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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #16,881
  • Sep 3, 2008 2:26pm Sep 3, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting Palmer
No short entry here. Watching the 4470 area though...
im not sure about short this pair . i think we r in a very strong weekly area and it can retest 89 (blue channel ) again
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  • #16,882
  • Sep 3, 2008 3:10pm Sep 3, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting fxtrayda
no its not, its an .xls (97-2003) not .xlsx (2007). but here i've reposted it.
hey fxtrayda------i can't get the file to open either----could you post it in pdf or tell me how to open?

thanks
I know where I am----I just don't know where I'm going!
  • #16,883
  • Sep 3, 2008 8:03pm Sep 3, 2008 8:03pm
Quoting bshadroo
im not sure about short this pair . i think we r in a very strong weekly area and it can retest 89 (blue channel ) again
B,
Love your charts and trendlines. I always look forward toward your analysis. However, as I'm sure you know but newbies may not, we still have the 21 MA to tackle. Many pips to you
Raymond
  • #16,884
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:01am Sep 4, 2008 1:01am
Quoting Morelands
B,
Love your charts and trendlines. I always look forward toward your analysis. However, as I'm sure you know but newbies may not, we still have the 21 MA to tackle. Many pips to you
Raymond
thx raymond .u r right ,21ema is on the way .but look at the H1 chart below .i can see a possible sHs in chart and the interesting thing is the neckline and 21ema in H4 are very close to each other .im looking for a break above neckline(21ema) and a retest of it(the blue way ) to go long
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  • #16,885
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:55am Sep 4, 2008 1:55am
Quoting bshadroo
thx raymond .u r right ,21ema is on the way .but look at the H1 chart below .i can see a possible sHs in chart and the interesting thing is the neckline and 21ema in H4 are very close to each other .im looking for a break above neckline(21ema) and a retest of it(the blue way ) to go long
Thats exactly what I was thinking too! I use Phillip's system and also some elliot wave. I can tell you know that my Dynamic Trader DTOsc is way in the oversold zone for EuroDollar and Cable (Daily). The down trend has impulsive characteristics so any move back to those weekly trendlines should be corrective (Zig-Zig type pattern). This should (hopefully) give us that 21EMA retest. A 4H signal candle would be nice too! GL All.
  • #16,886
  • Edited 9:33am Sep 4, 2008 6:07am | Edited 9:33am
It seems we are getting bounce off 21 (Red dotted line) in E/U.

Mike


Edit:+20+60/2= 40pips Ave on 2 lots
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #16,887
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:47am Sep 4, 2008 6:47am
Quoting mike1349
It seems we are getting bounce off 21 (Red dotted line) in E/U.

Mike
Yeah I think we have the answer to the questions regarding the 21EMA now. Thanks to the sytem though no long trade setup for me was triggered. If anything you cold have tried to short from the 21EMA, although there was no 4H signal at that point.
  • #16,888
  • Sep 4, 2008 7:08am Sep 4, 2008 7:08am
bsh:

I agree with you on the support. The oil market is in the back of my mind....
  • #16,889
  • Edited 7:42am Sep 4, 2008 7:29am | Edited 7:42am
Hello,

I`ve been away from internet and this thread for a while, about 1 year. Now I`m back and trying to get a feel of this system again - especially the market rhythm. When I ask from myself - what is changed during this period, the answer is: Nothing… the market is the same and this system works exactly as it did a year ago and gonna keep on making pips.

Guys…just keep on studing whom not consistently successful yet. The system has not been changed at all, it is exactly the same as Phillip described it at the beginning. The thing is … as time goes, we are all gettig better and are able to grasp tiny things that allows as to see when the market is ready to give us pips and when it is pretending to be ready and „gonna jump into your account and run away with your hard-earned pips”.

It is easy to say learn the market rhythm, learn the money management, learn to control your emotions and so on… but if you are not learning, if you are not trying to learn you`re not going to be better and you never gonna be able to go into tiny details that allows to see market conditons and opportnities to make pips. You can`t blindly follow it, you can`t ask from other people is it right time to go into market now or not… You have to ask from yourself – Is it right time for me to enter the market based on my own knowledge and you know the answer… if you don`t… don`t go live, demotrade and learn this system as long as it takes to be confident to answer to your own questions. And if you know the answers you know the system, you know the market and you know how to make pips. It takes time, but it`s worth it !

Thanks again Phillip for this great thread and your ongoing effort that you put into this thread. Thanks a lot old members who`s still here and giving light with every single post.

Be careful with today`s Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf TC signals. Eur/Usd is sitting on my daily longterm trendline and Usd/Chf is hitting daily EMA 365. Look at the tail of the yesterday`s candle on the attached chart. Go back history and see what happens usually after such a closed long-tailed candle.

