For now
Let it break.
The equilibrium for 7.75 % is at 0.6820, we are oversold at the moment since all participants are aware of the recession and are expecting the rates to reach at least 6.50 % until stop falling, my expectations are based on statistics and show the OCR at 6.25 % in 2009.
The downfall of the currency should continue since the expectations for the future inflation are satisfying. The June inflation was primarily based on the high tradable inflation (A term which is used only in NZ as far as I know
) a.k.a. higher prices in goods featured in the trade balance. Since the commodity prices have loosen up a bit, the RBNZ is counting on a slowing overall inflation and a open way for further cuts. Nevertheless we shouldn't forget that we are trading future Cash Rate at the moment and not the actual current rate itself, so good news for the new zealand economy would have a greater impact as bad ones, since they are expected. I haven't done the maths for a long term target yet, but will do once a statement of the reserve bank is out.
The downfall of the currency should continue since the expectations for the future inflation are satisfying. The June inflation was primarily based on the high tradable inflation (A term which is used only in NZ as far as I know
) a.k.a. higher prices in goods featured in the trade balance. Since the commodity prices have loosen up a bit, the RBNZ is counting on a slowing overall inflation and a open way for further cuts. Nevertheless we shouldn't forget that we are trading future Cash Rate at the moment and not the actual current rate itself, so good news for the new zealand economy would have a greater impact as bad ones, since they are expected. I haven't done the maths for a long term target yet, but will do once a statement of the reserve bank is out.
- #265
- Sep 9, 2008 10:24am Sep 9, 2008 10:24am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
The equilibrium for 7.75 % is at 0.6820, we are oversold at the moment since all participants are aware of the recession and are expecting the rates to reach at least 6.50 % until stop falling, my expectations are based on statistics and show the OCR at 6.25 % in 2009.
The downfall of the currency should continue since the expectations for the future inflation are satisfying. The June inflation was primarily based on the high tradable inflation (A term which is used only in NZ as far as I know
NZD cannot fall when eu gu au will be up.
All we have do is wait for yen sell off(stox bullrun).
I am very courius ur long term target too.
Cheers
- #266
- Sep 9, 2008 10:46am Sep 9, 2008 10:46am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
My prediction is simply based on waves cycles,
NZD cannot fall when eu gu au will be up.
All we have do is wait for yen sell off(stox bullrun).
I am very courius ur long term target too.
Cheers
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #267
- Sep 9, 2008 12:07pm Sep 9, 2008 12:07pm
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Invincible | 3,619 Posts
yeah
no one said that will be easy
no one said that will be easy
- #268
- Sep 9, 2008 12:26pm Sep 9, 2008 12:26pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
yeah
no one said that will be easy
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #270
- Sep 9, 2008 2:08pm Sep 9, 2008 2:08pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
I've always been a fan of the "counter the herd" strategy ... but this guy is just being stupid.
Seriously ... wtf should THIS mean ?
Yep, that's why I said good sense of humour because he's damn sure a comedian. BTW 6500 is my target through the next sessions leading up to the rate decision. Thoughts?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
ngrats...
- #273
- Sep 9, 2008 4:55pm Sep 9, 2008 4:55pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
The market is oversold at the moment, the expected rate is at 7,5 % and if I was thinking there is any hope for a better GDP in the end of September I would be playing for a retrace right now, but there isn't any. I expect a negative statement, that is why I'm not going to close the short positions before it.
As soon as the GDP data comes out I will let you know what it is 
It will be somewhere between 0.5600 and 0.5850 I guess.
P.S. Under "long term" I mean the long term in the forex market, which is "more than one month" and not the general economic definition, where under long term investment we are talking about more than 5 years
I am very courius ur long term target too.
It will be somewhere between 0.5600 and 0.5850 I guess.P.S. Under "long term" I mean the long term in the forex market, which is "more than one month" and not the general economic definition, where under long term investment we are talking about more than 5 years
thanks in advance
- #278
- Sep 10, 2008 2:15pm Sep 10, 2008 2:15pm
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
I will keep holding my short then.. looking forward to add more