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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #1,541
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:11am Sep 5, 2008 10:11am
Quoting Big1red9
With 4 positions running the loss mounts 4x faster as well. #5 seems to be in sight.
you're thinking about taking a 5th position? you mean when eurchf hits -0,25% ?
  • #1,542
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:26am Sep 5, 2008 10:26am
SORRY

I was wrong. Position 5 is after a .50% move not .25%.

Not saying what one should do. The trading rules call for up to 10 positions.


Quoting ashes
you're thinking about taking a 5th position? you mean when eurchf hits -0,25% ?
  • #1,543
  • Sep 5, 2008 10:34am Sep 5, 2008 10:34am
Quoting Big1red9
SORRY

I was wrong. Position 5 is after a .50% move not .25%.

Not saying what one should do. The trading rules call for up to 10 positions.
At this speed we dont need ten positions. Margin call helps you to get out.
  • #1,544
  • Sep 5, 2008 11:02am Sep 5, 2008 11:02am
According to my experience i would say that before wednesday ( i believe tuesday) we will have closed everything with a profit.

We could have closed the last lot at 159.20( juste hit this morning)

I was surprised by the reversal.
Now we are on our way
sorry for the fine tuning but i started to built a position on cable 3 days ago ( with an other system ) and i had to monitor a lot because i had a big position.
I could lighetd it in profit after the release of nfp.
Next week i am on a trip in europe so few trades.
trade safe

By the way if you are unconfortable with only 4 lots youd better put less leverage ( usually the 4 lots trades are big winners)
  • #1,545
  • Sep 5, 2008 9:49pm Sep 5, 2008 9:49pm
I told you we were on our way

I was supposed to close the last lot opened at 158.82 because we are up 0.80% but i still have my 4 lots long ( close now to the average price so no worry at all)

I am playing the fanny mac stuff ( if plan is set up this week end or beginning of next week some paires will be sold and chf is inside ) and the fact that we get a big decorrelation.
If on monday morning we start to go down again i will close the lot entered at 158.82.
So far everything is ok we get the swap for several days already , the closed candell is very nice , cannot see anything but a trend up next week.
Trade safe
  • #1,546
  • Sep 7, 2008 10:40am Sep 7, 2008 10:40am
Quoting spieler
I told you we were on our way

I was supposed to close the last lot opened at 158.82 because we are up 0.80% but i still have my 4 lots long ( close now to the average price so no worry at all)

I am playing the fanny mac stuff ( if plan is set up this week end or beginning of next week some paires will be sold and chf is inside ) and the fact that we get a big decorrelation.
If on monday morning we start to go down again i will close the lot entered at 158.82.
So far everything is ok we get the swap for several days already , the closed candell is very nice , cannot see anything but a trend up next week.
Trade safe
spieler-

Three questions please.

You should of closed your last lot at 159.22, will that still be your exit target should we start down again on Monday?

What is the fanny mac stuff

Will you be starting to give us some idea of how the fine tuning goes next week?

Thanks.
  • #1,547
  • Sep 7, 2008 4:07pm Sep 7, 2008 4:07pm
damn guys, lol did u see it ?? eur/chf at 1.6080 now , looooooooooooool
  • #1,548
  • Sep 7, 2008 4:20pm Sep 7, 2008 4:20pm
Major move in all the currencies I follow.

Quoting kingjaxe
damn guys, lol did u see it ?? eur/chf at 1.6080 now , looooooooooooool
  • #1,549
  • Edited 5:55pm Sep 7, 2008 4:23pm | Edited 5:55pm
1.6061 i am out the whole position with a huge profit
The fanie mac stuff worked
cash is king
  • #1,550
  • Sep 7, 2008 4:52pm Sep 7, 2008 4:52pm
I closed my USDCHF position, EURUSD TS 30, lets go.

Good night
  • #1,551
  • Sep 7, 2008 4:57pm Sep 7, 2008 4:57pm
Hi,
I also closed my long positions. they've well passed thursdays 0%. nice profit.