Cheers,
viu
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  • #16,890
  • Edited 9:27am Sep 4, 2008 9:15am | Edited 9:27am
the doji got me in on the 1hr....probable target back to the low, support line???
Attached Image
  • #16,891
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:21am Sep 4, 2008 9:21am
Quoting viu
Hello,

I`ve been away from internet and this thread for a while, about 1 year. Now I`m back and trying to get a feel of this system again - especially the market rhythm. When I ask from myself - what is changed during this period, the answer is: Nothing… the market is the same and this system works exactly as it did a year ago and gonna keep on making pips.

Guys…just keep on studing whom not consistently successful yet. The system has not been changed at all, it is exactly the same as Phillip described it at the beginning.

That's the beauty of the method, it's the same from day one.

The thing is … as time goes, we are all gettig better and are able to grasp tiny things that allows as to see when the market is ready to give us pips and when it is pretending to be ready and „gonna jump into your account and run away with your hard-earned pips”.

It is easy to say learn the market rhythm, learn the money management, learn to control your emotions and so on… but if you are not learning, if you are not trying to learn you`re not going to be better and you never gonna be able to go into tiny details that allows to see market conditons and opportnities to make pips.

Phillip has a great ability to see this. He's got the eye for it all. If you see his trading statements that he posts every once in a while what surprises me is not the success he has but the low number of trades per month. It seems that I have twice as many and I'll admit that I can exit a lot quicker if money is on the table, but still he has the most streamlined and disciplined approach than anyone (post, forum, 'newsletter' than I have ever seen) and that takes a very analytical mind to accomplish.

You can`t blindly follow it, you can`t ask from other people is it right time to go into market now or not… You have to ask from yourself – Is it right time for me to enter the market based on my own knowledge and you know the answer… if you don`t… don`t go live, demotrade and learn this system as long as it takes to be confident to answer to your own questions. And if you know the answers you know the system, you know the market and you know how to make pips. It takes time, but it`s worth it !

Yes, it take a LOT of time.

Thanks again Phillip for this great thread and your ongoing effort that you put into this thread. Thanks a lot old members who`s still here and giving light with every single post.

Be careful with today`s Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf TC signals. Eur/Usd is sitting on my daily longterm trendline and Usd/Chf is hitting daily EMA 365. Look at the tail of the yesterday`s candle on the attached chart. Go back history and see what happens usually after such a closed long-tailed candle.



Cheers,
viu
Thanks for the heads up, trade well.....
  • #16,892
  • Edited 11:15am Sep 4, 2008 9:43am | Edited 11:15am
Took the 3pm UK time candle (4pm on chart) TC signal, previous candle touched the 21 ema, waited for MACD TC signal on next candle, entered short at 14468, trailing stop 40 pips.

Update: closed +102 pips
  • #16,893
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:29am Sep 4, 2008 10:29am
Just a little more info on the 1hr entry...

I do this when 'it feels right' but not all the time. The entry MUST be in line with the 4hr set-up. The set up was the return to the 21 and per the method, to start looking for a probable down move.

When the 4hr is setting up for an entry I go to the 1hr to look for clues to get in a little earlier. This is more of an aggressive approach and the 4hr rules should be tattooed on your brain before looking at the shorter timeframe. I think I posted yesterday that I was watching the 4470 area because it looked like a good support area. The 1hr was supported there as well. When the 1hr starts bouncing off of that, it tends to form a box. The aqua line on the 1hr is where the 4hr hit the 21 and started to retreat. Entering there on the 1hr would have been extremely aggressive. But, I would have rather the bottom of the box be broken before getting in. The white vertical line was my entry, the doji = market indecision. Again, aggressive because this candle tells me things can go either way. The long tail down and then back up made me a little nervous also but it 'felt right'

It's always easier to do this after the fact, but look back when the 4hr is giving a TC and look for the box forming on the 1hr. When the box is broken up or down, that could be the signal to get in. The rhythm of the 4hr must be flowing well because this is a high probability TC that is setting up.

Stop on the last position has been moved down below the yellow support line...

I promise to add more of these examples to the website. Been saying that for a few months now I know but I just finished my flooring and alsmost done scraping the glue off the off the drywall where the wallpaper 'was' and filling in all my mistakes (gashes) before painting. Gotta take care of the homefront first...
Attached Image
  • #16,894
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:41am Sep 4, 2008 10:41am
palmer:
great trade .i also have a nice TC signal in H4 but i prefer to enter a audusd short .
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  • #16,895
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:00pm Sep 4, 2008 1:00pm
Quoting Palmer
Just a little more info on the 1hr entry...

