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  • #5,721
  • Sep 8, 2008 4:08pm Sep 8, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting Bobokus
It can be a little more simplified by this:

If the Intraday movement is bullish your looking for a retracement to bounce from the Intraday inner levels 38.2, 50, 61.8 (Short,Pivot,Long)
If the Intraday movement is bearish your looking for a retracement to be rejected from the Intraday's inner levels.

If the Intraday movement is bullish and the retracement breaks through all 3 Inner support levels your looking to scalp a short position since price has not shown to be a rejection yet from resistance levels, a rejection from resistance levels on the next waveform is a reversal signal.
If the Intraday movement is bearish and the retracement breaks all 3 inner resistance levels you looking to scalp long until price is shown to bounce from support levels on the next waveform and it has reversed.

When applying this logic, check for the major support and resistance levels from the larger timeframes that may interfere with the direction your trading.
Hi Bob.
1)Just a couple of questions regarding your trading plan.
When the intraday movement is bearish and the retracement breaks all 3 inner resistance level we can scalp long . With scalp you probably mean that the profit target is swing fib target but what about entry when scalping . Is the entry still based on break of long fib?

2) We scalp long until price is shown to bounce from support levels on the next waveform. With support levels here ,do you mean the same levels which were broken on the way up(intraday)?
  • #5,722
  • Sep 8, 2008 4:52pm Sep 8, 2008 4:52pm
Quoting alex12
Hi Bob.
1)Just a couple of questions regarding your trading plan.
When the intraday movement is bearish and the retracement breaks all 3 inner resistance level we can scalp long . With scalp you probably mean that the profit target is swing fib target but what about entry when scalping . Is the entry still based on break of long fib?

2) We scalp long until price is shown to bounce from support levels on the next waveform. With support levels here ,do you mean the same levels which were broken on the way up(intraday)?
When it initially signals that its reversing by breaking all 3 inner levels you want to treat it as a scalp since its an unsupported move until it proves itself and you may enter on a false reversal signal, if you do enter you would want to follow along behind the previous candles with a stop loss in the event it is a false signal to minimise your risk
You would still want to use the action or reaction to the fib levels as your entry.
The support you would want if it breaks, would be from the current movement or the next days Intraday because if its retracing for a possible bounce or rejection you have a movement to measure then.
Here is an example on the Euro in which a false short is givin and where you would want your stop in the event it is false, this is a false signal and then the market reverses once again but the next days Intraday shows support after it reversed and followed through to its target range.
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  • #5,723
  • Sep 8, 2008 4:56pm Sep 8, 2008 4:56pm
Good Day,


Is it possible to get the indicator ?
Don't Blame Yourself This Is Forex...
  • #5,724
  • Sep 8, 2008 4:59pm Sep 8, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting PipsFinder
Good Day,


Is it possible to get the indicator ?
There have been a couple of attempts at indicators to draw fibs automatically but indicators are restricted by rules when the market is not.
I do everything manually to help set my trading plan up.
  • #5,725
  • Sep 8, 2008 6:31pm Sep 8, 2008 6:31pm
Quoting Bobokus
When it initially signals that its reversing by breaking all 3 inner levels you want to treat it as a scalp since its an unsupported move until it proves itself and you may enter on a false reversal signal, if you do enter you would want to follow along behind the previous candles with a stop loss in the event it is a false signal to minimise your risk
You would still want to use the action or reaction to the fib levels as your entry.
The support you would want if it breaks, would be from the current movement or the next days Intraday because if its retracing for a possible bounce or rejection you have a movement to measure then.
Here is an example on the Euro in which a false short is givin and where you would want your stop in the event it is false, this is a false signal and then the market reverses once again but the next days Intraday shows support after it reversed and followed through to its target range.
On the second picture the intraday movement is bearish and the retracement has broken all 3 levels .Why didn't you treat the long as scalp and why didn't you enter long after the first break of the long fib
  • #5,726
  • Sep 8, 2008 6:41pm Sep 8, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting alex12
On the second picture the intraday movement is bearish and the retracement has broken all 3 levels .Why didn't you treat the long as scalp and why didn't you enter long after the first break of the long fib
Time of day basically, this isnt a trade I took this is for an example of handling false breaks.
If you would have taken the early long entry at the break of the day it would have been a scalp and treated the same way as the false short break, If you roll the high of that fib on the second chart where it retraces after breaking the high youll see support hold at that point also. this is why I said that the market reverses yet again but this time the subsequent retracement shows support holding.
Hope that makes sense.
  • #5,727
  • Edited 7:16pm Sep 8, 2008 6:59pm | Edited 7:16pm
Quoting Bobokus
Time of day basically, this isnt a trade I took this is for an example of handling false breaks.
If you would have taken the early long entry at the break of the day it would have been a scalp and treated the same way as the false short break, If you roll the high of that fib on the second chart where it retraces after breaking the high youll see support hold at that point also. this is why I said that the market reverses yet again but this time the subsequent retracement shows support holding.
Hope that makes sense.
Yes ,thanks for explaining . It makes sense now ( time of the day / adjusting the fibs ).So the long entry should probably be based on the break of the long of the new fib (uptrend fib)?
  • #5,728
  • Sep 8, 2008 7:23pm Sep 8, 2008 7:23pm
Bo,

