimbles MM system also increases equity exposure/account size. I noticed the back testing doesn't increase lot sizes as your account increases. Profits would be substantially higher if we could factor that in... but I'm presuming the backtest software has a limitation here??

thx for the data
  • #604
  • Feb 18, 2007 12:53pm Feb 18, 2007 12:53pm
Quoting C.E.O.
Back on topic.
As per TK's methods the SL of 40 proves to be the best for cable so I wont go into details. I then moved to the close hour. There are BIG differences in profit and drawdown. The best times to shut it down are around the 1700 hour give or take an hour. This made a difference in profit from the end of day close at appx 2500 pips to the close at 1700 appx 4000 pips. This obviously reduced the drawdown as well. This inst surprising. In general people are entering the market around London open and begin closing positions around the lunchtime US session causing a retrace. A lot of times this retrace continues into the Frankfurt/ London opens. There isnt a variable for open time so I will have a look at the code to see if I can change it and see if waiting until the euro sessions to open. If I cant i will move to max losses and see how that goes.

Attached are my reports named with the close hour at the end.
Open is at midnight GMT and close is at 1700 GMT? Then you stay out for the next 7 hours and open again at midnight? Thanks.
  • #605
  • Feb 18, 2007 1:01pm Feb 18, 2007 1:01pm
i have carried over my trades, so am committed.

Quoting JillyB
By the way, is anyone trading tomorrow.

My broker tells me it's Presidents day and the US stock-market is closed.

Looking back on the figures I have for the last holidays - Martin Luther King day, made a profit. Thanksgiving - made a loss (major holiday though) and Labor Day - made a loss.

My instinct is not to trade when the US has a holiday as the volume is so much lighter.

What's everyone else's view on this?
  • #606
  • Edited 7:12pm Feb 18, 2007 2:06pm | Edited 7:12pm
I am LONG the GBP/JPY becuause of a slight uptick in the close of trading on Friday.

TK
  • #607
  • Feb 18, 2007 2:12pm Feb 18, 2007 2:12pm
Appreciate you keeping us updated on your positions....

Thanks
  • #608
  • Feb 18, 2007 2:47pm Feb 18, 2007 2:47pm
Quoting tkimble
I am LONG the GBP/USD becuause of a slight uptick in the close of trading on Friday.

TK
TK, who do you use for your data on MT4 (or other charting program)? I have looked at FXDD, Alpari, IBFX, FXCM and all show a slight down day on Fri.

Thanks!
  • #609
  • Feb 18, 2007 3:15pm Feb 18, 2007 3:15pm
Quoting C.E.O.
Peter, After looking at the calendar for the day, I wouldn't have been in play at all, probably not Tuesday either. I have been burned by news way to many times. It didn't even occur to me that it was a news spike for some reason(way to many charts yesterday). The news traders have made slippage so ridiculous it is nearly impossible to be productive around those times. This coming Wednesday I would consider staying on the sidelines with 3 high impact events for cable and careful on any JPY crosses early in the day. Overall, I will stick to what the backtesting has shown over a year versus a bad week as far as Sl and SAR are concerned. I look to maximize statistical probability that an event will happen more than not. Backtesting shows that, and only that. It also shows that the 3 day reverse does help. That doesn't mean that I will just blindly follow that part of the system. If I see evidence to support a reversal, a continuance, or to stay out all together I will.

This system works, and works very well. You would be hard pressed to find any EA that tests 4500-5000 chart pips a year without martingale or some gimmick involved.This one doesn't even have a single indicator, thats impressive. Choose your risk profile and roll with it.

JillyB,
Find my results attached on max trades. limiting to 2 per day helps with overall DD, but could limit profit . Choose YOUR tolerable risk. If you limit to 2 per day, and every trade for the week results in a loss your down 400 pips, me, I could be down 800-1000.
Many thanks CEO -I assume these results included SAR at 40? -very illuminating on the multiple trades front..you may be right about last week being a bad week to judge.

