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Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

  • #121
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:56am Sep 5, 2008 4:56am
EUR/USD


http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture18.jpg
  • #122
  • Sep 5, 2008 6:22am Sep 5, 2008 6:22am
Quoting preneur
Most of the pairs have very high correlations, like GBP/USD will most likely move higher when USD/CHF lower, and EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD will act similar.

So its a question of what happens with the markets, JPY etc. If fore example JPY buying stops, and EUR/USD & GBP/USD looks like they find a base, I would say shorting USD/CHF is a no brainer. The opposite is currently ongoing, hence USD/CHF long is a sure thing.

Regarding CAD crosses, CAD has employment data today, hence could move EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD regardless of weakness in EUR and GBP.

then im gonna start with eurgbp
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #123
  • Sep 5, 2008 6:34am Sep 5, 2008 6:34am
Quoting preneur
EUR/USD
Do you think it's tme to short USD/CHF?
It has a double top
  • #124
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:12am Sep 5, 2008 7:12am
Quoting marcb
Do you think it's tme to short USD/CHF?
It has a double top

I decreased my longs in USD/CHF, but still my sentiment is Weak Bullish for the pair. Personally, I will not take a short position, even not a Weak Bearish sentiment, until below 1.1050s.

I will add the longs again if the pair moves above EU session highs around 1.1180s.
  • #125
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:18am Sep 5, 2008 7:18am
In order to summarize the sentiment in the markets before the news, I'll post one update to GBP/JPY:

GBP/JPY

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture2.jpg
  • #126
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:28am Sep 5, 2008 7:28am
GBP/JPY moving away from the EU lows, going higher. If news don't bring it down either, Weak Bearish sentiment should still linger going towards the weekend. In order to turn to Strong Bearish again, EU lows need to be taken.

Its likewise for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD etc...
  • #127
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:32am Sep 5, 2008 7:32am
After the NEWS:


JPY

EU lows are taken! Sentiment is Strong Bearish now. All JPY crosses heading a lot lower

AUD

Likewise, AUD sell off hasten, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD heading higher. Strong Bullish
  • #128
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:33am Sep 5, 2008 7:33am
EUR/USD & GBP/USD

As I mentioned, these two pairs sentiment are weak bearish now. I don't think they'll go higher. They have to move above yesterday's US highs in order to start some kind of a bullish sentiment.

It could be possible that both pair turn to Strong Bearish if EU lows are taken.
  • #129
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:38am Sep 5, 2008 7:38am
Update:

GBP/JPY

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture2.jpg
  • #130
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:41am Sep 5, 2008 7:41am
Update:

EUR/AUD

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture3.jpg
  • #131
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:54am Sep 5, 2008 7:54am
Quoting preneur
After the NEWS:


JPY

EU lows are taken! Sentiment is Strong Bearish now. All JPY crosses heading a lot lower
as soon as wrote this GBPJPY actually went up instead of down as your post suggested, am I missing something?
  • #132
  • Sep 5, 2008 7:56am Sep 5, 2008 7:56am
Quoting marcb
as soon as wrote this GBPJPY actually went up instead of down as your post suggested, am I missing something?
News volatility is high as always. There will always be fluctuations, and wild ones during news. I think the pair is strong bearish.
  • #133
  • Sep 5, 2008 8:00am Sep 5, 2008 8:00am
Quoting preneur
News volatility is high as always. There will always be fluctuations, and wild ones during news. I think the pair is strong bearish.
Thanks,
what would you think would be a reasonable taking profit before it retrace?
  • #134
  • Sep 5, 2008 8:03am Sep 5, 2008 8:03am
Quoting marcb
Thanks,
what would you think would be a reasonable taking profit before it retrace?

It would be helpfull to wait and see if Asian lows also fail, below 186.10s. If they fail, next week could provide more downside movement. If they hold, which they did hold during the news today, there could be more consolidation and sideways move before continuing down.
  • #135
  • Sep 5, 2008 2:43pm Sep 5, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting preneur
After the NEWS:


JPY

EU lows are taken! Sentiment is Strong Bearish now. All JPY crosses heading a lot lower

AUD

Likewise, AUD sell off hasten, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD heading higher. Strong Bullish
I hope that this question is not to offend you, for English is my 2nd language. When you said, "EU lows are taken", you mean EU lows happened. Right?
  • #136
  • Sep 5, 2008 2:49pm Sep 5, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting trader8686
I hope that this question is not to offend you, for English is my 2nd language. When you said, "EU lows are taken", you mean EU lows happened. Right?
Would be happy to clarify that.

By EU lows are taken, I mean that EU lows didn't hold, and the price moved lower. Even EU lows were taken, Asian lows remained intact. I am still bearish in JPY crosses, but will see next week start to weigh the sentiment.

Market recap coming...
  • #137
  • Sep 5, 2008 2:56pm Sep 5, 2008 2:56pm
EUR/USD

As expected, there was a massive volatility following the news. Below chart does a great job to summarize it:

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture13.jpg

I hope everyone did not gave into the volatility.
  • #138
  • Sep 5, 2008 2:58pm Sep 5, 2008 2:58pm
EUR/USD

EUR/USD didn't even come close to testing yesterday's US highs. Will be looking to bring back the shorts I just quit before the news. Will turn to Weak Bearish on Monday only if today's US highs are taken out.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture8.jpg
  • #139
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:01pm Sep 5, 2008 3:01pm
GBP/JPY

Unlike the majors against the USD, JPY couldn't hold on to its gain. Most JPY crosses are still bearish, but could turn to Weak Bullish if US highs are taken.

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture15.jpg
  • #140
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:04pm Sep 5, 2008 3:04pm
Thats it for this week. It was a volatile, but happy ending week. Following week will probably not so crazy as today, and USD will be looking to extend its gain against majors. JPY move will also effect the AUD and likewise other high yielding currencies.

See you next Monday

SG
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