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NZD/JPY Primary Trading Hut

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 3, 2008 5:21pm Sep 3, 2008 5:21pm
Welcome to NZD/JPY Primary Thread.

We reviewed several threads concerning this carrytrade pair, but analyses are missing important correlation information about the pair.

Also, we found out very experience traders that are not sharing their insight over this pair, so this is an open forum for all theories, strategies or analysis concerning this magnificent pair.

Thread Rules

-Please post only analysis concerning NZD/JPY or correlations that affect the pair
-All opinions are welcomed and encouraged but please, post some analysis so everybody can learn
-There is no such thing as bad analysis or good one, they are just points of view, please do not argue over stupid points.
-Sharing information is crucial, especially if you have developed some degree of experience with this pair. So please share.
-Have fun, this pair is probably the best for carrytrading.

Welcome everyone, and enjoy your stay.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #2
  • Sep 3, 2008 5:23pm Sep 3, 2008 5:23pm
Why Trade with NZD/JPY

-It’s a huge interest paying pair, so you will get huge daily interest for holding longs into carrymode
-It’s a very stable pair, since its not volatile at all (Typically less than 150 pips daily), you are able to open huge long positions will less risk ratio, you will earn much more than GBP/JPY and with lower risks.
-Its easy to predict, just need to watch EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/NZD.


This pair is a carrytrade pair, if you are planning to scalp it, you will not make any money from it, just buy the dips and your are in.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #3
  • Sep 3, 2008 5:38pm Sep 3, 2008 5:38pm
Wed 03-09-2008 Mid term overview



Current levels suggest the downtrend continuation for the NZD/JPY, we are waiting for best price to dump our carrytrade positions taken at 73.45 and waiting for the downtrend to resume from 73.15 to lower levels, probably 73.26, if this level is breached we are expecting to get to 67.60 in the following weeks which is a major support zone. If this is achieved we are planning to long big time from this level.

Probably the GBP rate news will move GBP/JPY generating a huge dumping of carrypositions resulting in depreciation of JPY accelerating current NZD/JPY behavior, but this is still to be confirmed tomorrow.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #4
  • Sep 3, 2008 8:49pm Sep 3, 2008 8:49pm
Update:

Confirmed Downtrend Movement driven by JPY next Intraday support 73.30
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #5
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:23am Sep 4, 2008 10:23am
73.30 has been taken out, we're headed for 71.50 and 70.90 now
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6
  • Sep 8, 2008 10:56pm Sep 8, 2008 10:56pm
Thanks a lot for starting this thread. I hope to be regular here. Please post your insights and comments.
  • #7
  • Sep 9, 2008 12:26am Sep 9, 2008 12:26am
I have a buy limit order @ 69,80.

But if things won't change soon, we might go lower. It would be a very nice discount price in my opinion for this pair.

I'm all for building a carry trade position long-term.
Greed and impatience are our greatest enemies.
  • #8
  • Sep 10, 2008 6:35am Sep 10, 2008 6:35am
Interest rate is due in few hours. If they really reduce 0.50 than it can go lower I guess. Lets see.
  • #9
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:39pm Sep 10, 2008 2:39pm
wonder will they let the int-rate unchanged this time.. I have long NZD/JPY Im not expecting they would cut the rate rapidly
Money often costs too much...
  • #10
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:00pm Sep 10, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting tokyobreeze
Thanks a lot for starting this thread. I hope to be regular here. Please post your insights and comments.
Welcome my friend, I hope we will gather huge amount of info about this pair.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #11
  • Sep 10, 2008 3:04pm Sep 10, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting tokyobreeze
Interest rate is due in few hours. If they really reduce 0.50 than it can go lower I guess. Lets see.
I agree, if the rate is reduced even that .25, we are going to see huge amount of long dumping for carrytrade positions during the following hours.

Lets see what happens
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #12
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:04pm Sep 10, 2008 4:04pm
congratulation to all the bears
Money often costs too much...
  • #13
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:22pm Sep 10, 2008 4:22pm
The have cut the rate by 0.5% which is more than what market expected. Already it has gone through a nearly 100 pips drop within 15 mins of the news release. The true extent of drop would be fully realized when Sydney opens in less than an hour and tokyo opens in couple of hours. Looks like the downtrend would continue.

Anyone for catching this falling knife and go long from 69~? Hmm..it might go to 67~ soon, who knows!
  • #14
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:24pm Sep 10, 2008 4:24pm
Quoting tokyobreeze
The have cut the rate by 0.5% which is more than what market expected. Already it has gone through a nearly 100 pips drop within 15 mins of the news release. The true extent of drop would be fully realized when Sydney opens in less than an hour and tokyo opens in couple of hours. Looks like the downtrend would continue.

Anyone for catching this falling knife and go long from 69~? Hmm..it might go to 67~ soon, who knows!
I closed my long just before the drop and add short on NZD/JPY and NZD/USD , gosh I began to like this pair
Money often costs too much...
  • #15
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:26pm Sep 10, 2008 4:26pm
Quoting indotrader
I closed my long just before the drop and add long on NZD/JPY and NZD/USD , gosh I began to like this pair
LONG?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #16
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:31pm Sep 10, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting DutchTrader
LONG?
I was too excited DutchTrader, I meant short (edited already)
Money often costs too much...
  • #17
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:33pm Sep 10, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting indotrader
I was too excited DutchTrader, I meant short (edited already)
Phew, I was starting to pray for you
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #18
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:34pm Sep 10, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Phew, I was starting to pray for you
LMAOOO Thanks !!
Money often costs too much...
  • #19
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:38pm Sep 10, 2008 4:38pm
Quoting indotrader
I closed my long just before the drop and add long on NZD/JPY and NZD/USD , gosh I began to like this pair
Nice that you could close before the drop!

Personally I am waiting until few hours to rethink my standpoint. My interest on this pair is on long side (though current condition contradicts of course). I would go long at some point. Question is - when will be the good time :-) For now, I have a limit buy at 67.90 which I am planning to revise with time.
  • #20
  • Sep 10, 2008 4:46pm Sep 10, 2008 4:46pm
Quoting tokyobreeze
Nice that you could close before the drop!

From which levels you are going long? Adding positions with the drop?

Personally I am waiting until few hours to rethink my standpoint. My interest on this pair is on long side (though current condition contradicts of course). I would go long at some point. Question is - when will be the good time :-) For now, I have a limit buy at 67.90 which I am planning to revise with time.
I rarely trade this pair tokyobreeze, I was reading many articles about NZD today, added some drawings then I decided to close my long and add shorts, my long (small lot) was at 80 area added one short just before the drop and will add more heavy lot to maximize the profit

I dont know about long, Im quite new to NZD, I havent learn much
Money often costs too much...
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