Have you looked back to early 2005 which was generally a bad year for trending systems?
  • #610
  • Feb 18, 2007 3:25pm Feb 18, 2007 3:25pm
Thanks for the work you have put in on the system...and making the results available to us...Have you also tested the talking profit at 100 pips scenario?
  • #611
  • Edited Feb 19, 2007 7:50am Feb 18, 2007 4:06pm | Edited Feb 19, 2007 7:50am
Hi TK
Please take a look at the link {link removed, see rule 3}
the g-u go up for 50 pips and also the g-j go up 40 pips I think that the charts of monday will start with a big gap up. what do you think we should do? its for 22.00 GMT

rgds
simon
  • #612
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:31pm Feb 18, 2007 4:31pm
Stunew,
You would get the exact same results on a daily, 4H, 1H, 30M, 15M, 5M, 1M. If you were using indicators the results would be entirely different, but this is pure price action.
It shows the days price action much better. Clearly better results with exit/entry times. I can see a doji on a day candle, but on a 15m TF I can see what may have caused that doji. Was it a big spike with a retracement the rest of the day, was it bouncing like a superball or just stuck in a meandering range. Personally these are things I want to know to make a better educated guess on what direction the market may take me. You simply cant find out what is going right or wrong on a system if it buys or sells multiple times on one candle. We are all doing the same thing. I am not doing a different trade on every hour candle. Look at it like a magnifying glass on the day candle, thats it.

Im not going to post what lot sizes do to your account. I dont want newbies risking to much, but the results are astonishing.


Locuts,
That is correct. Look back at your charts on an hourly timeframe and make a judgement for yourself. 1700 may not be your ideal time if your data feed is +- a couple GMT hours. Just look for the times when the move is generally over and people are closing positions. Closing positions are trades and that is why you see a retrace. You own that much currency until someone takes it off your hands so to speak. GENERALLY around NY lunchtime or shortly after is when things slow down and profits are taken off from intraday traders.

There isnt a whole lot of right or wrong to trade this system. I am confident it will make a basket of pips as it was first presented. Tomorrow may be great to close at 1700, or may be better to let it run all day. This system will be much better for people who know why the market does what it does, technical analysis, support and resistance, price action, patterns, and fundamentals, trading manually. NO INDICATOR OR SYSTEM CAN REPLACE THOSE! All newbies should do there selves a favor and read all about it. The BIG players arent using a system with 20 indicators off some forum. They are using support and resistance, trendlines, fibos, price action, etc. Learn it, understand it, apply it.


Peter,
I have taken a look to 2005. It could survive with some modifications, initially a reduction in the SL, and SAR would be necessary, but not as profitable as 06. Heres my take on that though. I kind of look at things like this, a weighted moving average,being most recent data has more relevance. Hopefully we wont see a 2005 market for some time maybe never. FOREX has made some changes since then, the biggest being the amount of players. Lots of people are flocking to it looking for riches, and thats lots of new, uneducated money to take. The more water you dump in, the bigger the waves. Im sure some wont agree with that, and thats fine. Its just the way I see it, and the way i think things will head. I mentioned news. Not so long ago you could trade news, and come out big. Look at it now, brokers cant handle it hence the spreads.


BHoliday,
I started to look into the take profit but the dailyscalp EA doesnt work in this regard. It opens a new position in the opposite direction immediately. I would like to stick to one EA as i would know the results are correct in comparison. I did run some with rhythm and they werent as promising as I would have liked. I do think I will move on with it for now to test opening times and the TP. Results would vary from what I already have but will give results from a baseline none the less. Either that or G/J to get some initial results.


Simonr, my feed is open and there were 40 pip gaps.
  • #613
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:39pm Feb 18, 2007 4:39pm
Now i know why you are the CEO...

Thanks again for your efforts...
  • #614
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:42pm Feb 18, 2007 4:42pm
Quoting C.E.O.
Peter, After looking at the calendar for the day, I wouldn't have been in play at all, probably not Tuesday either. I have been burned by news way to many times. It didn't even occur to me that it was a news spike for some reason(way to many charts yesterday). The news traders have made slippage so ridiculous it is nearly impossible to be productive around those times. This coming Wednesday I would consider staying on the sidelines with 3 high impact events for cable and careful on any JPY crosses early in the day. Overall, I will stick to what the backtesting has shown over a year versus a bad week as far as Sl and SAR are concerned. I look to maximize statistical probability that an event will happen more than not. Backtesting shows that, and only that. It also shows that the 3 day reverse does help. That doesn't mean that I will just blindly follow that part of the system. If I see evidence to support a reversal, a continuance, or to stay out all together I will.

This system works, and works very well. You would be hard pressed to find any EA that tests 4500-5000 chart pips a year without martingale or some gimmick involved.This one doesn't even have a single indicator, thats impressive. Choose your risk profile and roll with it.

