NZDUSD Discussion

I'm bullish on the Nzd this week

Can you explain why?
Trying to learn...

Me too. We should get a good bounce off of that low from Aug '07, especially if cuts are already priced in.

They are more than priced in, the market is now pricing the future rate cuts in as well. The pair will remain bearish until dollar weakness is felt and inflation in NZ rises significantly.

Im going to stay away from this cross until at least tuesday. i have a feeling USD might weaken all over the board. And if it does we might see a retracement on NZDUSD from this weeks fall.

See what confuses me about priced in issue is that Aussie had rate cut priced in too, but was good for abot 250 pip fall... was that because a RBA rate statement (priced in yet another rate cut)?
I mean, statement was not so dowish...

I gave up trying to figure out how price would react to news a long time ago. Now I trade only what I see. And at the moment that's down. I will not go long until I see the last swing low taken out and price above the MA. Much happier selling retracements.

you are right, it wasn't, but could someone say that it is over with rate cuts ? The trend is determined by expactations and not by current base rate, if you expect them to continue cutting why would you invest over there even if you know they might stop to catch a breath for a bit. It might cause ranging effect, but not a trend reversal. If you recall it is the exact same thing what happened to the us dollar, you can obviously see that the dollar is overpriced, but no one is expecting the FED to cut further and the dollar is raising value even with unemployment of 6,1 % and deepening financial crysis. If you see people loosing their jobs you know that these people will buy less and these people won't produce anything and that is what drags the GDP down .... 2 negative GDP-s and there you have it ... a technical recession. So we have unemployment going up in both Australia and New Zealand and we have in both falling GDP and what is most important -> we have plenty of room to cut rates. Now if they worry about inflation going up too fast, they will take a break and not cut for a while, but we will still be in a downtrend because everyone knows where we are headed too. Another thing is that no export oriented country wants to have a strong currency, so you shouldn't think they will not cut when the inflation gives them the oppurtunity to do it

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=104652

Add sell @0.6824, tp 0.6405

looks like you almost hit the perfect entry point. i got in short at 0.6801

considering my fib lines, im having 0.6442 as the first target for now.

Pirin rulzz...
I wish I am that good some day

Thanks man, but luck is a big factor too

First we will see 7270 and we will get plenty of time to take short yet
There is only one condition .665 has to hold 3 days.


4cast is in my journal.

Really? 7270 huh? How's that?

I smell sarcasm from ur mouth,
Anwer is in my journal if u dont feel like to check it this is not my problem.

Sarcasm? me? No I'm just wondering where you get that calculation from as we're clearly in a bear trend with a pending rate ease and perphaps some dovish language to come. Just curios thats all.

Then please take my apologize
Reason of incoming upmove are

-bigboys dont want to pay interest shorting carry pairs in infinity
-payed interest start breach good profit so profit have been taken in thursday beetween us and asian session .

technical cause
-big momentum but we need confirmation of three bullish days (3 great soldiers in candlestick pattern)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=12

0.6650 still holding...

For now