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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,561
  • Edited 12:42am Sep 8, 2008 12:31am | Edited 12:42am
i am very busy today am on a trip to Europe.
So cannot trade but if i could i think i will not take any position because messy day.
better to wait tomorrow to start building a new hedge position.

i will explain later why the fanny mac stuff was technically up eur/chf
  • #1,562
  • Sep 8, 2008 1:52am Sep 8, 2008 1:52am
spieler, enjoy your time in europe. This is the best thread by far! Thank you for sharing this with us
  • #1,563
  • Sep 8, 2008 4:42am Sep 8, 2008 4:42am
Quoting JuniorFX
Mackus... Are u mackanathan from NUS?
Sorry, No.
  • #1,564
  • Sep 8, 2008 7:56pm Sep 8, 2008 7:56pm
Took my first long position 1.5935
  • #1,565
  • Edited 10:55am Sep 9, 2008 5:07am | Edited 10:55am
10:35gmt entered shorts at eurchf +0,26% 1,6005

eurusd 1,4195

usdchf 1,1275

I will take another short close to the 200sma on 1h chart at eurchf 1,6040


edit ca 16:15gmt

closed positions at about eurchf +0,10% div at 1,5940

close eurusd 1.4172 = + 20 pips

close usdchf 1.1250 = + 25 pips

total = + 45 pips - (2x1,5 spread) = 42 pips


Regards
  • #1,566
  • Sep 9, 2008 5:13am Sep 9, 2008 5:13am
That long position is looking really smart right now, nice.
I just entered short at EUR/CHF 1.6014, +29% from Monday close.
  • #1,567
  • Sep 9, 2008 9:38am Sep 9, 2008 9:38am
Quoting Big1red9
Took my first long position 1.5935
Closed it at 1.5982

Missed the .25% mark - was asleep.
  • #1,568
  • Sep 9, 2008 11:12am Sep 9, 2008 11:12am
Hi to all
Anybody using any sort of EA to manage the trades. I looked at swiss army ea but I am not sure it can do what we need to .
Any suggestions for managing the trades without having to be glued to the screen. Spieler system is indeed a very very good system but you can miss some good opportunities if you are not infront of your computer
  • #1,569
  • Sep 9, 2008 11:22am Sep 9, 2008 11:22am
Quoting harar
Hi to all
Anybody using any sort of EA to manage the trades. I looked at swiss army ea but I am not sure it can do what we need to .
Any suggestions for managing the trades without having to be glued to the screen. Spieler system is indeed a very very good system but you can miss some good opportunities if you are not infront of your computer
Hi,

you can set alarms for the certain eurchf levels so you know, when they are hit. Like this you're not glued to the screen, but of course you'd have to be in range of the speakers to be able to hear the alarm.

I have backtested this system on 4h timeframe at candle close and it has been profitable also. Like this you'd check every 4 hours.


Regards
  • #1,570
  • Sep 9, 2008 11:39am Sep 9, 2008 11:39am
Quoting ashes
Hi,

I have backtested this system on 4h timeframe at candle close and it has been profitable also. Like this you'd check every 4 hours.
I've just realized that the SpielersHedgeDivergence v_3 Indicator behaves somehow differently when backtesting on mt4 strategytester. Has anybody experienced simmilar differences?

I guess I have to backtest again not using the indicator but using the candle open at 0:00 values. I'll definitely come back with more questions later.

But still something to take to consideration, because even in extremely uncertain market-conditions like sept oct nov dec 2007 the system would have been profitable backtesting on strategytester with the indicator. Of course, nerves were necessary to hold multiple positions for four months. But in the end the indicated exit would have been profitable; I just tested one position, about 800 pips as a result, but on an short hedge.

Regards
  • #1,571
  • Edited 5:19pm Sep 9, 2008 1:49pm | Edited 5:19pm
Hi all,

I've just backtested this amazing hedging strategy from jan 16th until feb 14th.

I didn't juse the indicator on strategytester this time.

I marked opening price 0:00 for every day and +40 +80 +120, -40, -80, -120 pip levels.

I have run this backtest on 4h timeframe and always waited until candle close.

I used a conservative approach to always close when 0 was hit or passed at candle close.

Two trades took about three weeks to close, but in the meantime many other trades were triggered and closed.

26 Trades all together, of which none was a loser.

Subtracting spread of 3 pips for each pair, unbelievable +1702 pips have been achieved in less than a month!

I have entered trades 24/7 whithout regarding sleeping hours etc.

This kind of backtesting takes a lot more time but it also shows the potential of the system on a 4h timeframe, so one can have a life while trading.


Regards


PS: More months to test... more info to come.


