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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #821
  • Feb 17, 2007 8:43am Feb 17, 2007 8:43am
Quoting Phillip Nel
1. I never add to a position because I can add to a losing position. And then their is the emotion of greed if it goes well and then you risk more than 5% of capital.
2. If you risk 3%-5% of your capital on a single position you cannot add to it as you will not survive bad times.
3. You can only add if your risk is below 3% of your capital.
4. When the price goes above the 89SMA and it pulls back to around the 21EMA and then goes up above the previuos high and the resistance is way above I consider it as a trend and if I have an open position I will try to stay in it till the 21EMA is broken.
Great Phillip!
Your repl to both of my postings (where to find thread tools and how to recognize a trend) are great.
But, once, at the first posting of this thread you said your english is not good. I wonder why you made that modest statement. Hereis the reson for my wondering:
Youur English is not just good, it is PRECISE for a trader! In your previous reply to my question about how to identify a trend you said

" When the price goes above the 89SMA and it pulls back to around the 21EMA and then goes up above the previuos high and the resistance is way above I consider it as a trend and if I have an open position I will try to stay in it till the 21EMA is broken."

I have highlighted the fourcise words that ave used to give correct information. This I call not just good English, but precise English.
Thanks a ot.
-Chandra
  • #822
  • Edited 1:48pm Feb 17, 2007 10:48am | Edited 1:48pm
as promised, these are my cable trades on the chart with explanations.
Overall cable gains: 397 pips. Please, especially note high-probability trades which I back up with the confluence of patterns.

Other trades:
1. eurodollar + 42 pips (see another chart);
2. euro/yen - 17 pips (11 plus slippage);
3. euro/yen - 42 pips (36 plus slippage).

I have an open trade so far on usd/cad pair - 10 pips on the books.

Total: + 370 pips.

Addition:when you go thru my cable trades, the second trade on the chart was a bit experimental one. But I still interpreted it within the MACD strategy as I had all the essential ingredients - established downtrend, bounce off 21SMA reinforced by previous doji and I jumped on the train, yabadabadoo! I was aware that the straight rising line on the MACD was vulnerable and ever hardly bullish. I posted my remarks about it somewhere on the forum. Anyway, here is the trade for the sceptical auditors (3rd attachment).
Attached Images
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf tamkras_cable.pdf   33 KB | 1,683 downloads
  • #823
  • Feb 17, 2007 11:18am Feb 17, 2007 11:18am
Some market rithm. The target as the price found support on the blue A,B,C line are the red 2-200 line.

Hope this help in understanding the motion of the market especially when it is trending.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Market Rithm.zip   540 KB | 3,464 downloads
  • #824
  • Feb 17, 2007 11:43am Feb 17, 2007 11:43am
Quoting rp0029
Thanks, Phillip.
A few follow up questions...
There are several blue lines on your main chart, like 1.2802. How did you come up with those numbers? You seem to use them as tp/sl levels.

Also, your stop loss on the trade beginning on the 23rd of April, ending on May 4, you have a moving stoploss. How did you come up with that?

Sorry. I misunderstood your question. I was thinking of another trade. When I am in a position that turn out to be in a trend I try to hang unto it as long as possible. As the price pull back to the 21EMA in a trend I set my stoploss to a couple of pips below the 21EMA and reset it at close of every 4Hour candle untill it breaks the 21EMA indicating a possible trend end situation at which point I take profit.
  • #825
  • Feb 17, 2007 12:35pm Feb 17, 2007 12:35pm
Some more market motions and rithm
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  • #826
  • Feb 17, 2007 1:22pm Feb 17, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Some market rithm. The target as the price found support on the blue A,B,C line are the red 2-200 line.

Hope this help in understanding the motion of the market especially when it is trending.
Phillip, its great to be able to connect a voice to all this, i am starting to understand better i think now. I look foreward to being able to contribute my part to this forum as i progresses. Thanks

O'Zeeke
  • #827
  • Feb 17, 2007 2:28pm Feb 17, 2007 2:28pm
Hi Phillip,
You are amazing. Your system is great. Thanks for your help. I am using it and I am very successful in my trading with real money.
  • #828
  • Feb 17, 2007 6:36pm Feb 17, 2007 6:36pm
Phillip
Would we have number 1 as a buy because it is a double low with a higher close and it being formed before us seeing the formation of number 2 . Then would the target be the 21ema about 33 pips away. Or would it be a pass. Then would number two be a good entry following the proceeding bullish candle and a triple low higher close. Number 3 would we wait for a clearer break past the 21 ema and what would be our take profit points?
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  • #829
  • Feb 18, 2007 3:30am Feb 18, 2007 3:30am
Quoting goodthings
Phillip
Would we have number 1 as a buy because it is a double low with a higher close and it being formed before us seeing the formation of number 2 . Then would the target be the 21ema about 33 pips away. Or would it be a pass. Then would number two be a good entry following the proceeding bullish candle and a triple low higher close. Number 3 would we wait for a clearer break past the 21 ema and what would be our take profit points?


Typing takes to much time. Hope MP3 is OK.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 4Hour Strategy.zip   672 KB | 3,138 downloads
  • #830
  • Feb 18, 2007 4:17am Feb 18, 2007 4:17am
Hi Phil,

I've just finished reviewing your Market Rhythm pdf and recording and let me tell
you that's the best explanation on the subject ever! Short, clear and concise.

I've been studying very hard trying to understand the rhythm of the markets for
quite some time and nothing comes near to your description. So guys study the
pdf. That's the real deal and what everybody else falls short explaining.

Thanks again for your kind efforts answering questions and for putting together such
a great system/docs and recordings. I really appreciate it as I feel everybody
on this thread does.