Regards
  • #1,552
  • Edited 5:26pm Sep 7, 2008 5:03pm | Edited 5:26pm
Closed all positions at EUR/Chf 1.5933. I want to sell, but will watch a bit.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,553
  • Sep 7, 2008 5:06pm Sep 7, 2008 5:06pm
Out at 1.6058

Nice!

Which MT4 broker starts the earliest?

Thanks
BR
  • #1,554
  • Sep 7, 2008 5:11pm Sep 7, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting ashes
Hi,

I've just opened the hedged pairs long at eur/chf -0,35% divergence 1,5985

edit 7 sep 23:00 gmt


eurusd 1,4389 close 1,4372 = -17 pips

usdchf 1,1108 close 1,1184 = +76 pips

let's wait and see


edit: 16:33 gmt

just opened 2nd position long at eur/chf-0,64% 1,5938

eurusd 1,4348 close 1,4372 = +24 pips

usdchf 1,1111 close 1,1184 = +73 pips


edit 19:16 gmt

opened 3rd position at eur/chf - 1,00% 1,5880

eurusd 1,4357 close 1,4372 = +15 pips

usdchf 1,1062 close 1,1184 = +122 pips


total:+293 pips -(6*10pips high market open spread) = + 233 pips


that's it, ... I won't open any more positions



Regards
.
  • #1,555
  • Sep 7, 2008 6:03pm Sep 7, 2008 6:03pm
Spieler, why do you think E/U gapped up instead of down? Isn't Fannie/Freddie bailout good for USD? I know nothing about fundamentals underlying price action.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #1,556
  • Sep 7, 2008 7:30pm Sep 7, 2008 7:30pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
Spieler, why do you think E/U gapped up instead of down? Isn't Fannie/Freddie bailout good for USD? I know nothing about fundamentals underlying price action.
I do not understand how the Fannie/Freddie bailout can gap up EURCHF. This bailout erodes shareholders value and EURUSD actually gap up and over the weekend? The news hasnt affected USDCHF so much.

I think EURCHF gap up is more to do with EURCHF being oversold. But we welcome the gap up anyway. =p
  • #1,557
  • Sep 7, 2008 7:48pm Sep 7, 2008 7:48pm
My opinion is that the bailout meant that the huge debt purchases worldwide were deemed safer.

I would think this had an impact as well... Saturday ECB President Trichet Spoke.

Rates held steady.

I think all currencies had a gap.
  • #1,558
  • Sep 7, 2008 9:18pm Sep 7, 2008 9:18pm
I think that this move is long term bullish for the dollar. However, over the short term it just looks like the U.S. economy is worse than people would like to think and could stay that way or get worse over the next 12 months. I would bet that this short term view coupled with the poor NFP on Friday have a lot to do with the gaps seen today.
  • #1,559
  • Sep 7, 2008 9:27pm Sep 7, 2008 9:27pm
Quoting mackus
Entered 4th and 5th long positions today. Nothing more fun that watching the EUR/CHF tank when you're long.
So far here is my trade:
1st 1.6216 8/25
2nd 1.6176 8/25
3rd 1.6026 9/3
4th 1.5984 9/4
5th 1.5906 9/4
Thankfully I've closed 3 positions in that time to book some profits. I can't wait to see the Euro recover these losses so we can close all these positions in profit.
Just closed all 5 positions for a small profit. Feels good to be all cash after such a huge run the opposite way last week.
Spieler,
I seem to remember you saying that the conservative approach is to use the lower/higher of the Friday close and Sunday open (depending on setting up for a long or short position) to set your 0% mark for the day. With such a large gap huge move right away what are you going to use for the base to calculate divergence?
  • #1,560
  • Sep 7, 2008 9:43pm Sep 7, 2008 9:43pm
Mackus... Are u mackanathan from NUS?
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