Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD] | Page 6 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD thread 126 replies

Milking 4 pairs AUD/NZD, EUR/GBP,NZD/CAD & AUD/CAD for a living 38 replies

Crosses and exotics (gbp/aud...) 11 replies

trading exotics 0 replies

Attachments: Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]
Exit Attachments

Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

  • #101
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:42pm Sep 4, 2008 3:42pm
preneur, from a fundamental standpoint, when will gbp and eur stop going down and usd stop going up? .. i mean, im newbie and cant estimate when will this selling party over, is there more to come?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #102
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:49pm Sep 4, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting Obaidah
preneur, from a fundamental standpoint, for how long you think gbp and eur will stop going down and usd stop going up? .. i mean, im newbie and cant estimate when will this selling party over, is there more to come?

From technical side, i think the long term sentiment I posted little bit ago gives the sense. 1.41-1.43 region, than 1.38 comes in.

From a longer term, I don't think EUR/USD would drop below the region 1.33-1.38, the consolidation area seen last year.

From a fundamental point of view, it depends on two things. If the FED stops saving big failures in US, leaves it to markets, and focuses on its mandate, the EUR/USD pair should be around 1.00 maximum. EU region's population, and with it its economy will be decreasing going into the future. In very long term, and given FED and politicians don't alter the game, EUR/USD should move below 1.00 in favor of the USD.


Its yet to be seen if FED and politicians will blur the scene or not. Depends on the election outcome. EUR/USD will probably pause around 1.33-1.38 and the direction will be set after the elections.

SG
  • #103
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:58pm Sep 4, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting preneur
From technical side, i think the long term sentiment I posted little bit ago gives the sense. 1.41-1.43 region, than 1.38 comes in.

From a longer term, I don't think EUR/USD would drop below the region 1.33-1.38, the consolidation area seen last year.

From a fundamental point of view, it depends on two things. If the FED stops saving big failures in US, leaves it to markets, and focuses on its mandate, the EUR/USD pair should be around 1.00 maximum. EU region's population, and with it its economy will be decreasing going into the future. In very long term, and given FED and politicians don't alter the game, EUR/USD should move below 1.00 in favor of the USD.


Its yet to be seen if FED and politicians will blur the scene or not. Depends on the election outcome. EUR/USD will probably pause around 1.33-1.38 and the direction will be set after the elections.

SG

yea but does that mean that they will not show any sign or changing directions? like going up 3 or 4 figures? and what about the britain pound? same as the euro?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #104
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:14pm Sep 4, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting Obaidah
yea but does that mean that they will not show any sign or changing directions? like going up 3 or 4 figures? and what about the britain pound? same as the euro?

They will show signs. I believe its best to wait how reaction would be around 1.33-1.38 area.

In my opinion, British economy is not way better than EU. They face similar issues.

Going up 3/4 figures is short term reactions, and should be watched day-to-day, and is impossible to pinpoint before.
  • #105
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:15pm Sep 4, 2008 4:15pm
I try to go, but HUGE moves during the newly opened Asian session.

Asian sessions look like will not put an end to USD buying. MASSIVE sell off in place.
  • #106
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:26pm Sep 4, 2008 4:26pm
thanks for your help
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #107
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:30pm Sep 4, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting Obaidah
thanks for your help

Please post your contributions and questions. Its always best to think on fundamentals.
  • #108
  • Sep 4, 2008 4:32pm Sep 4, 2008 4:32pm
Risk Aversion coming back?

Massive JPY buying, and AUD/NZD selling (likewise other high yielding currencies.)

With DOW settled up for another test around 10600 levels, JPY buying, it looks like there is another wave of risk pricing starting. Next couple of days and weeks should be very interesting.

Beware of the volatility, and don't leave position open for a long time. Massive volatility in the play.
  • #109
  • Sep 4, 2008 6:08pm Sep 4, 2008 6:08pm
who wanna hear something stupid?

still opened positions:

gbpcad buy @ 1.9752

usdchf sell @ 1.0860

eurgbp sell @ 0.8016

eurcad buy @ 1.5648

gbpusd buy @ 1.7820

was following a strategy which made a 300% capital growth per month but turned out to be a very bad strategy when there're changes, since i've lost like more than 60% of my account i'll hedge the whole account and only keep 1 unhedged and wait 'till it closes and when im done with it i'll start with another one but the thing is that i dont know by which one to start, which one has a good possibility, so is there any ideas?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #110
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:26am Sep 5, 2008 3:26am
EU session open:

Welcome to a day with massive volatility. The JPY/USD buying and AUD/NZD/TRL selling day started during the early Asian sesison consolidated for the most of the session. It looks like early birds at EU region are bringing the pairs to highs/lows again.