JillyB,
Find my results attached on max trades. limiting to 2 per day helps with overall DD, but could limit profit . Choose YOUR tolerable risk. If you limit to 2 per day, and every trade for the week results in a loss your down 400 pips, me, I could be down 800-1000.
CEO,

Thanks for running those variations. It's easy to see the profit difference now, between limiting it to 2 losing trades per day, or 3, or 4, or even 5.

I see you've taken the exit time as being 17.00 for the trades - is this what you consider the optimum? From first glance I'd been looking at 15.30 as the optimum - but since I wouldn't be home from work at this time, I'd looked to exit the trades at 19.00 - when I would be home.

I'd also placed a take profit order at +100 pips, and for the last six months this strategy (max 2 trades per day and take profit at 100 pips) had netted 1625 pips (or 16250 profit if you were trading 1 lot as your modelling test). My six months of testing has been done manually, with pen and paper. However if I look at your report for max 2 trades per day and exiting at 17.00 shows 42289.99-25499.95 = 16790.04 - (21st August to 5th January)which is quite similar, the only differences being the exit time and the fact that you are not using a take profit order.
  • #615
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:00pm Feb 18, 2007 5:00pm
OK so for the daily tk system Rhythm EA we appear to be concluding that it should be a 40 pip SAR system with max trades set to 5, entry to 00GMT exit at 17.00 GMT and leave it at that...
  • #616
  • Feb 18, 2007 6:33pm Feb 18, 2007 6:33pm
Are you saying for every open position you use a 40 BE and move the SAR to BE?

For example...lets say i start the day long at 19640...it goes to 19680 and my stop moves to BE and i place a SAR at 19640 going short.

Do i also have 40 pip BE on my short? So if it goes to 19600 my stop moves to BE and my SAR long goes to 19640 again?

And if i open long at 19640 with a stop loss at 19600 and it hits 19600 stopping me out...do i have a 40 BE on my short...meaning that if it hits 19560 my stop is 19600 and my new long SAR is now 19600...or would i keep it at the original 19640...?

Hope this isn't to confusing...
  • #617
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:11pm Feb 18, 2007 7:11pm
Quoting Al_Have1
TK, who do you use for your data on MT4 (or other charting program)? I have looked at FXDD, Alpari, IBFX, FXCM and all show a slight down day on Fri.

Thanks!
I am LONG the GBP/JPY from the uptick that is clearly indicated on the attached chart. If we are not all looking at the same charts, all bets are off..

HappyTrading,

TK
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf GBPJPY,Daily.pdf   21 KB | 635 downloads
  • #618
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:25pm Feb 18, 2007 7:25pm
Currently LONG GBP/JPY from Fridays up bar at 232.72. Up 42 PIPs with a Profit Target of 100 PIPS (233.72)...

TK
  • #619
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:30pm Feb 18, 2007 7:30pm
While I understand why people love to back test, you should know by now that I am not a fan because I make a partial living from my trading and am very confident in this trading system. My only caution is that try not to get caught up in the Back Testing Craze. It will dampen your appetite for trading and may actually become and artificial barrier to relatively simple profitable trading.

Just some obervations....

TK
  • #620
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:44pm Feb 18, 2007 7:44pm
JillyB,
1700 would be the optimum time for the backtests on alpari data. I am not quite sure what GMT shift they are and what GMT shift your broker is. Open an hourly GBP/USD chart that shows the opening on 2/16/07 00:00. On my backtesting data, this candle shows an open of 1.9507, high 1.9514, low 1.9503, close 1.9511. Find that candle on your chart that is close to those numbers. They may vary slightly but you should be able to find it. If on your chart it shows it as the 00:00 candle, you are on the same time. If it is 01:00 you would subtract 1 hour to my data meaning closing at 16:00 would be what you are after. Just add or subtract the hours accordingly. AGAIN this is only statistically the best time. If you feel better closing it manually, do it. You mentioned 15:30. You could be 2 hours behind the data.

Peter,
You are correct that testing shows just that. But dont yell at me if you loose 5 trades tomorrow or the basic system did better

Bholiday,
Every trade that moves 40 in your favor, your reverse order becomes your initial entry point, so your scenario is correct.

Quote
or would i keep it at the original 19640...
NO



I have started on the GBP/JPY to find some good settings. The bad news is I cant get through 6 weeks without wiping the account. I have started with the original rules, no BE, run all day, ect. Cant find a SL that works. I really wanted to get a baseline to start with, but i dont think its possible. I will keep you informed.

Good luck this week!
Thanks TK for the method.
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