Henry
  • #831
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:36am Feb 18, 2007 5:36am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Typing takes to much time. Hope MP3 is OK.
that was great! thank you philip! even helped me better understand the system
  • #832
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:49am Feb 18, 2007 5:49am
Guys and Gals,

That is an evening star on that 4 hour chart followed by a bullish run. This is a great system that can disperse a bearish candle formation and send you long, and be absolutely CORRECT! Absolutely Amazing. How nice, a system that flys in the face of logic. LOL

Keep up the good work, Phil.

Jim
  • #833
  • Feb 18, 2007 5:56am Feb 18, 2007 5:56am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Typing takes to much time. Hope MP3 is OK.
Hi Phillip,

As I am a newbie and I know I have a lot of 'catching-up' to do to follow your strategy. With your new MP3 approach, it is really helps a lot to understand your explaination better.
  • #834
  • Feb 18, 2007 6:49am Feb 18, 2007 6:49am
Hi Phillip, great job on your system. You do a nice job replying to peoples questions and your explanations make it easy to understand. When you have a chance, I'm still waiting for your reply to my post #799. I would like to know what you think of my analysis and if I'm on the right track to understanding your system. Thanks!
  • #835
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:09am Feb 18, 2007 7:09am
Quoting hard1head1
Guys and Gals,

That is an evening star on that 4 hour chart followed by a bullish run. This is a great system that can disperse a bearish candle formation and send you long, and be absolutely CORRECT! Absolutely Amazing. How nice, a system that flys in the face of logic. LOL

Keep up the good work, Phil.

Jim
Which one are you talking about?
  • #836
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:15am Feb 18, 2007 7:15am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I'm still new and learning about trading, so any comments are welcome.

Planning for next week on the EUR/USD pair...we are in an uptrend so I'm thinking Long. On the 4hr chart, MACD is heading towards the zero line and may turn up soon(we'll have to wait and see) which could give us a Long signal. Put this together with the fact that price has retraced down to the 21EMA, that's another Long signal.

If you look at the Daily chart now...we have two Doji/spinning tops that have formed(assuming todays closes near where it's at now). A little indecision here? Or a pause before continuing the uptrend? Also, if you draw Fib lines using the High of Dec. 3rd and Low of Jan 12th we are caught between the 50% and 61.8% retracements. Along with resistance from a trendline show on the daily chart attached below. So maybe not so fast with an uptrend, possible reversal? Once again, we'll have to wait and see.

Either case...here's my analysis.
If we get a Long signal: First target 1.3200, second 1.3245 and then 1.3270
If we get a Short signal: First target 1.3050 and then 1.3000

Maybe Phillip can comment on my thought process? Hopefully I'm using his system correctly!

Sorry. I did read through your planning for next week and there is nothing wrong what so ever. As you have said a bit of indecision with the trendline above the price. The price went to exactly the 61%Fib as you have drawn it. If this is a turnaround I just have a feeling that we are going to see a double top and maybe a "STING" (tail)

You have sum up all the possibilities and that is what I like. You are prepared to recognize the direction when it is given. That is the important part. It is no guessing and predicting it is analysing the possibilities but to wait for the real thing to emerge before taking action.

If the MACD gives a long signal(as it did but to slightly) the target will be the trendline. The mood is bullish with the retracement to the 21EMA. The trendline and Fib61% is resisting it.

Nice analyses.
  • #837
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:24am Feb 18, 2007 7:24am
Quoting irusoh
Which one are you talking about?
A candle pattern must just support an already made decision through other methods of analyses. Only my opinion.
Attached Image
  • #838
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:29am Feb 18, 2007 7:29am
Great post, Phil. History has a lot to discover, indeed! So, if I may, I wanted to overlay your excellent rythm analysis on today's euro market and see it has anything in common with your concept. Please, see chart. If I understand correctly it looks like we are in point 22 unless a further run-up breaks the daily resistance line. Share your thoughts, please. Sincerely, Tamkras.
Attached Image
  • #839
  • Feb 18, 2007 7:47am Feb 18, 2007 7:47am
Quoting tamkras
Great post, Phil. History has a lot to discover, indeed! So, if I may, I wanted to overlay your excellent rythm analysis on today's euro market and see it has anything in common with your concept. Please, see chart. If I understand correctly it looks like we are in point 22 unless a further run-up breaks the daily resistance line. Share your thoughts, please. Sincerely, Tamkras.

Nothing wrong with the rithm. It can come back down to bottom support again but it found support on the 21EMA which might be bullish. The question is how am I going to position myself to be part of the motion should it break out above the trendline.
I will wait for the MACD to show long signal and then set my stoploss to breakeven when trendline is approached to give me a chance to be with the motion and if it turn around the worst that can happen is a breakeven.
Remember it is around the top and bottoms of channels when the price break through that the stops and entry orders are hit.

Have to go now. Will give some analyses on MP3 in about three hours time as to the week ahead.
  • #840
  • Feb 18, 2007 10:13am Feb 18, 2007 10:13am
Phillip, and all you other regular posters (and you know who you are ), I can't thank you all enough for the effort and quality that you've put into this project to date. I've just caught up reading EVERYTHING. I'm not saying I understand it all, or that I even have anything to contribute at this time. I just believe you are OBVIOUSLY on to somethinng here and I am eager to become a part of it. I hope to have contribution in time. As for any other lurking new folks (I've been there doing that), it is a real chore, but absolutly critical that you go through the whole accumulation on this t.hread to understand, not only the system, but the method and mood of interaction on this thread. I hope we can all maintain the higher level achieved in this forum. We should all always remember, together we can become richer. Divided we will be poorer. But worst of all, we will cause other good people to miss a real life changing opportunity, and that is the ultimate potential sin of our greed. Let us continue to work together in this positive spirit. Thanks to all again.
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