I would like to see the first 1-2 hours of the EU session before deciding to close some shorts in JPY pairs, and EUR/USD, GBP/USD etc...

SG
  • #111
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:29am Sep 5, 2008 3:29am
Quoting Obaidah
who wanna hear something stupid?

still opened positions:

gbpcad buy @ 1.9752

usdchf sell @ 1.0860

eurgbp sell @ 0.8016

eurcad buy @ 1.5648

gbpusd buy @ 1.7820

was following a strategy which made a 300% capital growth per month but turned out to be a very bad strategy when there're changes, since i've lost like more than 60% of my account i'll hedge the whole account and only keep 1 unhedged and wait 'till it closes and when im done with it i'll start with another one but the thing is that i dont know by which one to start, which one has a good possibility, so is there any ideas?

Most of the pairs have very high correlations, like GBP/USD will most likely move higher when USD/CHF lower, and EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD will act similar.

So its a question of what happens with the markets, JPY etc. If fore example JPY buying stops, and EUR/USD & GBP/USD looks like they find a base, I would say shorting USD/CHF is a no brainer. The opposite is currently ongoing, hence USD/CHF long is a sure thing.

Regarding CAD crosses, CAD has employment data today, hence could move EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD regardless of weakness in EUR and GBP.
  • #112
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:58am Sep 5, 2008 3:58am
Quoting preneur
Most of the pairs have very high correlations, like GBP/USD will most likely move higher when USD/CHF lower, and EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD will act similar.

So its a question of what happens with the markets, JPY etc. If fore example JPY buying stops, and EUR/USD & GBP/USD looks like they find a base, I would say shorting USD/CHF is a no brainer. The opposite is currently ongoing, hence USD/CHF long is a sure thing.

Regarding CAD crosses, CAD has employment data today, hence could move EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD regardless of weakness in EUR and GBP.
Hi,
what would be a secure take profit in shorting USD/CHF?
Thanks
  • #113
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:17am Sep 5, 2008 4:17am
Quoting marcb
Hi,
what would be a secure take profit in shorting USD/CHF?
Thanks

I would probably wait until the first couple of hours into the EU session before taking a short. Let's see if JPY buying stops.
  • #114
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:19am Sep 5, 2008 4:19am
USD/CHF

In order to give a sense of where the weak supports are, please see below:

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture15.jpg
  • #115
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:23am Sep 5, 2008 4:23am
USD/CHF

Here is the long term view

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture13.jpg
  • #116
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:34am Sep 5, 2008 4:34am
EU Session Opening Hours

Market is calming.

I decided to decrease exposure to USD and JPY longs; exiting some EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY ... shorts.

Will short them again if the Asian session lows give way for further declines.

Charts upcoming...
  • #117
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:34am Sep 5, 2008 4:34am
Quoting preneur
I would probably wait until the first couple of hours into the EU session before taking a short. Let's see if JPY buying stops.
Thanks,
how do you determine if JOY buying has stop?
  • #118
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:40am Sep 5, 2008 4:40am
Quoting marcb
Thanks,
how do you determine if JOY buying has stop?

After the initial rundown, the market will try to take all the run back. First hours of EU session pulls in enough volume to do that. Thats how I see it. There are no set rules to determine. I look at lows/highs.
  • #119
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:45am Sep 5, 2008 4:45am
EUR/AUD & GBP/AUD

Profit taking some longs. Decreasing the exposure to AUD short. Will load longs if the Asian and EU highs don't hold.

There might be some consolidation.

Please note the US employment data, which has more than enough gun power to smash through any resistance.
  • #120
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:54am Sep 5, 2008 4:54am
EUR/AUD

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...ncapture17.jpg
0 traders viewing now