In that EU example you posted on the false break, August 19th was showing a bullish intraday and you can see the elliptical shaded area where support was holding at around the 1.4697 area. Would you then be in long after those two bounces off of support at the 1.4697 area and then ride the trade upwards for some profit before you would have been stopped out for some profit or at the worst case a break even while the fake reverse was developing?

p.s. thanks again for the great thread and teachings!!!
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trading naked.......
  • #5,729
  • Sep 8, 2008 7:31pm Sep 8, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting piphitman
Bo,

In that EU example you posted on the false break, August 19th was showing a bullish intraday and you can see the elliptical shaded area where support was holding at around the 1.4697 area. Would you then be in long after those two bounces off of support at the 1.4697 area and then ride the trade upwards for some profit before you would have been stopped out for some profit or at the worst case a break even while the fake reverse was developing?

p.s. thanks again for the great thread and teachings!!!

Certainly , as soon as it started breaking previous 1 hour period highs. The first bounce had every sign on continuation long, it was a deep retracement into the previous day but yes.
  • #5,730
  • Sep 8, 2008 7:57pm Sep 8, 2008 7:57pm
Maybe this is a better example, of the possible trades through this day...starting by playing the retracement, then stop and reversing once it made what appeared to be a bounce. Following along behind it or trailing the previous candles, you would get stopped out and reverse if your risk appetite is up to it...turns into a loss and another stop and reverse from a false break, follow along with the series of charts and see if this will help.
I dont necessarily recommend trading in this manner, only to put the idea in your head of how it can be handled...stop and reverse can be dangerous somedays and this is only for examples.

There are 2 more charts in the next post.................
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  • #5,731
  • Sep 8, 2008 7:59pm Sep 8, 2008 7:59pm
Last 2 of the series from last post, these are also examples of letting the market take you out of your trades, instead of closing them on impulse.
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  • #5,732
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:21pm Sep 8, 2008 8:21pm
Hi Bo,

I would like to know if I have the Uptrend fib pulled correctly.

If I'm understanding correctly, if the price continues down from here I would continue to pull the Uptrend back to the next lower low so price would remain within the inner fibs as possible support.

Is this correct?

Thank you.
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  • #5,733
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:47pm Sep 8, 2008 8:47pm
Quoting sundowner
Hi Bo,

I would like to know if I have the Uptrend fib pulled correctly.

If I'm understanding correctly, if the price continues down from here I would continue to pull the Uptrend back to the next lower low so price would remain within the inner fibs as possible support.

Is this correct?

Thank you.
Pull the low of it back to 06-01,2001 what were looking for is what happens at 1.7420 area. May have to set it from the monthly since weve had such a deep retracement.
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  • #5,734
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:57pm Sep 8, 2008 8:57pm
Quoting Bobokus
Pull the low of it back to 06-01,2001 what were looking for is what happens at 1.7420 area. May have to set it from the monthly since weve had such a deep retracement.

Thank you Bo. I'm thinking that's because of the consolidation.

Great thread, thanks for demystifying fibs.

