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  • #261
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:54pm Sep 5, 2008 9:54pm
ozzie...
well unless you look at it from a long retracement perspective??
I'm finding if you zoom out or use longer tf's you can fit fib zones and retracements everywhere. which ones do you use??
look at the usdyen also. there are overlapping ones short & long..
how long do these sequenses go? What makes one more relevent than another??
Still its interesting to plot these on a chart & see how often they are respected.
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy7.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #262
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:56pm Sep 5, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Tommy,

This is a very good analysis and it seems like it's right on the money. The question I have is we're still technically in a downtrend and if you continue to pull your fibs from the top of the move to the bottom you'll see we;ve retraced to the 61.8 fib. So I guess this is where alot of confusion with what has been shared so far will come in..and that's when and from what point do we start to pull fibs from. In this case, since it's a down moveand it hasn't broken to the up side yet why would you start pulling fibs to the up side? With that said, we've had a huge down side move and at some point soon you would expect to see a large retracement.
Ozziedave,

Yes, you're right, we are in an overall long term downtrend, but I think that it's going to have to retrace some. It's gone down too far, too fast. And that retracement looks like it could be a big one (ca. 1000 pips or more). That much of a move up, even if it is just a retracement in the overall long term downtrend, is still going to look like a really tradeable short term uptrend. You know how, in Mouteki's videos, he talks about a certain fib zone being reached and then price retracing to the previous fib zone before moving on? Well the GBP/USD has gone to the 4181 fib zone. If it Retraces back to the 2584 zone that still means a nearly 1600 pip uptrend. That's pretty darn significant, if you ask me.
  • #263
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:58pm Sep 5, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Ozziedave,

Yes, you're right, we are in an overall long term downtrend, but I think that it's going to have to retrace some. It's gone down too far, too fast. And that retracement looks like it could be a big one (ca. 1000 pips or more). That much of a move up, even if it is just a retracement in the overall long term downtrend, is still going to look like a short term uptrend. You know how, in Mouteki's videos, he talks about a certain fib zone being reached and then price retracing to the previous fib zone before moving on? Well the GBP/USD has gone to the 4181 fib zone. If it Retraces back to the 2584 zone still means a nearly 1600 pip uptrend.

Its hit & bounced off the 987 counting up from the 0 on my previous chart.
  • #264
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:09pm Sep 5, 2008 10:09pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Ozziedave,

Yes, you're right, we are in an overall long term downtrend, but I think that it's going to have to retrace some. It's gone down too far, too fast. And that retracement looks like it could be a big one (ca. 1000 pips or more). That much of a move up, even if it is just a retracement in the overall long term downtrend, is still going to look like a really tradeable short term uptrend. You know how, in Mouteki's videos, he talks about a certain fib zone being reached and then price retracing to the previous fib zone before moving on? Well the GBP/USD has gone to the 4181 fib zone. If it Retraces back to the 2584 zone that still means a nearly 1600 pip uptrend. That's pretty darn significant, if you ask me.
By using the Intraday/Swing Fibs you'll be able to catch such moves on the H1 chart if you see the Support Fib being respected...
  • #265
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:10pm Sep 5, 2008 10:10pm
Quoting rustyjeff
Its hit & bounced off the 987 counting up from the 0 on my previous chart.
I'm sorry Rustyjeff...Which chart are you referring to? The most recent charts you posted were for the AUD/USD and the USD/JPY. Did you post a chart for the GBP/USD too? I haven't had the opportunity to look at the AUD/USD or the USD/JPY. I've only really looked at the GBP/JPY and the GBP/USD..
  • #266
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:16pm Sep 5, 2008 10:16pm
Quoting Tommy_C
I'm sorry Rustyjeff...Which chart are you referring to? The most recent charts you posted were for the AUD/USD and the USD/JPY. Did you post a chart for the GBP/USD too? I haven't had the opportunity to look at the AUD/USD or the USD/JPY. I've only really looked at the GBP/JPY and the GBP/USD..

Sorry, my mistake.
I was referring to the aud from ozziedaves earlier post. When i saw you reply to OD i thought it was also about the aud but now i see it was from a while earlier & about the pound.. whoops....
  • #267
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:32pm Sep 5, 2008 10:32pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Ozziedave,

Yes, you're right, we are in an overall long term downtrend, but I think that it's going to have to retrace some. It's gone down too far, too fast. And that retracement looks like it could be a big one (ca. 1000 pips or more). That much of a move up, even if it is just a retracement in the overall long term downtrend, is still going to look like a really tradeable short term uptrend. You know how, in Mouteki's videos, he talks about a certain fib zone being reached and then price retracing to the previous fib zone before moving on? Well the GBP/USD has gone to the 4181 fib zone. If it Retraces back to the 2584 zone that still means a nearly 1600 pip uptrend. That's pretty darn significant, if you ask me.
Hi Tommy,

I trend to agree the GBP should retrace soon. My point was more of where and when do you decide to stop pulling down fibs and reverse the process.
  • #268
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:41pm Sep 5, 2008 10:41pm
Quoting rustyjeff
ozzie...
well unless you look at it from a long retracement perspective??
I'm finding if you zoom out or use longer tf's you can fit fib zones and retracements everywhere. which ones do you use??
look at the usdyen also. there are overlapping ones short & long..
how long do these sequenses go? What makes one more relevent than another??
Still its interesting to plot these on a chart & see how often they are respected.
Hi Rusty,

This is where I think there will be much debate about what we've seen so far. If you notice on my chart I pulled the fib zones from the last significant high. What I was saying is based on the price action cutting through the fib zones and not retracing to the previous level we would not be interested in trading this pair. I may be wrong but to me there is no Harmony as Mouteki puts it.