Edit:
I attatched the data of my test. the total of pips has been altered because I have forgotten about the second trade that took three weeks to close. So if we take off 26x3x2 pips then that should be the net, calculating about 1,5 pips spread per trade.
in future I should note how long it took for each trade to close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,572
  • Edited 3:40pm Sep 9, 2008 3:37pm | Edited 3:40pm
Is this back test using mutiple accounts thus running mutiple positions?

Quoting ashes
Hi all,

I've just backtested this amazing hedging strategy from jan 16th until feb 14th.

I didn't juse the indicator on strategytester this time.

I marked opening price 0:00 for every day and +40 +80 +120, -40, -80, -120 pip levels.

I have run this backtest on 4h timeframe and always waited until candle close.

I used a conservative approach to always close when 0 was hit or passed at candle close.

Two trades took about three weeks to close, but in the meantime many other trades were triggered and closed.

26 Trades all together, of which none was a loser.

Subtracting spread of 3 pips for each pair, unbelievable +1702 pips have been achieved in less than a month!

I have entered trades 24/7 whithout regarding sleeping hours etc.

This kind of backtesting takes a lot more time but it also shows the potential of the system on a 4h timeframe, so one can have a life while trading.


Regards


PS: More months to test... more info to come.
  • #1,573
  • Sep 9, 2008 3:50pm Sep 9, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting redart007
Is this back test using mutiple accounts thus running mutiple positions?
Multiple positions on one account. One could also use one account for longs and a subaccount for shorts. Of course, MoneyManagement is important.
  • #1,574
  • Edited Sep 10, 2008 2:07am Sep 9, 2008 4:04pm | Edited Sep 10, 2008 2:07am
entered long at eurchf 1,5923

eurusd 1,4135

usdchf 1,1266


edit 10 sep 8:00 gmt

eurchf at 1,5962, 0%

eurusd closed 1,4163 = +28

usdchf closed 1,1271 = +5

total = + 33 pips


Regards
  • #1,575
  • Sep 9, 2008 7:51pm Sep 9, 2008 7:51pm
Long EURCHF @ 1.59321
  • #1,576
  • Sep 9, 2008 8:04pm Sep 9, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting mackus
That long position is looking really smart right now, nice.
I just entered short at EUR/CHF 1.6014, +29% from Monday close.
Closed the trade back at Monday's close for a nice profit.
  • #1,577
  • Sep 9, 2008 9:14pm Sep 9, 2008 9:14pm
Open short at EUR/CHF 1.5955. One thing that I will have to get passed with this system is to ignore what I percieve to be the trend in the EUR/USD to take trades in the opposite direction if thats what the price action is saying to do. Right now going long EUR/USD seems so absolutely rediculous because I think its on its way back to the mid 1.30s. However, Big1Red9 is booking profits on the long side trades that I pass on. Love the system, lots to learn.
  • #1,578
  • Sep 9, 2008 11:18pm Sep 9, 2008 11:18pm
Quoting Big1red9
Long EURCHF @ 1.59321
Closed it at 1.59666.

In addition to the EURUSD/USDCHF positions I bought EURCHF

34.5 pips on the EURCHF
-5.1 pips on EURUSD
38.85 pips on USDCHF


Happy Trading
BR
  • #1,579
  • Sep 10, 2008 12:39am Sep 10, 2008 12:39am
At present I am only playing the long side of the market for a few reasons.
1. The swap rates which can cause market sentiment to the upside
2. The potential for earning 100's of percent per year in interest.
3. Until I have a way to monitor the potential new positions and positions in play, I don't want to live on my computer 24 hours a day.

Given the average range of the pairs, the average of that range from the close and the fact that there will be price pullbacks for both long and shorts, I think both can be traded with equal success.

Quoting mackus
Open short at EUR/CHF 1.5955. One thing that I will have to get passed with this system is to ignore what I percieve to be the trend in the EUR/USD to take trades in the opposite direction if thats what the price action is saying to do. Right now going long EUR/USD seems so absolutely rediculous because I think its on its way back to the mid 1.30s. However, Big1Red9 is booking profits on the long side trades that I pass on. Love the system, lots to learn.
  • #1,580
  • Sep 10, 2008 2:14am Sep 10, 2008 2:14am
I must have done something wrong. I opened a trade long both pairs, when EURCHF indicator was -.25%.

Then I closed MetaTrader and went on with my life.

When I opened MetaTrader next day i saw EURCHF indicator was at +-0.00 but I had substantial loss on my trade. I thought entering long at -.25 and closing at 0 would results in profits?

I'm not sure how to approch this to find the error?
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