I do this when 'it feels right' but not all the time. The entry MUST be in line with the 4hr set-up. The set up was the return to the 21 and per the method, to start looking for a probable down move.

When the 4hr is setting up for an entry I go to the 1hr to look for clues to get in a little earlier. This is more of an aggressive approach and the 4hr rules should be tattooed on your brain before looking at the shorter timeframe. I think I posted yesterday that I was watching the 4470 area because it looked like a good support area. The 1hr was supported there as well. When the 1hr starts bouncing off of that, it tends to form a box. The aqua line on the 1hr is where the 4hr hit the 21 and started to retreat. Entering there on the 1hr would have been extremely aggressive. But, I would have rather the bottom of the box be broken before getting in. The white vertical line was my entry, the doji = market indecision. Again, aggressive because this candle tells me things can go either way. The long tail down and then back up made me a little nervous also but it 'felt right'

It's always easier to do this after the fact, but look back when the 4hr is giving a TC and look for the box forming on the 1hr. When the box is broken up or down, that could be the signal to get in. The rhythm of the 4hr must be flowing well because this is a high probability TC that is setting up.

Stop on the last position has been moved down below the yellow support line...

I promise to add more of these examples to the website. Been saying that for a few months now I know but I just finished my flooring and alsmost done scraping the glue off the off the drywall where the wallpaper 'was' and filling in all my mistakes (gashes) before painting. Gotta take care of the homefront first...
Excellent post!! Thank you for this lesson!
  • #16,896
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:14pm Sep 4, 2008 1:14pm
to Palmer,

tnx for your response.

I like your explanation of 1H early entry in direction to 4H TC off the EMA 21 (high probability setup). I had daily trendline just underneath the rectangle that you have drawn and I considered it as potential support area and that`s why I didn`t go short. The candle after a doji on 1H chart gave nice 1H early entry signal with a tail up and I would probably entered there, but I didn`t cause the daily trendline (green thick line on my chart) had acted as support to doji and the candle before doji and I was afraid of it. There are several ways how to consider it. Price went down to daily support line before rectangle, then came back on it and closed above 21 EMA on 1H chart and on 8 EMA on 4H chart and found support on it. Then price went to EMA 21 on 4H and started retreating. Then it broke underneath EMA 8 on 4H and EMA 21 on 1H, price came back to test this area and started moving away... good spot for early entry.

Now I had to make decision, price had pierced the daily trendline already and it might happen again and keep on going this way or it might find support on it and start moving upwards. There are several ways to draw trendlines and there might be still room for 4H movements underneath it, on the other hand - on the daily chart this broken area is nothing else than hammer that says me: bear-power is getting weaker. I decided to sit tight.

What you guys think about my analyses ? I may be rusty and maybe I missed something really important.

Any thoughts appreciated,
viu
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  • #16,897
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:04pm Sep 4, 2008 2:04pm
bshadroo: hope you bagged some..I got out with about 180 total on 3 positions.

viu: i do pay attention to the daily s/r levels but when I think of a daily trendline, it's just that a daily trendline. The 4hr and 1hr can pass through it by x amount of pips either up or down but at the end of the DAY is where the daily trendline matters. The 1hr chart has 24 'chances' to end up where it wants to so there can be a lot of room for that daily candle to form. I agree with you on the s/r level as well. I see nothing wrong with your analysis at all....
  • #16,898
  • Sep 7, 2008 1:06pm Sep 7, 2008 1:06pm
Could this be a upside down head and sholders?
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  • #16,899
  • Sep 7, 2008 10:00pm Sep 7, 2008 10:00pm
Phillip,
A question on your Three Sisters formation...
Any comments on applying the setup against the MACD? I've noticed the setup several times recently in my scrolling through the charts, but not enough yet to come to any clear conclusions on it. From what I've seen, it seems to indicate a fairly solid move is on the cards.
I've attached a U/J chart below (its a little dated - Jan 2005) with white vertical line to illustrate.
Thanks,
Ben
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  • #16,900
  • Sep 8, 2008 4:23am Sep 8, 2008 4:23am
Hi Philip,

I really like your system and style of trading and now try to demo trade.

Base on chart i posted, should we enter after such a beautiful bearish engulfing candle closed or wait for the macd to form continuation which mean wait for another bearish candle to close?

Another question is , in fact i have enter after that bearish engulfing candle closed. Almost immediately the price came down with +20 over pips. However i did not take profit as i believe it will run to support at 1.4242. However i change my sl back to entry after +20 over pips as i believe we should not let the profit turn into loses. Unfortunately the price go back up and touch my sl and come back down to my supposedly tp.. Is there any rule when we should change our sl to entry? or it is totally base on personal style?

Best Regards!

Alpe
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