This also brings up a point in the videos. In the Eur and CHF videos Mouteki does not stress the point of once a fib zone is hit it should retrace back to the previous fib zone, but in his analysis of the gbp pair, he stress that point many times. So I am a little confused on this point. Does price need to retrace to the previous fib zone when the next fib zone is hit? Anyone have any comments?
  • #269
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:43pm Sep 5, 2008 10:43pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Tommy,

I trend to agree the GBP should retrace soon. My point was more of where and when do you decide to stop pulling down fibs and reverse the process.
Well, I'm with you there. That's always been the hardest part for me to get the hang of with fibonacci levels. You can find fibonacci levels all over. Some will say that you're in an uptrend, and others say you're in a downtrend. Which one is right? That's what I'm hoping Mouteki will make clear for us.
  • #270
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:51pm Sep 5, 2008 10:51pm
Quoting Tommy_C
Well, I'm with you there. That's always been the hardest part for me to get the hang of with fibonacci levels. You can find fibonacci levels all over. Some will say that you're in an uptrend, and others say you're in a downtrend. Which one is right? That's what I'm hoping Mouteki will make clear for us.
Yes, I would have to agree 100% about at what point do you pull your fib zones or fib retracement tool. There are so many time frame charts and swings to choose from. The only reason I pulled my from the high is the up trend seems to have stopped and that point was a historical high. So I was working my way down. So if you look at that down leg, price hasn't stopped at any of the Fib Zones or had any significant pullbacks against the current down trend. I was taking this as the AUD is not in harmony so I wouldn't trade it.
  • #271
  • Sep 5, 2008 11:47pm Sep 5, 2008 11:47pm
yes thats something i would like to understand better when do you change your stance to uptrend/downtrend or is it just retracing anyways very interesting with these fib zones thanks
  • #272
  • Sep 6, 2008 1:40am Sep 6, 2008 1:40am
Mouteki once price reaches its extension levels in a bull market, are those safe levels for shorting?, and in a bear market, safe for buying. What time frames do you trade?..i cant tell from the videos. Can you make a video on how you deal with short trades?

thanks
  • #273
  • Sep 6, 2008 3:40am Sep 6, 2008 3:40am
Boy...am i exhausted...what a long and busy week...

I just got done with the daily video update in the Forex Truth video series...
You know where to see it...

Good weekend all,
M
  • #274
  • Sep 6, 2008 4:34am Sep 6, 2008 4:34am
Quoting moutekitrader
Boy...am i exhausted...what a long and busy week...

I just got done with the daily video update in the Forex Truth video series...
You know where to see it...

Good weekend all,
M
Thanks, great stuff!

Harry
  • #275
  • Sep 6, 2008 7:02am Sep 6, 2008 7:02am
itguy, thanks for the indicator, but do me a favor and add another digit pls, ie: 1440, 2330, 3770, 6100 etc. as I'm using a broker quoting price with 5 decimals for US pairs and 3 for YEN pairs. Much appreciated.
  • #276
  • Sep 6, 2008 7:19am Sep 6, 2008 7:19am
Quoting ozziedave
I just listened to the gbp video analysis and Mouteti talks about the currency pair respecting the fib zones. So below is a weekly chart of the AUD and if I understand Mouteki correctly we would not be interested in this pair since it is showing no respect for the zones. I say this based on the fact that when the pair hits a zone there has been no retracement back to the previous zone. Would everyone agree with that analysis?
The weekly chart to me shows a 38.2 retacement at 0.7925.
Thanks Mouteki for this valuable new insightas I've never looked at Fibo's before.
  • #277
  • Sep 6, 2008 7:36am Sep 6, 2008 7:36am
And i post again with some unclear charts. When i saw that Mouteki made video about USDJPY before watching it I tried to analize this pair by myself and got the same results as him.
But later I took a little further view on weekly chart and I got even more respect of Fib zones and retracements. It shows that now price reached 50% retracement and will go down back at least to all time low. It beatifuly respected zones and all the lines.

I don't think that any of theese analyzes are wrong. It just shows that it's not that clear. When some pair reaches "all time lows" or "long time lows" it doesn't mean that it won't go further down..

Two diferent charts and 2 diferent views.. One shows that USDJPY will go up, but other one oposite.

I'm looking for comments.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 1.JPG Size: 163 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 2.JPG Size: 137 KB
  • #278
  • Sep 6, 2008 8:52am Sep 6, 2008 8:52am
From my perspective you should have drawn your Fibs on the Weekly from the low like you did on the Daily chart?

TimeFreedom

Quoting Misiacyk

Two diferent charts and 2 diferent views.. One shows that USDJPY will go up, but other one oposite.
  • #279
  • Sep 6, 2008 9:04am Sep 6, 2008 9:04am
I would i i were 100% sure that downtrend from 124.13 is over. But what if it's not and our actual uptrend is only a retracement that touched 50% and we'll have continuation of downtrend? It's like in the Mouteki videos. Price touched 2584 line and retraced to 1597 to "breathe" and continue to move south. This scenario is possible too.

It's unsolved case till price breaks 61,8% without stopping at 116 or something. But today for me its 50/50 up or down.
  • #280
  • Sep 6, 2008 9:20am Sep 6, 2008 9:20am
I think Mouteki started with the 0 at the bottom because it's currently in an uptrend and that the low point back in March is the current major low, and the market has been respecting fibs so far.

Quoting Misiacyk
I would i i were 100% sure that downtrend from 124.13 is over. But what if it's not and our actual uptrend is only a retracement that touched 50% and we'll have continuation of downtrend? It's like in the Mouteki videos. Price touched 2584 line and retraced to 1597 to "breathe" and continue to move south. This scenario is possible too.

It's unsolved case till price breaks 61,8% without stopping at 116 or something. But today for me its 50/50 up or down.
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