Regards
  • #5,735
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:45pm Sep 8, 2008 9:45pm
Alright guys here is my look at gbpusd today....

Price is yet to test our intraday levels so as of right now I would only consider taking a trade short if my Intraday low brakes, let the market show you something before jumping the gun. Second if later on we begin to break candles highs I will trade back into my Intraday levels since we would have room...Remeber everything against intraday is a scalp..

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  • #5,736
  • Sep 9, 2008 1:36am Sep 9, 2008 1:36am
Currently long in eur/usd ...I have 17 pips...looking for my intraday levels...treat like a scalp...

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  • #5,737
  • Sep 9, 2008 1:59am Sep 9, 2008 1:59am
Hi Bo...I really appreciate your thread. Let me see if I have this right...if the market flow is down, then we are looking to sell at the Intraday Short...or possibly 23.6% is a fast moving, high volume market. So if the market is below the Intraday Short at the London Open, and breaks the existing low...it is a sell, in trust that it will more than likely extend to the T1 or T2 target.
If the market moves up through the daily selling range between the Intraday Short and the Intraday Long, we buy at the Intraday Long. Do have a strategy for do this...i.e. do you wait until the 1 hr candle closes above the Intraday Long? Also can you tell me what you are looking for to determine if the market is turning at the Intraday Short, Intraday Pivot or Intraday Long? Do you wait for reversal candle formations, do you use Fibo extentions on the previous move up, or do you set do you set an "Entry Limit" sell at the Intraday Short or Intraday Pivot, with a stop above the Intraday Long in hope that it will reverse prior to that figure? Is there a key here that I'm missing in the thread?
Another question...what do you find the most effective way to determine market flow, if your working the 1 hr chart....do you determine that from the 1 hr chart, or assess that from a 4hr or daily chart?
  • #5,738
  • Sep 9, 2008 2:05am Sep 9, 2008 2:05am
I have now pulled out my swing fibb since I whant to see support hold since I am trading back to my intraday levels...I will hold my long if my swing short does not brake...it that swing short brakes with a cnalde closing below it to me it simply wont be worth holding.

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  • #5,739
  • Sep 9, 2008 5:11am Sep 9, 2008 5:11am
Bobokus

In the charts you have posted, how would you actually decide whether price will/will not pierce the fib levels? Do you wait for so many candles [I know we do not trade strictly on fibs] which sometimes may be too late?
  • #5,740
  • Sep 9, 2008 7:01am Sep 9, 2008 7:01am
Quoting ihop
Hi Bo...I really appreciate your thread. Let me see if I have this right...if the market flow is down, then we are looking to sell at the Intraday Short...or possibly 23.6% is a fast moving, high volume market. So if the market is below the Intraday Short at the London Open, and breaks the existing low...it is a sell, in trust that it will more than likely extend to the T1 or T2 target.
If the market moves up through the daily selling range between the Intraday Short and the Intraday Long, we buy at the Intraday Long. Do have a strategy for do this...i.e. do you wait until the 1 hr candle closes above the Intraday Long? Also can you tell me what you are looking for to determine if the market is turning at the Intraday Short, Intraday Pivot or Intraday Long? Do you wait for reversal candle formations, do you use Fibo extentions on the previous move up, or do you set do you set an "Entry Limit" sell at the Intraday Short or Intraday Pivot, with a stop above the Intraday Long in hope that it will reverse prior to that figure? Is there a key here that I'm missing in the thread?
Another question...what do you find the most effective way to determine market flow, if your working the 1 hr chart....do you determine that from the 1 hr chart, or assess that from a 4hr or daily chart?
Yes, if the day is a bullish day you would look for price to bounce from the Intraday levels, a bearish day and you would look for a rejection at the Intraday levels. I dont use the 23.6 level, thats a matter of personal preference.
We are actually trading the Daily chart since we set up our charts from the higher timeframes(Monthly,Weekly,Daily) then we trade that from the 1 hour chart with the Intraday and the Swing fib as price makes its way to the larger timeframe levels. What you look for in entry's would be the price action or reaction to the levels not necessarily candle formations. The smaller the timeframe the less accurate candle formations will be.
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